Starting Pitching candidates

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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby David » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:57 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:A report out of Japan seems to be indicating in a brief blurb that the Cubs have emerged as the leader on Darvish.

https://www.nikkansports.com/baseball/m ... 00763.html


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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:58 pm

Nah
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:18 pm

We just got a $50 million windfall that didn’t sound overly expected, have LT space this year and are printing money. I’m all for getting him.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby davell » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:29 pm

I'd be shocked. If we did this, it'd be hard to explain Chatwood and Smyly on the books next year. The LT isn't an issue this year. But, staying under 245 next year, if you've got Darvish and Harper certainly could be.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:34 pm

davell wrote:I'd be shocked. If we did this, it'd be hard to explain Chatwood and Smyly on the books next year. The LT isn't an issue this year. But, staying under 245 next year, if you've got Darvish and Harper certainly could be.


You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:34 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:We just got a $50 million windfall that didn’t sound overly expected, have LT space this year and are printing money. I’m all for getting him.

Every team got a $50m windfall and everybody knew it was coming when they sold the property.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby davell » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:38 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:I'd be shocked. If we did this, it'd be hard to explain Chatwood and Smyly on the books next year. The LT isn't an issue this year. But, staying under 245 next year, if you've got Darvish and Harper certainly could be.


You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence.


I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Perd » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:42 pm

Looking through that article, I get the impression that I can’t read Japanese.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:44 pm

davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:I'd be shocked. If we did this, it'd be hard to explain Chatwood and Smyly on the books next year. The LT isn't an issue this year. But, staying under 245 next year, if you've got Darvish and Harper certainly could be.


You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence.


I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.


Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to.

As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:44 pm

They could also be leaking this to help with Archer/Salazar talks.

I certainly wouldn't be against a Darvish signing. He's a hell of a pitcher. I hope the contract doesn't get that ridiculous, of course. But he makes this rotation damn solid if he's healthy. Essentially, they could sign a backup catcher afterwards and call it an offseason. I'd be pretty happy keeping all our MLB assets as depth.

Once we got to the playoffs, the rotation would have Darvish, Quintana, Lester & Hendricks. Chatwood & Smyly would be free to join the pen to add depth there. If you feel that we've got enough bullpen to win the division, then the playoff pen should be plenty deep when adding those guys.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Agony and Ivy » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:46 pm

Perd wrote:Looking through that article, I get the impression that I can’t read Japanese.


Just try harder at it and you'll get it. It's kinda like those magic eye posters.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:46 pm

davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:I'd be shocked. If we did this, it'd be hard to explain Chatwood and Smyly on the books next year. The LT isn't an issue this year. But, staying under 245 next year, if you've got Darvish and Harper certainly could be.


You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence.


I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.

I really think they're working hard to add another guy in the playoff rotation ahead of Chatwood.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby davell » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:50 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
You aren't going to limit yourself to injury rehabs and rentals for this last rotation spot simply because you guaranteed Smyly 5 million next year. You probably couldn't offer Harper a 40 million AAV, but I'm skeptical his market goes that high, and even that isn't so difficult with a move of any consequence.


I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.


Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to.

As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though.


Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:56 pm

davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:
I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.


Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to.

As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though.


Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too.

I'm really not sure I see the problem. Given the arms we're talking about, the odds of everyone being healthy a full year are pretty low in the first place. It would also be easy enough to put Smyly in the pen or the Monty role and have Monty move to full-time reliever or trade him. There are a ton of options if we have the guys in house.

We are in the middle of our (fairly lengthy) window. We should maximize our chances and worry about fitting everyone in a role next year.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby David » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:57 pm

Tim wrote:They could also be leaking this to help with Archer/Salazar talks.

I certainly wouldn't be against a Darvish signing. He's a hell of a pitcher. I hope the contract doesn't get that ridiculous, of course. But he makes this rotation damn solid if he's healthy. Essentially, they could sign a backup catcher afterwards and call it an offseason. I'd be pretty happy keeping all our MLB assets as depth.

Once we got to the playoffs, the rotation would have Darvish, Quintana, Lester & Hendricks. Chatwood & Smyly would be free to join the pen to add depth there. If you feel that we've got enough bullpen to win the division, then the playoff pen should be plenty deep when adding those guys.


Using the Japanese media for that?

Why wouldn't Theo just use Gammons as his shill as he usually does?
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Tim » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:59 pm

David wrote:
Tim wrote:They could also be leaking this to help with Archer/Salazar talks.

I certainly wouldn't be against a Darvish signing. He's a hell of a pitcher. I hope the contract doesn't get that ridiculous, of course. But he makes this rotation damn solid if he's healthy. Essentially, they could sign a backup catcher afterwards and call it an offseason. I'd be pretty happy keeping all our MLB assets as depth.

Once we got to the playoffs, the rotation would have Darvish, Quintana, Lester & Hendricks. Chatwood & Smyly would be free to join the pen to add depth there. If you feel that we've got enough bullpen to win the division, then the playoff pen should be plenty deep when adding those guys.


Using the Japanese media for that?

Why wouldn't Theo just use Gammons as his shill as he usually does?

Yeah, true.

Most likely they are just pursuing every path they can to strengthen the team.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:00 pm

davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:
I think it'll go over 40 personally. But, its not just Smyly and his 5, its Chatwood and his 12.7 too. To me, it'd seem more realistic to have found a Corbin or something like that, on a smaller trade, to fill that 5th spot and save the added money for next year.


Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to.

As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though.


Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too.


I can appreciate the desire for maximum flexibility, but they're going to try to win the world series next year. I don't know how better to say it than they aren't going to tie their hands behind their back this year for theoretical flexibility next year. There's probably a point in a hypothetical Darvish contract where they cross a threshold where they have to consider next year more strongly, but Darvish is the highest dollar option and only a proxy for 'multi-year SP' for the point of this argument.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby davell » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:18 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
davell wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Smyly's contract is no greater than that of a glorified Duensing. They aren't going to tie their hand behind their back for this year's rotation just because he might look like a rotation candidate next year in his first full season back from TJS. I'm not saying that means Darvish, but there's no reason to shy away from a multi-year solution. Any of the starters could fall on their face or have their arms explode, or most likely, Smyly doesn't look like a guy worth guaranteeing anything but relief innings to.

As far as Harper goes, I'm thinking the bite of the luxury tax plus a plethora of top of market options keep him from going that high. I could be wrong though.


Its more Chatwood than Smyly, for me. Again, they COULD make it work, but the Chatwood move seems odd to me, if Darvish is the other addition. I do think Corbin would have been a better tag team partner, in this scenario. Of course, Corbin is still in Arizona currently too.


I can appreciate the desire for maximum flexibility, but they're going to try to win the world series next year. I don't know how better to say it than they aren't going to tie their hands behind their back this year for theoretical flexibility next year. There's probably a point in a hypothetical Darvish contract where they cross a threshold where they have to consider next year more strongly, but Darvish is the highest dollar option and only a proxy for 'multi-year SP' for the point of this argument.


I can buy this. In the end, I doubt any of this matters. I don't see the Cubs getting Darvish anyway.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby David » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:56 pm

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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:01 am

Don’t think we’d be in on Moore, even for a salary dump?

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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:25 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Don’t think we’d be in on Moore, even for a salary dump?



It does have the Maddon-Hickey connection.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Named After Maddux » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:32 am

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Don’t think we’d be in on Moore, even for a salary dump?



It does have the Maddon-Hickey connection.


Guess he’s going to the Rangers. I wouldn’t have minded it as a BOR flier, but good luck with him in the Ballpark of Arlington.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:05 am

Did I read it correctly that Texas is SENDING cash to SF? So they are taking on the contract and giving them more money?
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby Agony and Ivy » Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:10 am

Named After Maddux wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Don’t think we’d be in on Moore, even for a salary dump?



It does have the Maddon-Hickey connection.


Guess he’s going to the Rangers. I wouldn’t have minded it as a BOR flier, but good luck with him in the Ballpark of Arlington.


Matt Moore is awful so he'll fit right in with the rest of the Rangers rotation, thank god we weren't in on that trap door.
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Re: Starting Pitching candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:35 am

A bit curious who the Giants are clearing salary space for.

___

As for our rotation, the thing to be said is that this market has moved fairly slowly. I don't think the organization would be that upset if they ended up tossing out fliers for that 5th spot, but I do think they are gunning for something better. Problem is, this market, particularly the trade market, hasn't really developed yet. In some respects, it may be waiting for Darvish to fall. Once Darvish goes, then the trade market may loosen up, as some teams may look at the long term deals necessary for Cobb/Lynn and decided to step back.
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