2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

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2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:46 pm

Another year, another mock selection.

Interestingly, the NCAA is now using the tier criteria that I'd been putting together for this in the past for their selection software, instead of RPI. It's still based off the RPI rank, but baby steps I guess.

Even better, someone did all the work of doing the nitty gritty reports on all the potential tournament teams, so that saves me a ton of work and saves us a step.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/nitty-team

So thanks for that.

If you want to participate, poat or pm me by end of next Tuesday 3/6 two lists:

-Top 20 teams from those on that site
-Bottom 20 teams from those on the site

The site has the RPI top 105 plus the conference champs for each conference (which, spoiler, was the exact list of teams I put up for consideration each year), which should be plenty. If for some reason there is a team not on that list that you think should get considered, say something.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:56 pm

Murray State wins the OVC to get the first auto bid. Definitely the best OVC team by far, their profile is arguably borderline for at-large consideration, though their best win of the season happened to be last night.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:09 pm

The state of Illinois is guaranteed to have a tourney team this year as Illinois State plays Loyola-Chicago in the MVC championship today. Loyola has an outside shot at an at-large if they lose but not super likely
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:11 pm

Also many of you probably know of this site already but there’s a really good site out there that is basically a free KenPom

http://www.barttorvik.com
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:58 pm

Radford wins the Big South, nowhere near at-large worthy, their best win was beating UC Davis on a neutral court. They were the 2 seed in the Big South, so they weren't terrible, but they are a borderline opening round team as is given no other upsets.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:03 pm

Loyola wins the MVC auto bid, preventing potential bid theft. Loyola has a legit at-large profile, their best win being at Florida, worst loss being at home to Indiana State. They have an RPI of 28, so we'll see how closely the real committee treats that number still, but even their predictive metrics are pretty good.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:10 am

Michigan wins the Big Ten, which...they were going to the tournament anyway.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:10 pm

Lipscomb wins the A-Sun as the 2 seed, and while they played well in conference, overall they're probably the worst team with an auto bid so far.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:02 pm

I'm sure you can all guess the teams but just curious, which resume is better, or are they pretty even?

Team A:

RPI - 15
KenPom - 6
Bart Torvik - 6
SOS - 108
NC SOS - 250
VS Top 50 - 2-4 (2 H, 1 R, 3 N)
VS Top 100 - 7-4
Q1 Record - 3-4
Losses outside of Q1 - 0

Team B:

RPI - 13
KenPom - 9
Bart Torvik - 7
SOS - 62
NC SOS - 283
VS Top 50 - 6-4 (3 H, 5 R, 2 N)
VS Top 100 - 10-6
Q1 Record - 6-5
Losses outside of Q1 - 2 (including a Q3 loss)
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:03 pm

Iona wins the MAAC as the 4 seed after top seed and decent quality Rider took their worst loss of the year in the quarters. Ionas best win is a home win vs Rider, with no other even decent wins of note.

UNC Greensboro wins the Southern as the top seed, and are a decent quality tourney team, with a win at NC State and 3 Q2 wins.

St. Marys lost to BYU in the WCC semis which puts them in the precarious position of having a worse profile than Loyola going into Selection Sunday.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby weis21 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:27 pm

I always really like following this thread every year so thanks to bukie (and umfan and others that contribute).

it's by far the busiest time of year for me so it's hard to keep up with all that's going on but i love college basketball and this makes it way easier. please keep doing this and thank you.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:06 am

Reminder that if you want to participate just get me the top 20 and bottom 20 on the nolan site by the end of the night.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:52 am

My methodology that I'm certainly not sold on.

G1: Wins worth 2, losses worth .5
G2: WIns worth 1, losses worth 1
G3: Wins worth .5, losses worth 2
G4: Wins worth nothing, losses worth 3.

Rounded up halves on losses, and down on wins.

Did not strictly adhere to it, but just ran the numbers for the teams off the nitty gritty in order to kind of group teams in similar areas with raw numbers, then worked from those groups individual breakdowns (obviously not all wins or losses in a group are created equal) to try to establish a hierarchy
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 12:57 pm

Gonzaga won the WCC to prevent BYU from likely stealing an at-large bid.

Wright State wins the Horizon as the 2 seed. Not the best profile, their best win being at Northern Kentucky.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:25 pm

Charleston wins the CAA as the 1 seed, with a not terrible profile. Their best 3 wins were all Northeastern, who was probably the better team overall but could never find a way to beat Charleston. Probably a 14ish seed.

LIU Brooklyn wins the NEC as a 4 seed, and is now probably the weakest team in the field as an auto bid. Congrats on your play-in game, LIU-Brooklyn!

South Dakota State wins the Summt as the top seed and by far the best team in that conference. Their result metrics are much better than their predictive metrics, but they do have a neutral win against Buffalo as a Q1 victory, and no really bad losses, they could be looking at a 13 seed.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:34 pm

Missed the deadline but if can give me til like noon today I’ll submit something
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:38 pm

My top 20:
1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Cincinnati
6. Purdue
7. Xavier
8. North Carolina
9. Michigan State
10. Michigan
11. Auburn
12. Texas Tech
13. Gonzaga
14. Tennessee
15. Wichita State
16. Clemson
17. West Virginia
18. Ohio State
19. Nevada
20. Kentucky

Bottom 20:
Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
SWAC
LIU-Brooklyn (NEC)
Florida Gulf Coast
SE Louisiana (Southland)
UNC Asheville
Radford (Big South)
Penn (Ivy)
Northern Kentucky
Wagner
Iona (MAAC)
Bradley
Lipscomb (A-Sun)
Fresno State
Wright State (Horizon)
Southern Illinois
Furman
UC Davis (Big West)
Montana (Big Sky)
William and Mary
East Tennessee State
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:38 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Missed the deadline but if can give me til like noon today I’ll submit something

DO IT
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:51 pm

Top 20

1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Xavier
6. Purdue
7. UNC
8. Auburn
9. Cincinnati
10. Michigan
11. MSU
12. Tennessee
13. Wichita State
14. Texas Tech
15. Clemson
16. Gonzaga
17. Ohio State
18. West Virginia
19. Kentucky
20. Houston

I'm not sure I can make a good bottom 20. By SWAC, you just mean whoever wins the SWAC right? It has Grambling on there but listed as ineligable

My stab at it, mostly in order on the site:

Bethune-Cookman
SWAC Winner
LIU-Brooklyn
Southeastern Louisiana
FGCU
UNC-A
Radford
Penn
Wagner
Iona
Northern Kentucky
Lipscomb
Bradley
Fresno State
Wright State
SIU
Marshall
Furman
W&M
UC Davis
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:01 pm

Here's what I sent to bukie last night:

VA
Nova
Duke
KU
Xavier
Purdue
North Carolina
Michigan State
Cincinnati
Texas Tech
Auburn
Tennessee
Michigan
Gonzaga
Clemson
West Virginia
Wichita State
Ohio State
Kentucky
Florida

Southern Illinois
Toledo
Furman
Bucknell
Utah Valley
South Dakota
UC Davis
Penn
Lipscomb
Wright State
Northern Kentucky
UNC Asheville
SE Lousiana
FL Gulf Coast
Iona
Radford
Wagner
Long Island
SWAC(Grambling is ineligible for the tournament due to APR)
Bethune Cookman
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:23 pm

Based on that, there's a clear top 4 on the SCurve for now:
1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Duke
4. Kansas

Based on bottom 20s, here are the clear one bid leagues:
1. MEAC
2. SWAC
3. NEC (LIU-Brooklyn)
4. Big South (Radford)
5. Southland
6. Horizon (Wright State)
7. Atlantic Sun (Lipscomb)
8. Big West
9. Big Sky

Eliminating every team that everyone picked for bottom 20, we're still left with 95 teams for at most 64 bids, so that can be pared down another 20 yet with room to spare.

Next step is to rank the one bid champs/potential champs from the bottom up and rank the 2-3-4 seeds from the top 20s we posted, along with choosing the next 12 teams and the bottom 20 to pare down again.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:45 pm

For the one bid champs, are we just ranking those 9 teams, ranking the one bid teams beyond those 9, or ranking all one bid champs including those 9?

ETA: And are we eliminating 20 more teams beyond the initial 20 we personally sent, or is there a group of 20 who are out of at-large consideration we should be removing?
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:25 pm

Eliminate 20 beyond the 20 we already sent, I'll list them all later when I don't have to do everything via mobile.

One bid rankings should include all potential single bid leagues which is all outside the top 7 (ACC, SEC, BE, B12, B1G, P12, American)
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 6:37 pm

Thanks.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:55 pm

Non-Powers

MEAC
SWAC
LIU
Radford
Iona
Southland (SE Lousiana)
Wright State
Lipscomb
Ivy (Penn)
UC Davis (Big West)
Patriot (Bucknell)
Sun Belt (Louisiana)
Big Sky (Montana)
UNC Greensboro
Charleston
America East (Vermont)
MAC (Buffalo)
South Dakota State
Murray State
Loyola
WAC (NMSU)
CUSA (MTSU)
A10 (URI)
MWC (Nevada)
Gonzaga
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