OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.
I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.
It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.
I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.