Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:48 pm

3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby cl smooth » Thu Nov 01, 2018 3:00 pm

UMFan83 wrote:3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.


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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby David » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:04 pm

Seems safe to say he'll, thankfully, be out this week, if there was any doubt

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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:27 pm

David wrote:Seems safe to say he'll, thankfully, be out this week, if there was any doubt



"instead we dropped him into coverage half the time"
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:04 pm

David wrote:i forgot about the aikman ratings since i haven't looked for them since the last time the bears were anything resembling good, but...


If I understand the ratings right, they are only offensive and defensive ratings, and don't include special teams. And special teams have probably cost Bears two of their games.

Interestingly, Dvoa, which does have ST ratings has bears 5th overall (30th ranked ST). Along with 1st in D and 11th in O. Aikman has Bears 1st in D and 10th in O. Overall, Aikman and DVOA seem much closer to being aligned on O than D (at least using week 8 of 2018 as a comparison).
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:28 pm

David wrote:Seems safe to say he'll, thankfully, be out this week, if there was any doubt


There must be some shared medical staff system with the Cubs and Bears
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby r_mack » Thu Nov 01, 2018 11:41 pm

UMFan83 wrote:3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

Both #2 overall picks that put up good stats early in their career, neither of which meets the eye test. I actually think this is a good comparison.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby jumbo » Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:11 am

r_mack wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

Both #2 overall picks that put up good stats early in their career, neither of which meets the eye test. I actually think this is a good comparison.

Bortles was 3, I think
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby UK » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:09 am

jumbo wrote:
r_mack wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:3 times this week I've come across a national writer referring to Mitch as the Blake Bortles of the North, which I get on some level but I really think its premature to turn him into a national joke like Bortles is at times.

Both #2 overall picks that put up good stats early in their career, neither of which meets the eye test. I actually think this is a good comparison.

Bortles was 3, I think


You're correct, although he's more similar to a 2nd overall pick from almost 20 years ago. Although most player comparisons are based on race 1st, Trubisky's profile is more similar to McNabb (strong armed, inconsistent mechanics/accuracy, running is something defenses have to scheme against). I know this goes against r_mack's premise or narrative of picking someone who's viewed negatively rather than looking at Trubisky objectively (but it's a much better player comparison).
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Derwood » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:21 am

Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:52 pm

Derwood wrote:Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?


Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 3:56 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Derwood wrote:Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?


Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.


I think they keep stats somewhere of number of dangerous passes. I'd like to see how that compares because it seems like Mitch has been lucky with throwing interceptable balls that werent caught. It's possible that his INT rate could regress in a hurry.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Nov 02, 2018 4:38 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Derwood wrote:Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?


Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.


I think they keep stats somewhere of number of dangerous passes. I'd like to see how that compares because it seems like Mitch has been lucky with throwing interceptable balls that werent caught. It's possible that his INT rate could regress in a hurry.

I read an article that the best future predictor of INT rate is simply completion percentage. So Mitch looks decent there at 64% despite two below average games in that metric.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:03 pm

In all fairness, when Mitch misses he misses EVERYONE
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Bertz » Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:53 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Derwood wrote:Does Trubisky turn the ball over at the alarming rate Bortles does?


Yeah. Bortles had 1.3 TD:INT ratio and a 3.2% INT rate his first two years.

Trubisky right now is at 1.7:1 and 2.3%

That's a pretty big difference. Not throwing picks is something Trubisky is pretty decent at for a young QB.


I think they keep stats somewhere of number of dangerous passes. I'd like to see how that compares because it seems like Mitch has been lucky with throwing interceptable balls that werent caught. It's possible that his INT rate could regress in a hurry.


That's tracked, but I don't know of a (free) place that updates it week by week. Most guys have a handful per year; according to FO the average is 1 per every 120 attempts. Mitch has 3 I can think of right now (1 vs SEA, 2 vs NE) in 240 attempts. I'm sure I'm forgetting one or two, but unless I'm forgetting several he's been a little fortunate but not so much that it should materially change what we think of him.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:21 pm

Everyone has interceptions that "should" have been. A lot of them get dropped. That's why they are DBs and not WRs.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby David » Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:23 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Everyone has interceptions that "should" have been. A lot of them get dropped. That's why they are DBs and not WRs.


sure, but charting bad decisions/throws (or "should have been" interceptions) would be more predictive than just counting interceptions and reduces variance/luck in the data. in the long run it should even out, but in 8 games, one guy could pretty easily luck his way into significantly fewer (or more) picks than he should have.

but you know this.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:27 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Everyone has interceptions that "should" have been. A lot of them get dropped. That's why they are DBs and not WRs.


sure, but charting bad decisions/throws (or "should have been" interceptions) would be more predictive than just counting interceptions and reduces variance/luck in the data. in the long run it should even out, but in 8 games, one guy could pretty easily luck his way into significantly fewer (or more) picks than he should have.

but you know this.


Sure. But absent that data, actual interception totals are a better proxy than actual INTs plus remembering some bad throws.

But you know this.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Nov 02, 2018 9:54 pm

You're both dorks, but we know this.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby David » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:03 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:You're both dorks, but we know this.

We're all enormous dorks, or else we wouldn't be here
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:29 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:You're both dorks, but we know this.


Finally, some good Bears content.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:07 pm

Another rough grade for Mitch:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... m=referral

#26 Mitchell Trubisky

He's the most divisive quarterback in football, at least according to the stats. ESPN's QBR has him ranked seventh overall and his fantasy stats are undeniably large. DVOA has him 20th, while the graders at Pro Football Focus have him ranked as the worst pure passer in football by a wide margin. My rank is closer to PFF's because of all the interceptions he's lucked out of thanks to drops by defenders, and all the open receivers that he's missed.

2018 stats: 7 games | 64.6 pct | 1,814 pass yds | 7.6 ypa | 15 pass TD | 6 INT | 296 rush yds | 2 rush TD
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby NOLA » Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:20 pm

Just thought I’d mention that I flew into Buffalo today for a work trip, tons of Chicago fans here, and they keep playing Sublime on the jukebox.
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby NOLA » Sat Nov 03, 2018 11:57 pm

Dp
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Re: Week 9: Bears at Bills Sunday noon? On fox

Postby NOLA » Sun Nov 04, 2018 2:04 am

SSS and all, but these Bears fan douchebags are the worst fans I’ve been around. I mean, FFS, these guys suck.
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