Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:45 pm

Luckily the Cubs will have WC1 all sewn up by Sunday so we can watch this game without conflict.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Derwood » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:36 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Brian wrote:
Bears fans are genetically engineered to pine for horsefeathers backup QBs to play


Because we always had questionable at best starters.



So we should default to the horsefeathers back ups?


If the Bears start Daniel, then Trubisky becomes the horsefeathers backup that we all pine for. It's the circle of life
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby David » Fri Sep 28, 2018 3:00 pm

#1 defense in the league per DVOA after 3 weeks

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

10th in the league overall (27th in offense, 9th in st)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

the nice thing is it's reasonable enough to hope/expect that the offense can be a decent amount better than that (because, well, that's really bad and they have a lot of talent and should hopefully progress as trubisky picks up the offense more) while the defense is probably in the territory (not necessarily #1) it should be.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Brian707 » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:17 pm

It was nice to see Minnesota lose last night. Makes it easier for the division, although locking up the #1 seed in the NFC is now tougher. LOL
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:19 pm

Brian707 wrote:It was nice to see Minnesota lose last night. Makes it easier for the division, although locking up the #1 seed in the NFC is now tougher. LOL

I don't think it would be that hard to go into LA in January and pull off a win.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby KingCubsFan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:25 pm

David wrote:#1 defense in the league per DVOA after 3 weeks

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

10th in the league overall (27th in offense, 9th in st)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

the nice thing is it's reasonable enough to hope/expect that the offense can be a decent amount better than that (because, well, that's really bad and they have a lot of talent and should hopefully progress as trubisky picks up the offense more) while the defense is probably in the territory (not necessarily #1) it should be.

They move the ball well on offense and eat up a ton of clock. They simply can't execute in the red zone. Is success in the redzone similar to BABIP in that it will eventually regress to the mean over time?
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:30 pm

KingCubsFan wrote:
David wrote:#1 defense in the league per DVOA after 3 weeks

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

10th in the league overall (27th in offense, 9th in st)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff

the nice thing is it's reasonable enough to hope/expect that the offense can be a decent amount better than that (because, well, that's really bad and they have a lot of talent and should hopefully progress as trubisky picks up the offense more) while the defense is probably in the territory (not necessarily #1) it should be.

They move the ball well on offense and eat up a ton of clock. They simply can't execute in the red zone. Is success in the redzone similar to BABIP in that it will eventually regress to the mean over time?

there's only 16 games in a season and a handful, at most, of trips into the red zone each game. There is no time for regression.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:36 pm

As long as they are independent events the only thing that matters going forward is the underlying probability instead of past performance, though.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:42 pm

Tim wrote:As long as they are independent events the only thing that matters going forward is the underlying probability instead of past performance, though.

mitch is the constant
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:53 pm

Red zone scoring is very much a skill.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:35 pm

Wims is active today. Will be interesting to see his snap count vs White’s
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:36 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Red zone scoring is very much a skill.


Big time. So many QBs can get lead their teams between the 20s but when the field gets shorter the best QBs can find tight windows and go throw progressions to get into the end zone
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:40 pm

Today we find out if the defense is super-duper-elite or just sort of pedestrian elite.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:57 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Today we find out if the defense is super-duper-elite or just sort of pedestrian elite.

Who's getting the start for Amukamara?
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:05 pm

Dude can’t horsefeathering throw

Edit: ok sometimes he can
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:09 pm

That drive looked...good?
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:11 pm

He *didn't* miss the wide open receiver 40 yards downfield. It's a good start.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:15 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:He *didn't* miss the wide open receiver 40 yards downfield. It's a good start.


He found him at least. He has been missing wide open receivers
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:16 pm

This looks like it could easily be the game where the narrative, from both the fan base and the national media, begins to transition from "interesting young team, might be good some day" to "this is a championship defense accompanied by a lot of offensive weapons."
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:27 pm

That Akiem Hicks sack was a textbook example for everyone who does the dumb "How can you possibly sack a QB without driving your weight into him" takes.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:29 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:That Akiem Hicks sack was a textbook example for everyone who does the dumb "How can you possibly sack a QB without driving your weight into him" takes.

Well, he didn't have a chance to drive his body into him, the sack was as much on the other guy pushing the lineman into Fitzpatrick and him being a stiff.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:35 pm

Wow

Some nice throws on that drive. To the left side, even.
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:35 pm

OK that was a good drive.

*jumps back on Mitchy T bandwagon*
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:40 pm

Have all the big plays against this defense come on crossing routes?
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Re: Week 4: Tampa @ Bears SUNDAY AT NOON on Fox

Postby Tim » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:41 pm

Toliver has looked okay so far against some good receivers.
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