Starting Pitching candidates

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon May 15, 2017 2:00 pm

Derwood wrote:If Greinke was available for 4/100, we won't be the only team vying for him


Even at 4/100 there probably aren't a ton of teams that are going to be super excited to bid on paying Greinke 100 million for his age 34-47 seasons. Given how the season has progressed thus far, I'd say the Cubs and Yankees are the two frontrunners, and there's good reason for there to be very few other teams interested/willing to get him. Greinke also has a 15 team no-trade and given his quirkiness I could see some big city names on that list.

It's also worth noting that Greinke's deal has significant deferrals, from Cot's:

- 6 years/$206.5M (2016-21)
- $18M signing bonus (paid in $3M installments each 5/31, 2016-21) 16:$31M, 17:$31M, 18:$31M, 19:$31.5M, 20:$32M, 21:$32M
- total of $62.5M in salary is deferred ($10M each in 2016-18, $10.5M in 2019, $11M each in 2020-21), to be paid in five installments of $12.5M each 11/1, 2022-26
- under MLB calculation, deferrals reduce the present-day value of the contract to $193,849,298
- assignment bonus: $2M if traded
- limited no-trade protection: may block trades to 15 clubs

So it could be a matter of just telling Arizona to worry about the deferred stuff and having his new team take on the money to be paid out on time.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby UK » Mon May 15, 2017 5:37 pm

It's frustrating that two pitchers I'd want the Cubs to pursue the most (Quintana/Cole) won't likely be on the table because of baseball etiquette.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Duke Silver » Mon May 15, 2017 5:44 pm

Does Greinke's velocity loss worry anyone, or is that just something we're immune to now?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon May 15, 2017 6:13 pm

Duke Silver wrote:Does Greinke's velocity loss worry anyone, or is that just something we're immune to now?


I'm extremely skeptical of how true 2017 velocity loss is for pitchers who are pitching just as well(better, in Greinke's case) as they were before the Statcast/Trackman migration. Greinke specifically has been a guy whose velocity has ticked up with warmer weather in previous seasons too. Here's a crappy home-made illustration of Greinke's first 8 starts the last 3 years:

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby UK » Mon May 15, 2017 6:14 pm

Duke Silver wrote:Does Greinke's velocity loss worry anyone, or is that just something we're immune to now?


It is concerning, I would not be opposed to him but he has a lower floor than I what I feels fits their need of a TOR guy which that lack of velo hurts Greinke.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Mon May 15, 2017 7:03 pm

Nm
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon May 15, 2017 9:09 pm

Duke Silver wrote:Does Greinke's velocity loss worry anyone, or is that just something we're immune to now?


Ask again in July/August when velocities peak around the league, but I'm not really worried unless his arm is hurt.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby biittner77 » Tue May 16, 2017 3:57 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Duke Silver wrote:Does Greinke's velocity loss worry anyone, or is that just something we're immune to now?


I'm extremely skeptical of how true 2017 velocity loss is for pitchers who are pitching just as well(better, in Greinke's case) as they were before the Statcast/Trackman migration. Greinke specifically has been a guy whose velocity has ticked up with warmer weather in previous seasons too. Here's a crappy home-made illustration of Greinke's first 8 starts the last 3 years:

Image


The knock on Greinke used to be that he wasn't any good in the post season. Small sample but pitching for LA his post season results have been a lot better than his 2 years in Milwaukee. Coupled with his slow starts, perhaps he's not a good cold weather pitcher. Or the sample is too small to really prove anything.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Thu May 18, 2017 8:11 am

I don't believe he's been mentioned but something I'm keeping an eye out on are the Nationals. With Erick Fedde looking like he could jump to the bigs this year, plus their desperate need for pen help and the high price that the White Sox have placed on Robertson, I do wonder if there's some sort of match that can be made with us trading pen depth for someone like Joe Ross. Of course, there are those that feel Joe Ross is destined for the pen long term, but if Fedde's ready and the rotation's stable in front, with capable stopgaps in guys like Cole/Voth ... I wonder.

To be honest, if we're looking for a rental, feels like there's quite likely to be a way to make something work with the Dodgers that wouldn't be too troubling.

In the deep recesses of my mind ... I wonder if the Rockies may shop some of their pitching depth if they are able to hang in the race. That said, it's hard to see how we might match up with their needs. With the Nationals, it's easy - desperate for pen help, Fedde coming up. WIth the Rockies, they are bound to let some of their bats (namely, Story and Gonzalez) get some time to get going.

This is a totally different tack than the intent of the question, but for all the talk about Candelario lacking the talent to headline a deal to nab a top arm ... I wonder if he could nab an intriguing younger arm in the lower levels if a team had an injury that necessitated a need for a 3rd baseman, and wanted more than a stopgap option. Of course, a lot of dominoes would have to fall into place, and the Cubs would probably look for bigger fish first. Say .. an injury happened to Castellanos of the Tigers. I wonder if they would consider something like Candelario for a Burrows led package, or even Manning, and we'd go fishing for rentals for this year, adding depth to our future. Or if something happened to Chase Headley and they didn't want to rush Gleyber, and the Yankees were still in it, I wonder if we could pry some sort of Chance Adams or Justus Sheffield?

At the end of the day, with the way the system's set up, barring a Greinke type move that eats money, I'm more inclined to think they may move for a stopgap this year and worry about the future in the winter.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby cubsclapp » Thu May 18, 2017 11:02 am

I don't see the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals doing much meaningful business with each other in the near future.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Thu May 18, 2017 11:22 am

cubsclapp wrote:I don't see the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals doing much meaningful business with each other in the near future.


This. You're just not going to potentially make your biggest threats better.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Thu May 18, 2017 12:47 pm

See, I would challenge both of you on that notion.

This isn't to say that I think either of those ideas would happen.

That said, certainly, Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer haven't shied away from a deal if they felt it benefited their club. I mean, one only has to look at the Nomar trade they made with the Cubs in 04 - Minnesota, IIRC, was a prime challenger in the AL that year. Andrew Friedman hasn't shied away from deals with potential competitors - he dealt Shields and 5 years of Wade Davis away to get Wil Myers initially, with the Royals coming off a good season, before flipping Myers in a trade for Souza Jr. (and Jake Bauers, amongst others). Mike Rizzo has never been shy on pulling the trade on any deal, no matter how it looks.

Granted, yes, most of this happens in the offseason, but there's no indication that any of these guys would shy away if they liked it for their team (after all, Rizzo pulled an Adam Eaton deal this offseason that, while I liked it (granted, no one can predict injury), plenty of people bashed).

In this case, my point on the two options would be this:

a) Nationals - There's desperate pen need, with high pen costs. There's SP depth that they could potentially turn to. They might not be able to wait until the deadline (and Victor Robles has gotten off to a poor start, so it's debatable if they could trade for whatever top end pen option frees up). If Koda Glover and others can't hold the fort, it's not hard for me to imagine them making a small move or two for solid pen arms, the type of guys we might be able to peddle. To be honest, I think their pen will slowly sort itself out, at least, enough so they won't be pressured to make a move.

b) Dodgers - There's pitching depth with Alex Wood emerging (again) to go with Kershaw/Hill/Maeda). It's not hard to imagine they might want to cut costs and consider moving Ryu (and McCarthy has, IIRC, been shopped repeatedly along with ... crap, whose the name I'm forgetting ... he's rehabbing right now ... dangit, who is it ... ). Now, more than likely, they'd find a team more desperate for SP help that is willing to step up, but if not, with short term commitments on some of those arms (off the top, I think McCarthy and Ryu are only signed through 2018), it's not a bad fit for us.

Of the two, I actually think the Dodgers are more likely than the Nationals, as Mike Rizzo is probably apt to try and make a big splash compared to Andrew Friedman, IMO, if he went after a deal, and the Dodgers are overloaded (this is assuming guys stay healthy and pitch well).
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Fri May 19, 2017 5:59 am

Toonster, I think teams have gotten much more hesitant recently to deal to true competition. Same with dealing inside the division now. It happens, but its rare.

And in these two cases, I'd look at it like this.....I'm sure the Cubs would like Ross. Hoyer and McLeod drafted him. But, I think the Nats are looking at him as a reliever themselves currently. And if that doesn't work, I'm pretty sure many other teams have the same type of relievers we do, to offer the Nats for him and they'd feel more comfortable dealing him to a team that he has much less of a chance of coming back to haunt them......

I guess Kazmir is the guy you're forgetting on the Dodgers. Yeah, they may part with him, McCarthy, or maybe even Ryu to ANYONE. They need to trim some payroll to get under the LT next year. In this case, why would we help them do that? None of those 3 are remotely special. All are injury-prone too. My guess is if we are just looking for a depth type addition, we can find one without helping them get out from underneath the LT. I'm sure Theo would like to see them have to make a tougher decision than that, when it comes to their future roster.

Not to mention, in the end, I think we've got our sites set higher than that type of acquisition for a starter.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat May 20, 2017 9:01 am

I'd much prefer Berrios struggle on the Twins than do what he did Thursday. He's on the short list of longer term SPs it would be nice to see the Cubs land, many if not all boxes checked. Please cut the horsefeathers and pitch worse.

Nice to see Daniel Norris scufflIng a little bit. Maybe Detroit thinks there's like a last hurrah for this group and he can land them a needed bat.

Sonny Gray looked good the other day against a really tough lineup to make miss. His 94th pitch was a 93 MPH fastball for a whiff and the breaking ball was back to being dirty. I don't mind Gray as a trade target still. Plus the A's might have pitching depth to add.

Stroman can hit a HR too? Wtf please get this guy on this roster during this window, please.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tryptamine » Sun May 21, 2017 4:22 am

I'd be thrilled if they could find a way to land any of Kolby Allard,Brent Honeywell, Reynaldo Lopez, Cal Quantill,Mike Soroka etc. I mean one of Mitchell White,Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez has to be available right? The Dodgers have a dozen SP as is.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun May 21, 2017 4:42 am

Tryptamine wrote:I'd be thrilled if they could find a way to land any of Kolby Allard,Brent Honeywell, Reynaldo Lopez, Cal Quantill,Mike Soroka etc. I mean one of Mitchell White,Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez has to be available right? The Dodgers have a dozen SP as is.


I've been wondering about one of that Snell/Honeywell duo in Tampa. The Rays were at their best, like pretty much everyone else ever, when they had a bunch of quality or better young position players playing everyday. Cubs have that, both of those guys more or less check out especially Honeywell.

If I could pick one arm in the minors it would be Triston McKenzie. I'd probably do something wild like eat a half gallon of cannoli ice cream over the span of a week to see the Cubs land him somehow. Practically speaking it should really be Honeywell, who is about ready for the majors this year and as close to spotless, but McKenzie is something else if he manages to stays healthy.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Sun May 21, 2017 5:43 am

Tryptamine wrote:I'd be thrilled if they could find a way to land any of Kolby Allard,Brent Honeywell, Reynaldo Lopez, Cal Quantill,Mike Soroka etc. I mean one of Mitchell White,Walker Buehler or Yadier Alvarez has to be available right? The Dodgers have a dozen SP as is.


Depending on what type of pitcher we target at the deadline, if Candelario isn't involved in THAT deal, I'd love to move him to the Braves, for any number of guys. I might even take a quantity approach, if they'd be up for it.

The Dodgers are expecting Buehler up as a reliever this year. And after spending 32 mill on Alvarez, I doubt they'd move him. At any rate, if they move any of there young pitching, it'd be for immediate help, which we don't have to send them. Plus, I've got a feeling Theo and Friedman(even if they weren't our biggest threat) would probably find it much easier to deal with basically ANYONE else.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Sun May 21, 2017 6:24 am

Honeywell is my favorite target easily.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun May 21, 2017 7:14 am

I'd love to get a well-regarded upper minor league pitching prospect too but I just don't see the Cubs matching up for that type of trade when they're World Series contenders.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun May 21, 2017 4:23 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:I'd love to get a well-regarded upper minor league pitching prospect too but I just don't see the Cubs matching up for that type of trade when they're World Series contenders.


Yeah lol, this whole page is ridiculous.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed May 24, 2017 1:53 am

I tend to think that the Cubs may end up looking in the stopgap/rental bin more than many people are thinking. The main thing is, we really don't have the chips to make that big trade (and leaving aside, as UK noted above, baseball etiquette would likely suggest that Cole/Quintana would not be dealt to us). I mean, sure we can talk about packages we can put together (something like Javy/Eloy) to nab an elite arm, but

a) I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard
b) Even then, it's not impossible to think of teams that may be able to match or top that, depending on perspective

On a secondary note, I think the deeper pen will lead them to consider playing for capable innings.

If there is ceiling, it's likely to be a Jake Arrieta type situation - a guy that needs a change of scenery. Of course, reality is , many guys that fall into that category are done, and Arrieta was a very unique situation. I mean, I'm not sure how gung-ho I'd be about going after, say, Matt Harvey, despite the pedigree.

Whatever quality arm gets put on the market is likely to cause a feeding frenzy.

Who knows, maybe they can make wine out of water, or whatever the saying is that's slipping my mind right now.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 24, 2017 2:03 am

The main thing is, we really don't have the chips to make that big trade


They absolutely do
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby rawaction » Wed May 24, 2017 2:14 am

toonsterwu wrote:I tend to think that the Cubs may end up looking in the stopgap/rental bin more than many people are thinking. The main thing is, we really don't have the chips to make that big trade (and leaving aside, as UK noted above, baseball etiquette would likely suggest that Cole/Quintana would not be dealt to us). I mean, sure we can talk about packages we can put together (something like Javy/Eloy) to nab an elite arm, but

a) I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard
b) Even then, it's not impossible to think of teams that may be able to match or top that, depending on perspective

On a secondary note, I think the deeper pen will lead them to consider playing for capable innings.

If there is ceiling, it's likely to be a Jake Arrieta type situation - a guy that needs a change of scenery. Of course, reality is , many guys that fall into that category are done, and Arrieta was a very unique situation. I mean, I'm not sure how gung-ho I'd be about going after, say, Matt Harvey, despite the pedigree.

Whatever quality arm gets put on the market is likely to cause a feeding frenzy.

Who knows, maybe they can make wine out of water, or whatever the saying is that's slipping my mind right now.


Yeah, more important than who is available in a trade is who the Cubs are willing to give up in a trade. Despite having too many players for the 7 non-catching positions, I don't see the Cubs trading any of the guys that may be considered "expendable" by some standards. Javy isn't going anywhere. Happ was potentially a trade candidate and looks like he's going to be a part of this team. Almora probably isn't going anywhere as the Cubs love his defense and potential. Maybe in the offseason you think about trading one of these guys for pitching, but I think they are all too valuable in the current and/or the long-term to trade in a deadline deal, where prices can be inflated.

I think the Cubs go after the best arm that guys like Candelario, Zastryzny, Zagunis, and the like can get them. Even if you're thinking a trade like the Chapman trade from last year, I don't think the Cubs are as willing to give up Eloy as they were about giving up Torres. I mean anything is possible, but I don't see it as likely.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 24, 2017 2:16 am

Personally, I think we don't go totally into the deep end at the deadline. If only because I doubt those guys get moved. Gray is the guy I think we may go after.

Buuuuuut, I definitely think we CAN go into the deep end.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tim » Wed May 24, 2017 2:18 am

I'm really hoping Cease can be the centerpiece to a big trade.
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