Offseason Transactions

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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:17 pm

Dammit...I knew I should've been screaming at the teevee this past year for Maddon to bench Heyward. Maybe he'd be more inclined to waive his no-trade

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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Dec 16, 2017 9:45 pm

UMFan83 wrote:I definitely feel slightly less good about Harper


I feel like the Dodgers' needs are definitely more pitching related than bat. Even if they can resign Kershaw they're still going to have to go after an arm like Keuchel.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Post Count Padder » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:05 pm

What an odd trade. I feel like the Dodgers do this dance with the Braves every year.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby philosophizer75 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:18 pm

Just looking at some dodgers stats from last year. What on earth happened with Chris Taylor? Guy goes from seasons with 0 0 1 1 HR to 21 plus 3 in the playoffs in 2017. Out of no where.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby UMFan83 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:19 pm

Tim wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:I definitely feel slightly less good about Harper

Since that money came off the books after 2018 anyway...why?


Because it brings them under the luxury tax next season
Last edited by UMFan83 on Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:03 pm

philosophizer75 wrote:Just looking at some dodgers stats from last year. What on earth happened with Chris Taylor? Guy goes from seasons with 0 0 1 1 HR to 21 plus 3 in the playoffs in 2017. Out of no where.


Juiced ball, plenty of luck, and a very strong minor league track record
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Tim » Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:12 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
Tim wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:I definitely feel slightly less good about Harper

Since that money came off the books after 2018 anyway...why?


Because it brings them under the luxury tax next season

Yeah, saw that afterwards.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:13 pm

Question about the LT, how is the aav decided on a deal like Scherzer’s that pays him out for like 10-20 years after the playing contract with deferments? It doesn’t get divided by the duration he’s paid, right? Just the duration of the playing years in the contract?
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:19 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Question about the LT, how is the aav decided on a deal like Scherzer’s that pays him out for like 10-20 years after the playing contract with deferments? It doesn’t get divided by the duration he’s paid, right? Just the duration of the playing years in the contract?


I have to assume that's correct, otherwise you'd start to see a huge uptick in deferrals. Also counting deferral years doesn't follow the logic of how similar mechanics are handled like signing bonuses or option years.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Bertz » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:26 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Question about the LT, how is the aav decided on a deal like Scherzer’s that pays him out for like 10-20 years after the playing contract with deferments? It doesn’t get divided by the duration he’s paid, right? Just the duration of the playing years in the contract?


Correct, though you do get a discount based on the present value of the money. Like let's say you sign a 5 year, $100 million contract. That's obviously $20 mil in AAV. Now let's say a bunch of that money is deferred, so the contact is really worth 5/90 in NPV. The luxury tax hit would then be $18 mil per year.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby davell » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:29 pm

What kind of contract does Kershaw get next year? I can't imagine the Dodgers letting him walk, so our best hope on Bryce is the Dodgers really, really having to ante up for Kershaw and then going after some of the less costly names next year, to pair with him.

Is 8/320 too ambitious, if he has a good year?
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:29 pm

davell wrote:What kind of contract does Kershaw get next year? I can't imagine the Dodgers letting him walk, so our best hope on Bryce is the Dodgers really, really having to ante up for Kershaw and then going after some of the less costly names next year, to pair with him.

Is 8/320 too ambitious, if he has a good year?


Time to root against his annual back injury.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby davell » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:32 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
davell wrote:What kind of contract does Kershaw get next year? I can't imagine the Dodgers letting him walk, so our best hope on Bryce is the Dodgers really, really having to ante up for Kershaw and then going after some of the less costly names next year, to pair with him.

Is 8/320 too ambitious, if he has a good year?


Time to root against his annual back injury.


Yeah, I think we need to pull for him to be lights out.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Bertz » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:47 pm

davell wrote:What kind of contract does Kershaw get next year? I can't imagine the Dodgers letting him walk, so our best hope on Bryce is the Dodgers really, really having to ante up for Kershaw and then going after some of the less costly names next year, to pair with him.

Is 8/320 too ambitious, if he has a good year?


Yeah, assuming he's typical Kershaw and gets to 200 innings, I think the over/under is probably $300 million.

Obviously a year out things will change a lot, but I'm expecting something like this

Harper - $500 million
Machado - $400 million
Kershaw - $300 million
Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon - $150 million

And then Andrew McCutchen, AJ Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Garret Richards and maybe even one of the relievers all have a chance at $100 million with good walk years.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby davell » Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:56 pm

Bertz wrote:
davell wrote:What kind of contract does Kershaw get next year? I can't imagine the Dodgers letting him walk, so our best hope on Bryce is the Dodgers really, really having to ante up for Kershaw and then going after some of the less costly names next year, to pair with him.

Is 8/320 too ambitious, if he has a good year?


Yeah, assuming he's typical Kershaw and gets to 200 innings, I think the over/under is probably $300 million.

Obviously a year out things will change a lot, but I'm expecting something like this

Harper - $500 million
Machado - $400 million
Kershaw - $300 million
Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon - $150 million

And then Andrew McCutchen, AJ Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Garret Richards and maybe even one of the relievers all have a chance at $100 million with good walk years.


I figure there's too many relievers for one of them to bust 100. But, I'd say Elvis Andrus opting out of 4/58 and getting 100+ is very realistic, if he has another good year. Kikuchi seems like he could get 100 as well, with another good year in Japan. Plus, I'm guessing Puig gets 100+ relatively easily. Assuming he's a FA, even though he's not on the MLBTR list for some reason.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Dec 17, 2017 7:30 pm

Bertz wrote:
davell wrote:What kind of contract does Kershaw get next year? I can't imagine the Dodgers letting him walk, so our best hope on Bryce is the Dodgers really, really having to ante up for Kershaw and then going after some of the less costly names next year, to pair with him.

Is 8/320 too ambitious, if he has a good year?


Yeah, assuming he's typical Kershaw and gets to 200 innings, I think the over/under is probably $300 million.

Obviously a year out things will change a lot, but I'm expecting something like this

Harper - $500 million
Machado - $400 million
Kershaw - $300 million
Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon - $150 million

And then Andrew McCutchen, AJ Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Garret Richards and maybe even one of the relievers all have a chance at $100 million with good walk years.


Not seeing it with Grandal. He lost the starting job to Austin Barnes last year.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:41 pm

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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:41 pm

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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:43 pm

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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:02 pm

Marlins showed a little spending power today by landing Jacob Turner.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Banedon » Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:08 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:


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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:27 pm

VB's sign Chacin, he would've been a guy I had interest in, in a swingman role if Monty got traded. Their rotation is going to likely include him and Gallardo to start the year.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby davell » Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:10 pm

Chacin is evidently getting 2 years, at about 8 per. That's a damn good deal for the Brewers.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Dec 20, 2017 10:34 pm

The Nationals have reportedly agreed to terms with first baseman Matt Adams on a deal that would bring him to D.C. If finalized, the contract is expected to include a $4MM guarantee and $500K of available incentives for a single season.
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Re: Offseason Transactions

Postby d_money » Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:02 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:
The Nationals have reportedly agreed to terms with first baseman Matt Adams on a deal that would bring him to D.C. If finalized, the contract is expected to include a $4MM guarantee and $500K of available incentives for a single season.

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