CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:15 pm

Just because little Tommy's district in the next town over went back doesn't mean your little Janie's district should reopen immediately. Each district has their own discrete set of circumstances to work through.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Feb 19, 2021 2:35 pm

Derwood wrote:
seanimal wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Damn, get a better basic browser that blocks some damn scripts.

Basically it says the problem from the teachers' union side is that the manpower just isn't there, from teachers to substitutes to non-educator school staffing to bus drivers. All of those positions suffered huge losses over the last year+, and they're saying that without some serious backfilling the staffing just isn't there to bring back the level of students the governor is demanding as of March 1st. And while the educators are getting their vaccines, the non-educator school employees are nowhere near as covered, and won't be by March 1st.

Long story short: it's not cool to make it sound like teachers are selfishly or frivolously or foolishly battling against being able to teach traditionally.


i've entertained the thought some, having a ridiculously high proportion of teachers in my social circle and being pathologically unable to fully suppress my contrarian and cynical impulses. but i get serious snapback on that sort of reactionary tendency as soon as one of these naperville types gets all "my little tanner has to go back to high school every day or he''ll jump off a bridge!"

lady, if you had any interest in your child or parenting or both, you would realize pretty quickly that your kid will probably be just fine without the immersively traumatizing experience of spending your waking hours with hundreds of cruel, horsefeathers teenagers. it's not like before we invented public schools a hundred years ago or whatever, kids were just jumping off bridges left and right. i feel like that would have come up at some point in my studies if that was the case

but that's just a distraction. the real point is: what if it was me? what if i was the teacher, and i had weigh this out? would i be safe? would my employer strive to ensure my safety? would the students be safe? would their families be safe?

i ask myself these things and then i don't question the motivations of these teachers and their unions. they are workers, just as their students will someday be, and maybe the best thing they can do for their students is to stand up for themselves. and maybe the best thing we can do, is to stand alongside them

you know, six feet apart and stuff


I have a lot of perspective from both sides of the argument. On the one side, I teach (in person) and have participated in the planning and coordination of safety protocols, technology changes, etc. It’s a massive effort. The parents who expect things to change overnight are unreasonable. The main cause of the teachers strike was that district NOT doing their due diligence in making the proper changes.

On the other side, I have two daughters in high school (a senior and a freshman) and they horsefeathering hate at home learning. HATE it. They say they get more out of one in-school day than they do out of three at-home days. They also say some teachers have clearly given up, frustrated by the hybrid model. No, they aren’t going to “jump off bridges” (as if that’s the measure of whether this is affecting a kid or not), but it’s not good either. Hybrid is better than 100% remote, but I sympathize with the students wanting to get back into school.

So IF there is an overwhelming desire to go back full time, and IF the district has checked all the boxes to ensure the safest possible environment, it becomes frustrating when the teachers (or, at least, those representing the teachers) say “no, we won’t even consider it”. The union president said “until the virus is completely gone, we aren’t going back”. Completely gone? So...never?


Let's face it: odds are all the steps haven't been taken that should be taken, much less the ones that need to be taken. Most educators face a massive uphill battle to do their job just under normal circumstances, much less a pandemic. Obviously, that's true for everyone right now, but when you have a case like this, where a state's government is effectively ordering everyone back regardless of whether all of the needed staff is vaccinated, protected, or even available/hired in the first place, then you're going to see the ripple effect to other districts.

Yes, maybe the union president is speaking for the entire union and they actually don't want to go back until the virus is "gone"...that's unrealistic. Personally, I think it's more likely that's a poor choice of words, and the educators of Ohio AREN'T expecting to not have to come back to in-person teaching until the virus is eradicated from the planet.

Personally, I think trying to open schools up as much as possible is still way too early and is a mistake. I think we need to hold off doing things of that scale until WAY more of the total population is vaccinated, and until new case levels have dropped to a certain point AND has stayed there for at least more than month.

While children seem to be mostly spared the most serious impacts of being impacted, it's still very murky just what their infection rates are, and how well they can spread it. Even if most kids can shrug it off, every new infection is effectively a lottery ticket for another damn variant to start arising. Our goal right now, especially with a light seemingly at the end of the tunnel, should be to be MORE vigilant and careful, as much as possible, until we can have this truly under control. No, that doesn't mean completely "gone," but it sure as hell isn't where we're at now.

If it was my call, then this school year should just be considered a wash for regular in-person learning. That's just how it needs to be. Yeah, it sucks, but if we continue to bite the bullet now, our odds of not having to do it for the next school year are so much better.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:25 pm

I don't know how DeSantis or Cuomo don't escape charges over their handling of COVID, but somehow I'm sure they will.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:25 pm

CubinNY wrote:I don't know how DeSantis or Cuomo don't escape charges over their handling of COVID, but somehow I'm sure they will.


DeSantis is going to run for President on how he handled it
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:29 pm

Oh hey it turns out that overcautious messaging in order to keep people compliant and scared has some unforeseen consequences and maybe we should have just told the truth as much as possible instead of trying to balance out insane Trumpist lies with the exact counterfrequency or something:

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Fri Feb 19, 2021 5:51 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Oh hey it turns out that overcautious messaging in order to keep people compliant and scared has some unforeseen consequences and maybe we should have just told the truth as much as possible instead of trying to balance out insane Trumpist lies with the exact counterfrequency or something:


I'm not thinking most of these people were on the fence.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:04 pm

Herd by April? Very optimistic. Hope it’s true.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have- ... 1613669731

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast.


There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby big ball chunky time » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:10 pm

ive been banging that drum for a while but it really depends on what your definition of "gone" is.

In the first few months of the pandemic in america, most states were reporting very low numbers of infections. And even after testing increased, the numbers in the vast majority of the country were still low.

But 500 cases a day (for instance) in June meant something entirely different than 500 cases a day in March or April. In June, we were still preparing hospitals. We knew less about treatment and how the virus spread. And frankly we just had more people to infect.

So I think it was obviously justified to be afraid (or whatever term you want to use) of these numbers last spring/summer. But now? If we get to April and states are reporting the same number of daily cases that they were reporting early on in the pandemic, for all intents and purposes it's over.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:25 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Oh hey it turns out that overcautious messaging in order to keep people compliant and scared has some unforeseen consequences and maybe we should have just told the truth as much as possible instead of trying to balance out insane Trumpist lies with the exact counterfrequency or something:


Fail to see the cause and effect you are suggesting here.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:32 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Oh hey it turns out that overcautious messaging in order to keep people compliant and scared has some unforeseen consequences and maybe we should have just told the truth as much as possible instead of trying to balance out insane Trumpist lies with the exact counterfrequency or something:


Fail to see the cause and effect you are suggesting here.


Yeah, if anything, this is a media problem and not a, "the experts and politicians aren't being positive/pro-vaccine enough!" issue.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby abuck1220 » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:11 pm

yeah, i don't get it either. if we had been more forthcoming about how well things were going, that was going to encourage more people to get vaccinated? i would think it would be the opposite.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:24 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Oh hey it turns out that overcautious messaging in order to keep people compliant and scared has some unforeseen consequences and maybe we should have just told the truth as much as possible instead of trying to balance out insane Trumpist lies with the exact counterfrequency or something:



no horsefeathering kidding

i mean one of the top talking points among people skeptical of the vaccine is the early messaging that there may never be a vaccine or it could/should take years and now they are worried that it came too fast and that there's never been a coronavirus vaccine

my anecdotes obviously don't mean much, but i've tried to convince several people to get vaccinated who use this reasoning, including several people who otherwise get vaccinated.
Last edited by David on Sat Feb 20, 2021 5:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:09 pm

https://www.dph.illinois.gov/regionmetrics?regionID=11

looks like the positivity rate in chicago's region is the lowest it has been at any point during the pandemic. 3.6%
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby stitchface » Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:20 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby bukie » Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:22 pm

A story on the failures of federal planning pre-January:

My wife works for a long term care corporation, travelling between sites and homes doing hospice/palliative care. Over the past year, that has involved, unfortunately, quite a few COVID patients. So, one would think she'd be among the first people to get the COVID vaccine once they became available.

When the initial batches of COVID vaccines were distributed, her company got a set number, seemingly at random, in early January, that they did not know ahead of time, with the promise of more doses later in the month. They chose to prioritize age over function within the company, so residents got first priority, then employees in order of age/health risk.

Since my wife is a relatively healthy 40 year old, she was in the second to last priority grouping (65+, then 50+, then 40+, then general employees), behind almost all the executives for the company she worked for. She was scheduled to get her first vaccine dose on the second to last week of January.

However, we got COVID in the household, so she had to quarantine for 2 weeks over that time period and she got bumped. Instead she was rescheduled for mid-February. After the reschedule, her company learned that the second batch that was supposed to come didn't exist and the CDC just decided to not communicate that to anyone, soon after which the new leadership at the CDC realized there was absolutely no plan for vaccine distribution and that there was no reserve of doses.

Rather than inform my wife of this, though, they just strung her along until yesterday, at which point they told her they ran out of vaccine doses and that she wouldn't be able to get one until an unknown time in the future, and she'd have better luck going through Walgreens or CVS. However, Walgreens/CVS has local shortages to the point where you can't even schedule an appointment in Illinois with them, so that looks like a dead end as well.

So now she has to continue to work with COVID patients, 8 weeks after the vaccine has rolled out, with no current plan to get vaccinated because there aren't enough doses available, even though Illinois is planning to open to the general high risk public next week. Instead, now, she called one of the Indiana facilities she's doing work at, and lined up a vaccination next week, because it looks like Indiana had plenty of vaccination doses to spare, because, again, seemingly random vaccine distribution that (hopefully coincidentally) has favored red states.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:59 am



Hospitalizations back to increasing drops over the previous week, as Texas stopped piling them up and started discharging people normally again. Looks like it was a two-day snowstorm related blip. We are on track to hit our lowest national hospitalization of the pandemic on March 20.

Cases dropped under 70k like three days after they dropped under 80k. We're probably undercounting by a couple thousand per day in Texas, though, but the overall trend is still a freefall.

Vaccinations are down this week, you know, because of the storms. Should just be a blip as that builds up extra supply and we appear to have the throughput set up to handle it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Feb 20, 2021 3:50 am

I'm not ready to declare victory yet, but the list of things I need to see to get there is getting smaller by the week.

Right now, I think we can rule out the scenario where B117 overwhelms our winter-level NPIs and causes a new surge despite our best efforts. Take our current transmission rates, bump them up 50%, bring them down through a few weeks of vaccinations, and you're already back to 1.

But it's still conceivable that B117 could combine with loosening restrictions (wherever there still are restrictions) and behaviors to temporarily drive transmission rates above 1. But at worst that looks like a small bump to me, from our already low-ish numbers, or more likely a plateau or even continued declines.

Unless some sort of new event happens that is not currently part of the plans (New SuperVariant that moots all previous infection? All our vaccines actually have a terrible side effect and we have to pull them off the shelves? I don't know), the range of scenarios is down to "holy crap this thing is over in late March before anyone was ready to believe it could be over" through "OK things are way better but not quite good enough and it managed to stretch this out to June, which is annoying" at worst.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby seanimal » Sat Feb 20, 2021 4:15 am

man, if you would have told me like, five years ago that someday i would read kyle posts for weeks on end and not once want to gouge my eyes out, i probably would have quit the message board in disgust for an entire presidential administration

but yet here we are. i do not tire of these posts, and genuinely appreciate them
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:05 am

seanimal wrote:man, if you would have told me like, five years ago that someday i would read kyle posts for weeks on end and not once want to gouge my eyes out, i probably would have quit the message board in disgust for an entire presidential administration

but yet here we are. i do not tire of these posts, and genuinely appreciate them


Wait until it turns out I'm wildly wrong about all of it.



It sure looks to me like the national R(t) is creeping down again. It was starting to flirt with 0.85, now even if you add back in the presumed texas backlog, it still is closer to 0.78-0.80.

Which is, you know, what happens when you're vaccinating 2% of your population every week and nothing else is really changing.

I feel like everyone (by which I mean public-facing experts and headline writers) is trying to read the tea leaves on behavior or really emphasize some obscure potential pitfall because they don't wanna miss some potential catastrophe and look like an idiot for not predicting it.

But really the big news is that we have ~40% of the population immune and we're pumping out doses of a highly effective vaccine at the equivalent of about 2% of the population per week fully vaccinated (4 doses/100). That's a way bigger consideration than anything else out there. It's like when baseball pundits try to gloss over the fact that the dude just hit 47 dongs in a year and instead wants to talk about how he went 5-for-9 on stolen base attempts.

During the winter wave, from Sept. to Dec. our apparently national R(t) ran from about 1.05 to about 1.25. It never got higher than that. It wasn't a quick spike, it was just that we allowed the virus to grow steadily as each generation got bigger until it was huge. But imagine if, starting in September, we were reducing R(t) by 2% every week, but everything else stayed the same. The October growth would have been about half as big as it was, and then by November and through December cases would have been shrinking again.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby ChiCubsFan » Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:50 pm

It’s likely not going to matter much...but is halting first doses in favor of ensuring second doses really a good idea? We probably should have always been rolling out first doses to most/all before giving most the second dose, with some exceptions maybe.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/single-pf ... ve-as-two/
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:32 pm

Looks like the initial shipments of the J&J aren't going to be as robust as expected, and the 100M doses promised will likely be backloaded w/respect to their june deadline.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:59 pm

David wrote:Looks like the initial shipments of the J&J aren't going to be as robust as expected, and the 100M doses promised will likely be backloaded w/respect to their june deadline.



Yeah, it looked for a minute like we might be done vaccinating by end of april. now closer to may/june.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:10 am

ChiCubsFan wrote:It’s likely not going to matter much...but is halting first doses in favor of ensuring second doses really a good idea? We probably should have always been rolling out first doses to most/all before giving most the second dose, with some exceptions maybe.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/single-pf ... ve-as-two/


I think that you could probably get away with giving everyone first doses before swooping back for the second. But playing fast and loose with the trial protocols seems like an awfully dangerous game. We *know* it works well under the exact plan, we assume it would work well under other plans.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:20 am



blah blah free fall, blah blah vaccinations, blah blah everything still improving, blah blah 4 weeks

Illinois is actually on pace to reach the lowest levels of hospitalization of the pandemic in about 5 or 6 days.

One thing to keep an eye on is that tomorrow, with sundays being the low day of the weekly cycle, has a good chance to be the first day under 50k for the US in a long time.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby ChiCubsFan » Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:22 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
ChiCubsFan wrote:It’s likely not going to matter much...but is halting first doses in favor of ensuring second doses really a good idea? We probably should have always been rolling out first doses to most/all before giving most the second dose, with some exceptions maybe.

https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/single-pf ... ve-as-two/


I think that you could probably get away with giving everyone first doses before swooping back for the second. But playing fast and loose with the trial protocols seems like an awfully dangerous game. We *know* it works well under the exact plan, we assume it would work well under other plans.


Well we know it works well 2 weeks after a single dose. 92.6% vaccine efficacy with a 95% confidence interval of 69-98.3%. I’m sure at this point they’ve gathered even more data that can raise the lower part of that range of the CI even further, albeit by a retrospective analysis.

There are going to be a lot of deaths over the next month+ that could have possibly been prevented if we altered our strategy. I’m not saying this 100% must to be done, but it needs heavier consideration. I just feel like things are improving so quickly that nobody wants to discuss or consider this option that could make things even better quicker.
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