Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Postby Tracer Bullet » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:17 am

Thurman Merman wrote:Im not up to date with my British politics, but who is for leaving, conservatives or liberals? I thought i read that David Cameron is for staying, but then I read that he is the leader of the conservative party, so now im all confused.


old racists it appears
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Re: Brexit

Postby Thurman Merman » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:29 am

So conservatives want to leave. Got it. Not surprising. Although I do find it interesting that the PM, a member of the conservative party, is essentially at odds with his base.
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Re: Brexit

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:30 am

Thurman Merman wrote:Im not up to date with my British politics, but who is for leaving, conservatives or liberals? I thought i read that David Cameron is for staying, but then I read that he is the leader of the conservative party, so now im all confused.

Country folk

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Re: Brexit

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:31 am

Thurman Merman wrote:So conservatives want to leave. Got it. Not surprising. Although I do find it interesting that the PM, a member of the conservative party, is essentially at odds with his base.

Business people don't want to leave
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Re: Brexit

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:33 am

Think of Lenny and ryne ween.


They'd want to Brexit
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Re: Brexit

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:43 am

guess we won't hear much from british people making fun of america for the whole trump thing any more.

can't remember a country voluntarily voting to crash its own economy like this.
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Re: Brexit

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:53 am

Jesus this is dumb. And I mocked our risk team for doubling up margins on London products, should at least be a fun July market
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Re: Brexit

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:59 am

the pound has plummeted to its lowest level since 1985.
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Re: Brexit

Postby glavine93 » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:20 am

i basically died when farage congratulated brexitors for getting it done without a single bullet. and he attributed the victory to "decent people!"

i love all things English and election coverage so i thought this would be my super bowl, but in the end it was pretty depressing.
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Re: Brexit

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:23 am

prominent political parties and politicians from northern ireland and scotland have said that they will push for independence from the uk, so that they may remain part of the EU. scotland voted quite heavily to remain part of the EU while the vote was closer in northern ireland, but also on the side of remain.

if uk goes through with leaving the EU then this should be the end of the united kingdom as it exists.
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Re: Brexit

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:25 am

Sinn Fein now saying Northern Ireland's vote for the EU should make the case they belong in a united Ireland.

Scotland may certainly leave if they have another referendum, but NI? No way. Hard to see them (Protestants) joining a country where they would be such a tiny minority.
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Re: Brexit

Postby CubInOK » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:43 am

OleMissCub wrote:Sinn Fein now saying Northern Ireland's vote for the EU should make the case they belong in a united Ireland.

Scotland may certainly leave if they have another referendum, but NI? No way. Hard to see them (Protestants) joining a country where they would be such a tiny minority.

I'm still clueless on what they do. Do they stay their own country and even join the Eurozone? Do they really vote to unite with Ireland?
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:31 am

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Re: Brexit

Postby Tim » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:55 pm

And yet you seek to assuage my fears that this country has enough idiots to elect Trump.

This didn't help.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Derwood » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:59 pm

May this be a cautionary tale to all the idiots in Texas who want to secede
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:02 pm

Yeah, it's crazy how the Leave side got all of those previously unknown British Latino votes. Tim, stay right there while I do the biggest, fakest, most sarcastic jerkoff motion I possibly can.

The amount of hysterical garment-rending from liberal friends today like this somehow validates Trump and is going to push him into the White House is obnoxious. Most Americans gave no horsefeathers about this story until this morning, and will give no horsefeathers about it a week from now, especially once it sinks in that it won't inspire some kind of global financial apocalypse and that the process itself is going to take 2+ years.

To generalize as much as possible, the Brexit vote largely came down to older voters vs. younger voters, something which didn't really surprise anyone. Trump isn't going to inexplicably win such a clear divide; his numbers stink too much with too many huge demographics.
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Re: Brexit

Postby CubinNY » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:17 pm

Trump did a presser in Scotland and kept saying that "England is taking their country back". I kept on yelling at the reporters to ask him who they were taking their country back from. I hope someone will ask him that question eventually.
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Re: Brexit

Postby USSoccer » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:22 pm

There's no EV scenario that compares to the Brexit vote, so unless 40% of the country is purged from voter rolls in particular states in the next 4.5 months Trump isn't going to do anything.

Cameron and the Remain folks did a very poor job addressing the underlying economic issues driving the Leave movement. The dissatisfaction with wealth and growth for the super rich only and perceived and real lack of opportunity from the working class was then duly co-opted by nativists, racists, and idiots looking to "scratch the phantom limb of Empire" (quote not mine but I really liked it so I'm stealing it).

This is going to have disastrous economic consequences and some nasty unforeseen consequences. Particularly with Scotland and the inner-Irish border.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:29 pm

USSoccer wrote:There's no EV scenario that compares to the Brexit vote, so unless 40% of the country is purged from voter rolls in particular states in the next 4.5 months Trump isn't going to do anything.


Yeah, 17 of the 35 major Brexit polls in June were in favor of leaving, so people acting like this is out of the blue just weren't paying attention. Basically they're hinging on financial and gambling projections saying it was all but a lock, but the numbers were clearly there the whole time.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Ryne Ween » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:18 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
USSoccer wrote:There's no EV scenario that compares to the Brexit vote, so unless 40% of the country is purged from voter rolls in particular states in the next 4.5 months Trump isn't going to do anything.


Yeah, 17 of the 35 major Brexit polls in June were in favor of leaving, so people acting like this is out of the blue just weren't paying attention. Basically they're hinging on financial and gambling projections saying it was all but a lock, but the numbers were clearly there the whole time.


I would not categorize this as anything but very surprising. The markets had remain baked into the indexes yesterday.

I get all the commentary from the analysts and this was definately a surprise to those who has the most interest in it. This result was a surprise.

While this doesn't mean anything about trump getting the presidency it is relevant in that it shows that the dynamics that have contributed to the trump phenomenon exist in strong numbers in other places.
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Re: Brexit

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:46 pm

Correct, dummies exist everywhere
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:46 pm

The markets were just wrong; this didn't happen in a vacuum. The polls were evenly split right up until the end.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:55 pm

A comment to The Financial Times, of all things, nailed it:

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Re: Brexit

Postby CubInOK » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:59 pm

Ryne Ween wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
USSoccer wrote:There's no EV scenario that compares to the Brexit vote, so unless 40% of the country is purged from voter rolls in particular states in the next 4.5 months Trump isn't going to do anything.


Yeah, 17 of the 35 major Brexit polls in June were in favor of leaving, so people acting like this is out of the blue just weren't paying attention. Basically they're hinging on financial and gambling projections saying it was all but a lock, but the numbers were clearly there the whole time.


I would not categorize this as anything but very surprising. The markets had remain baked into the indexes yesterday.

You didn't read his post.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:02 pm

CubInOK wrote:
Ryne Ween wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Yeah, 17 of the 35 major Brexit polls in June were in favor of leaving, so people acting like this is out of the blue just weren't paying attention. Basically they're hinging on financial and gambling projections saying it was all but a lock, but the numbers were clearly there the whole time.


I would not categorize this as anything but very surprising. The markets had remain baked into the indexes yesterday.

You didn't read his post.


Or something like this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upsho ... polls.html

The polls consistently indicated that there was a very real chance that Britain would vote to leave. Polling averages even showed “Leave” with a lead for most of the last month; over all, 17 of the 35 surveys conducted in June showed the Leave side with the edge, while just 15 showed Remain ahead.

Yet at the same time, betting markets indicated that Remain was a clear favorite. The arguments for making Remain a favorite were understandable, but in retrospect, some look more like wishful thinking than a fair-minded assessment of the data:

■ Polls in Britain had some poor results in the last few years, including in the Scottish referendum and recent parliamentary elections. In the United States, referendum polls can also often be less accurate than general election surveys. In itself, this wasn’t a good reason to discount the possibility of Brexit. But it was used to discount the polls.

■ There were plenty of undecided voters, and it was assumed that undecided voters would break toward the status quo. This was one of the prevailing interpretations of why the polls were wrong about Scottish independence, but oddly, it’s the opposite of the conventional wisdom in American elections — that undecided voters break toward the challenger. There isn’t a tremendous amount of evidence to believe that either interpretation is an especially solid rule of thumb.

■ Most surveys showed that voters thought that Remain would win, and there is a fairly sizable body of evidence that this type of question — about who will win rather than who someone will vote for — does a pretty good job of predicting electoral outcomes. Not this time.

■ Betting markets showed that Remain was favored, and again, there’s plenty of evidence that betting markets are a fairly reliable predictor of election results. Obviously, they were not.

It’s not clear why the betting markets were so confident. Perhaps it was in part because of some combination of all of the previous points, but it might have been a dose of wishful thinking from a pool of relatively affluent globalist gamblers who simply didn’t believe that Brexit could really happen.


Basically the only thing that seemed to really nudge things more definitively towards remain was the response after Cox's murder, and even then Exit came out on top in 4 of the last 11 polls, and Remain only had about an average lead of about 0.5%.

Bottom line: elections that hover basically right at 50-50 are notoriously tough to predict because they can so easily swing either way. It's no secret that the financial world certainly wanted Remain to win, and as said, hedging their bets on it definitely seems like wishful thinking.
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