Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:33 am

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:So without taking into account any "time value" premium on the trade the Bears would have to finish top 6 in the league for this to be an even trade on the traditional trade chart. Fwiw.


the traditional chart is basically worthless with the rookie scale though

but you did say fwiw

Most the "new" models I've seen would make that 4th more valuable relative to the second...basically making this trade impossible to "win". But I dont also totally agree with some of those new models, either.


When the wage gap between early and late picks is drastically cut, I don't see how the value would skew toward the later picks.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Brian » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:46 am

Seems like a cool guy, his HS team got torched by Mitch in the playoffs and he's got an 815 phone number

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:48 am

David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
the traditional chart is basically worthless with the rookie scale though

but you did say fwiw

Most the "new" models I've seen would make that 4th more valuable relative to the second...basically making this trade impossible to "win". But I dont also totally agree with some of those new models, either.


When the wage gap between early and late picks is drastically cut, I don't see how the value would skew toward the later picks.

Most the new charts have looked at historical value, and the drop off between mid 2nd and fourth isn't that great, at least speaking on that macro, historical view.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby UK » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:49 am

My ideal draft so far....

1) M. Fitzpatrick
2) H. Landry
3) DJ Chark

With that said, Bears have had an outstanding draft so far.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:06 am

UK wrote:My ideal draft so far....

1) M. Fitzpatrick
2) H. Landry
3) DJ Chark

With that said, Bears have had an outstanding draft so far.


Edmunds/Smith was a toss up to me. As was Daniels/Landry.

But I'll say my picks if I was GM probably would have been:

1. Edmunds
2. Daniels
3. Lorenzo Carter
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:23 am

My Day 3 board:

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)
Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)
Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon
Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama
Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia
Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest
Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma
Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane
Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona
Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby davell » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:31 am

rawaction wrote:My Day 3 board:

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)
Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)
Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon
Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama
Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia
Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest
Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma
Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane
Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona
Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware


I'll add these guys for me.....

WR Deon Cain
WR DaeSean Hamilton
OT Jamarco Jones
OT Desmond Harrison
DE Dorrance Armstrong
CB Nick Nelson
CB DJ Reed

Sweat,Crosby, and Cain are my top 3.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:23 am

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Old Style » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:53 am

UMFan83 wrote:
Old Style wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
Next years #2 obviously has less value than a 2 pick next year. A number 4 this year is tough to give up but the Bears dont even have a 3rd rounder this year so instead of a 1,2 and 4, they have a 1,2 and 2. I don’t know I’m not an expert in these things but it doesn’t seem terrible to me

Your first sentence doesn’t make any sense and the Bears have two 4th round picks this year so after trading one we still have the other.


What do you mean? You disagree that a 2nd round pick next year is less valuable right now than a 2nd round pick this year?

Re-read your original post again.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:12 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
What do you mean? You disagree that a 2nd round pick next year is less valuable right now than a 2nd round pick this year?

You can't just call them both 2nd round picks and pretend that's the same thing. They traded into the back of the 2nd and may have traded away an early to mid 2nd to do it.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:30 pm

Draftteks day 3 mock (comments are my own)

Rd 4-
Josh Sweat, EDGE, FSU
Nice length and athleticism, and three year producer st FSU. Would like this pick.

Rd 5-
Kevin Toliver II, CB, LSU
Big bodied CB (6'2"), but li backed production. Always ma ki es sense to add DB depth though.

Rd 6-
Christian LaCouture, DE, LSU
Seems kind of like a ho-hum DL prospect. Older prospects. No elite traits. Good production over 4 years. Fills a need though.

Rd 7-
KC McDermott, OT, Miami
Meh. But most 7th rounders are meh. Sounds like a future Bradley Sowell if all hits.

All in all something like that would be okay with me. Obviously you dont really want to draft on need on day 3, but those would all hit some needs on some level.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 1:56 pm

davell wrote:
rawaction wrote:My Day 3 board:

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)
Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)
Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon
Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama
Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia
Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest
Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma
Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane
Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona
Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware


I'll add these guys for me.....

WR Deon Cain
WR DaeSean Hamilton
OT Jamarco Jones
OT Desmond Harrison
DE Dorrance Armstrong
CB Nick Nelson
CB DJ Reed

Sweat,Crosby, and Cain are my top 3.


Yeah, Cain and Hamilton would be easily in my top 5 (along w/ Sweat, Crosby, Hurst) if the Bears didn't pick a WR yesterday, didn't include them because I just don't see them going w/ another WR.

My "next 3" would be Armstrong, Nelson, and Jones.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:02 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:Draftteks day 3 mock (comments are my own)

Rd 4-
Josh Sweat, EDGE, FSU
Nice length and athleticism, and three year producer st FSU. Would like this pick.

Rd 5-
Kevin Toliver II, CB, LSU
Big bodied CB (6'2"), but li backed production. Always ma ki es sense to add DB depth though.

Rd 6-
Christian LaCouture, DE, LSU
Seems kind of like a ho-hum DL prospect. Older prospects. No elite traits. Good production over 4 years. Fills a need though.

Rd 7-
KC McDermott, OT, Miami
Meh. But most 7th rounders are meh. Sounds like a future Bradley Sowell if all hits.

All in all something like that would be okay with me. Obviously you dont really want to draft on need on day 3, but those would all hit some needs on some level.


Really like Toliver. Has some off-field stuff. Would be interesting if Pace takes a shot with him if there in the 5th. Another big CB I like is Tarvarus McFadden from FSU. Former high recruit and some good tape in his past before a pretty crappy year in 2017. He's not very fast though. Holton Hill is another big CB with off-field issues.

Don't know much about the last 2 or the late DT/OT guys in general. But I'm good if they come out of this with Sweat and one of those CBs (some smaller slot CBs I like still there too).
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:05 pm

So I'm kind of walking myself into being on board with the trade last night. I think we definitely needed to add a high level WR prospect at some point over the next year, and so we paid the 4th to do it now instead of next year. Why do I like getting the pick a year early?

The Bears should be thinking about the next 3-4 years as their first serious window. Mitch should be well underpaid for his production, and the overall cap outlook is comfortable enough that they can maintain some agressiveness in FA. To that point this year will likely still be a bit of a transition year (hopefully competing for playoff spot, but not serious SB contender), but it gets that high level WR prospect in here now so that he doesn't lose a year of development time that aligns perfectly with the Mitch Trubisky rookie scale window. So I think this year and even next will be our window to pay that "time value" premium. Now some people probably think we need to be more serious contenders first. But I dont see it that way, you want to be out ahead of your potential curve in order to maximize it (because rookies take development time).

Then around 2021/22 when Mitch is maybe the highest paid player in football you go the other direction and start trading down or into the future for more depth and take swings later on.

So that's how I've backed into my justification and I'm sticking to it.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:06 pm

Forgot about Quinton Meeks. Another good big CB still on the board. He might actually be in my top 10.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby davell » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:10 pm

rawaction wrote:
davell wrote:
rawaction wrote:My Day 3 board:

Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan (heart issue, said to not be threatening, obviously scaring teams)
Josh Sweat, OLB, Florida St (knees scare me, especially since he's been passed on so far and showed elite athleticism at combine)
Tyrell Crosby, OT, Oregon
Anthony Averett, CB, Alabama
Andrew Brown, DL, Virginia
Duke Ejiofor, OLB, Wake Forest
Ogbonnia Okowronku, OLB, Oklahoma
Ade Aruna, OLB, Tulane
Dane Cruikshank, CB/S, Arizona
Bilal Nichols, DL, Delaware


I'll add these guys for me.....

WR Deon Cain
WR DaeSean Hamilton
OT Jamarco Jones
OT Desmond Harrison
DE Dorrance Armstrong
CB Nick Nelson
CB DJ Reed

Sweat,Crosby, and Cain are my top 3.


Yeah, Cain and Hamilton would be easily in my top 5 (along w/ Sweat, Crosby, Hurst) if the Bears didn't pick a WR yesterday, didn't include them because I just don't see them going w/ another WR.

My "next 3" would be Armstrong, Nelson, and Jones.


Jones would be a very nice add for Hiestand to work on. I'd love to see them draft Massie's replacement today.

No idea what to suspect today, because I truly figure they just drafted 3 starters. Nothing would shock me. I could even see a QB taken. A RB may get drafted today. Kind of suspect we will take one actually. I don't expect a TE. WR COULD still be addressed, but I agree it's unlikely. I do think the O-Line gets addressed again. I'm guessing they'll grab an Edge at some point. Doubt they take an interior D-Line, but it's possible. Won't be taking another ILB. Another DB is possible. Could even take 2.

My biggest needs left

Edge
CB depth
Massie replacement for next year
Depth at one of RB, WR, S, or DO

But just go straight BPA and hope for the best. Still can't believe we've already got what we've got.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Bertz » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:17 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:So I'm kind of walking myself into being on board with the trade last night. I think we definitely needed to add a high level WR prospect at some point over the next year, and so we paid the 4th to do it now instead of next year. Why do I like getting the pick a year early?

The Bears should be thinking about the next 3-4 years as their first serious window. Mitch should be well underpaid for his production, and the overall cap outlook is comfortable enough that they can maintain some agressiveness in FA. To that point this year will likely still be a bit of a transition year (hopefully competing for playoff spot, but not serious SB contender), but it gets that high level WR prospect in here now so that he doesn't lose a year of development time that aligns perfectly with the Mitch Trubisky rookie scale window. So I think this year and even next will be our window to pay that "time value" premium. Now some people probably think we need to be more serious contenders first. But I dont see it that way, you want to be out ahead of your potential curve in order to maximize it (because rookies take development time).

Then around 2021/22 when Mitch is maybe the highest paid player in football you go the other direction and start trading down or into the future for more depth and take swings later on.

So that's how I've backed into my justification and I'm sticking to it.


I think the window thing is a very real consideration. Timing this pick to sync with Trubisky's rookie contract has value. That's part of why the Eagles and(especially) Rams used up so much of their draft capital on trading for veterans, really trying to strenghten their teams around Goff and Wentz while they're cheap.

Also, the strengths of this draft were round 1 QBs and general depth in round 2. Assuming next year is a normal draft, it's very possible pick 50 this year is graded pretty equivalently to pick 40 next year, even excluding TVM considerations.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:36 pm

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby davell » Sat Apr 28, 2018 2:55 pm

The more I've read on Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, the more I like him. I'd be happy with him in the 4th too. Meeks as well, for that matter.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:35 pm



this catch at 1:26, good lord
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:46 pm

Bears still have a decent bit of money left. I'd love for them to go after a couple more free agents after the draft is over.

Specifically thinking, Jonathan Hankins. Gives the Bears a veteran who can form a deadly base DL alongside Goldman and Hicks. Can also back up Goldman on the nose. And is a hell of an insurance policy in case Robertson-Harris and Bullard don't take the next step. He's not a great pass rusher, but does have a 7 sack season under his belt in 2014 (5 last 2 years). The outside pass rush obviously isn't going to be ideal with Floyd, Lynch, Acho and likely a 3rd day draft pick.

Also, Kenny Vaccaro would be a nice luxury signing. Pace was a part of the group that drafted him. He's an ideal 3rd safety who can play in the box and did a decent job covering TEs last year. Would give the Bears the versatility to go 3 safeties in the nickel with he and Jackson able to cover the slot or TE in man coverage.

Junior Galette would be interesting as an OLB, but I don't see that happening. I guess when he was with the Saints he really trashed the organization, and I don't think Pace would have interest because of that. But he's one of the best pass rushers in the league on a "per rush" basis.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby rawaction » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:00 pm

David wrote:https://youtu.be/y9zwpzTw8aQ

this catch at 1:26, good lord


He has like 10 5/8" hands, which is ridiculous for someone 5'11".
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby davell » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:00 pm

Pace has shown interest in Hankins previously, I'd love that. Vaccaro would be nice too. We're in great shape for any June 1st cuts too. I guess that's where we find some Edge help, in the end. Although it could just be bringing Young or Houston back at some point.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:51 pm

Pace with the middle finger to size and hard on for athleticism this draft.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sat Apr 28, 2018 4:53 pm

Seems like a huge reach
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