CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby ChiCubsFan » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:43 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:What I want to see soon is hospitalizations decoupling from cases. Right now, hospitalizations are dropping slower than cases are, roughly in line with what you'd expect from a 7-day lag between diagnosis and admission.

That makes me wonder if we're even seeing the effects of vaccines much at all yet. If things work the way I think they should work, within a few weeks, hospitalizations should be dropping faster than cases due to the focus of the vaccine on higher-risk categories. If that doesn't happen, something isn't working the way I imagine it works.

But man have cases plummetted. Down 38% in just 16 days. If we could do that three more times (38% drop over 16 days), we'd be below the September lows.


Many of the LTCF that we have been vaccinating are already on such strict protocols that cases and hospitalizations aren’t currently as high as you’d maybe expect in that population. I would say about half of the facilities I visited had no active infections with some stating they haven’t had any infections in “months”. In addition to the protocols, A TON of the residents have already had it so likely had some protection to begin with.

So my take is that the decreased rates and hospitalizations are primarily from all the HCW that have been vaccinated, which generally don’t result in hospitalizations anyway. Now that 1b (65+ and essential workers) started on Monday in IL, I’m projecting you’re going to start seeing those rates decouple in another week or two.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby abuck1220 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:10 pm

it's gotta be rough for the people out there claiming COVID is fake/just the flu/a liberal conspiracy because they are passing up a primo, once in a lifetime "God has released a worldwide plague to punish us for gay marriage" opportunity. tough break for them.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby bukie » Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:12 pm

David wrote:so the plan should basically be get as many of any kind of decently effective shots in arms as possible until the production on the mRNA ones (and whatever boosters/modifications) catches up and people can get the other ones later?

the thing i'm curious about is how you would be able to shop for one vs the other or know what you might get when you sign up for one.


either way, it's great news to get tens/hundreds of millions of more doses of a vaccine that's highly effective in terms of death and hospitalization online

I think the best course of action with the J&J vaccine is to give it to the younger (like, 16 to 30) audience, and all others who are vaccine hesitant that you think might not come back for the second shot of the other vaccines, while you continue to inoculate the first responders, front line workers, elderly and high risk people with the higher effectiveness 2-dose vaccines. That should cut down on hospitalizations and deaths even further, faster, and gives a population so desperate to get things back to normal an earlier timeline for that to happen.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby seanimal » Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:58 pm

me, getting all these vaccines at once

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby big ball chunky time » Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:59 pm

johnson and johnson: we created a vaccine with 95 percent efficacy
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Fri Jan 29, 2021 8:04 pm

Andy wrote:Got the expected good news from J&J trials.



The already have a large stock ready for shipment at their facility in Beerse (Belgium) so just get the approval process done ASAP, EMA :clapping:
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jan 29, 2021 8:22 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:The error bars on the South African study for the Novavax vaccine are gigantic. They're reporting it as 50% or whatever, but the confidence interval is like 12-80


Yeah, reading more up on the info we got at work eased a ton of my fears. It's tough to really read into it much because it's mostly data from a relatively small sample sized phase 2 (plus the numbers are thrown significantly when you include the HIV+ patients), and even with the worst case outcomes you're looking at a vaccine that is still 50%-60% effective against this variant, which, when this all started, was often seen as the best case scenario we could hope for against ANY version of this virus.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Fri Jan 29, 2021 11:35 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:The error bars on the South African study for the Novavax vaccine are gigantic. They're reporting it as 50% or whatever, but the confidence interval is like 12-80


Yeah, reading more up on the info we got at work eased a ton of my fears. It's tough to really read into it much because it's mostly data from a relatively small sample sized phase 2 (plus the numbers are thrown significantly when you include the HIV+ patients), and even with the worst case outcomes you're looking at a vaccine that is still 50%-60% effective against this variant, which, when this all started, was often seen as the best case scenario we could hope for against ANY version of this virus.

Nobody went to the hospital or died after taking the J&J vaccine. I think that’s pretty darn important. 100% effective against death.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Jan 30, 2021 1:52 am

1.6m vaccinations reported today

Hospital census dropped 3300, down to 101k. By percent of remaining, that’s the biggest drop yet.



Johnson and Johnson vaccine is a success.

Evertything is still running according to plan. If we don’t have any surprises or hiccups, I still think fans in stands at every park on opening day is feasible .
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:21 am

Depends on how many fans (I for one don't see the draw in going to restricted capacity games), but just having fans as ambient noise for baseball games would be nice.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Jan 30, 2021 3:47 am

Andy wrote:Depends on how many fans (I for one don't see the draw in going to restricted capacity games), but just having fans as ambient noise for baseball games would be nice.

Why don’t you see the draw?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:18 am

I honestly don’t give a horsefeathers about fan noise, and more often than not I find it annoying.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:25 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Andy wrote:Depends on how many fans (I for one don't see the draw in going to restricted capacity games), but just having fans as ambient noise for baseball games would be nice.

Why don’t you see the draw?

Just personal preference. I can watch games at home on TV if I don't want to (or can't, in this case) be near other people. It's probably more relevant for football games, though.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:27 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Andy wrote:Depends on how many fans (I for one don't see the draw in going to restricted capacity games), but just having fans as ambient noise for baseball games would be nice.

Why don’t you see the draw?

Yeah I think there’s going to be plenty demand to go to games, (restrictions on attendance or not). Football and basketball is selling out what they’re allowed to all fall/winter. It SEEMS to be a relatively safe thing, especially outdoors, there hasn’t been some big spreader event tied to a sporting event as far as I know and that definitely would’ve been a big story if so. Plus there are plenty of people who’ve stayed employed through all this and saving money and everyone is pent up to go do normal things. I think there’s going to be plenty of demand to attend MLB games however and whenever it’s allowed.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:30 am

Andy wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Andy wrote:Depends on how many fans (I for one don't see the draw in going to restricted capacity games), but just having fans as ambient noise for baseball games would be nice.

Why don’t you see the draw?

Just personal preference. I can watch games at home on TV if I don't want to (or can't, in this case) be near other people. It's probably more relevant for football games, though.
so is it a safety thing or don’t want to be in a 1/4 filled stadium thing?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:31 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Andy wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:Why don’t you see the draw?

Just personal preference. I can watch games at home on TV if I don't want to (or can't, in this case) be near other people. It's probably more relevant for football games, though.
so is it a safety thing or don’t want to be in a 1/4 filled stadium thing?

Oh, the latter. I suppose I should've been clearer.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:35 am

Andy wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Andy wrote:Just personal preference. I can watch games at home on TV if I don't want to (or can't, in this case) be near other people. It's probably more relevant for football games, though.
so is it a safety thing or don’t want to be in a 1/4 filled stadium thing?

Oh, the latter. I suppose I should've been clearer.

Have you never attended a nonfilled game? I’ve been to plenty and I’d go again. Once it’s relatively safe I’d be happy to attend a sparsely filled stadium.

I won’t because I don’t like the Cubs and won’t bother going into into queens or the Bronx..., but I would.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:14 am

Did anyone catch the segment on Bill Maher tonight with the two biologists that host Dark Horse Podcast? I'm not familiar with their credentials and whether their opinions are generally respected, but they believe that it is extremely likely that this virus did actually come from a lab. The somewhat scary part of the conversation was their suggestion that the virus could be mutating differently than expected "because" it originated from a lab, which may be why the newer variants seem to be getting more virulent. I haven't heard that theory before. Have any other reputable scientists suggested something similar?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:29 am

Irrelevant Dude wrote:Did anyone catch the segment on Bill Maher tonight with the two biologists that host Dark Horse Podcast? I'm not familiar with their credentials and whether their opinions are generally respected, but they believe that it is extremely likely that this virus did actually come from a lab. The somewhat scary part of the conversation was their suggestion that the virus could be mutating differently than expected "because" it originated from a lab, which may be why the newer variants seem to be getting more virulent. I haven't heard that theory before. Have any other reputable scientists suggested something similar?

They are a married set of goofballs who have no significant biology cred, they got their fame by tangling with campus protestors and then resigning from their professor positons at Evergreen State, and are a part of the "intellectual dark web." (They suck.) So no, they are very much out on a limb with this lab stuff.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:34 am

Irrelevant Dude wrote:Did anyone catch the segment on Bill Maher tonight with the two biologists that host Dark Horse Podcast? I'm not familiar with their credentials and whether their opinions are generally respected, but they believe that it is extremely likely that this virus did actually come from a lab. The somewhat scary part of the conversation was their suggestion that the virus could be mutating differently than expected "because" it originated from a lab, which may be why the newer variants seem to be getting more virulent. I haven't heard that theory before. Have any other reputable scientists suggested something similar?


No. The virus isn't changing unusually for a novel coronavirus on this scale.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sat Jan 30, 2021 2:55 pm

Andy wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Andy wrote:Just personal preference. I can watch games at home on TV if I don't want to (or can't, in this case) be near other people. It's probably more relevant for football games, though.
so is it a safety thing or don’t want to be in a 1/4 filled stadium thing?

Oh, the latter. I suppose I should've been clearer.


Too many painful memories of Ball St athletics?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:00 pm

I read a couple interesting things about the J&J vaccine. First, it’s a one shot vaccine....for now. They are also doing a 2 shot trial that might boost immunity further.

Also, J&J’s test was done against a later population than Moderna and Pfizer. It was a sicker population with a more complex series of variants in play. Nobody knows how Pfizer and Moderna would have fared if tested against the same group.

So basically we can’t just say 95% > 72%. It’s not apples to apples.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:07 pm

i saw this floating around yesterday. obv this doesn't look like it controls for anything but those are nice sounding numbers given the 700k sample. not sure how to correctly interpret that. i also have literally only seen this snippet i just posted, so if there's more info out there feel free to share.



Emerging data from Israel indicates that the vaccines manufactured by Pfizer and BioNTech, as well as Moderna, may be even more effective than previous results from clinical trials suggested.

CNN reports that Israel’s Ministry of Health studied more than 700,000 fully inoculated people — meaning those who received two doses of either vaccine — in the country and saw only 0.04 percent contract a COVID-19 infection.

The results were debriefed to reporters by Sharon Alroy Preis, the head of Israel’s Ministry of Health, on Thursday. Israel has mostly used the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which uses the same messenger RNA technology as Moderna.

The study, conducted in December 2020, observed 715,425 vaccinated individuals with one week of time in between their second dosage.

Just 317 people contracted COVID-19 following their inoculation, and 16 of those people were hospitalized.

The data from Israel used a greater population sample than the Pfizer and Moderna human trials, which gathered information from about 75,000 participants.

While new mutations of COVID-19 are worrying medical experts and public health professionals, the Israel study doesn’t appear to have distinguished between people infected with the original COVID-19 strain and a new variant, such as the South Africa or United Kingdom mutation.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Sat Jan 30, 2021 10:31 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Jan 30, 2021 11:29 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/ArmstrongDrew/status/1355643532804055043?s=19


1.4M doses a day is no joke. We're basically hitting all of our optimistic targets we set in the fall now, it just took a month or so to get up and rolling.

By the end of February, we'll add Johnson and Johnson to that list, and those all count double because it's single dose.

By the end of April-ish, the bottleneck won't be supply or rollout but just gathering up all the stragglers who don't want it or haven't gotten around to it.

The non-crazy people I know in California are scared to reopen because they feel burned by the second and third waves, but I have a hard time seeing how even the mutant variants can overcome this much immunity being piled on every week.
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