Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:41 am

doublebubble wrote:this trade is one month away from being the worst trade in Cubs history.

Eloy's HOF induction is a month away, huh? Man time flies
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Duke Silver » Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:40 am

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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby cubsclapp » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:14 am

doublebubble wrote:this trade is one month away from being the worst trade in Cubs history.


Hyperbole much?

I feel like people are generally underestimating how much Eloy will have to hit to be highly valuable. He’s absolutely capable of it because he’s a monster and a special hitting talent, but he plays a position everyone hits. Corner players that hit a lot aren’t difficult to find.

But it’s concerning that he hasn’t shown a willingness to walk, which is a skill all these great hitters you hear him compared to do. This is something he can improve, obviously, but usually hitters are pretty close to what they’ve been in that department. His walk numbers are pretty much identical to Javy Baez’s in the minors (literally identical to Javy’s last full AAA stint at 6.7%), for example.

And there’s his body. He’s already a horse. Usually this doesn’t age well for athleticism. Jason Heyward is the rare exception. So it’s quite possible his entire value will come from hitting the ball out of the park and a high average. And he should do these things well, but you have to do them *really* well to be a 3+ WAR kind of player, especially if we’re talking doing it on an annual basis.

It’s just a difficult path.

Jose Quintana has been super blah this year (and has been dealing with shoulder fatigue), but odds are he’s closer to the 3.5+ fWAR pitcher he was the previous 5 years than the pitcher he’s been this year too.

If you want a for-sure crappy Cubs-White Sox trade, it’s Jon Garland for Matt Karchner. The Quintana trade was the right move in the Cubs’ position. It may end up looking bad in the end, but a lot would have to happen for it to end up looking brutal.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:39 am

God we're really in denial about attrition rates on starting pitchers, aren't we?
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby cubsclapp » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:40 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:God we're really in denial about attrition rates on starting pitchers, aren't we?


Quintana is coming off a season with a career-best K rate, had a career-best velocity after joining the Cubs last year, etc. Everything about his peripherals still looked great. His FIP is currently exactly 1 run above his career rate and much higher than any season. Pitchers break at any age, and frequently start declining at this age. That's especially more likely if a pitcher has thrown 200 innings in five straight years (as Quintana has if we include the playoffs last year). The fact that he's been dealing with shoulder fatigue this year would suggest the workload is catching up to him... or that he's just going through what pitchers go through. And the fact his walks are way up is also concerning, as command is crucial to his game.

But odds are that for these remaining 2.5 years, he's closer to the guy he's been over his career than the 4.12 ERA/4.61 FIP/10.7 BB% guy he's been so far this season. Could he keep being mediocre and/or get hurt? Absolutely. But that could still end up being more valuable than the prospects traded away end up being too, for all we know. I would've bet on Jorge Soler as a hitter over Eloy Jimenez and he's been worth under 2-WAR for his career.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:59 pm

Eloy is going to be a monster and we will all rue the day he was sent away
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:26 pm

We sign Harper and put him in RF and keep Schwarber in LF and I don't really worry too much about Eloy... Im more worried about Cease ending up a legit #1 through his rookie deal. That would suck, but its baseball. Hopefully we win a couple rings with Quintana contributing and then it ends up being a win-win for both teams.

But to say that this will be the worst trade in franchise history at this point is horsefeathering ridiculous.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Derwood » Wed Aug 08, 2018 2:31 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:We sign Harper and put him in RF and keep Schwarber in LF and I don't really worry too much about Eloy... Im more worried about Cease ending up a legit #1 through his rookie deal. That would suck, but its baseball. Hopefully we win a couple rings with Quintana contributing and then it ends up being a win-win for both teams.

But to say that this will be the worst trade in franchise history at this point is horsefeathering ridiculous.


Eloy is laying waste to AAA, though. Cease is doing great, but AA. I'm curious what their timeline with either is right now
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:04 pm

if quintana has actually fallen off at all and it's not just a one-year blip, we probably "lose" the trade bc Eloy and Cease are a fair bit to provide lots of value through their rookie deals. But overall it's probably fine and a trade you have to make if you're the cubs in the middle of your window.

but if quintana is this guy the next couple years rather than the guy we saw last year, it's gonna really suck to watch
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:17 pm

Derwood wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:We sign Harper and put him in RF and keep Schwarber in LF and I don't really worry too much about Eloy... Im more worried about Cease ending up a legit #1 through his rookie deal. That would suck, but its baseball. Hopefully we win a couple rings with Quintana contributing and then it ends up being a win-win for both teams.

But to say that this will be the worst trade in franchise history at this point is horsefeathering ridiculous.


Eloy is laying waste to AAA, though.


Bryce Harper, though.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby David » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:22 pm

Eloy is jorge 2.0, now with fewer walks

(no but seriously i'm just saying if he's going to be some great player he's gonna have to hit a hell of a lot to make up for probably being a bad defender at a not so valuable position)
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Bertz » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:35 pm

I'm not too worried about losing Eloy. Even with him destroying AAA it's doubtful that he's much more than Schwarber. Maybe we chose the wrong arm to cash him in for, but using him to shore up the rotation was absolutely the right move.

Cease is looking more and more likely to actually be something, but his median outcome is still probably a very high end reliever. Like Eloy, that would hurt, but it's really unlikely he'll be enough to make this trade go down as an all timer.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Brian » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:37 pm

Even sticking to the last 10 years, 1 1/2 years of Harden equaled no playoff games won and Josh Donaldson went on to win an MVP. It's going to take a lot to top that gulf, but there are two of them to do it.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Derwood » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:42 pm

JennieGarthAlgar wrote:
Derwood wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:We sign Harper and put him in RF and keep Schwarber in LF and I don't really worry too much about Eloy... Im more worried about Cease ending up a legit #1 through his rookie deal. That would suck, but its baseball. Hopefully we win a couple rings with Quintana contributing and then it ends up being a win-win for both teams.

But to say that this will be the worst trade in franchise history at this point is horsefeathering ridiculous.


Eloy is laying waste to AAA, though.


Bryce Harper, though.


I'm 100% on the Harper bandwagon, but I appreciate the cost-benefit-analysis of saying Eloy might give you 70% of Harper at 1% of the cost
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:44 pm

Bertz wrote:I'm not too worried about losing Eloy. Even with him destroying AAA it's doubtful that he's much more than Schwarber. Maybe we chose the wrong arm to cash him in for, but using him to shore up the rotation was absolutely the right move.

Cease is looking more and more likely to actually be something, but his median outcome is still probably a very high end reliever. Like Eloy, that would hurt, but it's really unlikely he'll be enough to make this trade go down as an all timer.



The comparisons that I heard are more like a healthy Bryant rather than Schwarber.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Tim » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:48 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:I'm not too worried about losing Eloy. Even with him destroying AAA it's doubtful that he's much more than Schwarber. Maybe we chose the wrong arm to cash him in for, but using him to shore up the rotation was absolutely the right move.

Cease is looking more and more likely to actually be something, but his median outcome is still probably a very high end reliever. Like Eloy, that would hurt, but it's really unlikely he'll be enough to make this trade go down as an all timer.



The comparisons that I heard are more like a healthy Bryant rather than Schwarber.

With the bat.

But if you take out the baserunning and defense from Bryant, you're not left with that much more than Schwarber.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby David » Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:49 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:I'm not too worried about losing Eloy. Even with him destroying AAA it's doubtful that he's much more than Schwarber. Maybe we chose the wrong arm to cash him in for, but using him to shore up the rotation was absolutely the right move.

Cease is looking more and more likely to actually be something, but his median outcome is still probably a very high end reliever. Like Eloy, that would hurt, but it's really unlikely he'll be enough to make this trade go down as an all timer.



The comparisons that I heard are more like a healthy Bryant rather than Schwarber.


he doesn't walk nearly enough to warrant such a comp
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:20 pm

David wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Bertz wrote:I'm not too worried about losing Eloy. Even with him destroying AAA it's doubtful that he's much more than Schwarber. Maybe we chose the wrong arm to cash him in for, but using him to shore up the rotation was absolutely the right move.

Cease is looking more and more likely to actually be something, but his median outcome is still probably a very high end reliever. Like Eloy, that would hurt, but it's really unlikely he'll be enough to make this trade go down as an all timer.



The comparisons that I heard are more like a healthy Bryant rather than Schwarber.


he doesn't walk nearly enough to warrant such a comp


He's expected to have a higher BA than Schwarber with the same power. The walks may come with maturity.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby ConstableRabbit » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:09 pm

Derwood wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:
Derwood wrote:
Eloy is laying waste to AAA, though.


Bryce Harper, though.


I'm 100% on the Harper bandwagon, but I appreciate the cost-benefit-analysis of saying Eloy might give you 70% of Harper at 1% of the cost

I would be surprised if Eloy becomes 70% of Harper.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Derwood » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:13 pm

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Derwood wrote:
JennieGarthAlgar wrote:
Bryce Harper, though.


I'm 100% on the Harper bandwagon, but I appreciate the cost-benefit-analysis of saying Eloy might give you 70% of Harper at 1% of the cost

I would be surprised if Eloy becomes 70% of Harper.


Technically, 70% of a 1.000 OPS is a .700 OPS, so...
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby The_Achiever » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:24 pm

I'm rooting for Q to have great success. He gets dogged for a trade he didn't make, against guys who haven't even played in the bigs yet.

Forget the horsefeathering stupid white sox. I am sure Q is happy to be gone from that miserable organization. They never gave him any run support there anyway.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby Regular Show » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:30 pm

Derwood wrote:
ConstableRabbit wrote:
Derwood wrote:
I'm 100% on the Harper bandwagon, but I appreciate the cost-benefit-analysis of saying Eloy might give you 70% of Harper at 1% of the cost

I would be surprised if Eloy becomes 70% of Harper.


Technically, 70% of a 1.000 OPS is a .700 OPS, so...


Yeah, I was going to mention this as well lol. 70% of what Harper produces in value isn't actually all that great. He probably meant a higher percentage or something.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby David » Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:37 pm

well, harper has been on average about a 5.3 win player per full season of his career, so 70% of that would be a 3.7 win player which is pretty good
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:45 pm

David wrote:well, harper has been on average about a 5.3 win player per full season of his career, so 70% of that would be a 3.7 win player which is pretty good

Yea, this makes more sense than 70% of OPS since the floor isn't really 0.000 OPS.
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Re: Cubs trade Eloy, Cease, others for Quintana

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:03 am

The one catch with Quintana's first five years is that most of them were in a completely different, pitcher friendly run environment. I think he's probably closer to the 4.03 FIP guy he is overall as a Cub, maybe somewhere between his career 3.60 and his 4.03 with the Cubs, than the 4.60 this year through the end of the contract. More Ted Lilly than Jon Lester but that's not a knock with his contract and health.
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