Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:44 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Thrilho wrote: For me, CB isn't one of those premium positions. In the past 5 drafts there has only been one selected in the top 5 and four selected in the top 10. The Bears only allowed one 100 yard receiver this year with this current secondary and not much pass rush. Sure, they've now got Fuller and Amukamara making good money, but coming into this year most people thought of CB as a pretty big deficiency. So I basically think you can get by with decent corners with good scheming.

I'm actually really happy they re-signed their CB duo so they don't have to take a corner in the first. I think it's a lock they take Nelson if he's there (and for good reason), but if he's not I'd be all for Edmonds. He is the confirmed freak type you're talking about, and I think they could put him at edge for this year to take advantage of his athletic ability while mitigating his awareness/inexperience issues. Then down the road they could move him to his natural inside LB spot, as they fill the edge role. Basically, I just want them to get the guard situation taken care off and load up as much as possible on edge rushers.


CBs carry either the third or fourth highest franchise and transition tag prices, teams spend more on the position than any other by QB, and top CBs are among the highest paid players in the game this decade. Throw in that neither of the two starting CBs have been the picture of health and consistency as a pros (Fuller getting the tag anyway hints at the position's value), nickel and dime packages make up like 60% of defensive snaps this decade....While they haven't gone so high, they have been both the most drafted position overall and in the first round (10 combined, 5 apiece) the past two drafts, which is all I checked, and there's going to be another run this year in the first.

Another hot take - Edmunds is one of the most overrated players in the draft. First, I don't think teenagers belong in the NFL. That DT the Texans took at 10 however many years ago got his ass handed to him. Edmunds also just didn't test like a freak athlete.

Yeah, I had a feeling there would be a case to make for CBs using contracts but didn't feel like doing the research. The feeling on CBs is just my own, I just don't like spending top picks there.

As for Edmunds, time will tell. The video from Kollmann convinced me, but he's a polarizing. The comparison to Okoye is one I keep seeing on reddit, but I don't get the comp to a DT from a bunch of years ago just due to age. Also, on the not testing like a freak thing, I guess that's subjective. To me, a 6'4 250 lb LB who runs a 4.54 40 and can play well in coverage while getting 5.5 sacks as a 19 year old sounds good. But again, 19 year olds with awareness issues can be polarizing. I like the upside.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby MidoreX » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:13 pm

Derwood wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Old Style wrote:Are the Bears really going to use the #8 pick on a guard? Maybe I'm just meatballing here but that seems like a not so wise use of a pick that high.


I'm with this. Don't the Bears have CB issues? 8 is a great spot for Denzel Ward.


Many "experts" consider Nelson the best player in the draft


Hiestand being around makes me very comfortable potentially taking Nelson that high. He knows better than anyone what the kid is, and what he isn't. If they take him at 8, then hiestand signed off on it
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:22 pm

Thrilho wrote:Yeah, I had a feeling there would be a case to make for CBs using contracts but didn't feel like doing the research. The feeling on CBs is just my own, I just don't like spending top picks there.

As for Edmunds, time will tell. The video from Kollmann convinced me, but he's a polarizing. The comparison to Okoye is one I keep seeing on reddit, but I don't get the comp to a DT from a bunch of years ago just due to age. Also, on the not testing like a freak thing, I guess that's subjective. To me, a 6'4 250 lb LB who runs a 4.54 40 and can play well in coverage while getting 5.5 sacks as a 19 year old sounds good. But again, 19 year olds with awareness issues can be polarizing. I like the upside.


The explosition (vert, broad jump) and agility (the almight 3 cone) drills are much more telling than the 40 yard dash. I don't think there's anything subjective about that. So with Edmunds it's less just about his age alone, same with Okoye, rather more age and overstated athleticism at a non-premium position. Yeah there's always the development ceiling potential upside card, but the NFL is not exactly conducive to development. I'd rather have the Boise linebacker among non-pass rush LBs known for their coverage skills and wouldn't use a top ten pick on him.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:41 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Thrilho wrote:Yeah, I had a feeling there would be a case to make for CBs using contracts but didn't feel like doing the research. The feeling on CBs is just my own, I just don't like spending top picks there.

As for Edmunds, time will tell. The video from Kollmann convinced me, but he's a polarizing. The comparison to Okoye is one I keep seeing on reddit, but I don't get the comp to a DT from a bunch of years ago just due to age. Also, on the not testing like a freak thing, I guess that's subjective. To me, a 6'4 250 lb LB who runs a 4.54 40 and can play well in coverage while getting 5.5 sacks as a 19 year old sounds good. But again, 19 year olds with awareness issues can be polarizing. I like the upside.


The explosition (vert, broad jump) and agility (the almight 3 cone) drills are much more telling than the 40 yard dash. I don't think there's anything subjective about that.

The subjective piece is taking the cone drill over game film.

Edit: Here's his NFL.com profile:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine- ... 2c60099aca

"Edmunds combines elite size, speed and explosiveness into a productive, versatile linebacker package that will have evaluators salivating."

Comp: Urlacher

I'm not personally saying he's got Urlacher athletic ability, but NFL.com makes the comp and the video I linked seems to think he's got some generational athleticism. So maybe he sucks in the NFL, but I'm not the only one claiming he's got some good athleticism.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:46 pm

Thrilho wrote:The subjective piece is taking the cone drill over game film.

Edit: Here's his NFL.com profile:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine- ... 2c60099aca

"Edmunds combines elite size, speed and explosiveness into a productive, versatile linebacker package that will have evaluators salivating."

Comp: Urlacher

I'm not personally saying he's got Urlacher athletic ability, but NFL.com makes the comp and the video I linked seems to think he's got some generational athleticism. So maybe he sucks in the NFL, but I'm not the only one claiming he's got some good athleticism.


There seems to be be some confusion here over what subjective actually means. The three cone drill is objective, there’s no opinion that goes into formulating the number. Comparing him to Urlacher is subjective, a matter of opinion.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:01 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Thrilho wrote:The subjective piece is taking the cone drill over game film.

Edit: Here's his NFL.com profile:

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine- ... 2c60099aca

"Edmunds combines elite size, speed and explosiveness into a productive, versatile linebacker package that will have evaluators salivating."

Comp: Urlacher

I'm not personally saying he's got Urlacher athletic ability, but NFL.com makes the comp and the video I linked seems to think he's got some generational athleticism. So maybe he sucks in the NFL, but I'm not the only one claiming he's got some good athleticism.


There seems to be be some confusion here over whar subjective actually means. The three cone drill is objective, there’s no opinion that goes into formulating the number. Comparing him to Urlacher is subjective, a matter of opinion.

Cool, I've only got so much time to dedicate to dancing with you over semantics before I morph into a huge eye roll emoji, but yes the three cone drill is an objective activity. The quality of the results of the cone drill and the general definition of testing like an athletic freak are subjective.

Thrilho wrote: Also, on the not testing like a freak thing, I guess that's subjective. To me, a 6'4 250 lb LB who runs a 4.54 40 and can play well in coverage while getting 5.5 sacks as a 19 year old sounds good.


In the first part of this statement, I'm saying that it is subjective that he did or didn't test like a freak. In the second, I'm saying I don't care whether he did or didn't; his frame, speed, and production are good enough for me to think of him as pretty athletic and good. Maybe my first statement is wrong and he did test outside of some objective measure of a freak, but I stand by my second statement that it doesn't matter and that this conversation is boring.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:57 pm

There’s been plenty written on the most predictive combine exercises, tests meant to objectively measure athleticism, and the fact is that the 40 falls firmly behind the three cone (and the other drills I mentioned). Running fast in a straight line isn’t a great measure of outright athleticism, I honestly believe that this is common enough knowledge at this point. Objectively Edmunds isn’t a freak athlete. Obviously plenty of LBs have been successful without being freaks among freaks, but they go in the third or later rather than than top ten.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:14 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:There’s been plenty written on the most predictive combine exercises, tests meant to objectively measure athleticism, and the fact is that the 40 falls firmly behind the three cone (and the other drills I mentioned). Running fast in a straight line isn’t a great measure of outright athleticism, I honestly believe that this is common enough knowledge at this point. Objectively Edmunds isn’t a freak athlete. Obviously plenty of LBs have been successful without being freaks among freaks, but they go in the third or later rather than than top ten.

One nice thing about reddit's format is that this conversation could be collapsed and down voted a place where nobody would see it.

But if you're going to lecture me on the objective fact, I'd like you to point me to the source for your definition of a freak athlete. You say he's objectively not a freak athlete, but the title of that video I posted is "Tremaine Edmunds is a freak of nature...with one big flaw." So is this Brett Kollmann guy misstating an objective fact or is it possible that your definition of freak athlete just your definition of a freak athlete?

He didn't perform up to your standards at the combine and you don't like him as a prospect. That's cool. But he's probaby going to go in the top 10-12 picks and if he doesn't have much in the way of experience or awareness it's probably going to have a lot to do with the fact that an NFL decision maker disagreed with you on the level of his athleticism.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:28 pm

All I have to do is show he’s not?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/off-los-linebacker/

I know that doesn’t have quite the standing as the subjective opinion of a guy in a Youtube clip, but it covers what I need to cover.

Not once did I say I do not like Edmunds btw. I liked him plenty when he wasn’t a first rounder let alone a guy getting top ten talk. Or when he wasn’t referred to as a freak. Plus I haven’t talked about his experience, he actually has more than Vander Esch a LB I have been talking up for his athleticism.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:05 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:All I have to do is show he’s not?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/off-los-linebacker/

I know that doesn’t have quite the standing as the subjective opinion of a guy in a Youtube clip, but it covers what I need to cover.

Not once did I say I do not like Edmunds btw. I liked him plenty when he wasn’t a first rounder let alone a guy getting top ten talk. Or when he wasn’t refereed to as a freak. Plus I haven’t talked about his experience, he actually has more than Vander Esch a LB I have been talking up for his athleticism.

What part of this link are you pointing me to? I see the part where he's the tallest guy in the table, nearly the heaviest, he has the longest arms and the third fastest 40 time. I see the part where he's got a middling benchpress count of 19 and a not so good broad jump. Am I missing it or did he just not do a whole bunch of drills, including the 3 cone? It would certainly not be uncommon for a guy who is known as a good athlete to skip stuff like the cone drill simply because he doesn't want his value boiled down in this very way.

Let me know if it's in there and I'm missing it or if you can find some other link that has his agility measurables. I did find this blurb about top day three combine performers:

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-bro ... -115839456

Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds - It is remarkable that Edmunds is only 19-years old. He is more physically impressive than any other linebacker in this draft class. He is a brick wall of a player. Combined with those physical characteristics, he ran a 4.54 in the 40-yard dash. His 40-yard dash mark ranked No. 5 among linebackers but each of the four who finished ahead of him weighed at least 17 pounds lighter. He looked great during on-field drills showing seamless transitions and a comfort catching the football, which was not common at his position group.


That last bit, the seamless transitions and coverage ability is where Kollmann gives him the most praise. He does play up the sideline to sideline speed, but he talks Edmunds up as a big linebacker who plays like a safety. He shows him covering slot receivers or running step for step down the sideline with running backs, and said that VT used him that way a lot. Being good at coverage seems like it would take a good bit of agility and quickness.

Ultimately, I don't know a lot about what constitutes freak athleticism. I could watch Edmunds tape and Bostic's tape and I can't really tell a difference. I'm going more on the opinions of guys I assume to be smarter than me. Like Brett Kollmann, guy who does this tape stuff for a living and called Eddie Jackson last year. Or Voch Lombardi, dude who told me Trubisky is good. Or NFL.com, aka pretty ok source for football information. Or basically any mock draft.

They're all saying he's got really good upside and is very athletic. From there, I want a guy who can rush the passer. Knowing that the Bears have a 3-4 genius as their DC, I'd like to take the biggest, fastest, freakiest dude possible and let the genius guy figure out the rest. He may be raw so it could take a while and he could be not that good. I was happy with the Floyd pick and he hasn't been great, but I still think we're going to be very happy with that pick. I think it would be great to get another really fast guy on the other side. But if they take Davenport or Smith or some other guy I'll be happy because it's a LB and smarter people than me picked him.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:16 pm

And I suppose if they get a corner or Fitzpatrick I should probably still be happy because they're getting a pretty good player and that would mean the Bears have some kind of other plan for edge and guard. Right now I just see those two as the only glaring holes on the roster, and I know edge is a pretty popular one so it'll be hard to fill late in the draft.

Edit: I'll just add here cause I've posted so much on this page. I saw your guy Vander Esch at the top of that table with the best pSPARQ athleticism score and he does look interesting. Basically same size as Edmunds, 4.65 40, 39.5 inch vert, solid enough at the other athleticism stuff to rate at the top of the list, in the pics he doesn't appear to be a Shea McClellin phantom 250.

Then, apparently Pete Prisco is mocking him to the Bears here with a Kuechly comp.

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears ... -117046788

I'd rather get a guy who can rush the passer but if they get a potential Kuechly I'd be cool with that.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:47 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:All I have to do is show he’s not?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/off-los-linebacker/

I know that doesn’t have quite the standing as the subjective opinion of a guy in a Youtube clip, but it covers what I need to cover.

Not once did I say I do not like Edmunds btw. I liked him plenty when he wasn’t a first rounder let alone a guy getting top ten talk. Or when he wasn’t referred to as a freak. Plus I haven’t talked about his experience, he actually has more than Vander Esch a LB I have been talking up for his athleticism.



Im confused. Hes on the bottom of the list but doesnt have the “threesigmascore” or whatever the hell it is
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:24 am

I really think this boils down to where we were at earlier - which is that you seem to be confused about what makes an objective vs. subjective analysis. I am aware of what the hype is and all the positive subjective takes, don't really require links for that because I'm not arguing over their existence. Edmunds may turn out to be excellent but on paper he's not a freak athlete - as the link provided shows - nor does he play a premium position. If I'm risking a top 10 pick on that kind of player the choice would be someome like Smith from Georgia, who went into the year as a strong first rounder despite that and never faltered.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:31 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:All I have to do is show he’s not?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/off-los-linebacker/

I know that doesn’t have quite the standing as the subjective opinion of a guy in a Youtube clip, but it covers what I need to cover.

Not once did I say I do not like Edmunds btw. I liked him plenty when he wasn’t a first rounder let alone a guy getting top ten talk. Or when he wasn’t referred to as a freak. Plus I haven’t talked about his experience, he actually has more than Vander Esch a LB I have been talking up for his athleticism.



Im confused. Hes on the bottom of the list but doesnt have the “threesigmascore” or whatever the hell it is


He skipped key drills so is not actually ranked.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Fri Apr 06, 2018 12:41 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:I really think this boils down to where we were at earlier - which is that you seem to be confused about what makes an objective vs. subjective analysis. I am aware of what the hype is and all the positive subjective takes, don't really require links for that because I'm not arguing over their existence. Edmunds may turn out to be excellent but on paper he's not a freak athlete - as the link provided shows - nor does he play a premium position. If I'm risking a top 10 pick on that kind of player the choice would be someome like Smith from Georgia, who went into the year as a strong first rounder despite that and never faltered.

Got it. The assertions that Edmunds is not a freak athlete and OLB is not a premium position are objective fact and your link that is missing results for Edmunds in 4 out of 6 categories proves something but you refuse to explain how. Glad this is cleared up.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:09 am





























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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby Thrilho » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:15 am

Thank you for that David. Trubisky is going to be so good.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:31 am

Thrilho wrote:Thank you for that David. Trubisky is going to be so good.


no problem...just added 2-3 more clips
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:25 pm

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:13 pm

My hope is that we can work a deal with AZ for the 15 pick, their 3rd, and their 2019 1st. They need a franchise QB and they should be desperate enough to trade up for one, and their roster sucks enough that they should still be a bottom 10 team this year, if not bottom 5.

So I was thinking 8 and our higher 4th for those 3 picks. Thoughts?
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:34 pm

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:37 pm

David wrote:


It will be interesting to see if this pushes us into Ridley
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:38 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
David wrote:


It will be interesting to see if this pushes us into Ridley


I'm damn near positive the Bears will match.
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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby David » Fri Apr 06, 2018 6:44 pm

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Re: Bears 2018 Offseason: Matt Nagy Hired as Head Coach

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:37 am

I wanted to stay far away from this thread after yesterday's travesty BUT I noticed something new. I hadn't closed the tab on my phone yesterday so boom this thread came up. If I'm reading correctly, Edmunds is considered a pass rushing/edge candidate as well as a freak coverage linebacker? That is even easier to squash.

Pass rushers in the draft are well studied. In 2011 a poster named WALDO posted on a random football forum formulas for predicting pass rushers and basically changed the whole game for draftniks. The WALDO formulas were incredibly accurate and sparked further works by Justis Mosqueda with his Force Players work as well as Football Outsider's SackSeer. Other metrics such as the Sparq and Twitch took similar concepts to all the positions, but pass rushers started it for me so that is where my confidence is (I'm also liking it for CBs and OTs more and more). The Seahawks are probably the most popular org to dive into these analytics, but slowly and surely these are becoming more mainstream. You might also note that guys like Ware, Bosa, and slam dunk top 3 pick Von Miller did all the relevant drills, no problems and no excuses, as has basically every relevant pass rusher in the past couple decades.

Anyway - if you're actually interested in finding a pass rusher I would suggest reading the links and checking out SackSEERs list this year. If you want a pass rusher who can play LB in the first I would go Harold Landry from BC though SackSEER actually likes Davenport and Chubb a little more. Pass rushing isn't Edmunds' game in the first place but, if it were, the lack of sacks (I think he had 10 in college) + non-elite workout would make him a massive gamble and terrible value in the top ten.
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