CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:00 pm

I liked that someone mentioned that this is considered a good sign that the other vaccines in the pipeline probably also work, because they all attack on the same vector.

My early analysis still stands, though. Unless America gets its collective head out of its collective posterior very quickly, a vaccine next spring is a hat on a hat situation.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:07 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
David wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Travis_Sawchik/status/1325796965037338624?s=19

This is the first mention I've seen of specific timelines people would start getting it.


wouldn't end of second quarter be early summer/late spring (i.e. june)


Maybe a fiscal v. calendar year thing.

pfizer released its 2nd quarter earning in late July, accounting for activity through the end of June.

Talking about things expected to occur in late 2nd quarter has to take into account it will actually occur in early third quarter, which would be July/August and considered late summer. I think it's a bit of semantics and not particularly meaningful distinction.

It's gonna be a while, but it's gonna be.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby stitchface » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:09 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
David wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Travis_Sawchik/status/1325796965037338624?s=19

This is the first mention I've seen of specific timelines people would start getting it.


wouldn't end of second quarter be early summer/late spring (i.e. june)


Maybe a fiscal v. calendar year thing.


Federal fiscal end of second quarter would be March.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:11 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I liked that someone mentioned that this is considered a good sign that the other vaccines in the pipeline probably also work, because they all attack on the same vector.


yeah, i mean i've honestly figured most of them that we've seen data on would work based on the antibody and t-cell responses and that "proving" them effective in the wild was probably going to be a formality eventually (not 100% but just what i was expecting).

there are gonna be a lot of doses of effective vaccines coming on at the same time IMO. like a hell of a lot.

still frustrates me to see a couple of storylines out there that are used to cast doubt on this one. one is "there's never been a coronavirus vaccine before." ok, well, that's because we just live with them because they usually just result in the common cold. and the other is "not even flu vaccines are that effective"... well that's bc they pick a couple strains that they think will be the most dangerous and the most common and they protect against those... we already know what the specific target is and as far as i know, not only is it unlikely to mutate to the point that we'd lose protection against it, but we are probably at least partially protected by infection by other viruses that kinda resemble it a little bit.

at least that is my very general understanding of it all. feel free to tell me if i'm a moron. i just let myself get riled up when i read someone's "this is never ending, we might as well just learn to live with it, they have never produced a vaccine for a coronavirus and it takes decades to produce vaccines!" post on facebook.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:31 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I liked that someone mentioned that this is considered a good sign that the other vaccines in the pipeline probably also work, because they all attack on the same vector.


yeah, i mean i've honestly figured most of them that we've seen data on would work based on the antibody and t-cell responses and that "proving" them effective in the wild was probably going to be a formality eventually (not 100% but just what i was expecting).

there are gonna be a lot of doses of effective vaccines coming on at the same time IMO. like a hell of a lot.

still frustrates me to see a couple of storylines out there that are used to cast doubt on this one. one is "there's never been a coronavirus vaccine before." ok, well, that's because we just live with them because they usually just result in the common cold. and the other is "not even flu viruses are that effective"... well that's bc they pick a couple strains that they think will be the most dangerous and the most common and they protect against those... we already know what the specific target is and as far as i know, not only is it unlikely to mutate to the point that we'd lose protection against it, but we are probably at least partially protected by infection to other viruses that kinda resemble it a little bit.

at least that is my very general understanding of it all. feel free to tell me if i'm a moron. i just let myself get riled up when i read someone's "this is never ending, we might as well just learn to live with it, they have never produced a vaccine for a coronavirus and it takes decades to produce vaccines!" post on facebook.


The internet has been really good at picking out random factoids that make things sound worse than they are. Because the internet is full of shut-in depressives. Well, I guess there's also a lot of jerks picking out random factoids to make it sound like it's no big deal, but I tend to ignore them so I don't notice.

You can't even use the phrase "herd immunity" anymore without people frothing at the mouth about how you can't have it without a vaccine, which is kind of true, because it's not a really well-defined term, and it's usually used to describe why people who can't take a vaccine because of a compromised immune system are still protected when everyone else has the vaccine. But that doesn't mean there isn't an effect where the fact that your population is building up immune protection through infection doesn't eventually squeeze the life out of a pandemic. What generally happens is the disease slows down to a crawl, popping up here and there when it finds a new crop of young people to infect. It's called "endemic equilibrium," and for the purposes of "when are we going to be done with this @#%!% pandemic?!" it's functionally the same as herd immunity. It doesn't mean that there will never be a case of it again, but it doesn't mean that we won't have to keep charts measuring cases in the thousands.

Or all the confusion over whether immunity lasts or if reinfection is possible. Every time you get one case of reinfection, someone comes along to say "Well, that's it, immunity is impossible, we're all screwed." Then it turns out the person had basically no immune system due to some problem. If immunity was impossible, then it would have a 100% fatality rate, because your immune system fighting it off is how you recover. It doesn't just decide to stop replicating on its own. And your immune system doesn't declare victory one day, send everyone home, and then be completely befuddled by the very same virus the very next day, that's nonsensical.

"We don't know what kind of side-effects there will be down the road." I mean, technically true. In science, we know things that we can observe, and you can't observe what happens after a year for a virus that first emerged 10-11 months ago. But we have some pretty good priors based on how every other disease works.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:31 pm

Serious people addressing a serious problem. Nice for a change.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:33 pm

Looks a little different than the current task force. Though I wonder if the low number so far is to make a way to keep people like Cuccinelli, Kudlow, or Mnuchin on the panel.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:34 pm

A real world scenario for all of this. My sister is a cardiac stroke nurse at Javon Bae hospital in Rockford. Today every nurse on the floor was exposed to two covid patients for 1.5 hours because no one bothered to tell the nurses they needed to be in airborne rooms. So rather than send them home, they are now all being quarantined together, still working on patients because the hospital is critically undermanned and completely out of rooms. They have 30 people waiting in the ED,12 of whom have covid and no place to put them. Elgin is currently scrambling to put together an emergency covid center. Things are getting real bad.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:35 pm

Not sure why LIndsey Graham's stunt man is on that panel
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:36 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:Looks a little different than the current task force. Though I wonder if the low number so far is to make a way to keep people like Cuccinelli, Kudlow, or Mnuchin on the panel.



WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT...DOCTORS???????
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby bukie » Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:45 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:Looks a little different than the current task force. Though I wonder if the low number so far is to make a way to keep people like Cuccinelli, Kudlow, or Mnuchin on the panel.



WAIT WAIT WAIT WAIT...DOCTORS???????

Not even one pillow magnate.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SouthSideRyan » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:12 pm

Tryptamine wrote:A real world scenario for all of this. My sister is a cardiac stroke nurse at Javon Bae hospital in Rockford. Today every nurse on the floor was exposed to two covid patients for 1.5 hours because no one bothered to tell the nurses they needed to be in airborne rooms. So rather than send them home, they are now all being quarantined together, still working on patients because the hospital is critically undermanned and completely out of rooms. They have 30 people waiting in the ED,12 of whom have covid and no place to put them. Elgin is currently scrambling to put together an emergency covid center. Things are getting real bad.


My fiancee is an ICU nurse and they are only allowed to be out sick if they are symptomatic positive. So a positive COVID test(for which they are not getting tested for) is not sufficient for them to stop working.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:15 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:A real world scenario for all of this. My sister is a cardiac stroke nurse at Javon Bae hospital in Rockford. Today every nurse on the floor was exposed to two covid patients for 1.5 hours because no one bothered to tell the nurses they needed to be in airborne rooms. So rather than send them home, they are now all being quarantined together, still working on patients because the hospital is critically undermanned and completely out of rooms. They have 30 people waiting in the ED,12 of whom have covid and no place to put them. Elgin is currently scrambling to put together an emergency covid center. Things are getting real bad.


My fiancee is an ICU nurse and they are only allowed to be out sick if they are symptomatic positive. So a positive COVID test(for which they are not getting tested for) is not sufficient for them to stop working.


Yup, exact same scenario here. I can't imagine this not leading to numerous lawsuits where multiple patients are infected while being in a weakened state and die as a result.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CoolHandLuke » Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:20 pm

Tryptamine wrote:A real world scenario for all of this. My sister is a cardiac stroke nurse at Javon Bae hospital in Rockford. Today every nurse on the floor was exposed to two covid patients for 1.5 hours because no one bothered to tell the nurses they needed to be in airborne rooms. So rather than send them home, they are now all being quarantined together, still working on patients because the hospital is critically undermanned and completely out of rooms. They have 30 people waiting in the ED,12 of whom have covid and no place to put them. Elgin is currently scrambling to put together an emergency covid center. Things are getting real bad.


Completely off topic, but I was absolutely shocked when I first saw a picture of Javon Bea.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Rob » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:05 pm

I tested negative. Still waiting on results on the wife and girls, but I was by far the most likely vector to infect them. So odds are good there.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:40 pm

I'm gonna roll back some of my earlier pessimism and say that if Pfizer really can get an EUA by the end of November and 25 million people started (50 million doses at 2 doses each) by the end of December, that's not too shabby in terms of slowing it down. The second dose is just a booster, so there should be some immune effect even before then.

The wave in-progress is still going to be absolutely awful, but it should be our last one.

Edit: wait, that's 25 million globally, I don't know how much goes straight to US. But it's still a good start.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian707 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:01 pm

Probably a dumb question but my wife's friend and huge Trumper-Trump boat party enthusiast-anti vaxxer has always said she will refuse a vaccine. Will the government tell businesses to refuse service to these people at say restaurants or a sporting event or public school after the public has received the vaccine?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:13 pm

Brian707 wrote:Probably a dumb question but my wife's friend and huge Trumper-Trump boat party enthusiast-anti vaxxer has always said she will refuse a vaccine. Will the government tell businesses to refuse service to these people at say restaurants or a sporting event or public school after the public has received the vaccine?


Kind of a silly hypothetical IMO. How would anyone in the public know who has and hasn’t been vaccinated?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:17 pm

But, in theory (and maybe a dumb question), if you've been vaccinated but someone else has not, aren't you thereby immune to them spreading it to you? Wouldn't they only be in danger of spreading/contracting it with others who have not gotten the vaccine?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Banedon » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:36 pm

The Logan wrote:But, in theory (and maybe a dumb question), if you've been vaccinated but someone else has not, aren't you thereby immune to them spreading it to you? Wouldn't they only be in danger of spreading/contracting it with others who have not gotten the vaccine?


So the vaccine that's being touted today....doesn't prevent you from getting covid. It prevents 90% of the symptoms. So you can still get it....you can still spread it...

And getting rid of the symptoms is a *good* thing....but it's not the miracle that everyone wants.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:59 pm

Banedon wrote:
The Logan wrote:But, in theory (and maybe a dumb question), if you've been vaccinated but someone else has not, aren't you thereby immune to them spreading it to you? Wouldn't they only be in danger of spreading/contracting it with others who have not gotten the vaccine?


So the vaccine that's being touted today....doesn't prevent you from getting covid. It prevents 90% of the symptoms. So you can still get it....you can still spread it...


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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:59 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm gonna roll back some of my earlier pessimism and say that if Pfizer really can get an EUA by the end of November and 25 million people started (50 million doses at 2 doses each) by the end of December, that's not too shabby in terms of slowing it down. The second dose is just a booster, so there should be some immune effect even before then.

The wave in-progress is still going to be absolutely awful, but it should be our last one.

Edit: wait, that's 25 million globally, I don't know how much goes straight to US. But it's still a good start.

Kyle, you’ve been winging this horsefeathers for half a year and wrong the entire time so don’t worry about it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:12 pm

Banedon wrote:
The Logan wrote:But, in theory (and maybe a dumb question), if you've been vaccinated but someone else has not, aren't you thereby immune to them spreading it to you? Wouldn't they only be in danger of spreading/contracting it with others who have not gotten the vaccine?


So the vaccine that's being touted today....doesn't prevent you from getting covid. It prevents 90% of the symptoms. So you can still get it....you can still spread it...

And getting rid of the symptoms is a *good* thing....but it's not the miracle that everyone wants.


That's unclear. It would be very weird for it to prevent you from having symptoms and have no effect on transmission at all.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:14 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm gonna roll back some of my earlier pessimism and say that if Pfizer really can get an EUA by the end of November and 25 million people started (50 million doses at 2 doses each) by the end of December, that's not too shabby in terms of slowing it down. The second dose is just a booster, so there should be some immune effect even before then.

The wave in-progress is still going to be absolutely awful, but it should be our last one.

Edit: wait, that's 25 million globally, I don't know how much goes straight to US. But it's still a good start.

Kyle, you’ve been winging this horsefeathers for half a year and wrong the entire time so don’t worry about it.


That is absolutely true. I don't know why people are all like "Kyle you made me feel so much better during the virus thread."

I thought there was no chance this thing lasted past like early June. idiot's right there in the name for a reason.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:19 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Banedon wrote:
The Logan wrote:But, in theory (and maybe a dumb question), if you've been vaccinated but someone else has not, aren't you thereby immune to them spreading it to you? Wouldn't they only be in danger of spreading/contracting it with others who have not gotten the vaccine?


So the vaccine that's being touted today....doesn't prevent you from getting covid. It prevents 90% of the symptoms. So you can still get it....you can still spread it...

And getting rid of the symptoms is a *good* thing....but it's not the miracle that everyone wants.


That's unclear. It would be very weird for it to prevent you from having symptoms and have no effect on transmission at all.


Mainly it's him reading/hearing that the 90% refers to preventing 90% of the symptoms that is flat out wrong. Their claim is that it is 90% effective in preventing COVID-19.
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