Random In-season Musings and Rumors

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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby sneakypower » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:45 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Setting aside actual likelihood of trade and asking prices, who would you give up more to get, Quintana or Stroman?

Both have 4 years of team control. Peripherally they're very similar with the exception of Stroman getting more ground balls. Stroman has better stuff and is younger but he's been less healthy, even if the injury wasn't in the arm. Quintana has better results but will be declining by his last team controlled year. Tough call.

on a semi-related note, i wonder about the future availability of Tyler Chatwood, he of the 2.37 road ERA since 2013

this of course presumes he comes at a much more affordable cost, as he's basically the righty version of Brett Anderson, both for high-GB propensity and shaky health
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:50 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
God I'd really love if Candelario could bring back Sean Reid-Foley. He should be not too far off come 2018, maybe ready to join the team after super 2 in mid July.


First name that popped into my head that wasn't Stroman. Stroman would be suuuuuuch a beeast on this team. As far as pitching prospects go Reid-Foley is quality.

Could we get Stroman without using 1 of Happ or Eloy?


No, but it could be worse even if it's both. Better the farm than the ML roster. I like Eloy plenty but at the end of the day we're still talking an A ball corner outfielder. Sure Stanton comps are fun to read but at Eloy's age Stanton hit 22 HRs in less than 400 PAs with an IsoSLG nearly 67% better than the ML average. Stroman's legitimately excellent and someone I think would be a massive star in this org.
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:54 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Setting aside actual likelihood of trade and asking prices, who would you give up more to get, Quintana or Stroman?

Both have 4 years of team control. Peripherally they're very similar with the exception of Stroman getting more ground balls. Stroman has better stuff and is younger but he's been less healthy, even if the injury wasn't in the arm. Quintana has better results but will be declining by his last team controlled year. Tough call.

Probably Stroman


I lean this way too. Even if you had to use Baez to get him, the remaining infield defense combined with his 60% GB rate is tantalizing.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:00 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Setting aside actual likelihood of trade and asking prices, who would you give up more to get, Quintana or Stroman?

Both have 4 years of team control. Peripherally they're very similar with the exception of Stroman getting more ground balls. Stroman has better stuff and is younger but he's been less healthy, even if the injury wasn't in the arm. Quintana has better results but will be declining by his last team controlled year. Tough call.

Probably Stroman


I lean this way too. Even if you had to use Baez to get him, the remaining infield defense combined with his 60% GB rate is tantalizing.

Yeah I agree. If the asking price between Stroman and Quintana had a decent discrepancy I'd pick whoever cost "cheaper" but all things being equal I'd say Stroman.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:04 pm

I'm not even sure why, maybe the fly balls, but I feel like Quintana to the Cubs would go for the Cubs a lot like Javier Vazquez did for the Yankees.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:29 am

sneakypower wrote:on a semi-related note, i wonder about the future availability of Tyler Chatwood, he of the 2.37 road ERA since 2013

this of course presumes he comes at a much more affordable cost, as he's basically the righty version of Brett Anderson, both for high-GB propensity and shaky health


Chatwood interests me some, too. I was kinda surprised when I saw his name pop up last year in my article about Hendricks. Basically, I had identified that there were very few extreme ground-ball pitchers that were able to get weak contact on balls in the air. These guys were the only ground-ball pitchers that were getting fly balls at high trajectories, and they were also the only ones getting fly balls at low exit velocities. The numbers seemed to indicate, to me, that they were honest FIP-beaters, and they also had lower FIPs than xFIPs. And Chatwood hasn't really done that. The other guys were Carlos Martinez, Tanner Roark, Arrieta, and Hendricks. And they've all been guys with ERAs lower than their FIPs and FIPs lower than their xFIPs. I'd imagine Chatwood would fare well to leave Coors, and also have our infield defense behind him.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby NonProfitCow » Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:10 pm

Rosenthal is reporting that Luis Robert has been declare a FA.

Cardinals have been pretty heavily linked.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Enn Tea » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:14 am

Can we swing Archer/Colome or Gray/Doolittle without giving up Happ? This assumes Gray comes back and looks healthy. He kinda scares me even if he does look healthy, but I like Doolittle a lot and I think we need another lefty in the bullpen. I'm down for giving up Happ in a crazy threeway trade that nets us Archer/Colome/Doolittle.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:34 am

I really want nothing to do with Gray, the injuries lately freak me out.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Hunter » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:35 pm

Yeah, at this point, it is a hard pass on Gray.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:18 pm

I wonder what it would take to get a few months of Masahiro Tanaka? He has the option to opt out of the remaining 3/64 he has on his contract and the Yankees have been very clear that they don't intend to resign him when the time comes. I think he could be a reasonable stop gap for this season while the hole in FA.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:27 pm

Tryptamine wrote:I wonder what it would take to get a few months of Masahiro Tanaka? He has the option to opt out of the remaining 3/64 he has on his contract and the Yankees have been very clear that they don't intend to resign him when the time comes. I think he could be a reasonable stop gap for this season while the hole in FA.

While I like him and really wanted us to get him when he was a FA, doesn't he have a tear in his elbow that could blow at any minute? Maybe it's nothing and can be managed but I swear he was on the verge of TJS last year or the year before.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Liam Neeson » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:32 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I wonder what it would take to get a few months of Masahiro Tanaka? He has the option to opt out of the remaining 3/64 he has on his contract and the Yankees have been very clear that they don't intend to resign him when the time comes. I think he could be a reasonable stop gap for this season while the hole in FA.

While I like him and really wanted us to get him when he was a FA, doesn't he have a tear in his elbow that could blow at any minute? Maybe it's nothing and can be managed but I swear he was on the verge of TJS last year or the year before.


Yes he has the tear. Theo and the front office were in on him when he was posted.

I am really curious what happens with him and his opt out after this year. I've convinced myself at this point that he is a key in swaying Otani.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby David » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:21 pm

Liam Neeson wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:I wonder what it would take to get a few months of Masahiro Tanaka? He has the option to opt out of the remaining 3/64 he has on his contract and the Yankees have been very clear that they don't intend to resign him when the time comes. I think he could be a reasonable stop gap for this season while the hole in FA.

While I like him and really wanted us to get him when he was a FA, doesn't he have a tear in his elbow that could blow at any minute? Maybe it's nothing and can be managed but I swear he was on the verge of TJS last year or the year before.


Yes he has the tear. Theo and the front office were in on him when he was posted.

I am really curious what happens with him and his opt out after this year. I've convinced myself at this point that he is a key in swaying Otani.

Swaying Otani to take 300k?
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Apr 21, 2017 5:48 pm

I think you can make an argument that dollars aren't going to mean too much if Otani comes over this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, the spread between teams isn't that large, the most a team can offer is basically 6 million. That's barely anything compared to the money he'd make in arbitration alone. It wouldn't be a difficult sell to say that Otani is more marketable as a Cub than most other places too, getting to be on a young team at the top of the league in a huge market. That alone probably bridges the 5 million gap, and the Cubs being a bit more generous than average with pre-arb awards(with Bryant as precedent) further puts a dent in it. Other teams like the Dodgers(who also can only offer 300k) and Yankees can make similar arguments, but if the Cubs win a ton of games and maybe another title this year, they'll have the team quality that is hard to argue with.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:03 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I think you can make an argument that dollars aren't going to mean too much if Otani comes over this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, the spread between teams isn't that large, the most a team can offer is basically 6 million. That's barely anything compared to the money he'd make in arbitration alone. It wouldn't be a difficult sell to say that Otani is more marketable as a Cub than most other places too, getting to be on a young team at the top of the league in a huge market. That alone probably bridges the 5 million gap, and the Cubs being a bit more generous than average with pre-arb awards(with Bryant as precedent) further puts a dent in it. Other teams like the Dodgers(who also can only offer 300k) and Yankees can make similar arguments, but if the Cubs win a ton of games and maybe another title this year, they'll have the team quality that is hard to argue with.



Picking hairs a bit, but a team can trade for up to 75% more too. Some teams will be able to offer him 10ish.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Liam Neeson » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:27 pm

David wrote:
Liam Neeson wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:While I like him and really wanted us to get him when he was a FA, doesn't he have a tear in his elbow that could blow at any minute? Maybe it's nothing and can be managed but I swear he was on the verge of TJS last year or the year before.


Yes he has the tear. Theo and the front office were in on him when he was posted.

I am really curious what happens with him and his opt out after this year. I've convinced myself at this point that he is a key in swaying Otani.

Swaying Otani to take 300k?


I really wasn't coming at it from a Cubs point of view. I think Tanaka opts back in at the end of the year and plays a part in a Yankees' sales pitch to Otani.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:40 pm

Tell Otani he'll be the first bench bat and can be a LF sub for all I care, if that swings the meter over to us, it's a net positive.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:59 pm

davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I think you can make an argument that dollars aren't going to mean too much if Otani comes over this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, the spread between teams isn't that large, the most a team can offer is basically 6 million. That's barely anything compared to the money he'd make in arbitration alone. It wouldn't be a difficult sell to say that Otani is more marketable as a Cub than most other places too, getting to be on a young team at the top of the league in a huge market. That alone probably bridges the 5 million gap, and the Cubs being a bit more generous than average with pre-arb awards(with Bryant as precedent) further puts a dent in it. Other teams like the Dodgers(who also can only offer 300k) and Yankees can make similar arguments, but if the Cubs win a ton of games and maybe another title this year, they'll have the team quality that is hard to argue with.



Picking hairs a bit, but a team can trade for up to 75% more too. Some teams will be able to offer him 10ish.


Given how rarely the draft pools have been traded, I'm skeptical that any team is going to trade for more than a few more dollars of their international pool. Especially this first year when everyone will be feeling out that market. But yeah the same point applies even if someone offers him 9-10 million.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:34 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I think you can make an argument that dollars aren't going to mean too much if Otani comes over this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, the spread between teams isn't that large, the most a team can offer is basically 6 million. That's barely anything compared to the money he'd make in arbitration alone. It wouldn't be a difficult sell to say that Otani is more marketable as a Cub than most other places too, getting to be on a young team at the top of the league in a huge market. That alone probably bridges the 5 million gap, and the Cubs being a bit more generous than average with pre-arb awards(with Bryant as precedent) further puts a dent in it. Other teams like the Dodgers(who also can only offer 300k) and Yankees can make similar arguments, but if the Cubs win a ton of games and maybe another title this year, they'll have the team quality that is hard to argue with.


The #1 thing everyone neglects about Otani's situation is that this is not his big payday. Barring disaster he's looking at maybe as few as as two much, much larger deals in the MLs. Player development facilities, personnel, and results are going to be a factor as well - yet another area the Cubs excel in. Everyone keeps going to that initial payment but it's chump change if he is playing the long game - and by all accounts he wants to be a legend.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:35 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I think you can make an argument that dollars aren't going to mean too much if Otani comes over this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, the spread between teams isn't that large, the most a team can offer is basically 6 million. That's barely anything compared to the money he'd make in arbitration alone. It wouldn't be a difficult sell to say that Otani is more marketable as a Cub than most other places too, getting to be on a young team at the top of the league in a huge market. That alone probably bridges the 5 million gap, and the Cubs being a bit more generous than average with pre-arb awards(with Bryant as precedent) further puts a dent in it. Other teams like the Dodgers(who also can only offer 300k) and Yankees can make similar arguments, but if the Cubs win a ton of games and maybe another title this year, they'll have the team quality that is hard to argue with.

Plus there's always money in the banana stand
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:48 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I think you can make an argument that dollars aren't going to mean too much if Otani comes over this year. Unless I'm misunderstanding the rules, the spread between teams isn't that large, the most a team can offer is basically 6 million. That's barely anything compared to the money he'd make in arbitration alone. It wouldn't be a difficult sell to say that Otani is more marketable as a Cub than most other places too, getting to be on a young team at the top of the league in a huge market. That alone probably bridges the 5 million gap, and the Cubs being a bit more generous than average with pre-arb awards(with Bryant as precedent) further puts a dent in it. Other teams like the Dodgers(who also can only offer 300k) and Yankees can make similar arguments, but if the Cubs win a ton of games and maybe another title this year, they'll have the team quality that is hard to argue with.



Picking hairs a bit, but a team can trade for up to 75% more too. Some teams will be able to offer him 10ish.


Given how rarely the draft pools have been traded, I'm skeptical that any team is going to trade for more than a few more dollars of their international pool. Especially this first year when everyone will be feeling out that market. But yeah the same point applies even if someone offers him 9-10 million.


There are teams out there that just don't spend internationally. The new system isn't going to change that. Baseball players marketability may not be what you think it is either. Sure, he may be able to make slightly more in Chicago than in most cities, but as of a year or so ago, NO ONE in MLB was making more than 5 mill a year in endorsements. So, he'd not be making up tons of salary loss that way, in all honesty.

May not matter. He very well may want to play for the best roster in MLB. Money may truly not matter at all.

But, its also possible that historic teams like the Yanks and Red Sox can give him close to 10 mill, a true chance to win, and as much or more endorsement money too.
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby Tim » Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:55 pm

Isn't Boston still under their additional penalties?
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Re: Random In-season Musings and Rumors

Postby davell » Sat Apr 22, 2017 12:11 am

Tim wrote:Isn't Boston still under their additional penalties?


Nah, that's up July 2nd. That said, it'll be very interesting to chart which teams are spending what on the upcoming class. Since all that affects what they can give him too.
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