NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

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NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:51 pm

Well it's that time of year again, time to watch college basketball for a month until baseball gets going.

This is the 12th annual NCAA Mock Tourney selection committee. To participate, be prepared to send 3-4 lists of teams every day starting Tuesday next week until Sunday next week. It should take about an hour of time each day to do so, if that, and I'll collate all the information and we'll pick teams, seed them, and bracket them, just like the real selection committee does (though they do have software for selection...one day I'll get there).

In order to participate in the committee, send me (or post in the thread) the following things by the end of Tuesday, March 8 (11:59 PM CST):
1. Your favorite team/representative team. In the normal committee, a committee member can't comment on any team they represent. The real committee represents conferences, but if I did that here, nobody would be able to talk about the Big Ten.
2. Your list of 36 at large worthy teams, assuming nobody wins their automatic bid. So in an apocalyptic conference tournament world, which 36 teams get at-large bids anyway? You could do this in order to skip step 4, or just toss the teams in there and rank the top 16 separately.
3. Your list of other teams that should be considered for at-large bids.
4. Your list of top 16 teams, in order.

Feel free to discuss the process and teams freely in the thread, and I'll keep updating this post and other posts later with the progress of the committee, from the teams that win auto bids to the teams that are locked onto the board, to the teams that fall off the board, to the seed list, to the bracket.

The official committee makes use of RPI to analyze the teams, which is a tool so old and obsolete it's long become a joke, so I don't like to use it. I'd like to think our task here is to select the teams that deserve it along side the committee, not so much try to predict what the actual committee will do.

That said, here are some resources I like to use for analysis:
KenPom ratings
Sagarin ratings
Massey Comparison Ratings (seriously there are about 30 different ratings there)
Real Time RPI (hey just because it's obsolete and useless doesn't mean it doesn't exist)

Automatic bids:
1. Austin Peay - Ohio Valley
2. Yale - Ivy
3. UNC Asheville - Big South
4. Florida-Gulf Coast - Atlantic Sun
5. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley
6. UNC Wilmington - Colonial
7. Chattanooga - Southern
8. Iona - Metro Atlantic
9. Green Bay - Horizon
10. Fairleigh Dickinson - Northeast
11. South Dakota State - Summit
12. Gonzaga - West Coast
13. Patriot
14. America East
15. Mid American
16. ACC
17. Big East
18. Big 12
19. Big Sky
20. Big West
21. Conference USA
22. Mid-Eastern
23. Mountain West
24. Pac-12
25. Southland
26. SWAC
27. WAC
28. Sun Belt
29. SEC
30. Big Ten
31. American
32. Atlantic 10
Last edited by bukie on Wed Mar 09, 2016 5:17 am, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:53 pm

Also note, I didn't link anyone else's bracketology or selection, because we're not trying to mimic anyone else, we're picking our own teams.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:10 pm

Also, my team is Illinois, so I won't be putting them on any of my lists.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Mon Feb 29, 2016 3:39 pm

One other thing, don't include ineligible teams in your lists. I know SMU and Louisville specifically are ineligible, and there's a bunch of teams ineligible for NCAA APR failures. I'll see if I can find a list somewhere.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby Tim » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:07 pm

bukie wrote:Also, my team is Illinois, so I won't be putting them on any of my lists.

Man, that's going to throw things way off this year.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:15 pm

Tim wrote:
bukie wrote:Also, my team is Illinois, so I won't be putting them on any of my lists.

Man, that's going to throw things way off this year.


I'm sure the committee will take into account the Illini's variety of injuries, suspensions and dismissals and gift them an at-large bid.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Tue Mar 01, 2016 2:50 pm

So far that's two comedians and zero committee members. :wink:
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby Tim » Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:13 pm

bukie wrote:So far that's two comedians and zero committee members. :wink:

I'm not sure I've watched a game that didn't include the Illini this year.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Tue Mar 01, 2016 3:44 pm

Tim wrote:
bukie wrote:So far that's two comedians and zero committee members. :wink:

I'm not sure I've watched a game that didn't include the Illini this year.

To be fair, the Illini weren't really in those games either.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Mar 01, 2016 4:19 pm

I'd contribute during the week, but am leaving for Vegas that Thursday around 3.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:18 pm

Anyone can contribute what they can in the thread over the next two weeks.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:55 am

Ineligible teams:
SMU (American)
UMass-Lowell (America East)
Louisville (ACC)
Sttetson (Atlantic Sun)
Southern Miss (CUSA)
Northern Kentucky (Horizon)
Florida A&M (MEAC)
Abilene Christian (Southland)
Central Arkansas (Southland)
Incarnate Word (Southland)
Alcorn State (SWAC)
Pacific (WCC)
Grand Canyon (WAC)
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:01 am

From the "no teams this year are really good" narrative, the top rated team on KP right now has a Pythagorean of .9465, the lowest Pyth by a top team since Pomeroy started doing his ratings 14 years ago. Six teams last year had a high Pythagorean.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:14 am

I have a hard time seeing Kansas missing on a 1 seed.
Same for Nova If they beat GTown, They should be able to survive a BE Tourney loss as long as it's not to DePaul.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:31 am

2 tourneys started today in the Atlantic Sun and Patriot. Neither with at-large potentials, but North Florida at least has potential to be a 14 seed type off the top of my head.

America East, Northeast, and Ohio Valley start tomorrow, with the Northeast winner likely headed to a 16 seed, and if it's not Wagner, seems a lock for a play-in game. Handful of teams from AE and OVC who could get as high as 14.

Not to much in terms of potential bid thieves this week other than Wichita, and then YMMV on St. Mary's, Gonzaga, BYU, Valpo, and Monmouth.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:57 am

Interesting maybe only to me:

Stetson is banned from the tournament due to APR, but are still allowed to participate in the ASun tourney. The rules state if they win the tourney, the regular season champ gets the bid. So if North Florida and Stetson both win on Thursday, North Florida will clinch the bid, and the championship game will mean nothing.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby biittner77 » Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:44 pm

There's a Stetson University? Shouldn't they play in the Sombrero Conference?
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Mar 02, 2016 2:30 pm

I'm putting Iowa on my bubble, try and stop me
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 02, 2016 4:17 pm

Iowa's resume has basically gone from Michigan State to Wisconsin in two weeks.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:49 pm

biittner77 wrote:There's a Stetson University? Shouldn't they play in the Sombrero Conference?


Their mascot is the Hatters, no joke.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby mul21 » Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:06 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
biittner77 wrote:There's a Stetson University? Shouldn't they play in the Sombrero Conference?


Their mascot is the Hatters, no joke.


Not nearly as ridiculous as the team in my high school conference, the Polo Marcos. It's real, look it up.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:18 am

incredible

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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby woodchip2153 » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:31 am

I can't believe they have that nice of a graphic, and I don't think they have most of those sports anymore.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Fri Mar 04, 2016 4:26 am

In the A-Sun semis, Florida-Gulf Coast upset North Florida, and Stetson won its second straight upset game to make the finals, so if Stetson wins the final, North Florida makes the NCAA tournament, and if FGC wins, they make the tourney.
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Re: NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2016

Postby bukie » Fri Mar 04, 2016 7:37 pm

Big games in the Ivy league this weekend, where Yale and Princeton are essentially tied with two to play. If they finish tied they will have a one game playoff for the automatic spot.
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