rawaction wrote: WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Actually reading through this, I think it was a little more complex than "knows Hou will score". It would be dumb just to concede a score. But you do want to use your TOs in succession to stop after 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down. At 2 and 1 you give them the 1st and 10 and try to get 3 stops with 3 successive TOs. The 5 yards therefor is what might analytically be worth the extra time, with the expected point change being minimal I assume. It would have to be 2nd and 4th or less to make this a potentially desirable move I think.
Definitely worth the time in that situation. The likelihood of converting 2nd & 1 is extremely high. And they were already in very make-able FG range. So, the concession is the first down. If you are going to give up a 1st anyway, you might as well get it over with and save time when that is a factor.
Yea, I think ultimately knowing the projected points at different yardages would be critical. For example is 2nd and 4 from a similar spot in the field equally as tough, or would you start burning your TOs in that spot and try for the stop. I know there is the occasional "they're gonna score, so preserve the clock" situations, but I don't think this was quite
Funny "let them score story"; Senior year of HS we were down late 6 to 7 and on defense and the opposing team bust off a huge gain to get inside the 5 yard line. So the call came in to let them score so we would get the ball back with time to try and tie. At the snap 10 of 11 of us stood and just let them run it straight up the middle. Our middle LB, who was kind of dopey, was the only guy who didn't get the call and went and lit up their RB, causing a forced fumble, probably due to the fact the RB was so caught off guard as well. We recovered the fumble and then had a chance to outright win (which we unfortunately weren't able to do, but it was a pretty funny sequence of events anyways).