The Bryce is Right, Bitch

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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 7:56 pm

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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Splendid Splinter » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:23 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bluescale wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.



This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.


This was my post on July 7th.

Red Sox leads MLB in runs per game with 5.25. From June 7th to 16th (10 games), they scored 29 runs. Astros from April 6th to 16th scored 27 with an 8 and 5 run game in that stretch. Indians scored 29 from April 1st to 11th. Yankees had a 32 run stretch from June 6th to 17th.

Cubs do have a 24, 27, and 29 runs 10 game stretch already. So yes, it is a little Jeckyl and Hyde compared to the 4 teams above. Despite all that, Cubs are 1st in NL and tied for 4th in MLB in runs per game. They're like 15 games over .500. Could they be better by being more consistent at scoring runs? Sure, but it's baseball. Stretches like this IS going to happen


Those 4 teams 10 game stretch was their lowest up to that point. So Cubs had 3 stretches worse than the Yankees and that's just up to July 7th. That's also comparing to the elite teams and not against an average team.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:27 pm

Truly, the 2018 Cubs offense was the Joe Flacco of baseball.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby David » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:33 pm

wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

yep i'm going with that :-"
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby big ball chunky time » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:48 pm

David wrote:wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

yep i'm going with that :-"


if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby David » Fri Dec 07, 2018 8:52 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
David wrote:wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

yep i'm going with that :-"


if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.


yep ill take that too
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:13 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Truly, the 2018 Cubs offense was the Joe Flacco of baseball.

...so, elite?
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Backtobanks » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:16 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
David wrote:wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

yep i'm going with that :-"


if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.


As long as we're doing wishful thinking, don't forget the trade of Chatwood, Duensing, Russell, Kintzler and Heyward for Trout so that we can clear some contracts.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Bertz » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:30 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
David wrote:wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

yep i'm going with that :-"


if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.


If you replace Machado with Andrew Miller or Zach Britton, I think that's the optimistic but reasonable interpretation of what's going on right now. Like, we have enough money for Bryce, but because of Hamels there's no room for anything else. We desperately need to add another high end reliever and maybe something else on the position player side (like a backup catcher or hopefully a backup SS who's not a scumbag), and so they're trying really hard to move money in the trade market. The people that Mooney et all are talking to see how desperately they're trying to move money. and assume they don't already have the 30+ million lying around for Bryce.

More realistically, they've got 15-20 million to play with and would need to move all of Chatwood just to get Bryce, to say nothing of bringing in another reliever and/or other stuff.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Andy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:32 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bluescale wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.



This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:44 pm

Andy wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bluescale wrote:

This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.

I remember not being a fan of his methodology, but generally agreeing with the conclusion.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby stitchface » Fri Dec 07, 2018 10:33 pm

Tim wrote:
Andy wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.

I remember not being a fan of his methodology, but generally agreeing with the conclusion.


Cubs averaged 4.67 runs per game with a SDp of 3.56

Cubs opponents averaged 3.96 runs per game with a SDp of 3.00
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Bluescale » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:35 pm

stitchface wrote:
Tim wrote:
Andy wrote:Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.

I remember not being a fan of his methodology, but generally agreeing with the conclusion.


Cubs averaged 4.67 runs per game with a SDp of 3.56

Cubs opponents averaged 3.96 runs per game with a SDp of 3.00


Playoff teams this year averaged 4.97 runs per game, with a SDp of 3.37.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:38 pm

stitchface wrote:
Tim wrote:
Andy wrote:Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.

I remember not being a fan of his methodology, but generally agreeing with the conclusion.


Cubs averaged 4.67 runs per game with a SDp of 3.56

Cubs opponents averaged 3.96 runs per game with a SDp of 3.00

What were we at through July before everyone broke and/or died?
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby stitchface » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:56 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
stitchface wrote:
Tim wrote:I remember not being a fan of his methodology, but generally agreeing with the conclusion.


Cubs averaged 4.67 runs per game with a SDp of 3.56

Cubs opponents averaged 3.96 runs per game with a SDp of 3.00

What were we at through July before everyone broke and/or died?



5.01 w/ SD 3.82
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby big ball chunky time » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:07 am

Cubs will have Harper signed by this time next week
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:43 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Cubs will have Harper signed by this time next week

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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:03 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Cubs will have Harper signed by this time next week

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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:59 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Cubs will have Harper signed by this time next week


I think you meant to put this in the cards and collectibles thread.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Backtobanks » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:29 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:Cubs will have Harper signed by this time next week





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Theo Epstein: "No one hitter, especially in the seas where we're fishing, is going to transform the offense. It's going to be a continued evolution of what I think is a group of really, really talented position players that stumbled badly in the second half of last year."
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:42 pm

Fishing analogies?!?

Brace yourselves: he's gone full Dusty.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby d_money » Sat Dec 08, 2018 2:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Fishing analogies?!?

Brace yourselves: he's gone full Dusty.

The one that got away...
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:23 pm

d_money wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Fishing analogies?!?

Brace yourselves: he's gone full Dusty.

The one that got away...

Yeah but you should have seen the size of his offer
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby weis21 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:30 pm

Bryce is coming to the cubs. It’s been in the works for months if not years. Theo is doing all this posturing to save like 1 million AAV and I love him for it.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby d_money » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:22 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
d_money wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Fishing analogies?!?

Brace yourselves: he's gone full Dusty.

The one that got away...

Yeah but you should have seen the size of his offer

A rising tide lifts all boats. So we go that going for us.
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