davell wrote:toonsterwu wrote:Cubswin11 wrote:Almora would seem to make sense there, they need a CF and think they have said they want to get better on defense. Don’t know if he’s enough but at least a likely starting point. Secondly, does Tyler Beede have any value anymore? He could be a nice second/third SP added this offseason.
It really comes down to how much they want to move his contract, and if they are rebuilding. If they are in rebuild mode, I could actually see starting a package with Happ as possibly a decent starting point (not suggesting Happ alone, as Shark would likely get a nice return for them). The only problem, in hypothetical scenarios, with offering OF's is that they are loaded with OF's that are close (Slater - sorta their version of Happ/Reynolds/Duggar/Shaw - should be at first). Almora might hold more intrigue in that regards, as he's clearly better CF than almost all their close guys, with the exception of maybe Duggar.
You think Shark brings back MORE than just Happ? I don't think theres any way we'd deal Happ straight up for Shark, much less give up more. He's making almost 20 mill a year. He's solid, but he's not an upper echelon pitcher either. If he's available, I can't imagine him bringing back a huge return, unless its to a team that needs his contract paid down heavily, which we don't. I don't think we'd even deal Almora for him. A deal starting with Alzolay, with another guy or two from our top 10(even with our system being down) should be plenty to get Shark. If not, then no thanks. Move on to the next.
I'm not suggesting we make a trade for Shark. I'm not ruling it out either, but in general, I think the package for Shark would take yes ... something more than Happ. Maybe Happ straight up. If you are asking if I would personally move Happ for Samardzija this winter, I would say I would definitely consider it (obviously, everything depends on market). That said, there's moves now, in our window, that the Cubs would not do otherwise, and yes, when considering this environment for the Cubs, I would probably consider it. If you are asking if I think the Cubs might consider it ... I think they would. I do. The window is now, and with their moves, they've shown they are going all-in on the window now.
Yes, I know the reasons not to, but pitching still costs, and consistent, productive, innings-eating pitching still costs. Jeff Samardzija only has 3 years left, which will likely be a nice thing compared to some FA's possibly getting 4 years. He's been reliable - 6 straight years of 200+ IP's. Yes, he's not a TOR starter, but an innings-eating middle-of-the-rotation arm is still very valuable ... and arguably, in this environment, with the usage of the pens ... perhaps even more valuable that you can turn to a starter to give you reliable innings every 5 days. Command is still strong, velocity is still there.
There isn't really a good comparable trade to look at from recent winters. We can toss comparable trades around, and there will be plus and minuses to each argument (I could say, argue that Drew Smyly netted fairly decent return, but the flip side is that Ian Happ is a far more intriguing talent than anything acquired in that trade. Dan Straily looks to have netted a great package for the Reds ... but it was fair to at least question if Luis Castillo was that good when the trade was made.
*As an aside, I'm not sure I buy the Giants moving Shark (with the usual caveat of a trade that is too good to pass up would probably not be passed up), because I think they may feel like they don't need to rebuild. I think they may feel like with Bumgarner back, some tinkering in the rotation, and a bat or two, plus some luck, and they are probably in the mix of it again. If they go that route, I think they are at the end of that rope, but it could make some sense for them.