NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby CubColtPacer » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:32 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.


I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.

It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.

I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby rawaction » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:36 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.


No onside kick attempt either (which was the right call). But I can't believe they kicked the FG. Worst case scenario, Tampa has to get a 1st down in 3 plays from their own 8. They probably don't throw on 1st down either with Brady from his own endzone. You have to force a 3 & out to stay alive either way. The choices were 1 play chance for a TD, stop 3 plays, get the ball back around your own 40 or no chance for TD, kickoff, stop 3 plays, get the ball back around your own 20. Rodgers should have run on 3rd down anyway to at least make it closer and a bigger no-brainer decision, though.

Also, WTF Brady. Dude wins 6 Superbowls, after 20 years at a place that will never host a Superbowl. Leaves for 1 year and becomes the QB of the first team to ever host a Superbowl. Making history when there is barely any history left.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:41 pm

Soul wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

That one will live on in Packer lore forever.


I will make sure it lives on in Packer lore. Time and time again.
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NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby Soul » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:43 pm

The only thing further Brady could do is actually win the Super Bowl after doing all that previous stuff.
Last edited by Soul on Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby rawaction » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:43 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.


I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.

It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.

I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.


I mean, they almost literally have 0 chance to win in regulation because they were down 8. So, them being down less than a TD naturally increases their chances because there was 0 chance of a tie at that point.

#2 is the only point I halfway buy (Brady w/ ball w/ timeouts). But when you're losing, you have to get there first. You absolutely make them try to run out the clock in the shadow of their goalline. It's not like they were at the 20. Not to mention, they could have gotten yards without a TD and made it even more tough for Tampa.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby Soul » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:46 pm

rawaction wrote:
CubColtPacer wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.


I couldn't believe it. I thought it was an awful decision at first. But gaming it out, I don't think it's quite as crazy as it initially appeared. I think people are underrating 1) the 2 point conversion only being a 50/50 chance, 2) Tom Brady having the ball and timeouts only needing a FG to win the game and 3) OT only being a 50/50 chance if it gets there.

It's obviously easier to convert a 4th and goal from the 8 than to 1) stop them and 2) drive with likely no timeouts to score a last second TD. Quite a bit easier. But is it easier enough to also have to essentially flip a coin 3 times and have them all come up heads? That's where I'm not sure and I would like to see a better description of the math.

I looked up on numberfire, and GB's win probability went up over 3 percent when they successfully kicked the field goal.


I mean, they almost literally have 0 chance to win in regulation because they were down 8. So, them being down less than a TD naturally increases their chances because there was 0 chance of a tie at that point.

#2 is the only point I halfway buy (Brady w/ ball w/ timeouts). But when you're losing, you have to get there first. You absolutely make them try to run out the clock in the shadow of their goalline. It's not like they were at the 20. Not to mention, they could have gotten yards without a TD and made it even more tough for Tampa.

If any team should know that you don’t give the ball to a HOF QB to run the clock out, it should be the Packers.

There’s just no way around this being a supremely horrible call.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby d_money » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:52 pm

Cubfanintheknow wrote:
Soul wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.

That one will live on in Packer lore forever.


I will make sure it lives on in Packer lore. Time and time again.

+1
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby abuck1220 » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:56 pm

i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby Derwood » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:03 am

That's not a great fumble, KC
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:07 am

So Dawson Knox played on the same team as DK Metcalf and AJ Brown at Ole Miss

...and they won 5 games #-o
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby Soul » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:11 am

abuck1220 wrote:i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

I just saw the highlights and I’ll bet Rodgers is wishing he ran it on the 3rd down play too. It didn’t look like the Bucs had anyone in position to stop him.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby d_money » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:29 am

Soul wrote:
abuck1220 wrote:i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.

I just saw the highlights and I’ll bet Rodgers is wishing he ran it on the 3rd down play too. It didn’t look like the Bucs had anyone in position to stop him.

Agreed. I was surprised he didn’t.
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Re: RE: Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby rawaction » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:49 am

abuck1220 wrote:i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.
Analytics say going for 2 was the correct call there.

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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby CoolHandLuke » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:51 am

As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby CubColtPacer » Mon Jan 25, 2021 12:58 am

abuck1220 wrote:i bet they go for the 4th down if they’re down 7 instead of 8. going for two with 1/4 of the game left was dumber than the FG decision.


Ever since they moved the extra point distance back, going for 2 is almost never a terrible call. It's basically double the points for double the risk.

But you are right on the end of the game. Being down 7 makes going for it a much more obvious decision.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby rawaction » Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:07 am

CoolHandLuke wrote:As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.


I get this angle. I just think stopping them on a drive starting at the 8 is easier than stopping them on a drive starting at the 20-25. And consequently scoring after a punt from inside the opponents 10 is easier than scoring after a punt from the opponents 30-35.

And now that I think about it, I think LaFleur made that call because it was before the 2-minute warning. But if that's the case, the squib kickoff is another bad decision because if the returner didn't give himself up, the Packers would have lost that in their favor if that was part of the decision making.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby Soul » Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:07 am

CoolHandLuke wrote:As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.

You’ve got to remember, they were giving the ball to the GOAT with an opportunity to ice the game. This isn’t a normal calculation at all.

You can boil this down to a binary choice if you want to. You give the ball to your HOF QB to save the game. Or you give the ball to the other team’s HOF QB hoping he won’t ice it.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby NOLA » Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:19 am

Re: Packers kicking that FG

If they don’t make it on 4th and goal, they have to make a stop and score a TD. Kicking that FG means they still have to make a stop and score a TD. They had a chance to tie the game, make a stop and kick a FG to win in regulation. It makes no sense.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby NOLA » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:10 am

There’s a lot of people out there that like Tony Romo as a color guy, but holy hell, he is awful. Just a dumb goober who guesses wrong on every play. What makes it worse is that even after he’s wrong he talks over the live action trying to explain how “it was there though”. Just bad.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:12 am



McDermott & LaFleur
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby rawaction » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:22 am

NOLA wrote:There’s a lot of people out there that like Tony Romo as a color guy, but holy hell, he is awful. Just a dumb goober who guesses wrong on every play. What makes it worse is that even after he’s wrong he talks over the live action trying to explain how “it was there though”. Just bad.


I think he was really good at first. He was relatively young when he started in the booth. And he wasn't a meathead like most of the defensive guys who do color commentary. But I agree he's pretty terrible to me now.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby soccer10k » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:33 am

OleMissCub wrote:Kicking that FG is one of the all time stupid decisions I’ve seen. Just completely bonkers.


Yeah, that’s just as bad, if not worse than the punts by the Titans and Steelers in the first round.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby soccer10k » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:46 am

Soul wrote:Hard to believe. Literally picked up Brady and instant Super Bowl. That’s how good he is.


Tampa went 7-9 last year with a QB who threw 30 interceptions. All they needed was a competent QB who could see straight and knew what he was doing.

They struggled to beat a 7-9 Wash team with a crap QB and they only beat the Saints because Brees threw 3 picks and can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards own the field.

Obviously he was the guy who was available but there’s probably a dozen QBs who could have come in and led Tampa to an 11-5 record and won a playoff round or two.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:51 am

CoolHandLuke wrote:As a Packers fan, I wanted them to kick the fg. I just thought they had a better chance to stop them and score than get the td and the 2 point conversion, and then still having to stop them from driving and kicking a fg to win.

Lol. I had to take a walk around the block because it was so stupid. I didn't even stick around to see if the FG was good.
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Re: NFL perpetual 2020 regular and postseason non Bears thread

Postby d_money » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:55 am

soccer10k wrote:
Soul wrote:Hard to believe. Literally picked up Brady and instant Super Bowl. That’s how good he is.


Tampa went 7-9 last year with a QB who threw 30 interceptions. All they needed was a competent QB who could see straight and knew what he was doing.

They struggled to beat a 7-9 Wash team with a crap QB and they only beat the Saints because Brees threw 3 picks and can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards own the field.

Obviously he was the guy who was available but there’s probably a dozen QBs who could have come in and led Tampa to an 11-5 record and won a playoff round or two.

Hopefully the 2020 Bears who went 8-8 can select one of the dozen available QB’s for the 2021 season so they can win a round or 2 next year.
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