Starting Pitching candidates

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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:39 pm

I don't think Chatwood is going to throw enough strikes for the front office to bet on him for a 3 year deal or for 8 figures per. Same goes with Chacin. Maybe you get one of them without that restriction, but it's one of the reasons that I do think Cobb is a likely target.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:45 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I don't think Chatwood is going to throw enough strikes for the front office to bet on him for a 3 year deal or for 8 figures per. Same goes with Chacin. Maybe you get one of them without that restriction, but it's one of the reasons that I do think Cobb is a likely target.

Fair enough, I agree there are certainly red flags but there are also some things I really like that he's a top target of mine if we go the FA route for that 2nd or 3rd starter.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:46 pm

Tim wrote:
ScrubMD wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Probably just Stroman but as I’ve made clear I’d rather go a different route and keep Russell.


I hate the idea of trading Russell or Schwarber who seem very likely to increase their value this season.

Happ and Baez seem about as high as their value is going to get. I’d like to trade one of them (preferably Happ since I’m not as attached to him) for a Gausman/Teheran type.

Keep Russell as part of the core and trade Schwarber after his 40hr/950ops season to make room for Harper.

Can we please have an off season without people thinking of Teheran as an attractive target?

I don't really like him but a Happ for him or Folty + Inciarte intrigues me a bit.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:51 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I don't think Chatwood is going to throw enough strikes for the front office to bet on him for a 3 year deal or for 8 figures per. Same goes with Chacin. Maybe you get one of them without that restriction, but it's one of the reasons that I do think Cobb is a likely target.

Fair enough, I agree there are certainly red flags but there are also some things I really like that he's a top target of mine if we go the FA route for that 2nd or 3rd starter.


I don't even necessarily disagree, but I do think that Theo means business about limiting the walks. Not only the stuff about the bullpen, but the guys he's targeted for the rotation(Anderson, Hammel, Feldman, Jaxon, Lester), the way he's treated Montgomery who has similar issues with being effectively wild, all of that points to wanting a lot of strikes to go with your stuff if you're gonna make 30 starts for the Cubs.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Tim » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:10 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tim wrote:
ScrubMD wrote:
I hate the idea of trading Russell or Schwarber who seem very likely to increase their value this season.

Happ and Baez seem about as high as their value is going to get. I’d like to trade one of them (preferably Happ since I’m not as attached to him) for a Gausman/Teheran type.

Keep Russell as part of the core and trade Schwarber after his 40hr/950ops season to make room for Harper.

Can we please have an off season without people thinking of Teheran as an attractive target?

I don't really like him but a Happ for him or Folty + Inciarte intrigues me a bit.

He had an FIP of 4.96 this year. The whole "consistently beats his FIP" thing doesn't really work when that's the baseline.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:16 pm

No one who wants Teheran thinks a FIP near 5 is his new baseline. His career line is a FIP of 4 that he has consistently beaten his FIP by .35 or more every year. Interestingly enough, there's at least a slight reason to think his drop off was related to pitching half his games in Sun Trust park instead of Turner field. That can be a positive or negative thing depending on your outlook, but worth noting if the counterpoint about his 2016 being the new norm is related to the juiced ball.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby bd811 » Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:49 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tim wrote:
ScrubMD wrote:
I hate the idea of trading Russell or Schwarber who seem very likely to increase their value this season.

Happ and Baez seem about as high as their value is going to get. I’d like to trade one of them (preferably Happ since I’m not as attached to him) for a Gausman/Teheran type.

Keep Russell as part of the core and trade Schwarber after his 40hr/950ops season to make room for Harper.

Can we please have an off season without people thinking of Teheran as an attractive target?

I don't really like him but a Happ for him or Folty + Inciarte intrigues me a bit.


I’ve been a big fan of Enciarte as an option for the top of the order for a few years. Good (although not stellar) OBP, strong contact skills, and a positive on the base paths to go along with good fielding. Super team-friendly contract too. Not sure the Braves are inclined to deal him though.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:32 am

Looking at the A's roster, since they seem to always be open to trades, Daniel Mengden looks intriguing for a Monty type under the radar acquisition. He will be 25 around the time Spring Training starts, looks like he has a nice mix of pitches FB (92 MP), CT, CB, CH (throws the FB about 55% then the latter 3 about 15% of the time each). He had the 8th best wCB/C of pitchers who threw at least 40 IP. I know Manea has been mentioned as a higher level add but this guy could/should be had for non-Happ (maybe some combo of Caritni, Zagunis, LaStella even, Zas or other minor dudes) or other ML guys like Manea would maybe cost.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby CubinNY » Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:58 pm

Who doesn’t think Arietta is going to sign with the Cardinals?
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:00 am

The Cardinals can sign whoever they want; it simply doesn't matter. Dead Cardinal Hell has already opened up and swallowed them.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:03 am

CubinNY wrote:Who doesn’t think Arietta is going to sign with the Cardinals?

I think Angels, Rangers or Mariners for him
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby davell » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:29 am

I think Jake signs in February, after a perceived contender loses a front line guy.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:37 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
CubinNY wrote:Who doesn’t think Arietta is going to sign with the Cardinals?

I think Angels, Rangers or Mariners for him


I would love if Arietta signed with the Angels. I always kind of root for them for Trout's sake, so it would be nice to see if Jake could help them out.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:41 pm

Fangraphs top 50 FAs and salary predictions is out, Cameron has Arrieta at 4/96 and their crowd source median is 5/110 and average is 4.6/102.5. If his market is the 4/96 Cameron guessed I'd be all over that if we are going to spend any sort of real money on FA pitchers and not go cheap/through trades for it.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby David » Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:48 pm

I just don't really think Jake has much left (as far as being an above average starting pitcher), even with him sort of reinventing himself and having success late last year.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:03 pm

David wrote:I just don't really think Jake has much left (as far as being an above average starting pitcher), even with him sort of reinventing himself and having success late last year.

I get the worry and 2015 god mode is never coming back, might get 2-5 start stretches close to it but never for long periods. The reinvention last year kind of encourages me that he can sustain a decent level of success during his next contract, I think he learned how to be more of a pitcher than just rely on pure stuff (which yes it was forced since his stuff diminished) and his stuff is still pretty damn good and he showed he can adapt and learn to be a smarter pitcher to me. I’m not jumping to give him more than 4 years or more than 110 million but this is the second guess I’ve seen now putting him at 4 years and around $100 million, I like that deal for him and would be fine with it.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Bertz » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:33 pm

I love Jake and wish him the best but I'd avoid him like the plague in FA. His peripherals were pretty mediocre even in his strong second half. He's done enough for long enough that we can comfortably say he's a FIP beater, but Matt Cain and many others have shown that's a skill with an expiration date. Maybe that date is not til like 2020 but there's just as good of a chance it's next year.

Honestly i don't want Wade back either, as he's a very similar case except worse since you don't have durability to fall back on.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:53 pm

CubinNY wrote:Who doesn’t think Arietta is going to sign with the Cardinals?


I wouldn't be stunned if there's some truth to the Dodgers talk. It'll probably come down to years for Friedman.

As a darkhorse, I wouldn't rule out the Nationals. I expect them to do something big ... with the way their contracts are staggered, they could probably fit something big. Gio's off the books in a year, and Arrieta as a 3rd starter is fine.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Nov 18, 2017 7:58 am

Law wrote this about Hellickson in his "FA Bargain" article, as a 1 year buy low guy for our 2nd or 3rd SP addition to get reunited with Hickey to try and re-find the changeup he intrigues me....

Hellickson lost his changeup in 2017, turning him from a league-average-or-so starter into a replacement-level one, which really killed the Phillies at the trade deadline.

But Hellickson's changeup was one of the best in baseball before then; from 2011 to 2016, it ranked as the 10th-most-valuable changeup in MLB by FanGraphs' pitch values, his only above-average pitch over that span. With it, he's at least a good fourth starter, and without it, he's probably going to post another 5.00-plus ERA. I'd be willing to bet on him rediscovering the pitch, given the upside.
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