2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby Derwood » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:58 pm

bukie wrote:
Derwood wrote:Can someone who knows more than me (i.e. anyone) explain why Ohio State is even sniffing this tournament? 19-14 overall, 8-12 in conference, 1-8 vs. AP top 25, 1-9 vs. USA Today top 25. They are 3-7 in their last 10. They've been the definition of "meh" all year

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).


How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds?
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:00 pm

Derwood wrote:
bukie wrote:
Derwood wrote:Can someone who knows more than me (i.e. anyone) explain why Ohio State is even sniffing this tournament? 19-14 overall, 8-12 in conference, 1-8 vs. AP top 25, 1-9 vs. USA Today top 25. They are 3-7 in their last 10. They've been the definition of "meh" all year

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).


How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds?

Oklahoma 4-10
TCU 3-9
NC State 3-9
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby Derwood » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:07 pm

bukie wrote:
Derwood wrote:
bukie wrote:Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).


How does 4-10 in Q1 games compare to your other 10 seeds?

Oklahoma 4-10
TCU 3-9
NC State 3-9


Thank you.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:27 pm

Cincinnati wins the American. I'll swap them and Louisville. Updated bracket, with only one game still going on:

Code: Select all

Opening round - Dayton
 - March 19
 65. Abilene Christian (Southland)
 66. Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC)

 42. Belmont
 43. Lipscomb

 - March 20
 67. North Dakota State (Summit)
 68. UNC Central (MEAC)

 44. Temple
 45. Indiana
 
East Regional - Washington DC
 - Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24)
 1 (1). Duke (ACC)
 16 (67/68). North Dakota State (Summit)/UNC Central (MEAC) (Dayton 2)

 8 (32). Florida
 9 (33). Minnesota
 
 - San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24)
 4 (16). Wisconsin
 13 (51). UC Irvine (Big West)

 5 (18). Buffalo (MAC)
 12 (49). Oregon (Pac 12)

 - Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23)
 2 (8). Kentucky
 15 (59). Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

 7 (25). Kansas State
 10 (38). NC State

 - Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24)
 3 (9). Houston
 14 (57). Vermont (America East)

 6 (24). Wofford (SoCon)
 11 (41). Syracuse

West Regional - Anaheim, CA
 - Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23)
 1 (2). Gonzaga
 16 (65/66) Abilene Christian (Southland)/Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) (Dayton 1)

 8 (29). Iowa
 9 (34). Baylor

 - San Jose, CA (Mar 22/24)
 4 (15). Florida State
 13 (53). St. Louis (A-10)

 5 (19). Villanova
 12 (48). New Mexico State (WAC)
 
 - Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23)
 2 (7). Tennessee
 15 (60). Colgate (Patriot)

 7 (26). Maryland
 10 (40). TCU

 - Des Moines, IA (Mar 21/23)
 3 (11). Kansas
 14 (55). Northeastern (CAA)

 6 (23). Cincinnati (AAC)
 11 (42/43). Belmont/Lipscomb (Dayton 1)
 
South Regional - Louisville, KY
 - Columbia, SC (Mar 22/24)
 1 (3). Virginia
 16 (64). Prairie View (SWAC)

 8 (31). UCF
 9 (35). Washington

 - Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23)
 4 (13). Purdue
 13 (52). Old Dominion (CUSA)

 5 (20). Marquette
 12 (50). Liberty (ASun)

 - Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24)
 2 (6). Michigan
 15 (61). Bradley (MVC)

 7 (27). Louisville
 10 (39). Oklahoma

 - Tulsa, OK (Mar 22/24)
 3 (10). LSU
 14 (56). Sun Belt champ (Georgia State)
 
 6 (21). Iowa State (Big 12)
 11(44/45). Temple/Indiana (Dayton 2)

Midwest Regional - Kansas City, MO
 - Columbus, OH (Mar 22/24)
 1 (4). Michigan State (B1G)
 16 (63). Iona (MAAC)

 8 (30). VCU
 9 (36). Seton Hall

 - Hartford, CT (Mar 21/23)
 4 (14). Auburn (SEC)
 13 (54). Yale (Ivy)
 
 5 (17). Virginia Tech
 12 (47). Murray State (OVC)
 
 - Jacksonville, FL (Mar 21/23)
 2 (5). North Carolina
 15 (62). Gardner-Webb (Big South)

 7 (28), Nevada
 10 (37). Ohio State

 - Salt Lake City, UT (Mar 21/23)
 3 (12). Texas Tech
 14 (58). Montana (Big Sky)

 6 (22). Mississippi State
 11 (46). St. Mary's (WCC)
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:33 pm

Michigan-MSU tied with a minute to play, because of course it is. I'm not sure how to handle it if Michigan wins, but I'd probably just swap them.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:42 pm

MSU, 3 wins vs Michigan, 0 wins vs Indiana or Illinois.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:52 pm

Some quick thoughts before the selection:

- I think the top 8 seeds (1 and 2 seeds) are as strong as they've ever been this year, and there's a sizable gap between those 8 teams (Duke/UNC/Virginia/Gonzaga/Tennessee/Kentucky/MSU/Michigan) and everyone else.
- I think the bottom of the at large pool is really bad this year, and I almost feel like the high NET teams like UNC Greensboro and Furman should get bids before Indiana and Temple, but I don't think it'll happen.
- Texas is still on brackets as a .500 team, but a .500 team has never made a bracket.
- I'm curious how heavily the committee will weigh the NET rating. Related, I'm going to be unreasonably annoyed if St. John's is in the bracket with a NET of 74, and Furman isn't in the bracket with a NET of 37.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:00 pm

I screwed up and inadvertently omitted Ole Miss from the curve, but it is what it is at this point. They should be on the 10 seed line, and every team behind them pushed down 1.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:07 pm

MSU gets a 2 in the East...interesting.

Belmont makes the tourney!
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:13 pm

bukie wrote:
Derwood wrote:Can someone who knows more than me (i.e. anyone) explain why Ohio State is even sniffing this tournament? 19-14 overall, 8-12 in conference, 1-8 vs. AP top 25, 1-9 vs. USA Today top 25. They are 3-7 in their last 10. They've been the definition of "meh" all year

Polls are meaningless, they are 4-10 in Q1, they won at Cincinnati and Creighton (another bubble team), the last 10 doesn't mean anything, and the B1G is good enough that everyone had 12+ Q1 games. Only one bad loss (Illinois).


They also get some consideration that their late season slide came with their best player suspended
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:19 pm

Ole miss an 8 seed, Iowa a 10.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:22 pm

Just half the bracket revealed so far, already MSu, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota and Iowa in a bracket.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:25 pm

Ohio State an 11.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:28 pm

Things only I care about...Abilene Christian is hugely overseeded.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:35 pm

Bleh, BOTH Arizona State and St. John's are in.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:37 pm

TCU and NC State did not make it.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:48 pm

In total I ended up missing 3 teams since I neglected to seed Utah State despite them winning the MWC. That's what I get for rushing things after midnight on a Saturday.

Other than that, only big miss was Kansas State's seed, which I personally think is way high. Everything else was at least within 2 spots.

Overall, not a good bracket year for me, though, even getting Belmont right.

I'm still super annoyed that St. John's is in this bracket. It's insane. I guess that 5-7 record against Q1 meant everything.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:50 pm

Also, Arizona State makes the bracket likely solely because of their non conference wins vs Kansas and Mississippi State. Two Q4 losses and an overall weak profile otherwise.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby Derwood » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:58 pm

Always weird to see an NCAA bracket without UConn, Arizona, UCLA or Indiana.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby bukie » Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:32 am

In terms of the actual quality of teams, this may have been the worst bracket ever.

Going by KP rankings, the committee took both #76 Temple and #78 St. John's, and left out #30 Texas and #33 NC State. And it's not like they looked at NET rankings that closely either, since both those and Arizona State were significantly higher than some unselected teams.

Also, the committee underseeded MSU, overseeded most of the 4s and underseeded most of the 5s, such that the gap between 4-13 and 5-12 are about the same, and none of the matchups are that close statistically.

The only statistically close first round matchup that could be considered an upset would be St. Mary's and Villanova, as those teams are actually close statistically. Cincy-Iowa and Nevada-Florida are basically dead heats as well.

However, the gap between the top 8 and everyone else is still pretty stark, and the committee made the top 8 all the 1 and 2 seeds, so they could end up looking good purely by accident.
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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament Selection

Postby NewUserName » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:57 pm

To me, It looks like the committee was more concerned about who teams lost to than who they beat. I really didnt mind that MSU got a 2 seed, it"s being in the toughest bracket that bothers me....while Michigan is probably in the easiest bracket
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