Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:18 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I still don’t think they are good


but they might be 2020 good
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby bukie » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:15 am

Derwood wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I still don’t think they are good


They aren't. The teams they've played so far were a combined 12-18 coming into today. Rams, Saints, Titans, Packers are four of their next five games. That should show us who they are one way or the other

The teams the Bears have played thus far are a combined 15-20. a combined 43% winning percentage
The teams the Packers have played thus far are a combined 11-17. a combined 39% winning percentage

And that gap was closed today as the Bears beat the 3-3 Panthers and the Packers lost to the 4-2 Bucs.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Soul » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:18 am

bjam12 wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Bears now 5-0 in the NFC and have H2H wins over the Bucs and Panthers, 2 teams they may be competing with for a wild card spot. Really good position at this point.


Going to need it with our schedule coming up.

I’m going to regret this but:

Rams have only beaten bad teams.
Saints have 2 losses.
Titans have 1 quality win.
Vikings are horrid.
Packers just got undressed by a team we beat.

It’s a friggin tough stretch but I see some chinks in the armor of these teams, just like the Bears have flaws.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:28 am

Okay, maybe everyone just sucks so the Bears still suck then.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:45 am

WrigleyField 22 wrote:Okay, maybe everyone just sucks so the Bears still suck then.


The Bears have a +12 point differential, 6th best in the NFC and 12th best in football. I doubt their below average DVOA will improve much based on today’s result. So they are still playing like a slightly above average team. But there is room to improve IMO. Although the Bears have an average at best QB, RB and line, I still think there is a better offense there than we’ve seen thus far. Just don’t know if they will be able to unlock that higher gear.

Sorry the above post seems pretty negative. I am legit excited about the start and in a year with no great teams - at least in the NFC - why not have hope that the Bears can win the conference?
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:57 am

If you're going to have a mediocrity hell season, at least we're having the good kind where we might even win a playoff game or two.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby bukie » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:00 am

Fun fact, the Rams don't have a win this season outside the NFC East.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby rawaction » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:07 am

Soul wrote:
bjam12 wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Bears now 5-0 in the NFC and have H2H wins over the Bucs and Panthers, 2 teams they may be competing with for a wild card spot. Really good position at this point.


Going to need it with our schedule coming up.

I’m going to regret this but:

Rams have only beaten bad teams.
Saints have 2 losses.
Titans have 1 quality win.
Vikings are horrid.
Packers just got undressed by a team we beat.

It’s a friggin tough stretch but I see some chinks in the armor of these teams, just like the Bears have flaws.


Like I said last page, everyone is beating bad teams. Bears are the only team that have beaten multiple .500 teams. This is as much disparity between good and bad teams that I've ever seen in the NFL. About half the league is downright terrible.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Soul » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:41 am

It’s good to be the team that is on the winning side of the disparity, at least so far.

Damned if I know what will happen for the rest of the season but it’s OK to see positives when your team is 5-1. That much I know.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby bukie » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:48 am

Live ELO (538) playoff projections :

AFC:
1. Chiefs 12-4
2. Ravens 12-4
3. Titans 12-4
4. Bills 10-6
5. Steelers 12-4
6. Browns 10-6
7. Colts 9-7

NFC:
1. Seahawks 12-4
2. Packers 11-5
3. Bucs 10-6
4. Eagles 6-9-1
5. Bears 11-5
6. Rams 10-6
7. Saints 10-6
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:01 am

bukie wrote:Live ELO (538) playoff projections :

AFC:
1. Chiefs 12-4
2. Ravens 12-4
3. Titans 12-4
4. Bills 10-6
5. Steelers 12-4
6. Browns 10-6
7. Colts 9-7

NFC:
1. Seahawks 12-4
2. Packers 11-5
3. Bucs 10-6
4. Eagles 6-9-1
5. Bears 11-5
6. Rams 10-6
7. Saints 10-6


Sure I’ll take an Eagles/Bears playoff rematch
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby rawaction » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:02 am

I wonder if Pace is willing and/or able to pull off a trade for a LG. The guy I've got my eye on is Andrew Norwell of the Jags. He's an elite run-blocking LG. The Jags have given up any and everyone without a long-term future there. He is under contract for 2021, but has a 15Mil cap, but could save 9Mil of that by cutting him. Same would hold true for the Bears if they were to acquire him. Not to mention, he's good enough to where you could extend him and less his cap hit for 2021. And he'd be worth reshuffling the OL for (Daniels to OC w/ Whitehair going to RG, or Daniels to RG next year).

Honestly, I don't know what will get this offense in gear. They don't really have many other places where they can realistically improve the personnel and jumpstart this offense to consistency. I don't even know if Norwell is available, but I feel like this is kind of a bonus season of competing before they give the QB position another shot for a new window with most of this defense. They gotta take their shot now.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby BigbadB » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:53 pm

rawaction wrote:I wonder if Pace is willing and/or able to pull off a trade for a LG. The guy I've got my eye on is Andrew Norwell of the Jags. He's an elite run-blocking LG. The Jags have given up any and everyone without a long-term future there. He is under contract for 2021, but has a 15Mil cap, but could save 9Mil of that by cutting him. Same would hold true for the Bears if they were to acquire him. Not to mention, he's good enough to where you could extend him and less his cap hit for 2021. And he'd be worth reshuffling the OL for (Daniels to OC w/ Whitehair going to RG, or Daniels to RG next year).

Honestly, I don't know what will get this offense in gear. They don't really have many other places where they can realistically improve the personnel and jumpstart this offense to consistency. I don't even know if Norwell is available, but I feel like this is kind of a bonus season of competing before they give the QB position another shot for a new window with most of this defense. They gotta take their shot now.


They need another play maker. We know it won't be Antonio Brown. LOL. They need a nice complement to ARob on the other side. I saw way too conservative of a game yesterday. Nagy doesn't seem willing to take chances and spread the field more, which is hurting the run game and it keeps every game too close. That's going to hurt when we start playing these good teams.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby rawaction » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:00 pm

BigbadB wrote:
rawaction wrote:I wonder if Pace is willing and/or able to pull off a trade for a LG. The guy I've got my eye on is Andrew Norwell of the Jags. He's an elite run-blocking LG. The Jags have given up any and everyone without a long-term future there. He is under contract for 2021, but has a 15Mil cap, but could save 9Mil of that by cutting him. Same would hold true for the Bears if they were to acquire him. Not to mention, he's good enough to where you could extend him and less his cap hit for 2021. And he'd be worth reshuffling the OL for (Daniels to OC w/ Whitehair going to RG, or Daniels to RG next year).

Honestly, I don't know what will get this offense in gear. They don't really have many other places where they can realistically improve the personnel and jumpstart this offense to consistency. I don't even know if Norwell is available, but I feel like this is kind of a bonus season of competing before they give the QB position another shot for a new window with most of this defense. They gotta take their shot now.


They need another play maker. We know it won't be Antonio Brown. LOL. They need a nice complement to ARob on the other side. I saw way too conservative of a game yesterday. Nagy doesn't seem willing to take chances and spread the field more, which is hurting the run game and it keeps every game too close. That's going to hurt when we start playing these good teams.


They do need a playmaker. But that would mean to come at the expense of Darnell Mooney, a rookie with great speed and huge upside. Or Anthony Miller, while he has his issues...he does have 2 game winning catches this year and the Bears still have plenty of hope for him. It's not going to happen at TE. Too much invested in Graham ($$ wise) and Kmet (draft status). Any playmaker you bring in would be taking snaps away from someone who has a future with this franchise. Their best shot at a playmaker was if they could have won the Le'Veon Bell sweepstakes last week.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby BigbadB » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:11 pm

rawaction wrote:
BigbadB wrote:
rawaction wrote:I wonder if Pace is willing and/or able to pull off a trade for a LG. The guy I've got my eye on is Andrew Norwell of the Jags. He's an elite run-blocking LG. The Jags have given up any and everyone without a long-term future there. He is under contract for 2021, but has a 15Mil cap, but could save 9Mil of that by cutting him. Same would hold true for the Bears if they were to acquire him. Not to mention, he's good enough to where you could extend him and less his cap hit for 2021. And he'd be worth reshuffling the OL for (Daniels to OC w/ Whitehair going to RG, or Daniels to RG next year).

Honestly, I don't know what will get this offense in gear. They don't really have many other places where they can realistically improve the personnel and jumpstart this offense to consistency. I don't even know if Norwell is available, but I feel like this is kind of a bonus season of competing before they give the QB position another shot for a new window with most of this defense. They gotta take their shot now.


They need another play maker. We know it won't be Antonio Brown. LOL. They need a nice complement to ARob on the other side. I saw way too conservative of a game yesterday. Nagy doesn't seem willing to take chances and spread the field more, which is hurting the run game and it keeps every game too close. That's going to hurt when we start playing these good teams.


They do need a playmaker. But that would mean to come at the expense of Darnell Mooney, a rookie with great speed and huge upside. Or Anthony Miller, while he has his issues...he does have 2 game winning catches this year and the Bears still have plenty of hope for him. It's not going to happen at TE. Too much invested in Graham ($$ wise) and Kmet (draft status). Any playmaker you bring in would be taking snaps away from someone who has a future with this franchise. Their best shot at a playmaker was if they could have won the Le'Veon Bell sweepstakes last week.


Do we have any idea when Lamar Miller will be ready to join the roster? I haven't heard much of anything about him and his rehab. The roster casualty can be Ginn Jr. He's done. Let Anthony Miller return punts.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:59 pm

being #1 in the division feels nice
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby gflore34 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:33 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:being #1 in the division feels nice


It does, Foles is nothing special but, he's average, able to make the correct reads most of the time, make most of the throws, average. If Mitch played yesterday I'm certain they don't score a TD after that interception in the 1st QT, in fact they have still may won the game but, the score probably would have been 17-16. Don't know why, but to me, 17 points seems to be Mitch' specialty, it's not true but, just seems about right every time Mitch starts. Checked the game logs, they've scored 17 points - 3 times, 16-5, 19-1 and 20-2 that's 11 of his 44 starts with only 16-20 points, didn't even want to look at 15,14,etc. was already depressing enough.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:47 pm

Foles had exactly one TD drive that started outside the opponents' 10. He looks a little better than Trubisky but I think average is being generous.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:47 pm

Foles had exactly one TD drive that started outside the opponents' 10. He looks a little better than Trubisky but I think average is being generous.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:48 pm

gflore34 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:being #1 in the division feels nice

Don't know why, but to me, 17 points seems to be Mitch' specialty, it's not true but, just seems about right every time Mitch starts. Checked the game logs, they've scored 17 points - 3 times, 16-5, 19-1 and 20-2 that's 11 of his 44 starts with only 16-20 points, didn't even want to look at 15,14,etc. was already depressing enough.

*Scrapping the MIN game where he got injured and adjusting the ATL game to 10 points*
Mean- 20.28
Median- 20
Mode- 24 (6 times) (next most common is 16, 4 times, and then several other games at 3 times [31, 17, 14, and 3 :(])

BUT, digging a little further and 1 of those 24 score games had a Def TD. So now we're more like; 24 (5x), 16 (4x), 17 (4x), 31 (3x), 14 (3x), 3 (3x)
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Thed Hoyerstein » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:51 pm

gflore34 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:being #1 in the division feels nice


It does, Foles is nothing special but, he's average, able to make the correct reads most of the time, make most of the throws, average. If Mitch played yesterday I'm certain they don't score a TD after that interception in the 1st QT, in fact they have still may won the game but, the score probably would have been 17-16. Don't know why, but to me, 17 points seems to be Mitch' specialty, it's not true but, just seems about right every time Mitch starts. Checked the game logs, they've scored 17 points - 3 times, 16-5, 19-1 and 20-2 that's 11 of his 44 starts with only 16-20 points, didn't even want to look at 15,14,etc. was already depressing enough.


such a fun (not) exercise to go through. excluding last year's vikings game at home where he got injured early, here are the ghastly point totals with number of times in parentheses:

17 (2)
16 (4)
15 (2)
14 (3)
13 (1)
12 (1)
10 (2)
7 (1)
3 (3!)
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:56 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Foles had exactly one TD drive that started outside the opponents' 10. He looks a little better than Trubisky but I think average is being generous.

If I put on my optimism hat, Foles quality of D's faced has much better. So while they're statistically very close right now, Foles has looked better by the eye test and is still a better bet to perform better than Mitch. Where that means he ultimately falls, I don't know. Los Angeles is the only other opponent all year that's currently a top 10 passer rating defense team. So while the D will have some tests yet to come, the worst of the schedule is over for the O.

Defensive passer rating
DET - 91.3 (15th)
NYG - 100.8 (23rd)
ATL - 114.1 (league worst)
IND - 71.7 (best in league)
TB - 82 (4th best)
CAR - 86.2 (6th best)

ETA:
Schedule ahead (Defense Passer Rating rank as of today)
Los Angeles (10)
New Orleans (29)
Tennessee (21)
Minnesota (x2) (30)
Green Bay (x2) (26)
Detroit (15)
Houston (31)
Jacksonville (27)

Or roughly, an average passer rating against of about 102-103. So if Foles is even an average starting QB, a 100 passer rating the rest of the way should be the expectation.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby rawaction » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:22 pm

It's funny because the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that the Bears whole strategy for choosing the starting QB was "hey we play some bad defenses early, let's see if Mitch can do something". Would explain the short leash and getting Foles ready for the Indy, TB portion of the schedule. Because if you played Trubisky vs. the Colts, you would have to keep him in there vs TB because you couldn't get Foles ready in 3 days.
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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby Bertz » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:27 pm

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Re: Week 6: Bears at Panthers, Sunday at noon on Fox

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:31 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1318285459508858880?s=19

Telling though that the divisional round is where any team on that list tops out at as far as end of season results go.
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