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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby davell » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:45 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:There’s still a lot of time for injuries or underperformance to happen, but right now you don’t really need to worry about having money for any other additions. The rotation is spoken for, with Smyly, Montgomery, and Azolay being depth options. Wilson is the only reliever leaving, and Smyly needs a roster spot plus Maples and maybe another downstream arm are optionable pen possibilities.

If you absolutely need to free up money, selling off Zobrist is the easiest option, assuming that Happ is a functioning major leaguer and they don’t mind him getting some infield time(La Stella and/or Bote being IF reserves is also a possibility). You don’t have to get rid of Heyward and you definitely don’t need to attach a player as valuable as Happ to him to make room for Harper.


To get rid of all of Heywards deal or you just don't want to go down that particular road? Because I think it would take a lot to get any team to take 5/106 off our books, if we DID go down that route. Of which, it'd be to free up OF AB's obviously. Again, I'm not advocating that as the easiest option.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby davell » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:47 am

Cubswin11 wrote:We also can't rule out Theo pulling his magic and getting Harper for closer to $30-35 in aav than the $40-50 aav that some seem to think he's going to get.


Who knows? I'm hopeful on that. But, I think 12/400 may be the low end from an AAV standpoint. Granted, that'd help a ton.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:49 am

I think the chances are high that Heyward is simply a sunk cost. Granted, all it takes is one team, but with teams being so careful about money this past offseason, it seems like the Cubs would have to go too far to get teams to bite. I'm not all that convinced a team will necessarily say, Ian Happ, okay, we'll take a huge chunk of Heyward's deal. It may make logical sense, but I'm not convinced a team will do that. The other alternative is to find a bad contract swap to alleviate the burden somewhat, but it's hard to find a good matching deal.

Anyhow, I'm still of the opinion that Bryce Harper is likely staying with the Nationals. Personally, I think it's something like 70/30 Harper stays with the Nationals. All the rumors down this way point strongly in that direction - the Nationals will pony up unless a team gets to ridiculous levels (and I think ridiculous levels is something like 10/500 ... and I don't know if a team gets there), Boras is ridiculously close to the Lerners (they even acknowledge it ... he meets with the Lerners each summer, IIRC, bypassing Mike Rizzo), and Harper does like it in DC. With the way the Nationals do deferrals and Boras being amenable to it, plus the fact that the Nationals are open to opt-outs, I just don't see Harper budging unless someone blows the house down so much that the Nationals have to move on.

Anyhow, more a total side note, but I have a hunch on Philly. It'll really come down to how things go, but I think they may try to swing a big deal with Baltimore. Not just Machado ... I think they may try to swing a deal for Schoop as well, if Schoop is healthy and hitting. With how close Schoop and Machado are, it may give them a bargaining chip, along with money, to convince Machado to stick around. They'll have the middle infield talent and pitching to flip to the Orioles, and it would help the Orioles look a bit better by potentially snagging some high end talent, rather than settle for whatever teams would fork over for a rental.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:01 am

Keep Heyward forever as a reminder that opt-outs are never perfunctory or meaningless. They are always hugely in the player's favor.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:23 am

The one thing I wonder about Harper is this ... could a team try to reel him in with a blow away the water short term offer, and hope that he enjoys it so much that he sticks around? The Phillies would be the logical guess on that, due to their clean sheet and the offers they made this winter, but if the contract gets too big and long, teams, like the Nationals, get "creative" with deferrals and all sorts of other junk. If a team came in and bombed the bidding with say ... 3/150 ... something that would be pretty crazy ... and hope that they get their foot in the door, could that sway things.

Personally, once things get too long and too big, then I think the ball gets back in the Nationals court. But a short term blow away offer would force a lot of juggling on their end, because I think, even with deferrals, too lazy to check this morning, Scherzer and Strasburg's contracts are kicking up a lot soon, and Rendon needs a deal soon.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Derwood » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:06 pm

Bryce is a swell guy who will happily backload his contract so we stay under the LT for a few years
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Tim » Mon Apr 30, 2018 12:23 pm

Derwood wrote:Bryce is a swell guy who will happily backload his contract so we stay under the LT for a few years

That's not how the LT calculation works. It uses the AAV of the contract.

I do think there's a possibility of doing something like 12/480 instead of 10/450, which would help significantly. My hope is that after winning another title in 2018, Zobrist decides he's had enough days under the bright lights and retires. The championship halo surrounds a somewhat resurgent Heyward and we can find a team willing to take on half his salary. That gives us more than enough flexibility under the max penalty to get it done.

Lineup:

1) RF - Harper
2) 3B - Bryant
3) 1B - Rizzo
4) C - Contreras
5) LF - Schwarber
6) 2B - Baez
7) CF - Happ
8) SS - Russell
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:03 pm

toonsterwu wrote:The one thing I wonder about Harper is this ... could a team try to reel him in with a blow away the water short term offer, and hope that he enjoys it so much that he sticks around? The Phillies would be the logical guess on that, due to their clean sheet and the offers they made this winter, but if the contract gets too big and long, teams, like the Nationals, get "creative" with deferrals and all sorts of other junk. If a team came in and bombed the bidding with say ... 3/150 ... something that would be pretty crazy ... and hope that they get their foot in the door, could that sway things.

.

No. He’s going to get his 300-500 guaranteed but just have opt outs. Makes no sense for him to only do 3/150.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:15 pm

davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:There’s still a lot of time for injuries or underperformance to happen, but right now you don’t really need to worry about having money for any other additions. The rotation is spoken for, with Smyly, Montgomery, and Azolay being depth options. Wilson is the only reliever leaving, and Smyly needs a roster spot plus Maples and maybe another downstream arm are optionable pen possibilities.

If you absolutely need to free up money, selling off Zobrist is the easiest option, assuming that Happ is a functioning major leaguer and they don’t mind him getting some infield time(La Stella and/or Bote being IF reserves is also a possibility). You don’t have to get rid of Heyward and you definitely don’t need to attach a player as valuable as Happ to him to make room for Harper.


To get rid of all of Heywards deal or you just don't want to go down that particular road? Because I think it would take a lot to get any team to take 5/106 off our books, if we DID go down that route. Of which, it'd be to free up OF AB's obviously. Again, I'm not advocating that as the easiest option.


I think trading Heyward being the best option is very unlikely. Heyward in an OF that has Schwarber, Almora, and Harper is a perfect fit, and all the other position players have at least some IF flexibility if they're even productive(Happ) or on the roster(Zobrist).
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby DonnieD » Tue May 01, 2018 11:29 am

Does anyone think Bryce needs the largest total dollar contract *and* the highest AAV contract for his ego? If not the just offer him 25/$500 and call it a day. Front load with some opt outs and stay under the LT.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Derwood » Tue May 01, 2018 11:44 am

I’m going to say the commissioners office may have something to say about a 25 year deal
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue May 01, 2018 11:56 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Hopefully we do just say horsefeathers it and sign him and don’t get rid of anyone and the playing time will figure itself out like it always does. But yeah Heyward is the move, I wonder if Heyward+Monty+Prospect is what we’d look to do. Find a team who thinks Monty is a starter and Smyly takes his spot on the team.


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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby DonnieD » Tue May 01, 2018 12:18 pm

Then make it 23 years instead of 25. I’m not sure the commissioner’s office would be able to tell one of the game’s biggest stars he’s not allowed to play until he is the same age that Julio Franco, Jamie Moyer, Bartolo Colon, and several other people have played to.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue May 01, 2018 4:29 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:We also can't rule out Theo pulling his magic and getting Harper for closer to $30-35 in aav than the $40-50 aav that some seem to think he's going to get.


Bryce =/= Yu
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby champaignchris » Tue May 01, 2018 7:58 pm

With all their other free agents and Zimmerman, Strasburg and Scherzer combining to make about $95M, will the Nats be able to sign Harper for $40+M per year and put a WS caliber team around him? I’m sure he doesn’t want to be National League Mike Trout.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue May 01, 2018 8:00 pm

champaignchris wrote:With all their other free agents and Zimmerman, Strasburg and Scherzer combining to make about $95M, will the Nats be able to sign Harper for $40+M per year and put a WS caliber team around him? I’m sure he doesn’t want to be National League Mike Trout.

That won't be an issue
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun May 20, 2018 8:15 pm

champaignchris wrote:With all their other free agents and Zimmerman, Strasburg and Scherzer combining to make about $95M, will the Nats be able to sign Harper for $40+M per year and put a WS caliber team around him? I’m sure he doesn’t want to be National League Mike Trout.


Yes. The reason is this - they have an excellent system despite all their young MLB talent.

Actually, if there's any team that could afford to somewhat let go of Bryce Harper, it might be the Nationals. Victor Robles looks like, barring a physical setback, a legitimate top talent who has 5 tools. Juan Soto might be the best young offensive talent in the entire minors ... including perhaps Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. If he's not, then he's in the conversation. Even if those two graduate, a system with Carter Kieboom (a possible top 50 prospect next year), Will Crowe, Erick Fedde is a decent start, along with whatever they add in this year's draft (and one of my favorite boom/bust sleepers in the minors - Daniel Johnson ... although I tend to think he might end up more as a 4th OF, not enough hit tool to be a regular, but offers enough offensive/defensive ability to find a role).

It'd have to be a staggered deal with deferrals, and there would definitely be opt outs, but they could do it. Daniel Murphy's contract is coming up, Ryan Zimmerman ends after 2019, Gonzalez/Wieters/Madson/Kelley are all finishing up. Any team signing Bryce will need to be creative, but yes, on paper, the Nationals can do it (and the Angels, with Ohtani, and an improving system, look like a team that could contend while Trout is still in his prime, a big surprise compared to recent past). They could trade Eaton to clear more short term salary space if needed, and Carter Kieboom might be ready for 2nd base by 2019 (more likely late 2019, but they might not need to spend big on the spot).

Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future.

____
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Bull » Sun May 20, 2018 8:33 pm

toonsterwu wrote:
Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future.

____


I agree with most everything you’ve said. The thing is the Cubs go sooo deep. The fact that you went KB/Rizzo/Wily/Schwarber but could have gone KB/Rizzo/Javy/Russell or Happ or Almora and made your point just as well is what tells the tale for me.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun May 20, 2018 10:22 pm

toonsterwu wrote:Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.


On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun May 20, 2018 10:36 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.


On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].


Not to mention the two pitchers mentioned are pre-injured BOR fodder and both Soto and Robles have lost lots of reps to injuries

I think the Nats have enough talent to give their fans an entertaining enough summer or two post-Harper before bottoming out by 2021 or so.
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Sun May 20, 2018 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby philosophizer75 » Sun May 20, 2018 11:28 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.


On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].


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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Mon May 21, 2018 2:30 am

honest question that I’ve never really known the answer to. is toonster a Nats fan? An orioles fan? or a cubs fan? I wanna say cubs, but most of his posts seem to be through beltway colored glasses.

I don’t follow the Nats closely, but I can’t really get behind the idea that the “Nationals defensive core looks better” than the team with Russell, Javy, Bryant, Rizzo, Heyward, Almora and the best defensive player in baseball.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Mon May 21, 2018 2:39 am

Bull wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much. There's more offense with the Cubs (Although how much more depends on how big a believer one is in Soto/Robles, and I am). Nationals defensive core looks better, but they are in a tougher division for the future.

____


I agree with most everything you’ve said. The thing is the Cubs go sooo deep. The fact that you went KB/Rizzo/Wily/Schwarber but could have gone KB/Rizzo/Javy/Russell or Happ or Almora and made your point just as well is what tells the tale for me.


I don't particularly view Javy/Russell as core players. That may be harsh, but I think push comes to shove when it comes time to offer extensions, those guys are definitely, as of right now, a step below. Happ/Almora are another notch below those two for me, although Almora may deserve to be on the same plane as Russell/Javy.

That's me, though.
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon May 21, 2018 2:47 am

Russell is 7 months younger and has put up more WAR than Turner in their careers
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Re: THE Bryce Harper in 2018 Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Mon May 21, 2018 2:54 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:Heck, if I'm being fair ... I'm not so sure the Cubs future is necessarily better than the Nationals. I really love Soto, and a core of Soto/Robles/Turner/Rendon plus Scherzer/Strasburg in the short term, and an ownership that you know will spend ... is very, very tantalizing. Sure, KB/Rizzo/Contreras/Schwarber top that, but I'm not so sure it's by all that much.


On any timeline that would be relevant to Bryce Harper, that Cubs core is significantly better. Soto and Robles have a combined 235 PA above A-ball, the odds of them outproducing Contreras/Schwarber before 2021 are not high, and the odds of them bridging the huge quality gap between Bryzzo and Rendon/Turner are lower than that. And then you’ve also got the fact that the Cubs have 4 other former Top-50 prospects as position player depth compared to...the hope that Michael Taylor finds his AA form somehow and [file not found].


Leaving aside all else and focusing on just timeline/talent/ability to win ...

Elite offensive prospects tend to perform. I forget what the study was, and you would probably know better than I do off the top as I haven't followed as much baseball the past year and half. The super-elite offensive talent tend to perform, and Juan Soto is up there. It's not impossible that they flame out ... nothing is, with prospects, but so far, there aren't any apparent holes, a la Brandon Wood.

The top end comparisons aren't that far off - I'm too lazy to dig through the numbers right now, but my guess is that the WAR's over the last 2 years for Strasburg/Scherzer/Rendon/Turner vs. Rizzo/Contreras/Bryant/? isn't that far. There is the x-factor of Yu Darvish. All that said, I'm not denying that the Cubs core is better. What that evaluation does leave off is the assumption that somehow the Cubs will maintain it's group, while the Nationals won't add. I mean, there was some chatter that the Nationals may try to keep Daniel Murphy and eventually slide him to 1st base. If his bat holds, that changes the complexion of things. They could very well go out and make a splash, which I expect them to do in regards to SP.
In the end, how good a team is and how ready they are to win in the short term and compete in the long term is likely only a small facet in his decision. Nonetheless, for all the talk about the Phillies and other clubs, I just don't get why people here are overlooking the Nationals ability to keep him around, particularly when factoring in the Lerner's relationship with Boras and Harper's noted affinity for the DC area.
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