Starting Pitching candidates

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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed May 24, 2017 2:21 am

If Arrieta doesn't look much better in the next month, then I think they're going to be pretty motivated to add a starter of significance. It's a lot easier to play the efficiency game and only poke around the market when you have 3 starters having good to great seasons. Right now half their playoff games would be started by big question marks so the marginal benefit of adding a very good starter is even greater, and that's before we get into the fact that they're going to need 3 starters for next year anyway so they might as well snag one of them if they're buying at the deadline.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Wed May 24, 2017 2:35 am

I think we'll do our damnedest to get a guy early. I think Zagunis, Caratini, and Candelario are all kind of tailor-made for Oakland. The question is what's it going to take as a lead piece? If a quantity package of that group and Cease(or Clifton, if Billy likes him) can get it done, I'm sure we'd jump.

I've debated with a buddy about Gray. Just don't know what Billy thinks about him. Is he scared and will take what he can get, thinking this still may be the highest selling point?

I go back to the Harden trade and wonder. Gray has an extra year of control and Harden had been hurt more too. But, it wouldn't shock me if other teams are scared of giving up major pieces for him too. So, maybe he's a guy we can entice Billy with, by our AAA group and a top 100ish pitching prospect?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Duke Silver » Wed May 24, 2017 3:17 am

I'll take one more Jon Lester, please.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Wed May 24, 2017 3:24 am

Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed May 24, 2017 3:47 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?


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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tryptamine » Wed May 24, 2017 4:11 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?


Absolutely, the peripherals are amazing and his back to using the pitch selection that gave him success before.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tryptamine » Wed May 24, 2017 4:15 am

I wouldn't mind renting Liriano and letting him go at the end of the year. Then When FA comes, screw giving Darvish 200M and Cueto doesn't look like he'll opt out. I'll take 2 of Cobb/Pineda/Lynn and call it a day.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed May 24, 2017 3:38 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
The main thing is, we really don't have the chips to make that big trade


They absolutely do


A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it.

Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed May 24, 2017 3:40 pm

davell wrote:Personally, I think we don't go totally into the deep end at the deadline. If only because I doubt those guys get moved. Gray is the guy I think we may go after.

Buuuuuut, I definitely think we CAN go into the deep end.


Okay, maybe I should've phrased it differently. Yes, we can go into the deep end, but can we win it? It's tough to imagine, with so many teams with deep farm systems competitive, that we can, unless they happen to really love our guys for some reason.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed May 24, 2017 3:42 pm

Tim wrote:I'm really hoping Cease can be the centerpiece to a big trade.


He could potentially, but I'm not sure if I want him to. Only way you move him is if it's in a package for a relatively young starter, and even then, at some point, you have to gamble on developing your own arms. Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't move Cease ... just that it'll come down to the Cubs own situation and cost.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Wed May 24, 2017 3:45 pm

davell wrote:I think we'll do our damnedest to get a guy early. I think Zagunis, Caratini, and Candelario are all kind of tailor-made for Oakland. The question is what's it going to take as a lead piece? If a quantity package of that group and Cease(or Clifton, if Billy likes him) can get it done, I'm sure we'd jump.

I've debated with a buddy about Gray. Just don't know what Billy thinks about him. Is he scared and will take what he can get, thinking this still may be the highest selling point?

I go back to the Harden trade and wonder. Gray has an extra year of control and Harden had been hurt more too. But, it wouldn't shock me if other teams are scared of giving up major pieces for him too. So, maybe he's a guy we can entice Billy with, by our AAA group and a top 100ish pitching prospect?


Leaving aside the question of what Gray is right now (I think he's more in that nice mid-rotation arm group, but seems like you are acknowledging that as well based on a previous post), I'm not sure those three necessarily are tailor-made for the A's. They've always emphasized power with positional assets, due to their difficulty in buying it, and an increasing focus on defense. I think Candelario fits ... not sure about Zagunis, and Caratini is somewhat in the middle for my thought process right now. The issue with Candelario is they have Matt Chapman, and while Chapman's hit tool is debatable, his glove his superb and he has far better power than Candelario.

That said, based on recent history, I could see Beane/Forst perhaps willing to gamble on lower level upside a bit to complete a deal, particularly if he's thinking 2-3 years down the line.

____

I'm not really convinced the Cubs move Cease unless it's in the absolute perfect deal, for a young starter who is somewhat cost-controlled. Hoyer has noted before how the ideal is having some young, high ceiling arms come through, and Epstein has always noted an affinity for power arms, but that they couldn't go that route early in the rebuild. With the young core in place, I find it hard to envision scenarios where they would move their most promising ace-level arm (and I say this as a huge Oscar de la Cruz fan, but he has a ways to go to get into that category).
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tim » Wed May 24, 2017 4:19 pm

Cease is high reward, but he's also very high risk. If he can be viewed as a centerpiece by another team, then we should get much more certain value for him. I obviously would only include any of our high end prospects in the right deals, but I'd much rather part with Cease than someone like Happ or Eloy.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed May 24, 2017 4:44 pm

toonsterwu wrote:A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it.

Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.


This is a very different point from the Cubs not being able to put together a package at all. Of course there will be competition, but the vast majority of better systems are with bad teams so we're dealing with not even a handful. From there even fewer will have the motivation to actually make a big trade, whereas the Cubs are losing a TOR pitcher + at least another starter this offseason. From there if the Cubs were to offer a Baez or Almora with Jimenez I would imagine there is no team matching that up top. That's a cheap, young MLer a selling/bad team can slide right into their lineups plus a top prospect with whatever else.

----

There's zero shot at Cease being the center of a trade for a SP, but that's fine.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Thed Hoyerstein » Wed May 24, 2017 7:04 pm

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?


Poor Tommy would never be able to leave AAA
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Little Slide Rooter » Wed May 24, 2017 7:58 pm

Is a Vargas/Cain package realistic?
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Bull » Wed May 24, 2017 9:56 pm

Thed Hoyerstein wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?


Poor Tommy would never be able to leave AAA


Bravo.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby bd811 » Wed May 24, 2017 10:23 pm

Thed Hoyerstein wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?


Poor Tommy would never be able to leave AAA


beautiful
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Thu May 25, 2017 3:04 am

Tim wrote:Cease is high reward, but he's also very high risk. If he can be viewed as a centerpiece by another team, then we should get much more certain value for him. I obviously would only include any of our high end prospects in the right deals, but I'd much rather part with Cease than someone like Happ or Eloy.


My thinking is sort of down the middle right now. At this juncture in the team's development, we have to develop some arms at some point. It's simply hard to continually buy (or trade for) arms, and as risky as arm development is, you have to roll the dice at some point on some guys. This is the right point, with our young core in place, to allow for a chance for some pitcher development.

Again, not saying i wouldn't move Cease in a package for at all, but there's very few trades I would even remotely consider moving him right now. It'd basically have to be a relatively top young arm, entering or at the start of his prime, and still cost-controlled.

Anyhow, reason I say I'm in the middle, Eloy's in a level by himself, particularly with his hot start. I'd part with Happ over Cease, though. I like Happ, don't love him, think he can be a quality starter but not sure if he's really made the significant jumps from last year that his early run so far has suggested. Actually, you want to talk about a guy that feels like he's tailor made for Oakland - Happ feels like it if they move him back to the corner OF. They've never really deviated from buying cost-controlled power.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby toonsterwu » Thu May 25, 2017 3:29 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it.

Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.


This is a very different point from the Cubs not being able to put together a package at all. Of course there will be competition, but the vast majority of better systems are with bad teams so we're dealing with not even a handful. From there even fewer will have the motivation to actually make a big trade, whereas the Cubs are losing a TOR pitcher + at least another starter this offseason. From there if the Cubs were to offer a Baez or Almora with Jimenez I would imagine there is no team matching that up top. That's a cheap, young MLer a selling/bad team can slide right into their lineups plus a top prospect with whatever else.

----

There's zero shot at Cease being the center of a trade for a SP, but that's fine.


Just speaking hypothetically because I have some time on my hand right now, but I can think of a handful of teams that might be able to compete close enough with some sort of Almora/Baez and JImenez package up top, and have depth pull it out. It'd come down to what teams are looking for.
Actually, I really don't see the Cubs moving Almora at all. Baez maybe, but I think they like Almora too much and he's "their guy" after all (not that I think being their guy would influence things if they liked a deal).

Astros - To my own surprise, Derek Fisher has been better than I thought, and he's basically ready for a look. If a team's looking for arm talent in return, and the Astros go shopping for a starter, the ability to toss in a Francis Martes (still intriguing despite his command struggles so far) or the guy I like better, David Paulino, would be a factor. Sure, Baez/Jimenez is "better" on some generalized value assessment, but a possible starting corner OF and some intriguing, good ceiling, high level arms is close enough.

Red Sox - Dombrowski not making a big trade would shock. I don't think they should move him, and if they did, I think it'd be for pitching, but Rafael Devers is looking really excellent and closer to being ready than I thought. Pair him with say, Sam Travis, and that's a nice power combination for some small market team.

Indians - I really don't expect the Indians to go after pitching, but if they did, the best backstop in the minors (IMO) in Mejia (prefer him to Kelly) and someone like Triston McKenzie ... that'd be a tantalizing package, although it would be a total win now move thinning out the system.

Brewers - if they manage to stick around, they have the system to pull of a big trade easily.

Yankees - There seems to be some rumor-mongering that they would consider moving Clint Frazier in a deal, and with Gleyber in the system, Jorge Mateo could be shopped, and there's quality arms.

Cardinals - If they really opted to shop for an arm, being able to dangle Carson Kelly in a trade means they could mix and match with the rest of the system.

Yes, Baez/Eloy sounds great, and if it's just a two man deal, it'd be a tough one to crack but there are teams that can come close enough to match and it would come down to what the selling team prefers/was looking for.

_____
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu May 25, 2017 8:25 am

If that's the competition then I'm even more confident.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Tedward » Thu May 25, 2017 2:08 pm

Ok, I'll throw a new name out there that hasn't been mentioned yet in the thread. The New York Mets are a dumpster fire right now. Their direction for ROS is a bit murky, but I wonder if Alderson will sell at the trade deadline. If so, I'd inquire about what it would take to get ...
Jacob deGrom. He'd be quite expensive due to the remaining team control, but I'd at least inquire about his availability.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby davell » Thu May 25, 2017 2:28 pm

toonsterwu wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:A lot of these elite arm, big trades requires two top level prospects to ship out, and much as I have said I like the system's depth this year moreso than past years, there are plenty of teams with more quality depth than us. Like I noted, yes, you can piece together, say, Javier Baez, Eloy Jimenez and others and come up with a very good package of realistic pieces the Cubs may move, but beyond the fact that I'm not sure the Cubs are going to dip that hard, you can also find competitive packages in other systems, and it becomes an issue of perspective. If the Cubs don't move someone from the MLB roster, it becomes much harder to piece together a deal. Still doable, something like Eloy and Happ and more, but that's not that big a deal that you couldn't envision some team stepping up to match/beat it.

Again, only talking about the elite arms of the market that would constitute a big trade.


This is a very different point from the Cubs not being able to put together a package at all. Of course there will be competition, but the vast majority of better systems are with bad teams so we're dealing with not even a handful. From there even fewer will have the motivation to actually make a big trade, whereas the Cubs are losing a TOR pitcher + at least another starter this offseason. From there if the Cubs were to offer a Baez or Almora with Jimenez I would imagine there is no team matching that up top. That's a cheap, young MLer a selling/bad team can slide right into their lineups plus a top prospect with whatever else.

----

There's zero shot at Cease being the center of a trade for a SP, but that's fine.


Just speaking hypothetically because I have some time on my hand right now, but I can think of a handful of teams that might be able to compete close enough with some sort of Almora/Baez and JImenez package up top, and have depth pull it out. It'd come down to what teams are looking for.
Actually, I really don't see the Cubs moving Almora at all. Baez maybe, but I think they like Almora too much and he's "their guy" after all (not that I think being their guy would influence things if they liked a deal).

Astros - To my own surprise, Derek Fisher has been better than I thought, and he's basically ready for a look. If a team's looking for arm talent in return, and the Astros go shopping for a starter, the ability to toss in a Francis Martes (still intriguing despite his command struggles so far) or the guy I like better, David Paulino, would be a factor. Sure, Baez/Jimenez is "better" on some generalized value assessment, but a possible starting corner OF and some intriguing, good ceiling, high level arms is close enough.

Red Sox - Dombrowski not making a big trade would shock. I don't think they should move him, and if they did, I think it'd be for pitching, but Rafael Devers is looking really excellent and closer to being ready than I thought. Pair him with say, Sam Travis, and that's a nice power combination for some small market team.

Indians - I really don't expect the Indians to go after pitching, but if they did, the best backstop in the minors (IMO) in Mejia (prefer him to Kelly) and someone like Triston McKenzie ... that'd be a tantalizing package, although it would be a total win now move thinning out the system.

Brewers - if they manage to stick around, they have the system to pull of a big trade easily.

Yankees - There seems to be some rumor-mongering that they would consider moving Clint Frazier in a deal, and with Gleyber in the system, Jorge Mateo could be shopped, and there's quality arms.

Cardinals - If they really opted to shop for an arm, being able to dangle Carson Kelly in a trade means they could mix and match with the rest of the system.

Yes, Baez/Eloy sounds great, and if it's just a two man deal, it'd be a tough one to crack but there are teams that can come close enough to match and it would come down to what the selling team prefers/was looking for.

_____


I really don't see us moving Javy, because of the D and the still untapped upside hitting too. Been into that numerous times though and some will disagree.

Either way, those packages literally don't come close to competing with Javy/Eloy. And we have the Jeimers, Zagunises, and Caratinis of the world to bump up the total value of a package considerably. If we decide we WANT a guy, we'll get him. No doubt in my mind, to be honest.

Eloy as a lead piece is as valuable or more so than anyone else's
Javy/Happ/Schwarber is MORE valuable than anyone else's 2nd piece
3rd/4th pieces of Caratini, Zagunis, Candelario, Clifton are just as valuable or more than what other teams are likely to send as their 3rd/4th types

I still doubt we go "all in" for that type personally. But if we want to, we can and will grab one. No doubt in my mind.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu May 25, 2017 2:37 pm

The Brewers are not going to empty their system for a SP, and if Carson Kelly is the selling point for a TOR starter, then the Cubs have no shortage of guys to counter with.

The Red Sox have pieces but Devers also is like a week from being their starting 3B. If the starter is in the AL East anyway(and a disproportionate number of targets are) then the Red Sox and Yankees are pretty unlikely too.

That doesn't mean that the Cubs will be able to leverage some seller into giving away a real good SP, but "I'm not sure if the Cubs have the pieces" is not a serious argument.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu May 25, 2017 2:49 pm

Tedward wrote:Ok, I'll throw a new name out there that hasn't been mentioned yet in the thread. The New York Mets are a dumpster fire right now. Their direction for ROS is a bit murky, but I wonder if Alderson will sell at the trade deadline. If so, I'd inquire about what it would take to get ...
Jacob deGrom. He'd be quite expensive due to the remaining team control, but I'd at least inquire about his availability.

I have no want for that dirty, injury riddled hippie. Especially for the cost.
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Re: The Starting Pitching Trade Candidates

Postby Post Count Padder » Thu May 25, 2017 4:12 pm

Thed Hoyerstein wrote:
We Got The Whole 9 wrote:Would Shark interest anybody if he became available?


Poor Tommy would never be able to leave AAA

=D>

Shut it down.
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