CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

17 Seconds
Hall of Fame
Posts: 24370
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:36 am
x 964
x 2607

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:39 am

this was his last post (mid march, of course)

Sank888 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Sank888 wrote:
David my friend. I am not physician or a microbiologist or the word for infectious disease expert. But I get a savage pump in 4-5 days a week without exception. The risk of you losing gym momentum (given your situation as described) is so much greater risk to your health than obtaining coronavirus at your gym.

Your fear, like so many others, is so highly irrational you yourself should know it’s nonsense. Also the benefits of exercise for somebody (imguessign your age) your age is so documented that if you choose to interact with humanity in any single way it should be at the gym. Unless you go to a planet fitness than you should absolutely not go.

If you wuss out. Time and number push-up pyramids at home. Dips. Body weight work like free squats. Even in a 10x10 room in self isolation you can get shredded.

Image


My phone won’t display your image!

Honestly what planet is Sammy Sosa living on. I know he means well but seriously people in Skokie IL need to avoid the gym? This is reactionary [expletive] given with a tone of expertise. None of the numbers support a measure like that. Interacting with elderly people carries a risk that we always accept and David’s mom is lucky to have a young person to help so many don’t. Do you think David’s mom wants him to be ashamed every time he looks int he mirror? Look I love my mom too but shoulders day comes first.

Admittedly I’m cavalier about this whole thing. I find it to be the tulip fever of our time. In 6 months people with be like “well how did that happen” and people will either be like “we saved humanity because David skipped legs” or hopefully “oops let’s not let first person twitter narratives bring society to its knees anymore.


i bet this guy is a heavy poster on that body building forum and thinks joe rogan has interesting things to say
1 x

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38624
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1526
x 2083

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:04 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:24 people at a hockey pickup, 99.4% chance that each of us is healthy and non-infectious. 1 - (0.994^25) = roughly a 14% chance that someone there will be infectious.

Pass.


Image
0 x

17 Seconds
Hall of Fame
Posts: 24370
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:36 am
x 964
x 2607

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:05 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Here in Orange County CA, we had it down to under 200 cases per day over the summer and now we're pushing for a 1000/day average.


Not trying to belittle anything, but is 1000/day in a county with a bigger population than 18 states a big number? That’s 1 out of every 3,000 residents. That doesn’t seem so bad for such a dense population.


1000 detected cases per day probably means, conservatively, 4000 true infections a day. Assume the average person is infectious for about 10 days, that means there's 40,000 infectious cases going around at any given time, or 1.2% of the population of 3.18 million. Let's assume that half of them are obviously sick and smart enough to stay home, that leaves 0.6%.

24 people at a hockey pickup, 99.4% chance that each of us is healthy and non-infectious. 1 - (0.994^25) = roughly a 14% chance that someone there will be infectious.

Pass.


do you think the team will be okay without you though?
5 x

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38624
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1526
x 2083

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:12 am

Sank888 wrote:David my friend. I am not physician or a microbiologist or the word for infectious disease expert. But I get a savage pump in 4-5 days a week without exception


Image
9 x

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 35850
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: GRIP IT AND RIP IT
x 2650
x 3416

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:13 am

17 Seconds wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Not trying to belittle anything, but is 1000/day in a county with a bigger population than 18 states a big number? That’s 1 out of every 3,000 residents. That doesn’t seem so bad for such a dense population.


1000 detected cases per day probably means, conservatively, 4000 true infections a day. Assume the average person is infectious for about 10 days, that means there's 40,000 infectious cases going around at any given time, or 1.2% of the population of 3.18 million. Let's assume that half of them are obviously sick and smart enough to stay home, that leaves 0.6%.

24 people at a hockey pickup, 99.4% chance that each of us is healthy and non-infectious. 1 - (0.994^25) = roughly a 14% chance that someone there will be infectious.

Pass.


do you think the team will be okay without you though?


Well, it's pickup. They'll have to rearrange the positions a little bit, roll the benches faster. Make do with 5 "guy who just hangs out at the blue line and cherrypicks for a breakaway" instead of 6.
0 x

17 Seconds
Hall of Fame
Posts: 24370
Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 2:36 am
x 964
x 2607

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:17 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
1000 detected cases per day probably means, conservatively, 4000 true infections a day. Assume the average person is infectious for about 10 days, that means there's 40,000 infectious cases going around at any given time, or 1.2% of the population of 3.18 million. Let's assume that half of them are obviously sick and smart enough to stay home, that leaves 0.6%.

24 people at a hockey pickup, 99.4% chance that each of us is healthy and non-infectious. 1 - (0.994^25) = roughly a 14% chance that someone there will be infectious.

Pass.


do you think the team will be okay without you though?


Well, it's pickup. They'll have to rearrange the positions a little bit, roll the benches faster. Make do with 5 "guy who just hangs out at the blue line and cherrypicks for a breakaway" instead of 6.


i played roller hockey growing up and at first there was no offside or even blue lines. you could literally cherry pick 5 feet in front of the opposing goalie while play was going on at the other end. luckily, i played the game the right way
1 x

User avatar
minnesotacubsfan
Superstar
Posts: 19817
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:27 pm
Location: I CANT BREATHE
x 3082
x 1156

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:49 am

17 Seconds wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
do you think the team will be okay without you though?


Well, it's pickup. They'll have to rearrange the positions a little bit, roll the benches faster. Make do with 5 "guy who just hangs out at the blue line and cherrypicks for a breakaway" instead of 6.


i played roller hockey growing up and at first there was no offside or even blue lines. you could literally cherry pick 5 feet in front of the opposing goalie while play was going on at the other end. luckily, i played the game the right way

You played goalie and took it in the teeth from some shmuck cherry picking shots?
0 x
Image

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38624
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1526
x 2083

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:12 pm



caveat, this guy works for NewsMax apparently. Mojo taught me to look at tweeters before posting...
1 x

User avatar
WrigleyField 22
Superstar
Posts: 15059
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:48 pm
Location: hnderstabxcwhsg
x 3222
x 1836

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:34 pm

OleMissCub wrote:https://twitter.com/SchmittNYC/status/1331206898130046976?s=20

caveat, this guy works for NewsMax apparently. Mojo taught me to look at tweeters before posting...

But he has a blue check and those are never wrong.
0 x
Image

UK
Hall of Fame
Posts: 21258
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 2:38 pm
x 219
x 660

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:18 pm

Yeah, but Fosters is the equiv to Old Style.



Great thread of how the Aussies are handling covid.
1 x
"It was kind of weird to look in the mirror the first time I tried my hat on." - Mark Bellhorn

User avatar
CyHawk_Cub
Superstar
Posts: 10504
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:24 pm
x 511
x 4738

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:07 am

1 x

User avatar
JudasIscariotTheBird
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6708
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:05 am
Location: Denver, CO
x 6765
x 2963

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:12 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

These are the kinds of guys that truly deserve the death penalty.
0 x
"None of these signal alarm bells to me"-Boris
"Sublime was driven by their frontman, who was, quite probably, a musical savant." -RIP Stannis
(Formerly Diceman4221)

User avatar
WrigleyField 22
Superstar
Posts: 15059
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:48 pm
Location: hnderstabxcwhsg
x 3222
x 1836

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:22 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:

These are the kinds of guys that truly deserve the death penalty.

I'd settle for him having to work the cleaning crew shift for like three months in the covid unit.
1 x
Image

User avatar
CyHawk_Cub
Superstar
Posts: 10504
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:24 pm
x 511
x 4738

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:05 am

Nahhh, it's time to move on, forgive and forget.
0 x

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6170
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 11
x 194

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Nov 25, 2020 3:15 am

Strange, considering my local hospital just put out an article letting people know they're already at 80% capacity and begging people to act intelligently. At the same time doctors/nurses are increasingly overwhelmed, fatigued and suffering mental collapses. We're going to hit a breaking point very soon where the healthcare workers just can't physically or mentally perform anymore.
0 x

User avatar
Soul
Resident Cat Lady
Posts: 41685
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2003 7:19 pm
Location: In the throes of Cub madness
x 45
x 155

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Wed Nov 25, 2020 7:08 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Strange, considering my local hospital just put out an article letting people know they're already at 80% capacity and begging people to act intelligently. At the same time doctors/nurses are increasingly overwhelmed, fatigued and suffering mental collapses. We're going to hit a breaking point very soon where the healthcare workers just can't physically or mentally perform anymore.

80% is pretty good too, compared to some.
0 x
If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice.

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 62859
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 11025
x 6182

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Nov 26, 2020 7:42 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:So apparently the reason some of the people in the Oxford trial got the half-dose that seems possibly more effective is they just plain-old screwed up the dosing and decided to keep the data. That doesn't guarantee they won't get approval, but it's a pretty big screw-up that regulators will apparently scrutinize pretty closely.




Soriot said he didn’t expect the additional trial to hold up regulatory approvals in the U.K. and European Union. Clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration may take longer because the regulator is unlikely to approve the vaccine on the basis of studies conducted elsewhere, especially given the questions over the results, he said.
0 x

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 35850
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: GRIP IT AND RIP IT
x 2650
x 3416

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Nov 26, 2020 8:49 pm

It puts everyone in a tough spot.

The data without the screw-up group is still good enough to warrant emergency approval in a situation as dire as this. The vaccine appears to work and it hasn’t failed any safety checks.

But the whole point is to follow a carefully planned trial protocol. It was pretty audacious off them to try to spin it as a fortunate oopsie-daisie, and the media let them get away with it for 48 hours because the media is scientifically illiterate.
3 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 62859
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 11025
x 6182

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:02 am

seems like chicago might be turning a corner

Capture.PNG
Capture.PNG (113.12 KiB) Viewed 661 times


https://www.dph.illinois.gov/regionmetrics?regionID=11
2 x

User avatar
JudasIscariotTheBird
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6708
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:05 am
Location: Denver, CO
x 6765
x 2963

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:22 am

David wrote:seems like chicago might be turning a corner

Capture.PNG


https://www.dph.illinois.gov/regionmetrics?regionID=11

I don't want to be a downer, but I'd wager an acceleration change like that has little to do with actual covid spread, and more to do with Thanksgiving mucking with testing rates.

In other words, that corner is way, way too steep to be explained. ...right?
0 x
"None of these signal alarm bells to me"-Boris
"Sublime was driven by their frontman, who was, quite probably, a musical savant." -RIP Stannis
(Formerly Diceman4221)

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 35850
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: GRIP IT AND RIP IT
x 2650
x 3416

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:48 am

I don't know about Chicago specifically, but I know that in general the Midwest was starting to turn the corner late last week and into this week.

I'm just pretty sure it's not going to matter because Thanksgiving is going to obliterate it. We've had a noticeable spike after every holiday so far, and Thanksgiving by its nature could be the worst one of all.

We're still pretty much right on the rails for what I've been expecting: An absolutely horrifying winter, followed by a rapid decline in early spring and a sudden return to normalcy.
0 x

Bertz
All-Star
Posts: 2542
Joined: Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:59 pm
x 976
x 1502

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Fri Nov 27, 2020 2:45 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
David wrote:seems like chicago might be turning a corner

Capture.PNG


https://www.dph.illinois.gov/regionmetrics?regionID=11

I don't want to be a downer, but I'd wager an acceleration change like that has little to do with actual covid spread, and more to do with Thanksgiving mucking with testing rates.

In other words, that corner is way, way too steep to be explained. ...right?


Nah, testing volume has stayed steady leading into the holiday. I think the big thing is that indoor dining shut down again at the start of the month. Almost exactly 3 weeks before numbers came crashing down. The other thing I wonder about is herd immunity. Covid-Projections has Cook county at 22% infected as of Nov 8th (the last day they've calculated. That's probably higher in Chicago proper, let's say 25%. Maybe that's not enough to kill this thing, but is enough that recovering from a spike is pretty rapid rather than the long slog we saw on the spring?

I am super worried about Thanksgiving though. I live in Wicker Park, which is pretty liberal even by Chicago standards. The other three units in my building all went home to their parents yesterday. If you can't even get good compliance here I'm not confident about trends more broadly.
1 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 62859
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 11025
x 6182

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Nov 27, 2020 4:32 pm

Bertz wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
David wrote:seems like chicago might be turning a corner

Capture.PNG


https://www.dph.illinois.gov/regionmetrics?regionID=11

I don't want to be a downer, but I'd wager an acceleration change like that has little to do with actual covid spread, and more to do with Thanksgiving mucking with testing rates.

In other words, that corner is way, way too steep to be explained. ...right?


Nah, testing volume has stayed steady leading into the holiday. I think the big thing is that indoor dining shut down again at the start of the month. Almost exactly 3 weeks before numbers came crashing down. The other thing I wonder about is herd immunity. Covid-Projections has Cook county at 22% infected as of Nov 8th (the last day they've calculated. That's probably higher in Chicago proper, let's say 25%. Maybe that's not enough to kill this thing, but is enough that recovering from a spike is pretty rapid rather than the long slog we saw on the spring?


that's what i was wondering about too...the idea that the mitigation efforts in spring were just good/soon enough to avoid "burn out" to the level NY had and maybe there was this much left over before hitting that point and getting to the where NY is now where it's slowed considerably.

reminder that this is what NYC looks like - https://forward.ny.gov/percentage-posit ... -dashboard (click the nyc region)
0 x

User avatar
CyHawk_Cub
Superstar
Posts: 10504
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:24 pm
x 511
x 4738

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:11 pm

0 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 62859
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 11025
x 6182

Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Nov 30, 2020 3:49 pm

i know these are mostly just internet crazy people, but please somebody talk me off the ledge that the replies in this put me on (i'm sure that, given the circumstances, when it's actually out there and available, plenty of people - enough people - will go ahead and get their shot - but man, reading stuff like this is bad for my mental health/blood pressure)





0 x


Return to “Social”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bobson Dugnutt, CoolHandLuke, entbird79, jersey cubs fan, PosterToBeNamedLater and 9 guests