Starting Pitching candidates

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:28 pm

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Agreed with davell on the timing of a big pitching move. Disagree on that group of pitchers being a toss up. There’s a clear hierarchy there. Archer and Stroman are outright studs with the track records and arm to prove it. Nola has the skills, pedigree, and the clean arm to hang but hasn’t achieved yet like those other two having missed time to injury in the majors. The other two are noise in the conversation because neither offers as much 2018 certainty as the others and 2018 is an extremely big deal.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:28 pm

Levine mentioned Shark as a potential trade again yesterday. Probably more musings than actual smoke but I am curious what they would be asking for in trade. They were awful this year and have a lot of holes in the lineup (they basically have half an outfield) and the pitching staff.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:42 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:Levine mentioned Shark as a potential trade again yesterday. Probably more musings than actual smoke but I am curious what they would be asking for in trade. They were awful this year and have a lot of holes in the lineup (they basically have half an outfield) and the pitching staff.

Almora would seem to make sense there, they need a CF and think they have said they want to get better on defense. Don’t know if he’s enough but at least a likely starting point. Secondly, does Tyler Beede have any value anymore? He could be a nice second/third SP added this offseason.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:55 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Post Count Padder wrote:Levine mentioned Shark as a potential trade again yesterday. Probably more musings than actual smoke but I am curious what they would be asking for in trade. They were awful this year and have a lot of holes in the lineup (they basically have half an outfield) and the pitching staff.

Almora would seem to make sense there, they need a CF and think they have said they want to get better on defense. Don’t know if he’s enough but at least a likely starting point. Secondly, does Tyler Beede have any value anymore? He could be a nice second/third SP added this offseason.


It really comes down to how much they want to move his contract, and if they are rebuilding. If they are in rebuild mode, I could actually see starting a package with Happ as possibly a decent starting point (not suggesting Happ alone, as Shark would likely get a nice return for them). The only problem, in hypothetical scenarios, with offering OF's is that they are loaded with OF's that are close (Slater - sorta their version of Happ/Reynolds/Duggar/Shaw - should be at first). Almora might hold more intrigue in that regards, as he's clearly better CF than almost all their close guys, with the exception of maybe Duggar.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:57 pm

Where is this whole Nola idea coming from (relative to people that have written about it)? I'm baffled - I don't see anyway the Phillies deal a cost-controlled top young starter unless it is just such a monstrous return they can't say no.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:00 pm

toonsterwu wrote:Where is this whole Nola idea coming from (relative to people that have written about it)? I'm baffled - I don't see anyway the Phillies deal a cost-controlled top young starter unless it is just such a monstrous return they can't say no.

I feel like it's just writers spitballing regarding bad teams + controllable starters. Only way I see Phillies moving him is if it's in a deal for Trout. So, no never gonna happen. He had an incredible year and is their ace for the next several years while they get back into the playoffs.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:23 pm

toonsterwu wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Post Count Padder wrote:Levine mentioned Shark as a potential trade again yesterday. Probably more musings than actual smoke but I am curious what they would be asking for in trade. They were awful this year and have a lot of holes in the lineup (they basically have half an outfield) and the pitching staff.

Almora would seem to make sense there, they need a CF and think they have said they want to get better on defense. Don’t know if he’s enough but at least a likely starting point. Secondly, does Tyler Beede have any value anymore? He could be a nice second/third SP added this offseason.


It really comes down to how much they want to move his contract, and if they are rebuilding. If they are in rebuild mode, I could actually see starting a package with Happ as possibly a decent starting point (not suggesting Happ alone, as Shark would likely get a nice return for them). The only problem, in hypothetical scenarios, with offering OF's is that they are loaded with OF's that are close (Slater - sorta their version of Happ/Reynolds/Duggar/Shaw - should be at first). Almora might hold more intrigue in that regards, as he's clearly better CF than almost all their close guys, with the exception of maybe Duggar.



You think Shark brings back MORE than just Happ? I don't think theres any way we'd deal Happ straight up for Shark, much less give up more. He's making almost 20 mill a year. He's solid, but he's not an upper echelon pitcher either. If he's available, I can't imagine him bringing back a huge return, unless its to a team that needs his contract paid down heavily, which we don't. I don't think we'd even deal Almora for him. A deal starting with Alzolay, with another guy or two from our top 10(even with our system being down) should be plenty to get Shark. If not, then no thanks. Move on to the next.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 01, 2017 6:34 pm

I still really really like Beede.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:00 pm

I like Shark just fine, but I don't know if I really like him any better than several FA options that are likely to have the same/less cost.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I like Shark just fine, but I don't know if I really like him any better than several FA options that are likely to have the same/less cost.

Agree. I just meant if we targeted him I could see Almora being a piece of interest, not that I’d want to do that. I would rather just sign Cobb, Lynn or even bring back Jake (if the market doesn’t happen for a 5+ year 100+ mil deal) for 3-4 year deals with similar or less aav to Samardzija who all have pretty good chances of being as good or better than Samardzija over the next 3-4 years. If we are giving up one of our major league pieces I want a SP with more upside than Samardzija given there’s similar alternatives available for just cash (and maybe a draft pick).
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby champaignchris » Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:54 pm

I’m not enthralled with Shark. At this point we know what to expect with him. 200 innings, league average ERA/FIP, 2 WAR. He’s a younger, less charming old John Lackey without the playoff clutch thing. (To the extent such a thing exists.)

Trading Almora or Happ for him at 3 years/$59 million versus signing Lynn or Cobb at 4 years/$80 million is a no brainer to go the free agent route. Unless Lynn and Cobb are going to fetch way more than I think they will, trading for Shark only makes sense if Heyward is included in the deal. Add Almora/Happ and get a bullpen arm. Add whatever money and prospects to whichever side to balance out.

If we’re going after a failed Giants closer, I’d rather Dyson over Melancon, contracts, age and etc. taken into account. But I think I’d ask about Hunter Strickland first.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:02 pm

champaignchris wrote:I’m not enthralled with Shark. At this point we know what to expect with him. 200 innings, league average ERA/FIP, 2 WAR. He’s a younger, less charming old John Lackey


I would bet this front office is looking for exactly something like that. There is major value in pitcher that can pitch decently for a full major league season.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:06 pm

Also, we need two starters, unless the plan is to let Tseng, Butler and Monty compete for the last spot after signing one of Lynn/Cobb/Chatwood. That doesn't seem ideal.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:43 pm

I think its extremely likely we get Cobb and trade for a young guy with control too. I also expect Tyson Ross or some other reclamation long shot and probably another Butler type move too. Theo said Monty is going to be in the same role as this year.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:48 pm

davell wrote:I think its extremely likely we get Cobb and trade for a young guy with control too. I also expect Tyson Ross or some other reclamation long shot and probably another Butler type move too. Theo said Monty is going to be in the same role as this year.


yeah, at this point I would put decent money on a FA like Cobb, a trade for a starter that doesn't have a huge salary, a decent commitment to a closer(this could be trading for Hand, signing Davis, etc), and a short term commitment to at least one other reliever. If they luck into Otani they can be more aggressive on some other fronts(closer, OF stalwart).
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:54 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I still really really like Beede.

Not that the Giants are likely overly inclined to trade him but if he were to be traded, what would it take? I remember liking him going back to the draft he was in.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:01 pm

I've got no idea on where they go from a bullpen standpoint, but my GUESS is they're not going to be in on Davis, unless its short term. Based on Theo's comments about finding guys that don't walk people.....I'll say we get Addison Reed. Maybe 3/30 or so? I've seen him projected at up to 4/32. I kind of suspect he'll get a bit more than that personally. And I think they'll get Neshek at 2/18 or so. Then add a lefty on a one year deal. Duensing maybe, maybe Boone Logan, maybe Zach Duke....
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:47 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:I still really really like Beede.

Not that the Giants are likely overly inclined to trade him but if he were to be traded, what would it take? I remember liking him going back to the draft he was in.


Maybe Almora? Don’t really see why the Giants would send him the Cubs’ way but I think there’s a first division starter in there.

—-

Epstein also seemed to suggest the walks were at least partially due to a pitch selection and even a philosophical issue. I like pairing Morrow and McGee or Logan signings through FA. Morrow’s a FA I’d really like the Cubs to land. I like Neshek too as he offers a different look and remains effective.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:58 pm

davell wrote:I've got no idea on where they go from a bullpen standpoint, but my GUESS is they're not going to be in on Davis, unless its short term. Based on Theo's comments about finding guys that don't walk people.....I'll say we get Addison Reed. Maybe 3/30 or so? I've seen him projected at up to 4/32. I kind of suspect he'll get a bit more than that personally. And I think they'll get Neshek at 2/18 or so. Then add a lefty on a one year deal. Duensing maybe, maybe Boone Logan, maybe Zach Duke....


I have to think Davis is an option if only because he's the most surefire FA option(along with the validation that the FO traded for him and he had a great year). The last 18 months or so have illustrated the value they place in having a lockdown closer at the end of the pen, and while there are paths to that outcome that don't include huge outlays, I don't think they're going to gamble on depth surfacing a great option. The stakes are too high for this group to leave that to chance if they can help it. They've already traded for that guy once and they could again(I mentioned Hand, but there's other options of varying quality like Robertson, Herrera, Colome, maybe Britton/Brach) so Davis isn't even the most likely option, but I have to think he's very seriously being considered.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:13 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:I've got no idea on where they go from a bullpen standpoint, but my GUESS is they're not going to be in on Davis, unless its short term. Based on Theo's comments about finding guys that don't walk people.....I'll say we get Addison Reed. Maybe 3/30 or so? I've seen him projected at up to 4/32. I kind of suspect he'll get a bit more than that personally. And I think they'll get Neshek at 2/18 or so. Then add a lefty on a one year deal. Duensing maybe, maybe Boone Logan, maybe Zach Duke....


I have to think Davis is an option if only because he's the most surefire FA option(along with the validation that the FO traded for him and he had a great year). The last 18 months or so have illustrated the value they place in having a lockdown closer at the end of the pen, and while there are paths to that outcome that don't include huge outlays, I don't think they're going to gamble on depth surfacing a great option. The stakes are too high for this group to leave that to chance if they can help it. They've already traded for that guy once and they could again(I mentioned Hand, but there's other options of varying quality like Robertson, Herrera, Colome, maybe Britton/Brach) so Davis isn't even the most likely option, but I have to think he's very seriously being considered.

I agree you can’t risk it by trying to find next years Morrow, Swarzak, etc. because you’re going to fail more times than not going that route and we can’t do that in the window we are in. I’m very much in the camp of bringing Davis back. Having a known commodity at the back end is huge and he’s the clear best FA option, imo. Barring some ridiculous contract (more than 4 years and 70 mil) I’m all for bringing him back.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Bertz » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:20 pm

Any interest in Matt Harvey as our second SP acquisition? He was legit terrible this year, not just a victim of BABIP nonsense, but the velocity is still quite good and he'd be another year further out from his surgeries. Strikes me as a good change of scenery guy, especially entering his walk year.

The Mets have needs basically everywhere but 1B, SS, and whichever outfield corner they stick Yoenis, so it should be easy to match up with them.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:53 pm

Bertz wrote:Any interest in Matt Harvey as our second SP acquisition? He was legit terrible this year, not just a victim of BABIP nonsense, but the velocity is still quite good and he'd be another year further out from his surgeries. Strikes me as a good change of scenery guy, especially entering his walk year.

The Mets have needs basically everywhere but 1B, SS, and whichever outfield corner they stick Yoenis, so it should be easy to match up with them.

I want little to no part of any pitcher from that god forsaken pitching staff. Especially one who had that thoracic outlet surgery. He’d have to be essentially free and even then we better have backup options and he shouldn’t be counted on.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:42 pm

I've thought about Harvey, but I wonder if the Mets would give him away? If not, I'd definitely want no part of him. Its sad to say, based on what he was, but I think we'll get 2 guys considerably better than him this off season.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Enn Tea » Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:09 am

Id take Harvey for free but id take almost anything that used to be good for free. Id say no if i had ever heard of the prospect we were trading away.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:14 am

There's going to be a disconnect between what Harvey should be valued at and what the Mets will want for him given his name reputation. I can't see him being traded this offseason.
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