The Bryce is Right, Bitch

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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Feb 07, 2019 3:45 pm

It's incredibly easy to talk me into good news re: Harper, but the Cubs being a short term deal favorite makes zero sense. 3 years is the window in which you have enough guaranteed money/arb years to worry about the luxury tax, and a short term deal is almost certainly higher AAV too. If the only reason they're avoiding Harper is because they're worried about his production or luxury tax concerns in years 6 through 10 then everyone with an office at Wrigley is fired.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby biittner77 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:08 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It's incredibly easy to talk me into good news re: Harper, but the Cubs being a short term deal favorite makes zero sense. 3 years is the window in which you have enough guaranteed money/arb years to worry about the luxury tax, and a short term deal is almost certainly higher AAV too. If the only reason they're avoiding Harper is because they're worried about his production or luxury tax concerns in years 6 through 10 then everyone with an office at Wrigley is fired.


I read that to mean that if he has to settle for a short term deal he would prefer to play for the Cubs. It also makes sense if the Cubs don't actually care about the luxury tax which they very likely don't regardless of what they say publicly.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Feb 07, 2019 4:31 pm

Wait, why is it very likely they don’t care about the LT?
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:00 pm

The_Achiever wrote:Saw the new PECOTA projections this morning. Cubs, 82-80, third place.

Bryce is a need, not want.

PECOTA is complete trash. They project Montero to be the 20th best player in MLB this year..... Flowes and Austin barnes are in the top ~7.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby The_Achiever » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:08 pm

I don't have a favorite projector or site, but Fangraphs has us at 88-74.

Basically I think the Cubs should sign Bryce to get us into the 90's heading into the season.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Feb 07, 2019 5:12 pm

The_Achiever wrote:I don't have a favorite projector or site, but Fangraphs has us at 88-74.

Basically I think the Cubs should sign Bryce to get us into the 90's heading into the season.

Yeah for sure, I’d lean towards Fangraphs ones but don’t really care. I think 88-93 wins is a decent range for projections for us. PECOTA seems to put way too much weight on defense and framing. Basically if you are a good framer it loves the player and the team.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Bertz » Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:26 pm

Yeah ZiPS has been mostly broken since Nate Silver left. The issue du jour IMO is that they're overstating the predictive power of their proprietary statistics, as cool as they are.

That being said the overall point still stands that the Cubs are super vulnerable. All five teams in the division are at least as good as the Brewers looked at this time last year, and no team is within probably 5 games of where the Cubs were. And as we plainly saw. even that margin isn't always enough.

Overall though the Cubs clearly have the highest ceiling in the division, and in terms of floors the Cubs and Cards well beyond the three small market teams. So it's pretty hard to not see them as the favorites, even if it's by a modest margin.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Brian » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:15 pm

According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, this is a "staring contest" between agents Scott Boras (Harper) and Dan Lozano (Machado) in which neither side wants to blink first.

"Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, and Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, both are believed to be seeking at least $300 million," Rosenthal wrote. "Neither wants to sign first, knowing once one of the players goes off the board, the other will benefit from gaining the sole attention of the remaining suitors."


FFS, just end this already.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby CubinNY » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:19 pm

Harper's marginal return on wins is not worth the financial investment the Ricketts would have to lay out because, reasons. They are perfectly content with having a contending team that will fill up Wrigley Field and populate their other financial interests surrounding Wrigley. Winning is down the list of importance.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Brian707 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:58 pm

Brian wrote:
According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, this is a "staring contest" between agents Scott Boras (Harper) and Dan Lozano (Machado) in which neither side wants to blink first.




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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby BigSlick » Fri Feb 08, 2019 9:00 pm

I’m going to really hate it if baseball offseason are now: “nothing really happens until spring training, or even later”
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby CubinNY » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:43 pm

I’d guess that the players are pretty pissed about what’s happening. I wish they would also realize this is how most people are treated by their employers. A guy I know who works construction brought in over 2 million dollars throughout contracts the last two years. One of the companies they did work for was so impressed with his work they offered him a job at a much higher pay rate. He didn’t think it was right to take the job. He told his boss about the offer and asked for a modest raise. His boss told him he didn’t deserve a raise. Needless to say he took the new job.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Feb 09, 2019 5:33 pm

CubinNY wrote:I’d guess that the players are pretty pissed about what’s happening. I wish they would also realize this is how most people are treated by their employers. A guy I know who works construction brought in over 2 million dollars throughout contracts the last two years. One othe companies they did work for was so impressed with his work they offered him a job at a much higher pay rate. He didn’t think it was right to take the job. He told his boss about the offer and asked for a modest raise. His boss told him he didn’t deserve a raise. Needless to say he took the new job.


I wish more fans kept this in mind too. You’d swear the average sports fans on the internet was a billionaire with a team of his own if going by the comments and polls
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:48 am



Unless they’re offering him a ton more or he really wants to be in the San Francisco area I just don’t see why it makes sense for him to go there. Of spots for him to go that affects us the least that’s a good spot for him to end up I guess.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby UMFan83 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:26 am

Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1094417322972983296?s=21

Unless they’re offering him a ton more or he really wants to be in the San Francisco area I just don’t see why it makes sense for him to go there. Of spots for him to go that affects us the least that’s a good spot for him to end up I guess.


I think it makes sense for Harpers camp to leak that there is strong mutual interest coming out of their meeting
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Hunter » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:52 am

UMFan83 wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1094417322972983296?s=21

Unless they’re offering him a ton more or he really wants to be in the San Francisco area I just don’t see why it makes sense for him to go there. Of spots for him to go that affects us the least that’s a good spot for him to end up I guess.


I think it makes sense for Harpers camp to leak that there is strong mutual interest coming out of their meeting


It also makes sense for the Giants to leak to try to gain some leverage on rumored OF trades.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Deeg » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:23 am

Apart from the fact that his power numbers would take a hit, I don’t see why SF doesn’t make sense for Harper. Great city (especially if you’re rich), gorgeous park, fairly wealthy club that figures to contend more often than not.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Regular Show » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:26 am

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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:35 am

Deeg wrote:Apart from the fact that his power numbers would take a hit, I don’t see why SF doesn’t make sense for Harper. Great city (especially if you’re rich), gorgeous park, fairly wealthy club that figures to contend more often than not.

His power/counting numbers take a hit for a guy looking to build a HOF career and they’re in a pretty bad spot to compete. Still have a lot of money on old and horsefeathers players locked up, idk. It would have to be for a lot of not baseball reasons for him to want to be there. He isn’t winning anytime soon there and his numbers will suffer the remainder of his prime years.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby stitchface » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:03 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Deeg wrote:Apart from the fact that his power numbers would take a hit, I don’t see why SF doesn’t make sense for Harper. Great city (especially if you’re rich), gorgeous park, fairly wealthy club that figures to contend more often than not.

His power/counting numbers take a hit for a guy looking to build a HOF career and they’re in a pretty bad spot to compete. Still have a lot of money on old and horsefeathers players locked up, idk. It would have to be for a lot of not baseball reasons for him to want to be there. He isn’t winning anytime soon there and his numbers will suffer the remainder of his prime years.



What are the actual numbers for left handed hitters in SF? I don't think its a bad park for lefties - it was designed for Barry after all.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:18 am

stitchface wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Deeg wrote:Apart from the fact that his power numbers would take a hit, I don’t see why SF doesn’t make sense for Harper. Great city (especially if you’re rich), gorgeous park, fairly wealthy club that figures to contend more often than not.

His power/counting numbers take a hit for a guy looking to build a HOF career and they’re in a pretty bad spot to compete. Still have a lot of money on old and horsefeathers players locked up, idk. It would have to be for a lot of not baseball reasons for him to want to be there. He isn’t winning anytime soon there and his numbers will suffer the remainder of his prime years.



What are the actual numbers for left handed hitters in SF? I don't think its a bad park for lefties - it was designed for Barry after all.

The park has been last in HRs all but 3 years since 2010, 2nd to last once, 3rd last once and 11th fewest another year. The park kills power, granted part of that is their roster but the stadium kills power. For lefties it gets deep fast to RF, it is fine dead pull distance wise but the RCF triangle is like 400+. Then there’s LA and SD in the division which are pitcher parks and Arizona isn’t the launching pad it once was now that they have the humidor, iirc, he does get Coors ~10 times a year though.

Two examples, which admittedly could be meaningless but are two LHH who have spent their whole careers there, in their careers Belt is at 70 road HRs and 42 home HRs in only about 100 more road abs. Crawford is at 55 road HRs and 32 home HRs in again only about 100 more road abs.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:23 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
stitchface wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:His power/counting numbers take a hit for a guy looking to build a HOF career and they’re in a pretty bad spot to compete. Still have a lot of money on old and horsefeathers players locked up, idk. It would have to be for a lot of not baseball reasons for him to want to be there. He isn’t winning anytime soon there and his numbers will suffer the remainder of his prime years.



What are the actual numbers for left handed hitters in SF? I don't think its a bad park for lefties - it was designed for Barry after all.

The park has been last in HRs all but 3 years since 2010, 2nd to last once, 3rd last once and 11th fewest another year. The park kills power, granted part of that is their roster but the stadium kills power. For lefties it gets deep fast to RF, it is fine dead pull distance wise but the RCF triangle is like 400+. Then there’s LA and SD in the division which are pitcher parks and Arizona isn’t the launching pad it once was now that they have the humidor, iirc, he does get Coors ~20 times a year though.

Two examples, which admittedly could be meaningless but are two LHH who have spent their whole careers there, in their careers Belt is at 70 road HRs and 42 home HRs in only about 100 more road abs. Crawford is at 55 road HRs and 32 home HRs in again only about 100 more road abs.

Damn MLB making crazy changes to season schedule this late in offseason.
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby Derwood » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:04 pm

When Harper signs for 7/$240M, where can I get injectable forehead heroin at a friendly discount?
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:29 pm

Derwood wrote:When Harper signs for 7/$240M, where can I get injectable forehead heroin at a friendly discount?


So ive never done heroin but

#1 im pretty sure all heroin is injectable
#2 "forehead heroin" doesnt exist any more than arm heroin does
#3 I dunno, maybe ask a friend who is a drug dealer if you are expecting a friendly discount on drugs
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Re: The Bryce is Right, Bitch

Postby big ball chunky time » Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:01 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:
Derwood wrote:When Harper signs for 7/$240M, where can I get injectable forehead heroin at a friendly discount?


So ive never done heroin but

#1 im pretty sure all heroin is injectable
#2 "forehead heroin" doesnt exist any more than arm heroin does
#3 I dunno, maybe ask a friend who is a drug dealer if you are expecting a friendly discount on drugs


Look at this nerd who hasn’t spent two decades on nsbb like us cool dudes
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