CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:41 am

I think perversely, we're going to be one of the first countries to be able to return to normalcy as the vaccine slowly get distributed. First, because we made sure we're at the front of the line. But mostly because we failed so utterly at containing it that we already have way more natural immunity than most places.

I really miss covid19-projections for their estimate of how many true infection we've had. But conservatively, we should be at ~25 percent infected by now, maybe even 30 percent. We should easily hit 30 percent by Christmas at minimum. Even at the most pessimistic estimations of herd immunity thresholds, we're going to be halfway there before the first set of people get their second vaccine dose in late January.

All it cost us was hundreds of thousands of lives.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:46 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I think perversely, we're going to be one of the first countries to be able to return to normalcy as the vaccine slowly get distributed. First, because we made sure we're at the front of the line. But mostly because we failed so utterly at containing it that we already have way more natural immunity than most places.

I really miss covid19-projections for their estimate of how many true infection we've had. But conservatively, we should be at ~25 percent infected by now, maybe even 30 percent. We should easily hit 30 percent by Christmas at minimum. Even at the most pessimistic estimations of herd immunity thresholds, we're going to be halfway there before the first set of people get their second vaccine dose in late January.

All it cost us was hundreds of thousands of lives.


It's beyond horsefeathering criminal when this all said and done the sheer number of people who will genuinely have takes along the lines of, "it wasn't that bad; only 400,000 people died! Not even half a mill! Plus they were mostly old or sick to begin with! We shut down for nothing!" Nevermind that a legit top down approach to contain it could have literally saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

Short of that fat horsefeathers accidentally launching a nuke, this is pretty horsefeathering way up there in terms of worse case scenarios for any horsefeathers head who saw Trump running for president and thought, "meh...what's the worst that could happen?" I honestly can't think about it for too long without feeling like I'm kind of losing my mind a little.
Last edited by Sammy Sofa on Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:47 am

I'm also completely fascinated by the mRNA technology and what it means for future viruses. They had multiple working vaccines for this virus within *weeks* of the world recognizing the threat it posed. It's just been about proving their safety and effectiveness since then.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:49 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I'm also completely fascinated by the mRNA technology and what it means for future viruses. They had multiple working vaccines for this virus within *weeks* of the world recognizing the threat it posed. It's just been about proving their safety and effectiveness since ten.


The internet was a mistake: I've already come across a number of takes in the last week along the lines of, "these new vaccines are TOO promising; this technology will lead to saving TOO many lives."
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:03 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I think perversely, we're going to be one of the first countries to be able to return to normalcy as the vaccine slowly get distributed. First, because we made sure we're at the front of the line. But mostly because we failed so utterly at containing it that we already have way more natural immunity than most places.

I really miss covid19-projections for their estimate of how many true infection we've had. But conservatively, we should be at ~25 percent infected by now, maybe even 30 percent. We should easily hit 30 percent by Christmas at minimum. Even at the most pessimistic estimations of herd immunity thresholds, we're going to be halfway there before the first set of people get their second vaccine dose in late January.

All it cost us was hundreds of thousands of lives.


May I ask how you're extrapolating 11M positive cases to 25-30% infected (82M-100M infected)???
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Banedon » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:04 am

Do we know for sure that having had Covid already makes you immune or less likely to get it again?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:12 am

Derwood wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I think perversely, we're going to be one of the first countries to be able to return to normalcy as the vaccine slowly get distributed. First, because we made sure we're at the front of the line. But mostly because we failed so utterly at containing it that we already have way more natural immunity than most places.

I really miss covid19-projections for their estimate of how many true infection we've had. But conservatively, we should be at ~25 percent infected by now, maybe even 30 percent. We should easily hit 30 percent by Christmas at minimum. Even at the most pessimistic estimations of herd immunity thresholds, we're going to be halfway there before the first set of people get their second vaccine dose in late January.

All it cost us was hundreds of thousands of lives.


May I ask how you're extrapolating 11M positive cases to 25-30% infected (82M-100M infected)???


Pretty much exactly what it looks like: true infections are probably ~8x detected cases. The vast majority of infections go undetected, either because they're asymptomatic or because they choose not to get tested for various reasons.

The CDC was estimating a 10x multiplier this summer: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... 0-n1232134

COVID19-projections was trying to infer the multiplier from deaths and test positivity before they shut down, and they had it at around 8x in September.

It *might* as low as 6x right now, but since most of our cases are in red states that don't like to test enough, I doubt it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:15 am

Banedon wrote:Do we know for sure that having had Covid already makes you immune or less likely to get it again?


Yes:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... e-response

The idea that there might not be immunity was one of those irresponsible memes that took hold because

1) Scientists to say they aren't "sure" about things that they know are almost certainly true but haven't been directly proven by a variety of repeatable studies

2) Saying "well, we don't know if there's immunity" has been a good way to deflect pushes to let people who have been infected run around with no restrictions, which would be a logistical nightmae.

3) Acknowledging that immunity exists has been caught up in the stupid h*** i****** was

The human immune system is complicated and in some people it doesn't work right. So for literally any disease that we think of as conferring immunity, there's some number of people who can/will be reinfected. But there's no reason so far to think that COVID doesn't work like the rest of them, where almost everyone will be immune for awhile and resistant even after that.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:24 am

It's funny, I've noticed this a lot in liberal-leaning spaces on the internet:

If I say: Oh God, thanks to Trump, North Dakota is a nightmare! And Sturgis, how could they have let this happen? They've got 65k official cases, but look at how inadequate their testing is! It's probably way more than that, they're just trying to keep the numbers down. They've probably got 6-10x as many cases as they are admitting. (although 10x in North Dakota would basically be everybody, granted).

Then everyone nods along.

If I say: Given that most cases are asymptomatic and testing is insufficient, we should estimate 6-10x as many true infections as detected cases, which means that XX% of the population is infected and will result in a drop in transmission rates over a naive population.

Well, now I sound like a dirty herd-immunity-er employing voodoo math.

Even though it's the exact same idea.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:07 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:not even kidding...when i saw that post, it occurred to me to reply to it, and then i was like "i'll just let those two nerds mojo and kyle handle this" bc i didn't know where to begin and they would say it better than i could

even then, i did not expect all that


Please remember that I am an idiot and did not expect this pandemic to last more than a month or two.


Yeah, I'm just stumbling along trying to best parrot the stuff I have access to through work. Basically it's an exercise in trying to stay sane while the world falls apart.


call it whatever you want, it makes for interesting reading with a decent amount of depth beyond what's in the majority of the media.

i just don't have it in me at this point to follow vaccine/COVID conversations on reddit or something like that. i'm bad enough as it is. i would get way too wrapped up in it. the level of discussion in here is somewhere between there and the nonsense that goes on on twitter and it hits sort of a sweet spot.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:33 am

I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:35 am

UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.

horsefeathers - hope it's a mild case
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:49 am

Tim wrote:
UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.

horsefeathers - hope it's a mild case


It feels like it is. I know it can kill those who have good health although rare. But, between having good health, taking care of myself, having O - blood type, etc. I'll be fine. I'm more worried about my mom who I visited 8 days ago (we both wore masks and kept distances).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Tue Nov 17, 2020 2:55 pm

Has there been any detailed plan, or speculation, about how people will be RE-vaccinated after a period of time? Do we even know what that timeframe is? I'm sure most of the focus right now is on the initial rollout, and rightly so, but there must also be a longer term plan for keeping people vaccinated to prevent a resurgence.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby big ball chunky time » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:00 pm

UK wrote:
Tim wrote:
UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.

horsefeathers - hope it's a mild case


It feels like it is. I know it can kill those who have good health although rare. But, between having good health, taking care of myself, having O - blood type, etc. I'll be fine. I'm more worried about my mom who I visited 8 days ago (we both wore masks and kept distances).


my advice - when the fatigue kicks in, just go along with it. I was lucky enough that the first few days after the pain resided I was able to just hide in my office and crash a few times a day when the fatigue would start. It's unreal how exhausted you get.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:08 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:Has there been any detailed plan, or speculation, about how people will be RE-vaccinated after a period of time? Do we even know what that timeframe is? I'm sure most of the focus right now is on the initial rollout, and rightly so, but there must also be a longer term plan for keeping people vaccinated to prevent a resurgence.


I try to keep up-to-date on this stuff, because I'm in a higher risk group and also because of my profession. I've heard nothing about ongoing vaccination, and nothing scientifically proven about length of immunity.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:34 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:Has there been any detailed plan, or speculation, about how people will be RE-vaccinated after a period of time? Do we even know what that timeframe is? I'm sure most of the focus right now is on the initial rollout, and rightly so, but there must also be a longer term plan for keeping people vaccinated to prevent a resurgence.


it might just become like the flu shot where you're supposed to get it every year, but given that this is one specific novel virus (not like influenza where they identify different strains to protect against as time goes on) and that we know there is a t-cell response (which tends to imply some degree of lasting immunity/protection), just being vaccinated once might be enough to at least prevent severe outcomes going forward.

that is my ham-fisted guess though and i could be totally wrong
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:57 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
UK wrote:
Tim wrote:horsefeathers - hope it's a mild case


It feels like it is. I know it can kill those who have good health although rare. But, between having good health, taking care of myself, having O - blood type, etc. I'll be fine. I'm more worried about my mom who I visited 8 days ago (we both wore masks and kept distances).


my advice - when the fatigue kicks in, just go along with it. I was lucky enough that the first few days after the pain resided I was able to just hide in my office and crash a few times a day when the fatigue would start. It's unreal how exhausted you get.


Yeah, it is something how tired I've been. The only thing that concerns me is the shortness of breath, I'm monitoring my oxygen levels hourly, so far so good.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:42 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:Has there been any detailed plan, or speculation, about how people will be RE-vaccinated after a period of time? Do we even know what that timeframe is? I'm sure most of the focus right now is on the initial rollout, and rightly so, but there must also be a longer term plan for keeping people vaccinated to prevent a resurgence.


Lots of speculation, way too early for a detailed plan.

The range of possibilities covers "no one will ever think about COVID again other than adding it to the routine list of childhood immunizations" to "high-risk people get it once a year like a flu shot."
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:57 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/heal ... unity.html


More evidence that is he immune system works and we can drop all this “maybe there’s no immunity or it goes away quickly” schtick
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:45 pm

Stand by for the first 200,000+ new case day in the US being reported tomorrow morning.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:25 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Stand by for the first 200,000+ new case day in the US being reported tomorrow morning.


Even if you think we’ve got detection down to 1 in 3 infections, which I think is wildly optimistic, that would be about 1.3% of the population per week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:43 am

Seems like pretty big and important news/progress. Posting without reading though.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:01 pm

Well if this doesn't lift your spirits...

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:22 pm

I'm curious if anyone has seen this where they live, since I discovered it in the summer I've been regularly checking the regional hospital capacity statistics provided by the state as a barometer for adjusting my own behavior. Our area has seen a huge spike in cases for a long enough period of time that hospitalizations have followed, but the reported remaining capacity has barely budged, saying that greater St. Louis bed occupancy is in the 55-60% range. I can understand that as cases go up, non-covid hospitalizations likely will drop to account for this, but surely not to the same proportion with as fast as cases grew. Any other ideas why capacity issues haven't cropped up? I'm not complaining by any stretch, but if that's not an accurate barometer then I certainly don't want to rely on it.
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