Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

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Duke Silver
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Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

Postby Duke Silver » Wed Jun 29, 2016 9:35 am

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squally1313
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Re: Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

Postby squally1313 » Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:02 pm

This is fantastic. I felt like I needed to shut the door and put my headphones on.

I have to ask, just from the volume of research you obviously did....was there anything that stuck out as still worrisome?
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Tim
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Re: Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

Postby Tim » Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:13 pm

Fantastic, as always. Did this get posted to Reddit yet? I saw goony put it on twitter already.
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sneakypower
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Re: Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

Postby sneakypower » Wed Jun 29, 2016 4:22 pm

There is a hidden value in Bryant's versatility. His being able to play all over the field gives Joe Maddon a lot of options. Most importantly, it allows Maddon to use Javier Baez more often. If Bryant couldn't play the outfield, a less dynamic player than Baez, like Matt Szczur, would have to play the outfield more often. Bryant can be considered the fourth outfielder, despite also being the nominal starting third baseman. It allows Matt Szczur to remain an ostensible fifth outfielder, which is probably the role for which he is best suited. If an outfielder gets hurt, then Bryant can fill in there. If an infielder gets hurt, Bryant can stay at third, while Baez fills in for the injured player.

[...]
Bryant also has helped the Cubs to get over a win in value out of Javier Baez. He's done this simply by allowing the Cubs to use Baez more often, instead of resorting to playing a lesser player, like Szczur.

[...]
He's also probably augmented other bench players' value by allowing Maddon to use them in favorable situations.

i don't know if this is really illustrative; Cubs have gotten:
3.64 WAR / 650 PA from non-Bryant LF
3.36 WAR / 650 PA from non-Bryant 3B

so there's a clear (and massive) benefit that's been achieved by putting otherwise mediocre[1] players in advantageous positions; and you can also surely attribute Joe Maddon Alchemy to this, gaining added platoon advantage[2] this way

[1]
ZiPS preseason WAR projections / 650 PA:
Javier Baez: 2.35
Jorge Soler: 1.52
Tommy La Stella: 1.52
Albert Almora: 1.37
Chris Coghlan: 0.90
Matt Szczur: 0.81

[2]
deployment vs. strong-side pitching:

vs. LHP (league average 26%)
Szczur: 38%, .871 OPS
Baez: 30%, .931 OPS
Soler: 40%

vs. RHP (league average 74%)
La Stella: 89%, .896 OPS
Coghlan: 91%
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Duke Silver
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Re: Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

Postby Duke Silver » Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:10 pm

squally1313 wrote:This is fantastic. I felt like I needed to shut the door and put my headphones on.

I have to ask, just from the volume of research you obviously did....was there anything that stuck out as still worrisome?


Not really, no. 8-)

If you want to nitpick, the contact % is still a little low. If he brought it up, though, we'd be talking about him being Mike Trout. And there are still "concerns" about him eventually getting less value from his base running and defense, especially if he keeps playing in the outfield more often. But, it's obvious those are two of his positive attributes. And everything checks out with his offense right now. He's just really freaking good.
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Re: Kris Bryant is Good At Baseball

Postby badger » Wed Jun 29, 2016 6:20 pm

This really was an amazing lunch read. Thanks for doing what you do Duke. Makes me a smarter baseball fan!
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