Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

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Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:31 pm

Finally, the Bears play a game on Sunday, at noon. The firm regularly scheduled game of the season. I will not have to pace my drinking for a late game. I will be able to wake up and start cooking food that I will be eating at a proper lunch hour, instead of spacing it all out throughout the day.

Chicago is currently a ~2.5 point home favorite against the high flying and free wheeling Bucs, but that might change depending on the outcome of this Monday Night matchup with the Steelers. There once was an old adage that you didn't want to face a good team that is in danger of falling to 0-3 (or 0-2-1 in PIT's case), because they will almost always give max effort in a desperate attempt to finally see the win column. Tampa is a comfortable 2-0 in a division with two other 2 win teams. Tampa's wins are against two more 2 win teams. They are not to be taken lightly.

The Bears defense is going to have to come up big again, because the offense shows no signs of being able to participate in anything resembling a shootout. I don't think any team is going to fear the Bears trying to set up a 2-minute offense for the win. They will need to slog through some 7-minute drive to get 3 points and then hope the defense scores a touchdown or two. The good thing is, the Mack-led defense is actually good enough to do it. Tampa will have a short week, and will be coming off a game against a team that traditionally beats you up, win lose or draw.

Chicago has two ugly wins under their belt, and if they can make it to 3-1, then the playoffs stop being a dream and start being a realistic possibility. If the offense can actually start scoring points, then thoughts of a division title are also much less unreasonable than anybody would have thought coming into the season. Because, if you haven't noticed, the Bears are officially in first place in their division.

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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Brian707 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:57 pm

I will be attending this game and tailgating. I need to decide which encased meats to buy. Getting there by 730 and hope to make some chorizo and eggs for breakfast then consume a few IPAs before cooking lunch and heading to the game.

It will be interesting to see what happens tonight, baring an injury or Fitzpatrick totally sucking, he's next Sunday's starter.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 2:58 pm

I guess my question is, who starts at QB for Tampa? Winston’s suspension will be over right? But if Fitzpatrick has another monster game tonight there could be a question
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:02 pm

UMFan83 wrote:I guess my question is, who starts at QB for Tampa? Winston’s suspension will be over right? But if Fitzpatrick has another monster game tonight there could be a question

Reports are it's Fitz's job to lose, so he'll start up to the point he lays an egg.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:41 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:I guess my question is, who starts at QB for Tampa? Winston’s suspension will be over right? But if Fitzpatrick has another monster game tonight there could be a question

Reports are it's Fitz's job to lose, so he'll start up to the point he lays an egg.


then lets help Fitz lay a giant horsefeathering egg so Winston can get his job back
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 7:22 pm

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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:18 pm

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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby r_mack » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:55 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:https://sportsmockery.com/2018/09/waiting-for-the-elusive-mitch-trubisky-breakout-it-could-be-near/

Tired of the excuses. What was the last QB that was so terrible in his first 15 games that at some point reached his full potential value? I can't think of any.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:59 pm

r_mack wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:https://sportsmockery.com/2018/09/waiting-for-the-elusive-mitch-trubisky-breakout-it-could-be-near/

Tired of the excuses. What was the last QB that was so terrible in his first 15 games that at some point reached his full potential value? I can't think of any.

Goff and Wentz were pretty bad in their first ~15 starts, right?
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby r_mack » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:01 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:https://sportsmockery.com/2018/09/waiting-for-the-elusive-mitch-trubisky-breakout-it-could-be-near/

Tired of the excuses. What was the last QB that was so terrible in his first 15 games that at some point reached his full potential value? I can't think of any.

Goff and Wentz were pretty bad in their first ~15 starts, right?

Wentz struggled by the end of his rookie year but he for sure showed flashes at some points during that season that showed he might be something. Goff is a good comparison but he got off to a great start in his 2nd year (including a 292 yard, 3 TD game in week 3) and never looked back. Do people think Trubisky is close to turning the corner, because I don't.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:10 am

r_mack wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
r_mack wrote:Tired of the excuses. What was the last QB that was so terrible in his first 15 games that at some point reached his full potential value? I can't think of any.

Goff and Wentz were pretty bad in their first ~15 starts, right?

Wentz struggled by the end of his rookie year but he for sure showed flashes at some points during that season that showed he might be something. Goff is a good comparison but he got off to a great start in his 2nd year (including a 292 yard, 3 TD game in week 3) and never looked back. Do people think Trubisky is close to turning the corner, because I don't.

Just eyeballing it, Goff really took off on game 16 with a 146 passer rating game and his two lowest games since then are a 79 and 93 rating game. Mitch's high point thru 15 hasn't been as high yet, but just eyeballing it, it might be close overall. Maybe I'll sum up and plug in the stats later and find out.

ETA - Wentz from game 16 onward has had about 4 mid 80s passer rating games as his low. Games 6-15 of his career were down overall. Will add him and a few other young guys to the thru 15 game list later.

Let's hope that game 16 is the turnaround point for Mitch, haha.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby rawaction » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:52 am

Goff thru 15 games: 259-449, 3119 yards, 18 TD, 11 INT, 82.25 QB rating
Wentz thru 15 games: 352-564, 3537 yards, 14 TD, 14 INT, 78.15 QB rating
Trubisky thru 15 games: 268-434, 2784 yards, 9 TD, 10 INT, 77.6 QB rating

Goff since: 220-334, 2715 yards, 21 TDs, 5 INT, 105.56 QB rating
Wentz since: 317-520, 3796 yards, 36 TDs, 8 INT, 99.97 QB rating
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:58 am

rawaction wrote:Goff thru 15 games: 259-449, 3119 yards, 18 TD, 11 INT, 82.25 QB rating
Wentz thru 15 games: 352-564, 3537 yards, 14 TD, 14 INT, 78.15 QB rating
Trubisky thru 15 games: 268-434, 2784 yards, 9 TD, 10 INT, 77.6 QB rating

Goff since: 220-334, 2715 yards, 21 TDs, 5 INT, 105.56 QB rating
Wentz since: 317-520, 3796 yards, 36 TDs, 8 INT, 99.97 QB rating

Nice. I'm sure you could play with arbitrary endpoints to make some other point seem more significant, but still hopeful to look at. Surprised that Mitch isn't as far behind on attempts from Goff's pace.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:58 am

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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:04 am

Manning had a 71.2 rating, 56.7% completion percentage and 28 interceptions his rookie year.

I think he turned out okay.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby rawaction » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:13 am

Trubisky is 10- 27, TD, INT on throws over 10 yards this year.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UK » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:17 am

rawaction wrote:Trubisky is 10- 27, TD, INT on throws over 10 yards this year.


He has 27 completions behind the line of scrimmage. I don't know what came 1st, Nagy's playcalling restricting Trubisky or is Trubisky restricting Nagy?
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:17 am

rawaction wrote:Trubisky is 10- 27, TD, INT on throws over 10 yards this year.



I saw another stat on reddit where from under center he has 5 TD and 0 INT in his career and from shotgun he has 4 TD and 10 INT. His YPA is higher under center too
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:28 am

UK wrote:
rawaction wrote:Trubisky is 10- 27, TD, INT on throws over 10 yards this year.


He has 27 completions behind the line of scrimmage. I don't know what came 1st, Nagy's playcalling restricting Trubisky or is Trubisky restricting Nagy?

I'm pretty sure it's Trubiskys limitations.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:30 am

r_mack wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:https://sportsmockery.com/2018/09/waiting-for-the-elusive-mitch-trubisky-breakout-it-could-be-near/

Tired of the excuses. What was the last QB that was so terrible in his first 15 games that at some point reached his full potential value? I can't think of any.


understood, but I think the point of the strength of the defenses he's faced this year is also a fair point.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:30 am

Tim wrote:Manning had a 71.2 rating, 56.7% completion percentage and 28 interceptions his rookie year.

I think he turned out okay.

Yea, but that (and the Brees one above) was like 20+ years ago. Passing stats should be up.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby rawaction » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:31 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
UK wrote:
rawaction wrote:Trubisky is 10- 27, TD, INT on throws over 10 yards this year.


He has 27 completions behind the line of scrimmage. I don't know what came 1st, Nagy's playcalling restricting Trubisky or is Trubisky restricting Nagy?

I'm pretty sure it's Trubiskys limitations.


Did see this type of play calling in the playoff game in KC though. But I'm willing to put this on Mitch until proven otherwise.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UK » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:35 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
UK wrote:
rawaction wrote:Trubisky is 10- 27, TD, INT on throws over 10 yards this year.


He has 27 completions behind the line of scrimmage. I don't know what came 1st, Nagy's playcalling restricting Trubisky or is Trubisky restricting Nagy?

I'm pretty sure it's Trubiskys limitations.


Given Trubisky's inaccuracy, I'm tending to agree which is unfortunate. I'd rather have horsefeathers playcalling at this point which is easier to correct.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:40 am

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Tim wrote:Manning had a 71.2 rating, 56.7% completion percentage and 28 interceptions his rookie year.

I think he turned out okay.

Yea, but that (and the Brees one above) was like 20+ years ago. Passing stats should be up.

The point was to answer rmack's assertion that quarterbacks don't perform poorly for their first 16 games and then reach their potential. Possibly the best quarterback ever had that very pattern.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby rawaction » Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:41 am

Tim wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Tim wrote:Manning had a 71.2 rating, 56.7% completion percentage and 28 interceptions his rookie year.

I think he turned out okay.

Yea, but that (and the Brees one above) was like 20+ years ago. Passing stats should be up.

The point was to answer rmack's assertion that quarterbacks don't perform poorly for their first 16 games and then reach their potential. Possibly the best quarterback ever had that very pattern.


I hate to use this excuse, but Trubisky also has less experience than any of these QBs who have all pretty much universally struggled early on. I don't hate that excuse because it isn't valid, but I hate it because that's part of the argument to not have drafted him at #2.
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