CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:53 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Nov 19, 2020 8:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

If I take it before bed that’s almost what always happens to me. Doesn’t really help with sleep the night of. Usually wake up more in the middle of the night, honestly. Then the next day is usually a fog and by afternoon time I feel beat.


I sleep better overall with it, but have to wake up 1-2 times to take a leak vs. when I don't take it. It's weird.

I've had that experience too
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:39 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

Look at this parent whose kids are such good sleepers that he hasn't had 3 dozen other parents suggest melatonin to him
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Banedon » Thu Nov 19, 2020 9:44 pm

Andy wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

Look at this parent whose kids are such good sleepers that he hasn't had 3 dozen other parents suggest melatonin to him


My kid learned to sleep through the night by 3 months old. He's 14 now and other than one sleep walking incident, we never had any sleep issues at all with him. I feel very fortunate.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Nov 19, 2020 11:34 pm

I think I'm just gonna tune out on COVID news for a bit. It's bad out there, it's gonna keep being bad out there. Maybe we'll hit the peak soon, maybe it'll take a little longer. But we're gonna be under stricter measures at least through Christmas. See y'all when the vaccine starts hitting. I'm still hopeful for a normal Opening Day, although that might prove optimistic.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Nov 20, 2020 12:21 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:ok so i didnt realize melatonin was a sleep aid or whatever so that probably explains how exhausted I get in the afternoons...

and you want to be my latex salesman


holy horsefeathers this is so good lol
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Nov 20, 2020 1:36 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I think I'm just gonna tune out on COVID news for a bit. It's bad out there, it's gonna keep being bad out there. Maybe we'll hit the peak soon, maybe it'll take a little longer. But we're gonna be under stricter measures at least through Christmas. See y'all when the vaccine starts hitting. I'm still hopeful for a normal Opening Day, although that might prove optimistic.


Seeya on the other side of Vaccine Day. Stay safe.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Nov 20, 2020 2:21 am

Lou Holtz done got it, and he ain’t feeling so hot.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:39 am

I know I deserved to get it according to some, but yeah, the fatigue and the muscle aches were unlike anything I ever experienced before. I would wake up at 7 and be falling asleep by 9 or 10. It felt like someone put subwoofers in each of my ass cheeks and was playing Miami bass.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:53 am

Starting to get concerned. My oxygen saturation levels have been dropping over the last day. I've been chartng my pulse, oxy, and temp every couple of hours. Last night at 8, I was at 98, woke up at 96/97, lunch at 94/95, now down to 92.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:14 am

UK wrote:Starting to get concerned. My oxygen saturation levels have been dropping over the last day. I've been chartng my pulse, oxy, and temp every couple of hours. Last night at 8, I was at 98, woke up at 96/97, lunch at 94/95, now down to 92.


I would get in contact with a health professional. You can always be told by them to wait, you can't go back in time if you've waited too long.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:19 am

UK wrote:Starting to get concerned. My oxygen saturation levels have been dropping over the last day. I've been chartng my pulse, oxy, and temp every couple of hours. Last night at 8, I was at 98, woke up at 96/97, lunch at 94/95, now down to 92.


Call a hospital or urgent care for advice. Under 95% is no bueno.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Fri Nov 20, 2020 3:24 pm

Doing better today, back up to 98. I pushed myself too hard yesterday.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:04 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Nov 20, 2020 4:04 pm

It's crazy how quickly it went from 'wow someone on this board has COVID?' to a regular update thread from the many on here who do. It's so prevalent right now. I hope everyone dealing with it here gets better soon.

I let my guard down the other day and had a handy man working in the room next to me without a mask. Normally I always require myself and others to wear masks in my house, but I was in my office working and decided it was fine this once. Of course the handy man has COVID now. I was only within 6 feet of him for a matter of a minute or two (and not really any closer than 6 feet) but definitely exposure working in the room next to me and the ventilation in my basement. This was Tuesday, he was exposed himself on Sunday and was sick Thursday so I guess I will wait to see if I have it, but will be quarantining for 14 days anyways. My stupidness should not affect others.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Nov 20, 2020 6:16 pm

my wife and daughter went back to Minneapolis last week to visit my mother-in-law who is now in hospice. The really had to do that, saying goodbye is tough. Her room is right next door to the COVID wing.

despite being likely exposed, they had to wait 7 days to get a test....and now we wait
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby bukie » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:23 pm

It's Rachel Maddow, so your mileage may vary, but personal stories are always more affecting regarding this virus, and if anybody needed any extra incentive to just call off Thanksgiving plans and keep everyone safe: https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out ... t-n1248375

Last edited by bukie on Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby NOLA » Fri Nov 20, 2020 7:31 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:If I take it before bed that’s almost what always happens to me. Doesn’t really help with sleep the night of. Usually wake up more in the middle of the night, honestly. Then the next day is usually a fog and by afternoon time I feel beat.


I sleep better overall with it, but have to wake up 1-2 times to take a leak vs. when I don't take it. It's weird.

I've had that experience too

Try Benadryl. I take two every night about an hour before bed and I sleep throughout the nights now. I checked with my doctor and it is totally benign.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby TruffleShuffle » Sat Nov 21, 2020 12:18 am



here in australia yesterday we had five (5) cases.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:06 am

TruffleShuffle wrote:https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1329940131055210496

here in australia yesterday we had five (5) cases.


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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 2:23 am

NOLA wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
I sleep better overall with it, but have to wake up 1-2 times to take a leak vs. when I don't take it. It's weird.

I've had that experience too

Try Benadryl. I take two every night about an hour before bed and I sleep throughout the nights now. I checked with my doctor and it is totally benign.


I thought there were some pretty strong links to long term benedryl use and Alzheimer’s
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:51 am

Alright, I can't resist another one of my stupid predictions that will end up making me look like a dumb-dumb in a few months.

I think we have a chance of seeing full normalcy by Opening Day. It's a weird sort of optimism, because the main reason I think so isn't even the vaccine necessarily, although that will help. It's because of just how awful the holiday season is going to be.

COVID19-projections has come back online with a new formula that significantly lowers their previous projections, which I find disheartening, but I'm willing to roll with it.

They have it at 14.5% of the US infected as of Nov. 6 (they're operating on a two-week delay to account for reporting lag) and a current ratio of 3.3 undetected infections for every detected case. If we just extrapolate the last week in the model to cover the two weeks of lag, that would put us at 16.7% today.



We're at a 7-day rolling average of 165k detected cases per day. 165k * 7 days * 4.3 (3.3:1 ratio) = 1.51% of the US population being newly infected every week. So even if we just average these levels for the next 10 weeks, we'd have more people infected between now and the end of January than we had for the entire pandemic through Nov. 6. And we don't look like we're on pace to level out here, cases are still rising sharply and Thanksgiving is poised to be an absolute disaster.

So if 83% of the population is susceptible currently but we remove 15% through infection in the next 10 weeks, then we would see an 18% (15/83) reduction in transmission rates by then just through infection alone. That would be enough to reduce R0 to below 1 in the majority of US states, using RT.live's current numbers. And that's if somehow the holidays don't cause us to spike even further, which they probably will.

So we should be on our way to seeing the numbers start to drop and exponential decay kick in by the end of January, even without a vaccine. Which is is the flip side of the dreaded winter wave: when winter ends, the wave recedes.

After that, the ball starts to roll downhill, so to speak. The vaccine starts to kick in. If everything goes according to the current plan (EUA on Dec. 12, begin vaccinating ASAP, second dose 28 days after first + 7 more days for full immune response to kick in) we should get the benefit of 8% of the US population being vaccinated by the end of January, and then that number just keeps going up every week that passes by. The weather effects will also begin to turn in our favor again, just like they're turning against us now. We should see cases drop quickly, and if we do a good job of vaccinating the elderly (65+ makes up 15% of our population but 75% of our COVID deaths) then those first vaccinations should have an outsized effect on death rates.

If this all sounds optimistic and cheerful, it's because I'm skipping over the cost. A winter wave in which 15% or more of the population is infected will doubtlessly lead to a death toll in the low six figures, on top of what we have now. It's going to be an absolute horror show of a Christmas season.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:54 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Alright, I can't resist another one of my stupid predictions that will end up making me look like a dumb-dumb in a few months.

I think we have a chance of seeing full normalcy by Opening Day. It's a weird sort of optimism, because the main reason I think so isn't even the vaccine necessarily, although that will help. It's because of just how awful the holiday season is going to be.

COVID19-projections has come back online with a new formula that significantly lowers their previous projections, which I find disheartening, but I'm willing to roll with it.

They have it at 14.5% of the US infected as of Nov. 6 (they're operating on a two-week delay to account for reporting lag) and a current ratio of 3.3 undetected infections for every detected case. If we just extrapolate the last week in the model to cover the two weeks of lag, that would put us at 16.7% today.



We're at a 7-day rolling average of 165k detected cases per day. 165k * 7 days * 4.3 (3.3:1 ratio) = 1.51% of the US population being newly infected every week. So even if we just average these levels for the next 10 weeks, we'd have more people infected between now and the end of January than we had for the entire pandemic through Nov. 6. And we don't look like we're on pace to level out here, cases are still rising sharply and Thanksgiving is poised to be an absolute disaster.

So if 83% of the population is susceptible currently but we remove 15% through infection in the next 10 weeks, then we would see an 18% (15/83) reduction in transmission rates by then just through infection alone. That would be enough to reduce R0 to below 1 in the majority of US states, using RT.live's current numbers. And that's if somehow the holidays don't cause us to spike even further, which they probably will.

So we should be on our way to seeing the numbers start to drop and exponential decay kick in by the end of January, even without a vaccine. Which is is the flip side of the dreaded winter wave: when winter ends, the wave recedes.

After that, the ball starts to roll downhill, so to speak. The vaccine starts to kick in. If everything goes according to the current plan (EUA on Dec. 12, begin vaccinating ASAP, second dose 28 days after first + 7 more days for full immune response to kick in) we should get the benefit of 8% of the US population being vaccinated by the end of January, and then that number just keeps going up every week that passes by. The weather effects will also begin to turn in our favor again, just like they're turning against us now. We should see cases drop quickly, and if we do a good job of vaccinating the elderly (65+ makes up 15% of our population but 75% of our COVID deaths) then those first vaccinations should have an outsized effect on death rates.

If this all sounds optimistic and cheerful, it's because I'm skipping over the cost. A winter wave in which 15% or more of the population is infected will doubtlessly lead to a death toll in the low six figures, on top of what we have now. It's going to be an absolute horror show of a Christmas season.



Please don't stop posting info like this.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:02 am

Now obviously, those all have some wide error bars. If you change the inputs and assumptions a little bit at the front end, you can get some big differences at the end.

If our testing is better than we think and the ratio of undetected:detected infections is lower than 3.3:1, then the virus is a lot deadlier than we think and a lot less prevalent, it will take several more months of vaccinations to get us there than it would otherwise. On the flip side, if the ratio is higher than 3.3:1 (and keep in mind, this is a frequently asymptomatic virus, few states are doing enough testing, and many people are outright hostile to being tested) then it's even more prevalent and we're going to get through even more quickly.

If the estimates that heterogeneity in the susceptible population reduces the herd immunity threshold are true, things could progress even better in both the winter and spring.

If we get through to people and the new restrictions that are being enacted all over the country are effective, then maybe we don't have a holiday spike and we actually lower transmissions over the next 10 weeks from where they are now. That would make things a lot better this winter but would prolong the spring restrictions (worth it, it would save a lot of lives).

If people are total jabronis and our Thanksgiving spike is anything like Canada's thanksgiving spike, then the winter will be even worse than I'm imagining and the spring recovery will be sped up (not worth it, would cost many thousands of lives).
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CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:27 pm

204,000 cases yesterday according to worldometer.

On Election Day we were at 95,000.

My mindset heading into Election Day was that 100,000 cases / day would be nightmarish enough that a significant number of people wouldn’t vote. But it didn’t happen, I don’t think, given that Trump got 70M+ votes and the lion’s share on Election Day.

Now 200k / day and yeah, I see a decrease in activity in my area but interestingly not anywhere near what I saw in Spring. We were in the neighborhood of 30k cases / day in Spring and it looked like a post apocalyptic movie.

Just some observations. We’re basically living out the 1918 flu pandemic cycle. I’ll bet that huge second spike they had was also partially due to fatigue with restrictions, along with winter temperatures setting in. So 100 years go by and it happens again, in spite of so many advancements in technology and communication.
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