CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:40 pm

Soul wrote:204,000 cases yesterday according to worldometer.

On Election Day we were at 95,000.

My mindset heading into Election Day was that 100,000 cases / day would be nightmarish enough that a significant number of people wouldn’t vote. But it didn’t happen, I don’t think, given that Trump got 70M+ votes and the lion’s share on Election Day.

Now 200k / day and yeah, I see a decrease in activity in my area but interestingly not anywhere near what I saw in Spring. We were in the neighborhood of 30k cases / day in Spring and it looked like a post apocalyptic movie.

Just some observations. We’re basically living out the 1918 flu pandemic cycle. I’ll bet that huge second spike they had was also partially due to fatigue with restrictions, along with winter temperatures setting in. So 100 years go by and it happens again, in spite of so many advancements in technology and communication.


well, i mean, the path of the narrative might be similar but the death toll of that one was considerably higher with a considerably smaller population
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Nov 21, 2020 3:49 pm

"advancements in technology and communication" is also a knife that cuts both ways: vectors of disinformation have contributed to the numbers.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sat Nov 21, 2020 4:06 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:"advancements in technology and communication" is also a knife that cuts both ways: vectors of disinformation have contributed to the numbers.


absolutely, but on the other hand, by the same token, there have been plenty of mitigations made possible by that level of communication and there are plenty of people who have shifted to working from home (and otherwise handling certain services/interactions remotely) and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. i'd say the good there outweighs the bad...probably?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:01 pm

Sure. But progress isn't linear, there's bad with the good is all I'm saying. Wondering aloud why modern communication, especially, hasn't solved for low information ignores the existence of the Murdoch media empire as well as the conservative fever swamp (<--yeah same thing; they really shouldn't be differentiated).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:05 pm

David wrote:
Soul wrote:204,000 cases yesterday according to worldometer.

On Election Day we were at 95,000.

My mindset heading into Election Day was that 100,000 cases / day would be nightmarish enough that a significant number of people wouldn’t vote. But it didn’t happen, I don’t think, given that Trump got 70M+ votes and the lion’s share on Election Day.

Now 200k / day and yeah, I see a decrease in activity in my area but interestingly not anywhere near what I saw in Spring. We were in the neighborhood of 30k cases / day in Spring and it looked like a post apocalyptic movie.

Just some observations. We’re basically living out the 1918 flu pandemic cycle. I’ll bet that huge second spike they had was also partially due to fatigue with restrictions, along with winter temperatures setting in. So 100 years go by and it happens again, in spite of so many advancements in technology and communication.


well, i mean, the path of the narrative might be similar but the death toll of that one was considerably higher with a considerably smaller population


Despite how I feel about the state of our society today, I am pretty confident that if the death rates were like they were during the second wave in 1918 we’d be bunkered in worse than we were in the spring.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sat Nov 21, 2020 5:21 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
David wrote:
Soul wrote:204,000 cases yesterday according to worldometer.

On Election Day we were at 95,000.

My mindset heading into Election Day was that 100,000 cases / day would be nightmarish enough that a significant number of people wouldn’t vote. But it didn’t happen, I don’t think, given that Trump got 70M+ votes and the lion’s share on Election Day.

Now 200k / day and yeah, I see a decrease in activity in my area but interestingly not anywhere near what I saw in Spring. We were in the neighborhood of 30k cases / day in Spring and it looked like a post apocalyptic movie.

Just some observations. We’re basically living out the 1918 flu pandemic cycle. I’ll bet that huge second spike they had was also partially due to fatigue with restrictions, along with winter temperatures setting in. So 100 years go by and it happens again, in spite of so many advancements in technology and communication.


well, i mean, the path of the narrative might be similar but the death toll of that one was considerably higher with a considerably smaller population


Despite how I feel about the state of our society today, I am pretty confident that if the death rates were like they were during the second wave in 1918 we’d be bunkered in worse than we were in the spring.


"Obviously, none of these oppressive rules matter look how many people are dying, I'm going to live my life."
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Sat Nov 21, 2020 9:11 pm

Yeah I recognize the differences in the disease death rates I’m just saying the much larger second wave scenario is playing out.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:29 pm

some great advice here

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:29 pm



Illinois is pretty clearly starting to come off its peak for this wave of Covid. Testing numbers have been coming down for more than a week, and I believe this is the first day in quite a while where hospitalization numbers have come down as well. The timing pretty much could not be worse for Thanksgiving to hit.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Banedon » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:37 pm

#3

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:41 pm

62% efficacy at one dose and 90+% at two.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:13 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
David wrote:
Soul wrote:204,000 cases yesterday according to worldometer.

On Election Day we were at 95,000.

My mindset heading into Election Day was that 100,000 cases / day would be nightmarish enough that a significant number of people wouldn’t vote. But it didn’t happen, I don’t think, given that Trump got 70M+ votes and the lion’s share on Election Day.

Now 200k / day and yeah, I see a decrease in activity in my area but interestingly not anywhere near what I saw in Spring. We were in the neighborhood of 30k cases / day in Spring and it looked like a post apocalyptic movie.

Just some observations. We’re basically living out the 1918 flu pandemic cycle. I’ll bet that huge second spike they had was also partially due to fatigue with restrictions, along with winter temperatures setting in. So 100 years go by and it happens again, in spite of so many advancements in technology and communication.


well, i mean, the path of the narrative might be similar but the death toll of that one was considerably higher with a considerably smaller population


Despite how I feel about the state of our society today, I am pretty confident that if the death rates were like they were during the second wave in 1918 we’d be bunkered in worse than we were in the spring.

I do not share your confidnece.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:07 pm

David wrote:62% efficacy at one dose and 90+% at two.



3 vaccines outperforming the current flu vaccine
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:11 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:62% efficacy at one dose and 90+% at two.



3 vaccines outperforming the current flu vaccine


the flu vaccines are very different things
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:15 pm

David wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:62% efficacy at one dose and 90+% at two.



3 vaccines outperforming the current flu vaccine


the flu vaccines are very different things


Right, but I think he's just pointing out that it's amazing that we already have 3 vaccine candidates with success rates that far outpace how well the flu vaccine works even in its best years. Both that is incredible, and that there's still more groups to report their results, too. This is really going to change the game in terms of fighting viruses and diseases.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:25 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:

3 vaccines outperforming the current flu vaccine


the flu vaccines are very different things


Right, but I think he's just pointing out that it's amazing that we already have 3 vaccine candidates with success rates that far outpace how well the flu vaccine works even in its best years. Both that is incredible, and that there's still more groups to report their results, too. This is really going to change the game in terms of fighting viruses and diseases.


oh, it's definitely an insanely impressive testament to what science can do when all resources are pooled together against a common cause.

i just meant to say that, from my rudimentary understanding, the flu vaccine (and influenza viruses themselves) are by nature a way different thing bc influenza viruses are much more of a moving target. i'm not sure how the flu vaccines are rated for efficacy, but i'm guessing the lower rate has to do with all of the different strains being targeted and how much more apt to mutate they are bc of how much more complex their structure is.

if this were more like the flu, we'd be horsefeathers (but then again, i'm not sure if that simplicity in and of itself contributes to how easily transmitted it seems to be). but coronaviruses seem to be much easier targets that we just never had a reason to go hard after (hence the "there's never been a coronavirus vaccine" narrative that was going around for a while).

just saying it seems like the very nature of the virus has a lot to do with how much more easy it seems to be to target with a vaccine as compared to influenza.

but yes, all that said, insanely amazing and great news that it is working out this way. the more doses available sooner, the more lives saved, the faster normalcy returns. this is all horsefeathering awesome and amazing.

(also, i know you know all this much better than i do...was just clarifying as to what my point was)
Last edited by David on Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:34 pm

anyone know how many AZ/Oxford vaccines have been earmarked/in production for US right off the bat?

Just trying to get an idea of how many available doses we'll be having as more and more of these big candidates get approved and the at-risk production floods in.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:44 pm



this annoyed me too

reminded me of eric trump thinking the treatments trump was getting involved vaccines
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:20 pm

David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
the flu vaccines are very different things


Right, but I think he's just pointing out that it's amazing that we already have 3 vaccine candidates with success rates that far outpace how well the flu vaccine works even in its best years. Both that is incredible, and that there's still more groups to report their results, too. This is really going to change the game in terms of fighting viruses and diseases.


oh, it's definitely an insanely impressive testament to what science can do when all resources are pooled together against a common cause.

i just meant to say that, from my rudimentary understanding, the flu vaccine (and influenza viruses themselves) are by nature a way different thing bc influenza viruses are much more of a moving target. i'm not sure how the flu vaccines are rated for efficacy, but i'm guessing the lower rate has to do with all of the different strains being targeted and how much more apt to mutate they are bc of how much more complex their structure is.

if this were more like the flu, we'd be horsefeathers (but then again, i'm not sure if that simplicity in and of itself contributes to how easily transmitted it seems to be). but coronaviruses seem to be much easier targets that we just never had a reason to go hard after (hence the "there's never been a coronavirus vaccine" narrative that was going around for a while).

just saying it seems like the very nature of the virus has a lot to do with how much more easy it seems to be to target with a vaccine as compared to influenza.

but yes, all that said, insanely amazing and great news that it is working out this way. the more doses available sooner, the more lives saved, the faster normalcy returns. this is all horsefeathering awesome and amazing.

(also, i know you know all this much better than i do...was just clarifying as to what my point was)


Sure, targeting one virus is easier then trying to guess which one of a thousand should be targeted in one shot is. regardless, it bodes well for slowing, and hopefully stopping this virus. It also bodes well for future airborne viruses as the path has been laid on how to develope a vacine for such a virus
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:22 pm

David wrote:anyone know how many AZ/Oxford vaccines have been earmarked/in production for US right off the bat?

Just trying to get an idea of how many available doses we'll be having as more and more of these big candidates get approved and the at-risk production floods in.



I read that they are targeting worldwide/low-income distribution, which may play into the lower effectiveness (70% vs 95% of Moderna and Phizer). ie, the AZ/Oxford not as "boutique" as the Moderna and Pfizer versions

AZ/Oxford is really the hero vaccine
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:25 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Sure, targeting one virus is easier then trying to guess which one of a thousand should be targeted in one shot is. regardless, it bodes well for slowing, and hopefully stopping this virus. It also bodes well for future airborne viruses as the path has been laid on how to develope a vacine for such a virus


yep

i've also been wondering if (given that we've possibly/speculatively seen this work the other way where some people have antibodies from prior infections/exposures from other viruses that "look" similar that seem to provide some protection against covid-19) if we might see some cross-immunity from these vaccines and maybe a reduction in some other types of coronavirus infections going forward.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:26 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:anyone know how many AZ/Oxford vaccines have been earmarked/in production for US right off the bat?

Just trying to get an idea of how many available doses we'll be having as more and more of these big candidates get approved and the at-risk production floods in.



I read that they are targeting worldwide/low-income distribution, which may play into the lower effectiveness (70% vs 95% of Moderna and Phizer). ie, the AZ/Oxford not as "boutique" as the Moderna and Pfizer versions

AZ/Oxford is really the hero vaccine


it's better than that. the 70% is just the average of the one dose and two dose trials. if comparing apples to apples (moderna and pfizer are reporting on 2 doses), AZ/oxford's is right up there at 90%+.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:28 pm

David wrote:
it's better than that. the 70% is just the average of the one dose and two dose trials. if comparing apples to apples (moderna and pfizer are reporting on 2 doses), AZ/oxford's is right up there at 90%+.


yea I misread that, 90% after the 2nd shot
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:30 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:anyone know how many AZ/Oxford vaccines have been earmarked/in production for US right off the bat?

Just trying to get an idea of how many available doses we'll be having as more and more of these big candidates get approved and the at-risk production floods in.



I read that they are targeting worldwide/low-income distribution, which may play into the lower effectiveness (70% vs 95% of Moderna and Phizer). ie, the AZ/Oxford not as "boutique" as the Moderna and Pfizer versions

AZ/Oxford is really the hero vaccine


This is, IMO, a very wrongheaded take:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... icacy-data

Here’s the landscape so far: we have results from Pfizer and from Moderna, both of them developing mRNA-based coronavirus vaccines, and both showing efficacy in the 90 to 95% range. The Oxford effort is a different platform, though, with key similarities and key differences. It relies on another virus (a chimpanzee-derived adenovirus) that has had its original DNA genetic payload removed and substituted with the appropriate DNA to produce the full-length Spike protein of the coronavirus. In this construct, the original viral “leader sequence” at the beginning of this DNA has been replaced with another, the leader sequence found for the human tissue plasminogen activase (TPA) protein, because this gave better expression and a better immune response. These adenovirus particles can’t replicate – they don’t have the DNA to express the proteins needed to do that. But they do have all the viral machinery needed to infect a human patient’s cells and force them to express the coronavirus Spike protein, which will set off an immune response that should provide protection against later exposure to the real coronavirus.

So both the adenovirus vector and the mRNA vaccines hijack the protein expression capabilities of a vaccinated person’s own cells, making them produce SARS-Cov-2 Spike protein constructs and thus setting off the immune system. The Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines we’ve seen so far actually express a form of the Spike protein that has a couple of proline residues mutated to make it more stable, whereas the Oxford/AZ vaccine is using the straight wild-type Spike sequence – there’s one difference. Another big one is of course that the Oxford/AZ vaccine is using a completely difference virus to deliver a DNA sequence, whereas the mRNA vaccines are skipping up to a later stage in protein production and slipping messenger RNA directly into the cells.


They are different types of vaccines. It has nothing to do with which one is more "boutique" than the other.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 5:38 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:anyone know how many AZ/Oxford vaccines have been earmarked/in production for US right off the bat?

Just trying to get an idea of how many available doses we'll be having as more and more of these big candidates get approved and the at-risk production floods in.



I read that they are targeting worldwide/low-income distribution, which may play into the lower effectiveness (70% vs 95% of Moderna and Phizer). ie, the AZ/Oxford not as "boutique" as the Moderna and Pfizer versions

AZ/Oxford is really the hero vaccine


This is, IMO, a very wrongheaded take:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/a ... icacy-data

Here’s the landscape so far: we have results from Pfizer and from Moderna, both of them developing mRNA-based coronavirus vaccines, and both showing efficacy in the 90 to 95% range. The Oxford effort is a different platform, though, with key similarities and key differences. It relies on another virus (a chimpanzee-derived adenovirus) that has had its original DNA genetic payload removed and substituted with the appropriate DNA to produce the full-length Spike protein of the coronavirus. In this construct, the original viral “leader sequence” at the beginning of this DNA has been replaced with another, the leader sequence found for the human tissue plasminogen activase (TPA) protein, because this gave better expression and a better immune response. These adenovirus particles can’t replicate – they don’t have the DNA to express the proteins needed to do that. But they do have all the viral machinery needed to infect a human patient’s cells and force them to express the coronavirus Spike protein, which will set off an immune response that should provide protection against later exposure to the real coronavirus.

So both the adenovirus vector and the mRNA vaccines hijack the protein expression capabilities of a vaccinated person’s own cells, making them produce SARS-Cov-2 Spike protein constructs and thus setting off the immune system. The Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines we’ve seen so far actually express a form of the Spike protein that has a couple of proline residues mutated to make it more stable, whereas the Oxford/AZ vaccine is using the straight wild-type Spike sequence – there’s one difference. Another big one is of course that the Oxford/AZ vaccine is using a completely difference virus to deliver a DNA sequence, whereas the mRNA vaccines are skipping up to a later stage in protein production and slipping messenger RNA directly into the cells.


They are different types of vaccines. It has nothing to do with which one is more "boutique" than the other.


1) AZ/O vaccine can be stored at more normal temps
2) it is far cheaper per vaccination
3) it was designed to be both 1) and 2)

it's not as "boutique", and therefor far more accessible to most of the world
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