CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:30 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Nov 18, 2020 5:14 pm

NYC's positivity rates remain relatively low w/a bit of an uptick in the fall...

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus- ... c-new-york

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Wed Nov 18, 2020 6:58 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I'm curious if anyone has seen this where they live, since I discovered it in the summer I've been regularly checking the regional hospital capacity statistics provided by the state as a barometer for adjusting my own behavior. Our area has seen a huge spike in cases for a long enough period of time that hospitalizations have followed, but the reported remaining capacity has barely budged, saying that greater St. Louis bed occupancy is in the 55-60% range. I can understand that as cases go up, non-covid hospitalizations likely will drop to account for this, but surely not to the same proportion with as fast as cases grew. Any other ideas why capacity issues haven't cropped up? I'm not complaining by any stretch, but if that's not an accurate barometer then I certainly don't want to rely on it.


It might be that there are levers that the government can pull to expand capacity? That's what it looks like for Illinois. See the chart on the bottom-left of this page

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/ho ... tilization

In May, when the graph starts, there were ~30K hospital beds in total. In June, that jumped to ~34. So even though more people are hospitalized now than the spring peak (both Covid and non-Covid), there's a similar number of open beds to the spring.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:41 pm

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-testing-arizona-county-shows-10-residents-covid/story?id=74251218

This was interesting. Maricopa County completed an antibody study and found that there are likely 4x the number of infections vs. the reported cases. It works out to about 10.7% of the county has already had COVID-19.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Nov 19, 2020 12:52 am

Soul wrote:https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-testing-arizona-county-shows-10-residents-covid/story?id=74251218

This was interesting. Maricopa County completed an antibody study and found that there are likely 4x the number of infections vs. the reported cases. It works out to about 10.7% of the county has already had COVID-19.


I believe the actual sampling for that study was done in early September. It would be notably higher right now as cases are rising. If the 4:1 ratio still holds, they're adding about 1.3% per week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:16 am

Attn: Kyle - I know you were lamenting that he stopped updating his model

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:45 am

Bertz wrote:Attn: Kyle - I know you were lamenting that he stopped updating his model



I saw that and am excited. But his new version estimates lower prevalence (16% nationally) so boo to that but hooray in general.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Wilson A2000 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:23 am

Anyone worried that the vaccine might not work against the mink mutation, the cluster 5 virus?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:56 am

Wilson A2000 wrote:Anyone worried that the vaccine might not work against the mink mutation, the cluster 5 virus?


No. There's little showing that that strain has actually spread significantly through any human population (and might actually be essentially extinct already on our end), and those who have had it only show slightly reduced antibody response (about 15% at worse). Their T and B cell response is still as robust and lasting as those who have had other strains, and the people that got it (maybe a couple dozen at the most) only did because they would have been exposed to massive amounts of the virus because they are mink farm workers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03218-z

This is a great researcher/column to follow regarding the vaccine development:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... sibilities

What about coronavirus mutations? Will the virus move out from under the vaccine’s targeting?

The SARS-Cov-2 virus has indeed been throwing off mutations, but all viruses do. They replicate quickly, and errors pile up. Fortunately, though, none of these have proven to be a problem so far. There’s been a lot of talk about the D614G mutation being more infectious, but the difficulty of proving that shows that it’s certainly not way more infectious, if it is at all. And it doesn’t seem to have a noticeable effect on disease severity – so far, no mutation has.

The recent news from Denmark about a multi-residue mutant (“Cluster 5”) that might be less susceptible to the antibodies raised by the current vaccines is a real concern, but the news there, thus far, is also reassuring. The vaccine efficacy warning might be true, but it was also based on a small amount of preliminary data. And the Cluster-5 variant has not been detected since September, which suggests that (if anything) this combination of mutations actually might make the virus less likely to spread. From what we’ve been seeing with the Spike protein, evading the current antibodies looks like it’s going to be difficult to do while retaining infectiousness at the same time. We already know from a Pfizer analysis that many of the common mutations are just as susceptible to neutralizing antibodies raised by their vaccine. Update: here’s an effort to monitor the developing mutations to keep an eye out for just these issues.

I know that many people are wondering about the similarity to influenza, and to the yearly (and not always incredibly effective) flu vaccines. Flu viruses, though, change their proteins far more easily and thoroughly than the coronavirus does, which is why we need a new vaccine every year to start with. SARS-Cov-2 doesn’t have anything like that mix-and-match mechanism, and it’s a damn good thing.

Bottom line: the coronavirus can’t undergo the wholesale changes that we see with the influenza viruses. And the mutations we’re seeing so far appear to still be under the umbrella of the antibody protection we’ll be raising with vaccination, which argues that it’s difficult to escape it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby TruffleShuffle » Thu Nov 19, 2020 10:10 am

we need gulags.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Thu Nov 19, 2020 1:48 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:we need gulags.


Depending on what they mean by "supervisors", that may still be hourly employees.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Thu Nov 19, 2020 2:02 pm

Tim wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:we need gulags.


Depending on what they mean by "supervisors", that may still be hourly employees.

We still need gulags, though.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby big ball chunky time » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:07 pm

UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.


How are you doing at this point? I'm on day 9 of symptoms and they're mainly resigned to a 3-4 hour bout of headaches, fatigue and nausea every afternoon. I took another test today, hoping it's negative and I can come out of quarantine.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:11 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.


How are you doing at this point? I'm on day 9 of symptoms and they're mainly resigned to a 3-4 hour bout of headaches, fatigue and nausea every afternoon. I took another test today, hoping it's negative and I can come out of quarantine.


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Hang in there, man. What did your doctor suggest you take to help manage the symptoms?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby big ball chunky time » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:14 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.


How are you doing at this point? I'm on day 9 of symptoms and they're mainly resigned to a 3-4 hour bout of headaches, fatigue and nausea every afternoon. I took another test today, hoping it's negative and I can come out of quarantine.


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Hang in there, man. What did your doctor suggest you take to help manage the symptoms?


I dunno, I got a whole bevy of horsefeathers. Vitamin D, zinc, melatonin. I dont know. I just pop them and pee green for a couple hours and go to sleep.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:18 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
How are you doing at this point? I'm on day 9 of symptoms and they're mainly resigned to a 3-4 hour bout of headaches, fatigue and nausea every afternoon. I took another test today, hoping it's negative and I can come out of quarantine.


Image

Hang in there, man. What did your doctor suggest you take to help manage the symptoms?


I dunno, I got a whole bevy of horsefeathers. Vitamin D, zinc, melatonin. I dont know. I just pop them and pee green for a couple hours and go to sleep.


Sounds like they have you on an at-home variation of the MATH+ treatment approach, which is good. If they didn't give you any Famotidine, have someone pick up some for you from the drugstore. Ideally the 20 mg pills, and take one pill twice a day:

https://www.cvs.com/shop/cvs-health-max ... id-1280197

Worst case scenario is you only have less heartburn.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:25 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
UK wrote:I just recd an email 30 mins ago that I tested positive.


How are you doing at this point? I'm on day 9 of symptoms and they're mainly resigned to a 3-4 hour bout of headaches, fatigue and nausea every afternoon. I took another test today, hoping it's negative and I can come out of quarantine.


Tired, still can't smell, can't catch my breath when walking around the backyard. I have an unusual headache that comes in waves, it feels like someone is just digging their knuckle on the top right side of my skull. I'm about on day 9 as well at least when I felt cold-like symptoms last Tuesday.

Our local health dept. is stating I have spend 2 weeks apart from family from the last time I was in contact (Mon). However, work is mandating anyone who tests positive go back to work 10 days after the symptoms, it'll be interesting going back to work but not being able to see my family for another week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:59 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
How are you doing at this point? I'm on day 9 of symptoms and they're mainly resigned to a 3-4 hour bout of headaches, fatigue and nausea every afternoon. I took another test today, hoping it's negative and I can come out of quarantine.


Image

Hang in there, man. What did your doctor suggest you take to help manage the symptoms?


I dunno, I got a whole bevy of horsefeathers. Vitamin D, zinc, melatonin. I dont know. I just pop them and pee green for a couple hours and go to sleep.

At the beginning of all this a family friend who is a ENT doctor recommended that regimen. Said you should be doing some coldeeze/zinc and vitamin D daily and then melatonin if it doesn’t make you too drowsy to function even if you don’t have it and it can help fight it/minimize affects. So I’ve made sure to load up on zinc and D supplements when I do my bi-weekly store runs. Melatonin is weird for me. It makes me drowsy for 1-2 days after so I try not to take it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:06 pm

Yeah, melatonin deficiency has kind of sneakily become the other big thing besides low vitamin D medical professionals are theorizing might make people more susceptible to the "immune system goes into overdrive" aspect of catching COVID. Apparently melatonin specifically can significantly help with managing inflammation throughout the body.

And you don't need to go crazy with the vitamin D; just a standard daily dose will do, unless your bloodwork says you need something stronger.
Last edited by Sammy Sofa on Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:10 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Yeah, melatonin deficiency has kind of sneakily become the other big thing besides low vitamin D medical professionals are theorizing might make people more susceptible to the "immune system goes into overdrive" aspect of catching COVID. Apparently melatonin specifically can significantly help with managing inflammation throughout the body.



I hate reading this. melatonin wipes me out at nearly any hour of the day except at night when I really need it
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:14 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Yeah, melatonin deficiency has kind of sneakily become the other big thing besides low vitamin D medical professionals are theorizing might make people more susceptible to the "immune system goes into overdrive" aspect of catching COVID. Apparently melatonin specifically can significantly help with managing inflammation throughout the body.



I hate reading this. melatonin wipes me out at nearly any hour of the day except at night when I really need it


Same here; wipes me out within an hour. I only take it before I go to bed. If you don't have COVID already, that should be good; you'll only be advised to take it during the day if you catch it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby big ball chunky time » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:29 pm

ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:46 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...


its a hormone, but it helps regulate sleep i believe
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:46 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

If I take it before bed that’s almost what always happens to me. Doesn’t really help with sleep the night of. Usually wake up more in the middle of the night, honestly. Then the next day is usually a fog and by afternoon time I feel beat.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:50 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

If I take it before bed that’s almost what always happens to me. Doesn’t really help with sleep the night of. Usually wake up more in the middle of the night, honestly. Then the next day is usually a fog and by afternoon time I feel beat.


I sleep better overall with it, but have to wake up 1-2 times to take a leak vs. when I don't take it. It's weird.
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