Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:55 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Bad. But not bad enough for a Trevor Lawrence tank.



give it a chance, they only play the Lions once more. 2-14 is totally possible

But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:57 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Bad. But not bad enough for a Trevor Lawrence tank.



give it a chance, they only play the Lions once more. 2-14 is totally possible

But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15.



true, but do you really think they'd be smart enough to pick Lawrence?
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:58 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:I have a lot of belief in Nagy and think Pace can help build a winner with him. I hate the constant turnover and think these guys have a baseline of competence that is worth something. But I can be talked out of it

I'd probably rather role the dice on them than let McCaskey potentially hire another Emery.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:59 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:

give it a chance, they only play the Lions once more. 2-14 is totally possible

But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15.



true, but do you really think they'd be smart enough to pick Lawrence?

100%

But maybe the Bears can just sign Stafford then and lock into some nice 7-9 and 9-7 seasons for a while.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby cwood218 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:09 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Bad. But not bad enough for a Trevor Lawrence tank.



give it a chance, they only play the Lions once more. 2-14 is totally possible

But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15.


They could always trade a few picks to move from #2 up to #1.
After all ... when you have conviction on a guy you do what you have to do to get him.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:56 pm

cwood218 wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:

give it a chance, they only play the Lions once more. 2-14 is totally possible

But then those pesky Lions will be sitting there at like 1-15.


They could always trade a few picks to move from #2 up to #1.
After all ... when you have conviction on a guy you do what you have to do to get him.

#ouch
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby rawaction » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:20 pm

Some thoughts:

- Robinson, Miller, Mooney looks like a really good WR group going forward. Better re-sign Robinson, and Miller only has 1 more year under contract but this could be a strong 3 for a young QB in the future.

- OL looked better today than at any point last year. From what I saw, Ifedi looks like an upgrade over Coward and the corpse of Kyle Long from last year. Daniels and Leno were better. Massie still the weak link.

- I thought Graham really blew a couple decent throws by mistiming his jumps. The Bears likely score 2 first half TDs if he catches those.

- Danny Trevathan looks old and slow.

- Khalil Mack looks injured. Dealing with a knee issue this week, couldn't afford to not have him and Quinn. Gotta get both healthy, had nothing else off the edge. I'd probably touch base with the free agents. Cameron Wake, Ziggy Ansah, Jabaal Sheard and Clay Matthews could help this team (if any of them want to play)

- I would call Snacks Harrison tonight. Missed that run plugger in the middle at times, especially against Peterson. DL also got little pressure all day.

- Jaylon Johnson looks like the real deal. Marvin jones got one against him running in the open field, but his coverage was on point all day. Fuller is also pretty good.

- I liked the playcalling for the most part. 3rd and short is still a mystery. But Nagy called a good game, i thought. I liked the way the personnel was used overall. RB touches were nicely distributed, WR targets/reps were nice. Used all the TEs.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:25 pm

rawaction wrote:- Danny Trevathan looks old and slow.

Yep, he really stood out in a bad way.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:31 pm

when your garbage time stat padding accidentally leads to a win
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby Sosa21MVP » Mon Sep 14, 2020 12:09 am

17 Seconds wrote:when your garbage time stat padding accidentally leads to a win


:lol:

Yeah I kept telling myself they still had a chance only because it was the Lions and the Lions do Lions things. And it happened yet again.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby Omar » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:20 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Is below average until the game plan is thrown out the window and then suddenly comes alive.


its time to start the game with the game plan thrown out the window.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:09 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:This is definitely one that gets thrown around but I have zero idea to its accuracy.



all the great ones that come to mind (and i get that this is sort of self-fulfilling as that's why their greatness comes to mind) did. peppers, strahan, white, LT to some extent, bruce smith


Yea I think the self fulfilling prophecy is definitely going to be true here.

Here's a list of all guys with 50+ Sacks through their first 6 seasons. 60 names, Mack is 21st on the list with 61.5. Perhaps ill do something later with this list and see how well they age (and maybe I can also compare to 60 great NFL QBs through 6 seasons and see how well they actually age).

Link

Bump from this. I analyzed this list a bit, and it really isn't as great as you'd like to see. Obviously its solely focused on sacks and Mack is definitely a great all around DE, but...

The top 10 does fairly well over all, with guys like Reggie White, Demarcus Ware, Bruce Smith, Richard Dent, and Jared Allen. These guys all met the 50 sack threshold over their next 6 seasons, but still with a sack/game decline of about 20% (but with sack numbers that still are on par or better than Mack's first 6). However, Mack is 21st on that first list and from 11-20 you have names like Pat Swilling, Adre Tippett, Dexter Manley, Charles Haley, Elvis Dummervil, and Kevin Carter. Only Simeon Rice actually met the threshold for 50 sacks in his next 6 seasons of guys in that 11-20 range. And he's actually the only guy on the whole list to significantly improve. (one more guy, Lawrence Taylor technically was 20th on my list, but sacks weren't a stat until his second year, so he's obviously actually top 10 guy on the list, and he stayed steady over his next 6 seasons, with little to no decline in overall sack/game numbers). From 22-60 it definitely looks less like an elite list than a "pretty good list"

Overall, taking out the current players who haven't accrued years 7-12 yet, there's 49 guys left from the list. Only 18 met the 50 sack threshold over the next 6 years and an additional 2 met the 50 sack threshold the whole rest of their career. So 29 of 49 top pass rushers didn't meet 50 sacks the whole rest of their career. Along with Simeon Rice, the 3 guys who saw minimally stronger sack/game numbers over their 7-12 seasons are Jason Taylor, Julius Peppers, and Chris Doleman. So you're basically hoping Mack is like a Julius Peppers or Jason Taylor career curve, or that his overall skill set makes up some for a drop off in pass rush numbers. I'm going to say "Myth Busted" on the "Elite Pass Rushers age well".

ETA- On big name who barely missed the cutoff was Michael Strahan, who only had 47 sacks through his first 6 seasons, and still had age 29-32, 34, and 36 seasons of 9.5, 22.5, 11, 18.5, 11.5, and 9 sacks. But he's obviously a unicorn. There's 10 other guys who got 50+ sacks in years 7-12 after not doing so in years 1-6, but its definitely more of a "pretty good" list than elite list.

Edit 2- I was actually initially using a sack/game started metric. Which maybe was a questionable metric to use, but you had a few guys who spent at least one, or many, seasons as pass rush specialist who didn't "start" (John Randle, Robert Mathis, Terrell Suggs). These guys all go into the "aging well" metric for pash rushers in that they all improved their sack/game numbers (along with Peppers, Taylor, and Rice). But if Mack is a better comparison through 6 seasons to guys like that rather than a LT, White, Dent, the list still is definitely not as strong, as the Peppers and Suggs types become exceptions and not rules.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:46 pm

That the guys with the best results in the league do not often replicate their historic success afterwards should not be a surprise. You would do a little better to just look at average production over careers league-wide...which would have its own selection bias because only largely successful players have long careers...which is probably where the "elite pass rushers age well" myth came from in the first place.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:01 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That the guys with the best results in the league do not often replicate their historic success afterwards should not be a surprise. You would do a little better to just look at average production over careers league-wide...which would have its own selection bias because only largely successful players have long careers...which is probably where the "elite pass rushers age well" myth came from in the first place.

I definitely tried to do something like that at a very basic level. Looked at seasons 1-6 and 7-12 as two queries and crossed the references against each other to. Include guys who only made one list. Obviously wanted to keep out the 1 year wonders so 5-ish cumulative seasons is probably a decent target to even get into an elite list, but I went with 6 just because that was where Mack was starting at.

Also, as mentioned guys like White and Dent who were very strong through 6, I noted that even if they dropped off, they still had strong numbers. So they didn't age well from a comparative point, but did still in an absolute sense.

Definitely there could be more sophisticated ways to do it (for one, trying to do a rolling 6 season as you might find a guy who was elite in years 3-8 and made neither of my lists). Also perhaps need my second leg to meet a slightly more generous threshold. For example if a guy went 12, 12, 10, 9, 4, 0 his last 6 seasons, he still aged fairly well (and such a result I think most Bears fans would be happy with from Mack considering the contact), but he'd miss my second list threshold. So, doing this again "properly" and not quick and dirty, I'd probably try something like "best 4 seasons" against rolling average 3 seasons over their remainder of their career, or something like that. Which would probably make me feel better about Mack, but kind of prove the "elite" part is self fulfilling and that Mack just doesn't belong with the likes of truly elite pass rushers (but still very good in other harder to measure areas... But also isn't being paid for his run D).

But I do agree with your last point, which is what I suspected when I started this list in my reply to David. It's self-fulfilling and a selection bias issue that created that particular myth.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby sneakypower » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:17 pm

lol the radio crew made the Swift drop seem really bad but finally seeing it it's even worse than i imagined
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:37 pm

sneakypower wrote:lol the radio crew made the Swift drop seem really bad but finally seeing it it's even worse than i imagined

Its one of the easiest drops we'll see all season in the whole NFL, IMO.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:58 pm

sneakypower wrote:lol the radio crew made the Swift drop seem really bad but finally seeing it it's even worse than i imagined


I think I was already writing up my 'of course they blew it' tweet until I turned back to the TV and realized he dropped it. I read an article today that said Swift is supposed to have great hands and receiving ability. Only 3 drops total in college.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby gflore34 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:34 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That the guys with the best results in the league do not often replicate their historic success afterwards should not be a surprise. You would do a little better to just look at average production over careers league-wide...which would have its own selection bias because only largely successful players have long careers...which is probably where the "elite pass rushers age well" myth came from in the first place.

I definitely tried to do something like that at a very basic level. Looked at seasons 1-6 and 7-12 as two queries and crossed the references against each other to. Include guys who only made one list. Obviously wanted to keep out the 1 year wonders so 5-ish cumulative seasons is probably a decent target to even get into an elite list, but I went with 6 just because that was where Mack was starting at.

Also, as mentioned guys like White and Dent who were very strong through 6, I noted that even if they dropped off, they still had strong numbers. So they didn't age well from a comparative point, but did still in an absolute sense.

Definitely there could be more sophisticated ways to do it (for one, trying to do a rolling 6 season as you might find a guy who was elite in years 3-8 and made neither of my lists). Also perhaps need my second leg to meet a slightly more generous threshold. For example if a guy went 12, 12, 10, 9, 4, 0 his last 6 seasons, he still aged fairly well (and such a result I think most Bears fans would be happy with from Mack considering the contact), but he'd miss my second list threshold. So, doing this again "properly" and not quick and dirty, I'd probably try something like "best 4 seasons" against rolling average 3 seasons over their remainder of their career, or something like that. Which would probably make me feel better about Mack, but kind of prove the "elite" part is self fulfilling and that Mack just doesn't belong with the likes of truly elite pass rushers (but still very good in other harder to measure areas... But also isn't being paid for his run D).

But I do agree with your last point, which is what I suspected when I started this list in my reply to David. It's self-fulfilling and a selection bias issue that created that particular myth.


The drop for Mack has been precipitous, he went from someone who could change the outcome of a game to nearly invisible. He had no effect in yesterday' game, they'd won with or without him, and he'll probably make no difference in this Bears' season. I guess its a combination of the items mentioned above, injury and a difference in what constitutes holding. During the game, on both sides, most especially on Mack, I've seen the OL' arm under chin 'block', Mack' essentially by the blocker however, the blocker is using Mack' chin and neck to hold him back. I do not know how the hell that isn't a hold. That "great" Mack stopping former Packer OL, Bryan Bulaga, was expert at that, along with his other holds of Mack.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:11 pm

gflore34 wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That the guys with the best results in the league do not often replicate their historic success afterwards should not be a surprise. You would do a little better to just look at average production over careers league-wide...which would have its own selection bias because only largely successful players have long careers...which is probably where the "elite pass rushers age well" myth came from in the first place.

I definitely tried to do something like that at a very basic level. Looked at seasons 1-6 and 7-12 as two queries and crossed the references against each other to. Include guys who only made one list. Obviously wanted to keep out the 1 year wonders so 5-ish cumulative seasons is probably a decent target to even get into an elite list, but I went with 6 just because that was where Mack was starting at.

Also, as mentioned guys like White and Dent who were very strong through 6, I noted that even if they dropped off, they still had strong numbers. So they didn't age well from a comparative point, but did still in an absolute sense.

Definitely there could be more sophisticated ways to do it (for one, trying to do a rolling 6 season as you might find a guy who was elite in years 3-8 and made neither of my lists). Also perhaps need my second leg to meet a slightly more generous threshold. For example if a guy went 12, 12, 10, 9, 4, 0 his last 6 seasons, he still aged fairly well (and such a result I think most Bears fans would be happy with from Mack considering the contact), but he'd miss my second list threshold. So, doing this again "properly" and not quick and dirty, I'd probably try something like "best 4 seasons" against rolling average 3 seasons over their remainder of their career, or something like that. Which would probably make me feel better about Mack, but kind of prove the "elite" part is self fulfilling and that Mack just doesn't belong with the likes of truly elite pass rushers (but still very good in other harder to measure areas... But also isn't being paid for his run D).

But I do agree with your last point, which is what I suspected when I started this list in my reply to David. It's self-fulfilling and a selection bias issue that created that particular myth.


The drop for Mack has been precipitous, he went from someone who could change the outcome of a game to nearly invisible. He had no effect in yesterday' game, they'd won with or without him, and he'll probably make no difference in this Bears' season. I guess its a combination of the items mentioned above, injury and a difference in what constitutes holding. During the game, on both sides, most especially on Mack, I've seen the OL' arm under chin 'block', Mack' essentially by the blocker however, the blocker is using Mack' chin and neck to hold him back. I do not know how the hell that isn't a hold.

Here's the optimistic view on Mack;

There still can be a lot of game to game noise for pass rushers. And he can maybe be like age 30-35 Julis Peppers, but it's almost a certainty the Defensive MVP we traded for ain't gonna be there consistently going forward. And many other parts of the D unit are probably on their downside already too.

At least most of their picks are intact again going forward.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:22 pm

gflore34 wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That the guys with the best results in the league do not often replicate their historic success afterwards should not be a surprise. You would do a little better to just look at average production over careers league-wide...which would have its own selection bias because only largely successful players have long careers...which is probably where the "elite pass rushers age well" myth came from in the first place.

I definitely tried to do something like that at a very basic level. Looked at seasons 1-6 and 7-12 as two queries and crossed the references against each other to. Include guys who only made one list. Obviously wanted to keep out the 1 year wonders so 5-ish cumulative seasons is probably a decent target to even get into an elite list, but I went with 6 just because that was where Mack was starting at.

Also, as mentioned guys like White and Dent who were very strong through 6, I noted that even if they dropped off, they still had strong numbers. So they didn't age well from a comparative point, but did still in an absolute sense.

Definitely there could be more sophisticated ways to do it (for one, trying to do a rolling 6 season as you might find a guy who was elite in years 3-8 and made neither of my lists). Also perhaps need my second leg to meet a slightly more generous threshold. For example if a guy went 12, 12, 10, 9, 4, 0 his last 6 seasons, he still aged fairly well (and such a result I think most Bears fans would be happy with from Mack considering the contact), but he'd miss my second list threshold. So, doing this again "properly" and not quick and dirty, I'd probably try something like "best 4 seasons" against rolling average 3 seasons over their remainder of their career, or something like that. Which would probably make me feel better about Mack, but kind of prove the "elite" part is self fulfilling and that Mack just doesn't belong with the likes of truly elite pass rushers (but still very good in other harder to measure areas... But also isn't being paid for his run D).

But I do agree with your last point, which is what I suspected when I started this list in my reply to David. It's self-fulfilling and a selection bias issue that created that particular myth.


The drop for Mack has been precipitous, he went from someone who could change the outcome of a game to nearly invisible. He had no effect in yesterday' game, they'd won with or without him, and he'll probably make no difference in this Bears' season. I guess its a combination of the items mentioned above, injury and a difference in what constitutes holding. During the game, on both sides, most especially on Mack, I've seen the OL' arm under chin 'block', Mack' essentially by the blocker however, the blocker is using Mack' chin and neck to hold him back. I do not know how the hell that isn't a hold. That "great" Mack stopping former Packer OL, Bryan Bulaga, was expert at that, along with his other holds of Mack.


I actually noticed Mack quite a bit yesterday. Yes he wasn't getting to the QB at a high rate or noticeably taking over the game but he was beating his man fairly consistently. Plus he's still getting double teamed frequently, so even if he doesnt knock the QB down hes having an affect on the game. Like the post above me talks about, he's probably not going to be at the level he was in Oakland but he is still a pro bowl player IMO.

I will say though, I've never seen a pass rusher affect the game like he did in his first game as a Bear in GB. I thought we were getting that Mack consistently even though there is no earthly way someone can be that productive more often than not. Even Aaron Donald doesn't hit those heights too often. I think that performance/first impression to Bears fans has a detrimental affect on the perception of his performance since then.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:44 pm

gflore34 wrote:
The drop for Mack has been precipitous, he went from someone who could change the outcome of a game to nearly invisible. He had no effect in yesterday' game, they'd won with or without him, and he'll probably make no difference in this Bears' season. I guess its a combination of the items mentioned above, injury and a difference in what constitutes holding. During the game, on both sides, most especially on Mack, I've seen the OL' arm under chin 'block', Mack' essentially by the blocker however, the blocker is using Mack' chin and neck to hold him back. I do not know how the hell that isn't a hold. That "great" Mack stopping former Packer OL, Bryan Bulaga, was expert at that, along with his other holds of Mack.


I disagree with this, at least in the first half yesterday it seemed like Mack was in the backfield on every play. I'm still not sure how he didn't get a sack, other then the fact, as you point out, he was likely being held on every play as well.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby gflore34 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:01 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
gflore34 wrote:
The drop for Mack has been precipitous, he went from someone who could change the outcome of a game to nearly invisible. He had no effect in yesterday' game, they'd won with or without him, and he'll probably make no difference in this Bears' season. I guess its a combination of the items mentioned above, injury and a difference in what constitutes holding. During the game, on both sides, most especially on Mack, I've seen the OL' arm under chin 'block', Mack' essentially by the blocker however, the blocker is using Mack' chin and neck to hold him back. I do not know how the hell that isn't a hold. That "great" Mack stopping former Packer OL, Bryan Bulaga, was expert at that, along with his other holds of Mack.


I disagree with this, at least in the first half yesterday it seemed like Mack was in the backfield on every play. I'm still not sure how he didn't get a sack, other then the fact, as you point out, he was likely being held on every play as well.


Probably an overreaction on my part, I was hoping to see the Mack we saw on that Thursday night in GB, there's a good chance we won't see that version again.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby Brian707 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:15 pm

gflore34 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
gflore34 wrote:
The drop for Mack has been precipitous, he went from someone who could change the outcome of a game to nearly invisible. He had no effect in yesterday' game, they'd won with or without him, and he'll probably make no difference in this Bears' season. I guess its a combination of the items mentioned above, injury and a difference in what constitutes holding. During the game, on both sides, most especially on Mack, I've seen the OL' arm under chin 'block', Mack' essentially by the blocker however, the blocker is using Mack' chin and neck to hold him back. I do not know how the hell that isn't a hold. That "great" Mack stopping former Packer OL, Bryan Bulaga, was expert at that, along with his other holds of Mack.


I disagree with this, at least in the first half yesterday it seemed like Mack was in the backfield on every play. I'm still not sure how he didn't get a sack, other then the fact, as you point out, he was likely being held on every play as well.


Probably an overreaction on my part, I was hoping to see the Mack we saw on that Thursday night in GB, there's a good chance we won't see that version again.


That was a defensive performance for the ages. You probably won't see that ever again
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby David » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:18 pm

also it was a sunday night


also the line/pass rush overall will look better with quinn back. i'm hopeful he's not far off given that they didn't IR him.
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Re: Week 1: Chicago BEARS @ Detroit Lions

Postby gflore34 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:23 pm

David wrote:also it was a sunday night


also the line/pass rush overall will look better with quinn back. i'm hopeful he's not far off given that they didn't IR him.


That's right, it was a Sunday night, don't know why I thought it was a Thursday night.
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