Starting Pitching candidates

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:48 am

The reason I even brought deGrom up was he obviously is a very good pitcher. Hell, he's been better than Archer(albeit not as healthy and much more of a risk)and much better than Gray.

I was debating whether its worth giving up THAT package for him, because I don't think that package comes even remotely close to landing Archer. I don't think it'd get deGrom either, with the Mets expecting(probably wrongly) to get healthy(lol) and contend again next year.

The reason it was interesting to me is I figure you probably DO have to send Eloy to Oakland for Gray. That's a definitive no for me. Gray isn't good enough. deGrom IS good enough, he's just got the red flags around him(as does Gray) It'd be a huge risk. But, its something I'd have to consider.(again, I doubt the FO would and I really doubt the Mets would)

I've advocated for Gray quite a bit actually. If you can get him for a package led by Cease, probably with 2 of Zagunis, Caratini, or Candelario.....Fine. But, I'm not dealing Eloy, Happ, Javy, or Schwarber in a deal for him.

The reason I'd even consider deGrom though, is because my honest guess is it'd take Eloy, Happ, AND Cease to get Tampa to sell Archer off at this stage. He's healthy, he's really good, and he's on a bargain basement deal. And Tampa can't afford to rebuild, with their attendance problems, so my guess is they'd want an insane package for him.

My inner debate is do you give up THAT much for Archer, take deGrom at that package and the risk that goes with it, or just settle for a much lesser pitcher?

At the deadline, my honest guess is we settle for a much lesser pitcher, probably a rental. I'd LOVE to find another Montgomery type move, I'll probably scan teams tomorrow to see if there's any of those types out there.

But, we're going to need 2 guys in the off season. My guess is one signing and one trade, unless we trade for an unknown cost controlled option at the deadline.

Again, deGrom is really good. The risk is real though. I'd consider a package like THAT for him though, if the price for Archer is as much as I think it will be. I'd take Gray over either, IF he can be had for a Cease led package.

But, since we won the WS last year, adding a Hammel type and hoping for the best in the playoffs is probably the way I'd wind up veering towards, as CW11 said.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby cubsclapp » Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:47 am

Happ would be a no go for me right now whatever the case.

They need him right now (and even if his OPS drops 200 points, he can still help them a lot). Hell he's already 4th among their position players in fWAR. He can play 4 positions (probably 3B and 1B if he had to as well), he switch-hits and you can comfortably use him vs any arm side, and he slots anywhere into the lineup.

We also don't know how good/healthy Zobrist is going to be the rest of the year (hopefully an .800+ OPS bat, but who knows), we don't know anything with Schwarber, Baez is much worse vs right-handed pitching, and Almora is probably a .700 OPS hitter -- and stinks vs righties -- that the metrics so far think is pretty blah in CF.

If we're in this situation still in the offseason, maybe you include Happ in a deal like this. Offer the Rays Eloy/Cease/Candelario/other decent prospect over the next month, but no on Happ (in my opinion).

And if the asking prices are really this insane, consider short-term guys like Marco Estrada, JA Happ, Jason Vargas, and even like Cahill and Richard. If they went that route, they could also look to upgrade the position players and go after rentals like Lorenzo Cain or Cameron Maybin. If the price for Archer, Gray, _ good cost-controlled guy is really that bonkers, add a couple nice rentals to improve this current team and still be able to hang on to Eloy, Happ, and Cease (although someone like Cain may require a prospect like Cease). Then address the cost-controlled starter in the offseason.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Sun Jun 25, 2017 3:31 pm

I've been on the Cahill/Hand wagon for about a month. If Trevor proves healthy I think he's a perfect fit. Tons of grounders and whiffs and in the playoffs he could be our long guy, unless they actually leave Lackey off the PS roster, which I'm not sold they will (pitching better, experienced, loyalty).

I really dont think they wish to deal Eloy or Cease so I'm thinking they will scour that secondary market at the deadline.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby champaignchris » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:02 am

If the Mets are selling and want to balance out their core, trading starting pitching for hitting prospects, is there a guy you go after?

De Grom's worrisome health has been covered. Regardless of how the lat heals, Syndergaard looks like he has a ticking time bomb for a right arm and has demonstrated a less than cooperative attitude towards trainers. Harvey looks washed up. Wheeler missed two seasons and then just got hurt again, and might not be any good. Matz (who I really like) is five (?) years post TJS, just had elbow surgery again in the offseason, and has never pitched more than 140 innings in his professional career. Gsellman and Lugo probably aren't any good.

Is there anyone there you trade a decent prospect for and then feel good about yourself?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:16 am

I'd kill for Syndergaard if he avoids the knife, and he seemingly will. Everyone else on the Mets' staff has been cut open. It doesn't even really matter because anyone the Mets would trade the Cubs is probably shot.

I still can't believe the recent stuff on DeGrom in this thread. He's older than most guys they'll target, lower overall amateur and pro pedigree than they'll likely target, is posting his worst periphs (at 29, entering that 6-7 post-TJ window), has a more serious injury history than they'll probably target, has a longer injury history than they'll probably target, and even at peak reached and topped 150 IP as a SP just once. He's the kind of pop up arm you hope the farm system produces occasionally or find outside the org for extremely cheap. Hes one of the most obvious names to say no to a major trade for. The "he's been better than Archer" line in here was a doozy just on their 2017s.

---

What about Montero on the Mets for the flex role?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:39 pm

The Mets seem like they can just create good pitching prospect after good pitching prospect. Give me Jordan Humphreys please.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:07 pm

Multiple Cubs personnel were at Sonny Gray's last start:
San Francisco Chronicle wrote:Scouting Gray: Among the clubs with multiple executives and scouts at Gray’s start Sunday were the Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners and Braves, while the Red Sox had one scout there. Some non-contenders looking ahead to next year have interest in Gray because he has two more years of team control.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:21 pm

Russell for Gray!
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby David » Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:26 pm

horsefeathering trade for samardzija already
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 27, 2017 3:32 pm

David wrote:horsefeathering trade for samardzija already


I fail to see why the Giants would be interested in trading him.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:16 pm

I'm coming around on Gray a bit, mostly because with only 2+ years instead of 3+ for names like Archer, Stroman, Quintana plus the arm worry you're likely looking at a less extravagant player cost. Especially since Oakland is more likely than average to value guys like Candelario/Caratini/Zagunis, I wonder if they could pull it off with Cease as a headliner and not touching the MLB roster.
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Re: RE: Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:28 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
David wrote:horsefeathering trade for samardzija already


I fail to see why the Giants would be interested in trading him.

Well, FWIW, their GM named only Bum, Posey, and Crawford as their "true untouchables".
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:12 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I'm coming around on Gray a bit, mostly because with only 2+ years instead of 3+ for names like Archer, Stroman, Quintana plus the arm worry you're likely looking at a less extravagant player cost. Especially since Oakland is more likely than average to value guys like Candelario/Caratini/Zagunis, I wonder if they could pull it off with Cease as a headliner and not touching the MLB roster.


Yeah, I've been back on the wagon lately. There's so much more good than bad, and the bad being so recent maybe means you can get a guy who can hang with those guys at a much lower price.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Bote McBoteface » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:15 pm

I want a dominant lefty for the bullpen almost as much as i want a starter. That Duensing/Harper matchup scared me enough last night, it would really scare me if it happened in the playoffs. In the playoffs Montgomery would have been there, but itd be real nice if Montgomery was the number 2 lefty option in the playoff bullpen and Duensing wasnt on the playoff roster.

I think Gray/Doolittle is the best we can do unless we start getting real creative with 3 or 4 team trades.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:52 pm

I just want to say that I'd slaughter an ant farm to land Stroman and Osuna in a mega trade with the Jays. It's such a long shot, but I increasingly believe the Cubs need to go big (Stroman, Archer, Gray, Quintana) for SP or stay home. They're not going to buy one of those former top prospect/post-hype guys like Daniel Norris without giving up a ML while hoping he gets it together in a rush, so I'll have to hold off hopes on that kind of buy.

To clarify, when I stay home I leave the door open for some small trade for a SP like Cobb or JA Happ. It's the same thing to me, basically handing the NL to the Dodgers or Nats in either scenario. It seems so pointless to buy all that time - far and away the rarest resource - with all these young, cheap hitters only to sit back at the TDL in two out three of those precious years so far.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:36 pm

Gray AND Doolittle, with Eloy involved, would make sense in lots of ways. Even though they're aren't many deals with multiple major pieces involved, going to the buyer.....Billy was on the opposite side of a deal like this with us very recently.

We took one elite prospect in return for two starting pitchers. There was McKinney and Straily too, that were lesser pieces, but still valuable. I'll try to compare the deals.....

Sonny Gray has an extra year of control than Shark did. Injury-prone, but probably more upside than what Shark was still considered to have at that stage? I don't know. Cancelling out the injury issues, with the extra year though, I'd say those two were at least in the same general value range.....

Jason Hammel was pitching well, but was a rental. Its hard to compare his value to Doolittle. Hell, its really hard to value Doolittle, by himself. He's got 3 and a half years of control left. 3/16.85 after this season, and 2 of those years are team options even. He was really, really horsefeathering good a few years ago. But 2015 saw him throw just a handful of innings. 2016 saw him throw 60% of a season or so. And now, he's started this season late, but in his handful of innings, he's been dominant.....

So, how do you value him? He's worth more than Hammel. Probably by far, considering good relievers prices.....And he's pitching his ass off right now, so they're selling high on him. Plus, he's got 3 years of control.

So, on that side of the trade, I'd say Gray and Doolittle have a solid amount of value more than Shark and Hammel did. But, with Doolittle, its really hard to gauge, because teams desperate for relief, like Washington, may blow everyone else out of the water, for a guy like him.....

On the prospects side, the headliners would be Russell vs Eloy. Russell was probably a top 5 guy, while Eloy is probably a top 10 type, at this stage. Plus, Addy was a middle of the diamond guy, so even if you valued the difference from 5 to 10 as negligible, I'd say that positional value gives Addy at least a slight edge here in headliners.....

So now, if you're going for equal type of packages.....We want MORE than what Oakland wanted from us a few years ago. And our lead piece is slightly less than what theirs was too.

However, this CAN be made up. McKinney was Oakland's 2nd best prospect and we got him in the Shark deal. Is Cease considered a better prospect than him? I'd say so. Probably enough of a difference between them to make Eloy/Cease as valuable as Addy/McKinney....

Straily was a borderline throw in, but had potential. He had been struggling in the majors, I'd say he was probably valued about like Eddie Butler honestly, when we acquired him. I don't think we'd deal Butler right now, as we still need depth.(we could, but we'd still need to go get more). Alec Mills? Same value as Straily, at that point? Sure, why not? I'll assume his current injury is still not arm related. He came back from his ankle injury for one outing, then got DL'd again.

So, in my mind, Eloy/Cease/Mills is even to Addy/McKinney/Straily.....

The issue now though is quantifying Doolittle's value over Hammel's. Unfortunately, that's hard to do. But, I'll say its a pretty solid amount, because he's pitching his ass off right now and the team control attached.....

Caratini, one of Candelario or Zagunis, and one of Hatch or Alzolay? Too much? I'd typically agree. Get rid of Mills, hes not needed now. But, I think Doolittle on his own is going to fetch quite a package, in this market. And to get the pair, its going to cost a bit extra.....

Kind of goes back to TT asking about trying to find the middle ground on packages like this, getting 2 good players....The Nats could get nutty and offer Robles for Doolittle. It wouldn't shock me. If so, there's no reason for them to deal both to us. They can move Gray to Houston, with Martes or Tucker as the lead piece, unless we do Eloy in a deal for just Gray. And come out with Robles and one of them, which beats Eloy and Cease considerably, at the top end, for us to move grab the pair of those guys.....

So, in my opinion, what it'd TAKE to get Gray and Doolittle in the same deal is Eloy, Cease, Caratini, one of Zagunis or Candelario, and one of Alzolay or Hatch.

I'm not condoning it. Just saying this is what I'd expect them to cost. High price? Sure is. Risky? Sure is.

And if the Nats or some other team is looking for pen help, its very likely they can offer up a guy who's clearly a top 50 guy and ruin any shot of getting both anyway. Because there's not enough difference between Eloy and a Kyle Tucker or Clint Frazier to where it'd make sense for them to trade both to us.

Lots of rambling in this, trying to get to a conclusion.....Its going to really horsefeathering hurt to try to get them both, is the bottom line. And it'll be hard as hell to accomplish too, due to different teams needs.....
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 28, 2017 1:32 am

I actually don't think there's the heart to slaughter innocent ants. I would go as far as maybe drinking soy once? Something crazy like that
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:05 pm

I would argue that Eloy + Cease > Russell + McKinney (or more specifically, Eloy = Russell and Cease > McKinney). Doolittle is a non-trivial addition, and he does have the potential to be a bullpen fixture for 3.5 years, but he's also had repeated injury worries and turns 31 before this season is over. If I'm giving up 1-2 in the system(considering Happ graduated) then I don't think that's what I want in return, even if it's not necessarily an unfair ask. I would very much like to see a decisive move for a SP, but emptying the farm of the guys who have truly high ceilings and getting that much injury risk back in return goes too far for me.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:59 pm

Madson...Cotton...Manaea...Hahn...Graveman...Mengden...the A's aren't short on pitching they could tack onto a Gray deal.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:01 pm

Hmmmmm

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:03 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Hmmmmm




ooooooomg omg omg
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby David » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:03 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Hmmmmm



have the orioles done any weird horsefeathers with him like force him to change his delivery or stop throwing his best pitch?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:08 pm

David wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Hmmmmm



have the orioles done any weird horsefeathers with him like force him to change his delivery or stop throwing his best pitch?

Just looking at his pitch f/x stuff on fangraphs it doesn't seem like he's changed much. His velo is at career averages roughly other than he is throwing his slider about 3 MPH faster than his career average. He's added a curveball sparingly (2% of pitches after never throwing one) and is throwing it at the expense of his splitter it looks like (but he still is throwing the split).
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:08 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Hmmmmm




ooooooomg omg omg
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Thrilho » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:17 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Hmmmmm




ooooooomg omg omg

Yeahhhhh now this something I can get behind. 3.5 years of control left. Off the top, I'd pay that Sonny Gray (non-Eloy) haul for him easy.
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