CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:15 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:It still depresses me so horsefeathering much that this country is run by a maniac idiot who thinks the ones thing that could have truly helped mitigate this is the thing causing the most harm (to him): testing. It's insane that there wasn't a top-down, all hands on deck push to have a quick national testing system in place. We're over nine horsefeathering months into this, and our testing options are as confusing and scattershot as garbage and recycling collection, and on the same nonsensical, wholly inefficient state by state/county by county/city by city standards, too.


It would really help if they mandated that the PCR tests be accessed using the normal cycle threshold and not under 40 cycles. Cutting corners isn’t the way to go about testing. This study showed that PCR tests that used under 40 cycles (as we and most of Europe are) have a 44% false positive rate! Even if the actual number is half that then we have a major problem. Inaccurate tests don’t do us any good in fighting this thing.

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfe ... 98-743X(20)30614-5/fulltext

As I posted a few pages ago, Germany and Austria require normal threshold cycles when using PCR tests...

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Translation?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:41 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:It still depresses me so horsefeathering much that this country is run by a maniac idiot who thinks the ones thing that could have truly helped mitigate this is the thing causing the most harm (to him): testing. It's insane that there wasn't a top-down, all hands on deck push to have a quick national testing system in place. We're over nine horsefeathering months into this, and our testing options are as confusing and scattershot as garbage and recycling collection, and on the same nonsensical, wholly inefficient state by state/county by county/city by city standards, too.


It would really help if they mandated that the PCR tests be accessed using the normal cycle threshold and not under 40 cycles. Cutting corners isn’t the way to go about testing. This study showed that PCR tests that used under 40 cycles (as we and most of Europe are) have a 44% false positive rate! Even if the actual number is half that then we have a major problem. Inaccurate tests don’t do us any good in fighting this thing.

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfe ... 98-743X(20)30614-5/fulltext

As I posted a few pages ago, Germany and Austria require normal threshold cycles when using PCR tests...

Image

Translation?


Positives per 100k over last 7 days
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:49 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Bold strategy, Cotton.



Is that the same place where the video of old horsefeathers in golf carts were driving in circles shouting "White Power"?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:10 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
It would really help if they mandated that the PCR tests be accessed using the normal cycle threshold and not under 40 cycles. Cutting corners isn’t the way to go about testing. This study showed that PCR tests that used under 40 cycles (as we and most of Europe are) have a 44% false positive rate! Even if the actual number is half that then we have a major problem. Inaccurate tests don’t do us any good in fighting this thing.

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfe ... 98-743X(20)30614-5/fulltext

As I posted a few pages ago, Germany and Austria require normal threshold cycles when using PCR tests...

Image

Translation?


Positives per 100k over last 7 days

No, sorry. What's the 40 cycle stuff?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:41 pm

The Logan wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Bold strategy, Cotton.



Is that the same place where the video of old horsefeathers in golf carts were driving in circles shouting "White Power"?

Sure is.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:15 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Translation?


Positives per 100k over last 7 days

No, sorry. What's the 40 cycle stuff?


It’s a bit over my head but in kindergarten terms, when they receive a test sample, the way to best detect it is to duplicate it (a cycle). But using more cycles is more time consuming and expensive and so most countries are only using 30-40 cycles. Virologists have been bitching for some time about how anything below 40 is far too low for accurate testing.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:00 am



In Kalamazoo, Mich., a stretch of land the size of a football field has been turned into a staging ground outfitted with 350 large freezers, ready to take delivery of millions of doses of Covid-19 vaccine before they can be shipped around the world.

The facility is a hub in the sprawling supply chain Pfizer Inc. has built to handle the delivery of a vaccine widely awaited as a possible relief from the coronavirus pandemic. The U.S. pharmaceutical giant says it wants to deliver up to 100 million doses this year and another 1.3 billion in 2021.


The New York-based drugmaker is working with Germany’s BioNTech SE on one of several experimental Covid-19 vaccines in late-stage testing. Pfizer says it may know whether its vaccine works by the end of October and that it could be ready to apply for emergency-use authorization of its Covid-19 vaccine by late November.


Feel like it's been a while since this thread had any good news, though obviously these companies are incentivized to glass-half-full any sort of projections or scenarios.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 3:27 am

OleMissCub wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Positives per 100k over last 7 days

No, sorry. What's the 40 cycle stuff?


It’s a bit over my head but in kindergarten terms, when they receive a test sample, the way to best detect it is to duplicate it (a cycle). But using more cycles is more time consuming and expensive and so most countries are only using 30-40 cycles. Virologists have been bitching for some time about how anything below 40 is far too low for accurate testing.


Other way around. The more amplification cycles you run, the lower the amount of virus you can detect. There was a NYT article quoting some biologists about a month ago saying they are shocked that so many places are running 35-40 cycles and that they wouldn't call anything over 30 a confirmed positive.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:16 am

I’m not sure the cycle thing really means anything. I mean, technically it means that a lot of people testing positive are either past their infectious stage or never had one, but we already knew that most infections don’t transmit and don’t make the person noticeably sick. Whether you call them cases or not doesn’t change a lot, and you can’t tell the high-cycle people they don’t have to quarantine because some of them will just be early in their progression and the virus will be more pervasive in their system in a couple of days.


Re: vaccines. We have been hearing since like June that late October was the hope for an early result allowing them to ask for an EUA, but *looks at calendar* it would have to come this week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:09 am

articles last week were saying Pfizer is on pace to submit for emergency authorization in Mid November
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 7:36 am

Brian wrote:articles last week were saying Pfizer is on pace to submit for emergency authorization in Mid November


What he said was that they would be on pace to submit in the third week of November *if* they got a positive safety and efficacy result in their trials by late October:

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/ ... ert_bourla
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Sun Oct 25, 2020 12:26 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:
The Logan wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Bold strategy, Cotton.



Is that the same place where the video of old horsefeathers in golf carts were driving in circles shouting "White Power"?

Sure is.


Oh, well it's time to thin out the herd then.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:41 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I’m not sure the cycle thing really means anything. I mean, technically it means that a lot of people testing positive are either past their infectious stage or never had one, but we already knew that most infections don’t transmit and don’t make the person noticeably sick. Whether you call them cases or not doesn’t change a lot, and you can’t tell the high-cycle people they don’t have to quarantine because some of them will just be early in their progression and the virus will be more pervasive in their system in a couple of days.

But is the implication the case rate is currently unreliable and possibly overstated?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:51 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I’m not sure the cycle thing really means anything. I mean, technically it means that a lot of people testing positive are either past their infectious stage or never had one, but we already knew that most infections don’t transmit and don’t make the person noticeably sick. Whether you call them cases or not doesn’t change a lot, and you can’t tell the high-cycle people they don’t have to quarantine because some of them will just be early in their progression and the virus will be more pervasive in their system in a couple of days.

But is the implication the case rate is currently unreliable and possibly overstated?


Sort of. These people all had virus in their system at some point. If you don’t call them cases anymore, then you get a lower case rate but a proportionally higher fatality and complication rate.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:09 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I’m not sure the cycle thing really means anything. I mean, technically it means that a lot of people testing positive are either past their infectious stage or never had one, but we already knew that most infections don’t transmit and don’t make the person noticeably sick. Whether you call them cases or not doesn’t change a lot, and you can’t tell the high-cycle people they don’t have to quarantine because some of them will just be early in their progression and the virus will be more pervasive in their system in a couple of days.

But is the implication the case rate is currently unreliable and possibly overstated?


If you don’t call them cases anymore, then you get a lower case rate but a proportionally higher fatality and complication rate.


So why is that a problem if it’s accurate?

Seems to me that if you have such a high false positive rate that we’d never get to a low enough amount of people testing positive for it to no longer be a pandemic. In other words, let’s just say that every active case disappeared overnight and never returned, we’d still be having thousands upon thousands of “positive” cases everyday for perpetuity depending on how many tests are administered.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:15 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:But is the implication the case rate is currently unreliable and possibly overstated?


If you don’t call them cases anymore, then you get a lower case rate but a proportionally higher fatality and complication rate.


So what’s the problem with that if it’s accurate?

Seems to me that if you have such a high false positive rate that we’d never get to a low enough amount of people testing positive for it to no longer be a pandemic. In other words, let’s just say that every active case disappeared overnight and never returned, we’d still be having thousands upon thousands of “positive” cases everyday for perpetuity depending on how many tests are administered.


I think you are misunderstanding what’s happening. These aren’t false positives in the sense that the virus isn’t there but the test thinks it is. They are situations where the virus is definitely present, but not in sufficient quantities to be dangerous or make the patient infectious at the time the sample was taken. If the virus disappeared tomorrow, we would not still have all those positives.

If you don’t want to label those as cases, fine, but it’s a semantic argument. If you changed the definition of a case that way, you have a pandemic with 1/10th as many cases but 10x the deadliness
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:19 pm

shouldn't we at least be getting some intermediate (not sure what they actually call it) data out of some of the candidates that have been running phase 3 for the past few months sometime soon?

i.e. safety data and antibody/t-cell response like the data we got in their phase 2 trials back in early summer/late spring.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:42 pm

happy anniversary

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:46 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I think you are misunderstanding what’s happening. These aren’t false positives in the sense that the virus isn’t there but the test thinks it is. They are situations where the virus is definitely present, but not in sufficient quantities to be dangerous or make the patient infectious at the time the sample was taken. If the virus disappeared tomorrow, we would not still have all those positives.

If you don’t want to label those as cases, fine, but it’s a semantic argument. If you changed the definition of a case that way, you have a pandemic with 1/10th as many cases but 10x the deadliness


I see. Well, I’d rather they not be classified as cases if they aren’t actual active cases or don’t have enough viral load to infect anyone. Think about the chaos that one of these false positives has on someone and their family or colleagues due to contact tracing and how all those people now have to quarantine and take off work or switch up parental responsibilities, etc.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:54 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I think you are misunderstanding what’s happening. These aren’t false positives in the sense that the virus isn’t there but the test thinks it is. They are situations where the virus is definitely present, but not in sufficient quantities to be dangerous or make the patient infectious at the time the sample was taken. If the virus disappeared tomorrow, we would not still have all those positives.

If you don’t want to label those as cases, fine, but it’s a semantic argument. If you changed the definition of a case that way, you have a pandemic with 1/10th as many cases but 10x the deadliness


I see. Well, I’d rather they not be classified as cases if they aren’t actual active cases or don’t have enough viral load to infect anyone. Think about the chaos that one of these false positives has on someone and their family or colleagues due to contact tracing and how all those people now have to quarantine and take off work or switch up parental responsibilities, etc.


The problem with that is that some of them are just in the early infection stage and will be quite sick and infectious in a few days. If someone only has a little bit of virus in their system, we don’t have a way to differentiate “just got infected and it’s about to blow up” from “it’s been there for awhile and the immune system is successfully suppressing it.”
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:49 pm

David wrote:shouldn't we at least be getting some intermediate (not sure what they actually call it) data out of some of the candidates that have been running phase 3 for the past few months sometime soon?

i.e. safety data and antibody/t-cell response like the data we got in their phase 2 trials back in early summer/late spring.


I’m not an expert, but I don’t think they are doing any unblinding until they reach the pre-planned read out intervals, so I don’t think then can release any preliminary data. They literally don’t know who has the vaccine and who has the placebo, that information is sealed from the people running the trial.

It’s just a matter of waiting until they reach the number of infections they wanted.
Last edited by Hairyducked Idiot on Sun Oct 25, 2020 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:50 pm

Brian wrote:happy anniversary



Just more proof the pandemic is a Democratic hoax!

*as I adjust my tinfoil hat in my mom's basement*
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:58 pm



It's good but it's not the "vaccine definitely works" we've been waiting for. We already knew it triggered an immune response in medium-aged adults, they just expanded it to a little younger and older.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:58 pm



It's good but it's not the "vaccine definitely works" we've been waiting for. We already knew it triggered an immune response in medium-aged adults, they just expanded it to a little younger and older.
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