The Bryce is Right, Bitch

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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:18 pm

David wrote:schwarber's gonna end up our brian giles to the 90s indians if we trade him


plus then we will need to find someone new to fill the leadoff hitter position
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby davell » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:24 pm

Schwarber is going to be too good for us to consider moving. Ideally, Heyward puts up a .750+ OPS and we can send prospects with him to someone. More likely, we move Zobrist, in the same manner. With Hayward basically becoming the highest paid defensive replacement in MLB.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:34 pm

David wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:i know we won't need to do anything else, but curious what other moves people think we make after signing harper. do they try to deal someone of the schwarber/happ/almora group, one of heyward/zobrist, send la stella off to wherever jake lands, or just say horsefeathers it and keep everybody?

having harper, bryant, rizzo and contreras in the lineup offers a lot of flexibility for the other four non-pitcher spots.

eta: i know there's a full season to be played before harper becomes a cub and a lot of things can and will change. just curious what people think if everything goes mostly as expected.


i could see sending out assets to salary dump heyward and/or zobrist (assuming no big bouncebacks from either)


If Heyward has a big bounceback in 2018 I would hope that would be all the window Theo needs to find someone to take him on in a trade.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:34 pm

Yeah my preferred route right now is to send out Zobrist to clear a spot/some marginal money for Harper. Heyward can move to CF, Happ becomes the super-sub and plays the OF vs lefties and 2B vs righties to shield Javy and maybe work him in at 1B here and there as a potential Rizzo replacement down the road, Almora is the 4/5 OF and plays vs lefties and is a late inning defensive replacement. There’s enough playing time there to keep everyone but Zobrist.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:35 pm

I assume in terms of roster composition Bryce would likely be a one for one swap with Heyward. How good Heyward is in 2018 determining how painful the process of getting him off the roster is.

I can see two situations where it doesnt work like that though. First is if our rotation is in a bad place going into next year. Lets say one of our top guys needs TJ and Montgomery sucks as a fill in. I would think the FO probably needs to trade one of Schwarber/Happ/Almora for a starter at that point. The other scenario is if Heyward is good this year, but not quite good enough to opt out. Like let's say he's a 4 win guy, and shows every indication of that being who he is going forward. You want that guy starting in the outfield, even if he's got slightly negative contract value.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:38 pm

I’m keeping Heyward when we get Bryce. It would be too costly to dump him in either money and/or prospects. Hopefully he’s good enough the next two seasons that he opts out in 2 years. Zobrist is the guy I’m moving and maybe Monty is the guy I’m attaching to him (with Smyly hopefully back we have a replacement along with Alzolay, etc hopefully taking steps forward in the system).
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby champaignchris » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:02 pm

I think Zobrist is as good as gone heading into 2019 regardless of whatever else is going on. The only real question is how much the Cubs have to pay for someone else to take him.

Now, if Heyward can post a 760-770 OPS (career .756 even with the last two seasons), things could get interesting with him.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby David » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:53 pm



just stumbled across this...holy crap that bat (the title is dumb - but i think he's like a 17 or 18 year old kid there)
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby PackLandVA » Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:38 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah my preferred route right now is to send out Zobrist to clear a spot/some marginal money for Harper. Heyward can move to CF, Happ becomes the super-sub and plays the OF vs lefties and 2B vs righties to shield Javy and maybe work him in at 1B here and there as a potential Rizzo replacement down the road, Almora is the 4/5 OF and plays vs lefties and is a late inning defensive replacement. There’s enough playing time there to keep everyone but Zobrist.


BLASPHEMY!!!!!
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby HawkeTrackler » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:34 pm

David wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqB7GiNE-ig

just stumbled across this...holy crap that bat (the title is dumb - but i think he's like a 17 or 18 year old kid there)


Yeah he's 19 in that video. In 2019 he'll be on the wrong side of 25 and will likely have lost a lot of that power. No thanks.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Bear Cub » Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:30 am

Any guesses as to how many pages will be listed by next winter about Harper? I say 300.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:46 pm

So is the assumption still generally that he and Boras are almost certainly going to be looking for a long-term deal? Or would they maybe be swayed by a shorter deal with an insane yearly salary?

The former definitely still seems to make the most sense since if he took a ridiculously expensive 5-year deal he'd be on the wrong side of 30 at the end of it and that seems to be a rule of thumb teams are sticking to now in terms of who they're avoiding big contracts with. I guess something like that might make sense with Trout, even though he's older, since he's been more consistent and more worth the kind of crazy annual salary he could possibly get in a shorter contract.

I suck at guessing baseball contracts, so is some kind of 10-year deal still the most likely outcome for Harper? What are the odds that they'd want or be willing to go with opt-outs? Someone lay this out for me.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:51 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:So is the assumption still generally that he and Boras are almost certainly going to be looking for a long-term deal? Or would they maybe be swayed by a shorter deal with an insane yearly salary?

The former definitely still seems to make the most sense since if he took a ridiculously expensive 5-year deal he'd be on the wrong side of 30 at the end of it and that seems to be a rule of thumb teams are sticking to now in terms of who they're avoiding big contracts with. I guess something like that might make sense with Trout, even though he's older, since he's been more consistent and more worth the kind of crazy annual salary he could possibly get in a shorter contract.

I suck at guessing baseball contracts, so is some kind of 10-year deal still the most likely outcome for Harper? What are the odds that they'd want or be willing to go with opt-outs? Someone lay this out for me.


I think he'll look for a longer deal with numerous opt outs. Say an opt out every 2 years. If he signs with the Cubs, I assume one of the opt outs would be in 2021.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Derwood » Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:52 pm

I also suck at baseball contracts, but it would seem that at the rate that salaries are escalating, that locking in for 2018 rates for 10 years would be bad for Harper. He'll only be 26 in October, so he could go sign for a 3/$120 or 4/$160 deal and then be primed for another insane contract at age 29 or 30
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:31 pm

Derwood wrote:I also suck at baseball contracts, but it would seem that at the rate that salaries are escalating, that locking in for 2018 rates for 10 years would be bad for Harper. He'll only be 26 in October, so he could go sign for a 3/$120 or 4/$160 deal and then be primed for another insane contract at age 29 or 30



That's what opt-outs are for. Sign a 10/400 deal and have an opt out after a few years in case salaries rise dramatically.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:18 pm

Yeah he’s gonna get his 10/350-400 and opt outs in first 2-4 years and probably will have a little higher AAV the first 3-5 years.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Sun Mar 18, 2018 6:45 pm

Philly offers 10/400 and we offer 10/350 will that be close enough for us?
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:05 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:So is the assumption still generally that he and Boras are almost certainly going to be looking for a long-term deal? Or would they maybe be swayed by a shorter deal with an insane yearly salary?

The former definitely still seems to make the most sense since if he took a ridiculously expensive 5-year deal he'd be on the wrong side of 30 at the end of it and that seems to be a rule of thumb teams are sticking to now in terms of who they're avoiding big contracts with. I guess something like that might make sense with Trout, even though he's older, since he's been more consistent and more worth the kind of crazy annual salary he could possibly get in a shorter contract.

I suck at guessing baseball contracts, so is some kind of 10-year deal still the most likely outcome for Harper? What are the odds that they'd want or be willing to go with opt-outs? Someone lay this out for me.


I think he'll look for a longer deal with numerous opt outs. Say an opt out every 2 years. If he signs with the Cubs, I assume one of the opt outs would be in 2021.


Yeah I think Boras tipped his hand with the JD Martinez contract. I expect something like this too. For the first 3-4 years it's a normal deal, but afterwords opt outs galore.

I do sort of wonder if we might see the opposite though. Harper is the first chance at a $500 million contract, and likely the last one for a while. I could see 12/500 with just one opt out around his 30th birthday and maybe even some team friendly clauses as well. Breaking the 500 million and 40 per year ceilings would be huge for the players as a whole, even if Bryce might be leaving a little bit of lifetime earnings on the table.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:19 pm

I guess in starting this I was more thinking ahead to what Trout might see. He'll be, what, 29 when he's a free agent? Could we maybe see a team offer something crazy like $250 million for 5 years?
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Splendid Splinter » Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:38 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess in starting this I was more thinking ahead to what Trout might see. He'll be, what, 29 when he's a free agent? Could we maybe see a team offer something crazy like $250 million for 5 years?


Yeah, he'll be 29. Imagine if he didn't do that extension. He would be a FA with Harper next offseason.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:20 pm

Splendid Splinter wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess in starting this I was more thinking ahead to what Trout might see. He'll be, what, 29 when he's a free agent? Could we maybe see a team offer something crazy like $250 million for 5 years?


Yeah, he'll be 29. Imagine if he didn't do that extension. He would be a FA with Harper next offseason.


No, he would've been a free agent this offseason and not next.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Splendid Splinter » Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:44 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Splendid Splinter wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess in starting this I was more thinking ahead to what Trout might see. He'll be, what, 29 when he's a free agent? Could we maybe see a team offer something crazy like $250 million for 5 years?


Yeah, he'll be 29. Imagine if he didn't do that extension. He would be a FA with Harper next offseason.


No, he would've been a free agent this offseason and not next.


Weird. I saw it somewhere that his service time for 2018 season is 6.070. Must've read it wrong or something.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:16 pm

Splendid Splinter wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Splendid Splinter wrote:
Yeah, he'll be 29. Imagine if he didn't do that extension. He would be a FA with Harper next offseason.


No, he would've been a free agent this offseason and not next.


Weird. I saw it somewhere that his service time for 2018 season is 6.070. Must've read it wrong or something.


I've seen a few articles this offseason mention he would've been a free agent before the 2018 season. Brett at BN has referenced that too.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Mar 18, 2018 11:22 pm

Splendid Splinter wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Splendid Splinter wrote:
Yeah, he'll be 29. Imagine if he didn't do that extension. He would be a FA with Harper next offseason.


No, he would've been a free agent this offseason and not next.


Weird. I saw it somewhere that his service time for 2018 season is 6.070. Must've read it wrong or something.


That's his service time heading into the season, i.e. right now. That would have been enough to qualify for free agency this offseason.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Splendid Splinter » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:17 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Splendid Splinter wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
No, he would've been a free agent this offseason and not next.


Weird. I saw it somewhere that his service time for 2018 season is 6.070. Must've read it wrong or something.


That's his service time heading into the season, i.e. right now. That would have been enough to qualify for free agency this offseason.



Ahh.. gotcha. I did interpret it wrong then. Thanks.
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