2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:23 pm

Something oddly satisfying about hearing Auburn getting beat down. Can't put my finger on it, specifically...
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:51 pm

bukie wrote:Something oddly satisfying about hearing Auburn getting beat down. Can't put my finger on it, specifically...


That something also almost got in a fist fight with Bama's strength coach after the game.

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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 2:59 am

Next 12:
13. Gonzaga (WCC)
14. West Virginia
15. Tennessee
16. Ohio State
17. Wichita State
18. Clemson
19. Florida
20. Houston
21. Nevada
22. Kentucky
23. TCU
24. Butler

Bottom 12 Auto bids:
58. Charleston (CAA)
57. Bucknell (Patriot)
56. UNC Greensboro (Southern)
55. Big Sky (Montana)
54. MAC (Buffalo)
53. South Dakota State (Summit)
52. CUSA (Old Dominion)
51. America East (Vermont)
50. Sun Belt (Louisiana)
49. Murray State (OVC)
48. WAC (New Mexico State)
47. Loyola Chicago (MVC)

Top 12 in consideration:
St Bonaventure
Alabama 
Providence
Virginia Tech
Louisville
USC
UCLA
St. Mary's
Kansas State
NC State
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State

Bottom 20 in consideration:
Boise State
Notre Dame
Nebraska
Marquette
Utah
Temple
Oregon
Mississippi State
BYU 
Rider
Washington
Maryland
UCF
Georgia
Penn State
Colorado
South Carolina
Stanford
LSU
Boston College
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:03 am

In bid theft news, Nevada is trailing by 30 at the half in the MWC semis.

Arizona is down 4 at the half to UCLA.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:31 am

Current S-Curve (42 teams)
1. Virginia
2. Villanova
3. Duke
4. Kansas
5. Xavier
6. Purdue
7. North Carolina
8. Cincinnati
9. Michigan State
10. Auburn
11. Michigan
12. Texas Tech
13. Tennessee
14. Gonzaga (WCC)
15. West Virginia
16. Wichita State
17. Clemson
18. Ohio State
19. Kentucky
20. Florida
...
47. Loyola Chicago (MVC)
48. WAC (New Mexico State)
49. CUSA (Western Kentucky)
50. Murray State (OVC)
51. South Dakota State (Summit)
52. America East (Vermont)
53. MAC (Buffalo)
54. UNC Greensboro (Southern)
55. Sun Belt (Louisiana)
56. Charleston (CAA)
57. Big Sky (Montana)
58. Bucknell (Patriot)
59. Big West (UC Davis)
60. Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun)
61. Wright State (Horizon)
62. Ivy (Penn)
63. Iona (MAAC)
64. Southland (Stephen F Austin)
65. Radford (Big South)
66. LIU-Brooklyn (NEC)
67. SWAC (Texas Southern)
68. MEAC (Hampton)

Also currently in the field (24):
Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas
Butler
Creighton
Florida State
Kansas State
Houston
Louisville
Miami FL
Missouri
NC State
Nevada
Oklahoma
Providence
Seton Hall
Rhode Island
St Bonaventure
Texas
TCU
Texas A&M
UCLA
USC
Virginia Tech

Still in discussion for at most 2 bids (8 teams):
Baylor 
Marquette 
Middle Tennessee 
New Mexico State 
Notre Dame 
Oklahoma State 
St Mary's
Syracuse 
Last edited by bukie on Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:31 am

Now it's getting manageable.

- Rank the 24 teams we have in the field
- Rank the 8 teams up for potential consideration barring bid theft
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:35 am

Just realized Bethune-Cookman lost in the MEAC quarters, but it doesn't really matter as the winner of that conference is the bottom of the barrel as is.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:51 pm

There is now one more auto bid we need to seed, in the MWC, it'll be either San Diego State or New Mexico.

That also means there is one less at-large bid to seed, so the 8 remaining teams in consideration now get at most one bid.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:54 pm

West Virginia beat Texas Tech, which tempts me to swap them on the S-Curve.

In terms of other potential bid thieves, Memphis could still win the American, and St. Joe's/Davidson could still win the A-10.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:57 pm

Duke and Xavier also lost in their respective conference semis, and UNC's win could prompt them to be bumped up some.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 12:59 pm

UC Davis lost in the Big West semis, so that auto bid will now go to the Cal State Fullerton/UC Irvine winner.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby UK » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:09 pm

I have a hard time believing that the Bonnies aren't a lock to get in.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:47 pm

My hot take alert for St. Bonaventure is I like their at-large profile better than Rhode Island, personally.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:49 pm

The teams I don't like are Oklahoma and Arizona State. Both have a good result profile but both have been nothing near tournament teams for 2 months now.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:59 pm

My Next 25 in field (I miscounted, there are 25 not 24):
21. Houston
22. Arizona (Pac-12)
23. TCU
24. Butler
25. Seton Hall
26. Creighton
27. Texas A&M
28. Virginia Tech
29. Nevada
30. Arkansas
31. USC
32. Providence
33. Miami FL
34. Texas
35. Missouri
36. Alabama
37. NC State
38. Kansas State
39. UCLA
40. St Bonaventure
41. Rhode Island (A-10)
42. Louisville
43. Florida State
44. Oklahoma
45. Arizona State

I would slot the MWC champ behind Loyola, New Mexico State and Western Kentucky in the auto bid pecking order (so they would be 49, WKU 48, NMST 47, Loyola 46).

And the other 8 potential bubble teams in order for what turns out to be no available bids, unless we bump teams already in the field:
St Mary's
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State
Notre Dame
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Baylor
Syracuse

Which means to me, NM State has to win the auto bid to get in the field.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:16 pm

UMBC won at Vermont to win the America East. Their profile is potentially first four worthy, they're about even with Radford.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:50 pm

Rhode Island trailing by 8 late in the first half of the A-10 semis.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:58 pm

UNC Central wins the MEAC. Welcome to the 68 seed, UNC Central.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:59 pm

Louisiana loses in the Sun Belt semis, leaving the winner as either UT Arlington, Georgia State or Georgia Southern.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:15 am

I’m not saying they belong but OK St and ASU have ridiculous wins
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:32 am

Today's results:
Virginia wins the ACC, easy #1 overall seed.
Villanova wins the Big East, easy #2 overall seed.
Kansas wins the Big 12, #1 seed solidified, maybe #3 overall now.
Cincy-Houston in the American final, no bid theft possible, though Houston may be higher than Wichita State now.
Rhode Island-Davidson in the A-10 final, Davidson could steal a bid. St. Bonaventure's profile takes a hit.
UT Arlington-Georgia State in the Sun Belt final.
Penn-Harvard in the Ivy final.
UMBC wins the America East, potential first four team.
UNC Central wins the MEAC, definite team #68.
Texas Southern wins the SWAC, definite team #67.
San Diego State wins the MVC, slotted in a lower end 12/higher end 13 seed.
Montana wins the Big SKy as expected.
Marshall wins the CUSA, another 12/13 seed.
Stephen F Austin wins the Southland, about the same profile as SE Louisiana, so same spot.
Kentucky-Tennessee in the SEC final, no bid thieves.
Buffalo wins the MAC as expected.
Big West, Pac-12, and WAC finals still ongoing.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 11, 2018 5:01 am

New Mexico St wins the WAC.
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:00 am

I do not like SD St, I’d drop them below Murray at least
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:01 am

And should we slot Davidson somewhere tomorrow?
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Re: 2018 NCAA Mock Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:29 pm

Yes, we should account for Davidson somewhere in the S-Curve, so we have a spot for Davidson should they win.

Also, Cal State Fullerton and Arizona won the Big West and Pac-12 respectively late last night.
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