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Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:09 am
by Post Count Padder
Cubswin11 wrote:Bruce was worth a little more than 2 fWAR last year but the previous 3 he was worth like .3 total

"Chicks dig the long ball", not "Chicks dig outfielders with above average UZR scores"

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:28 am
by Cubswin11
Post Count Padder wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Bruce was worth a little more than 2 fWAR last year but the previous 3 he was worth like .3 total

"Chicks dig the long ball", not "Chicks dig outfielders with above average UZR scores"

So their outfield of Cespedes/Conforto/Bruce left to right has to be one of the worst OF defenses ever, right? Especially because Conforto’s shoulder exploded and who knows how he’s gonna be able to throw.

Just seems like an awful deal, 2 of Jay/Jackson/Gonzalez/Bautista/Gomez/Kendrick /etc for like $15 million total over 1-2 years would produce the same WAR

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:07 am
by Cubswin11
Where does the LT penalty money go? Do non-offenders get it paid to them divided up evenly? Does it go to the poor/small market teams? Does it go to just some general MLB fund?

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:17 am
by texascub
Cubswin11 wrote:Where does the LT penalty money go? Do non-offenders get it paid to them divided up evenly? Does it go to the poor/small market teams? Does it go to just some general MLB fund?



I found this on Wikipedia, sourced from MLBPlayers.com:

On December 2 at the end of each contract year, the Commissioner's Office notifies every team that went over the tax threshold that they must pay their tax by January 21 of the following calendar year. The Commissioner's Office then redistributes this money in a standard manner. The first $13,000,000 will be used to defray club's funding obligations from the MLB Players Benefits Agreements. Of the remaining sum, 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each Contract Year, with accrued interest, will be used to fund the players as described in the MLB Players Benefits Plan Agreements, and the other 50% of the remaining proceeds collected for each contract year, with accrued interest, shall be provided to clubs that did not exceed the Base Tax Threshold in that Contract Year.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:39 am
by Cubswin11
Starting to see on twitter deals come in from teams and players avoiding arbitration. Hopefully we get some settlements on our guys soon to really figure out how much room we have in respect to the LT.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:05 am
by davell
Cubswin11 wrote:Starting to see on twitter deals come in from teams and players avoiding arbitration. Hopefully we get some settlements on our guys soon to really figure out how much room we have in respect to the LT.


If what Dierkes says is correct, we'll see a TON of signings. Because there's evidently no negotiating one year deals between now and the hearings. Plus, at a hearing, its an either/or ruling. Clubs number or players number. And there's a decent descrepancy between those in some cases.

Saw a Sun Times article saying there's a rumor that KB's deal will get announced tomorrow at the opening ceremony. Which I'd suspect is true, if there's no more negotiating between filing and hearing. In his case, you'd probably see the team filing at 6 or 7 and Boras filing at 11 or 12. That's too big of a difference to chance the arbitor ruling in favor of KB. It'd add an extra 2-3 mill to our LT, if we lost.

Again, if, and its a big IF, Dierkes is correct, then I'd suspect we sign each of our arb eligible guys tomorrow. And we'll know EXACTLY where we stand in conjunction to the LT.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:33 pm
by shnsajax
So Machado gets $16 million and Donaldson gets $23 million? Never thought there would be that big of a gap when Donaldson's was announced first.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:04 am
by Post Count Padder
Lol how petty is this?


Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:35 pm
by Cubswin11

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:09 pm
by Cubswin11
Seeing some things on MLBN talking about the LT. I knew it was bad but the visualization of them showing breakdowns made me realize how bad/restrictive these new penalties are. I can’t believe this was passed and the players union and/or big market teams stood for it. Hopefully it’s an unintended consequences thing and gets ratified soon because these penalty rules are ridiculous.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:10 pm
by Cubswin11

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:14 pm
by davell
Damn, gotta wonder if he turned down more earlier. I wish we had him at that price.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:21 pm
by Transmogrified Tiger
In the abstract I'd have given Reed that for sure. Morrow + Cishek + maybe Darvish v. Morrow + Reed + stronger maybe Cobb is a debate worth having, although Reed's willingness to come to a team that signed Morrow is probably a factor.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:22 pm
by Tryptamine
Unless the Cubs are able to snag Darvish, it's going to be real disappointing they couldn't get Reed at that price and duration.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:27 pm
by davell
Eh, TT probably nailed it. Reed may have wanted to close.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:27 pm
by Cubswin11
I wonder if they promised him the closer role and go him a little cheaper and he probably wasn’t interested/wanted more money to come here (or to another team) who couldn’t guarantee that

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:36 pm
by Transmogrified Tiger
Cubswin11 wrote:I wonder if they promised him the closer role and go him a little cheaper and he probably wasn’t interested/wanted more money to come here (or to another team) who couldn’t guarantee that


I'm more surprised the Cardinals didn't make that happen. Gregerson, Lyons, and Cecil are all fine to good relievers, but Reed anchoring that pen would've made a pretty big difference and none of those 3 should've posed an obstacle to adding a closer. I guess they're counting on Reyes really bolstering things when he gets to the big leagues in May.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:46 pm
by Bobson Dugnutt
Given that the twins are a team that’s been mentioned in relation to Darvish all offseason, does this do anything to decrease their likelihood of signing him? $8.5 million a year isn’t a small amount for teamlike the twins.

And yeah, I really liked Reed as an option for us, but it seems like the Cubs have been focusing on other things.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:48 pm
by Cubswin11
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:Given that the twins are a team that’s been mentioned in relation to Darvish all offseason, does this do anything to decrease their likelihood of signing him? $8.5 million a year isn’t a small amount for teamlike the twins.

And yeah, I really liked Reed as an option for us, but it seems like the Cubs have been focusing on other things.

I was always dubious on how real their interest/financial ability was for Darvish and how much he wanted to go there. I never really saw them as a threat unless they really went over the top on a offer (which I don't believe they could really afford). I view them more as a Cobb/Lynn landing spot or some of the bargain/risk guys like Tillman, Garcia, etc.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:02 pm
by Cubswin11
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I wonder if they promised him the closer role and go him a little cheaper and he probably wasn’t interested/wanted more money to come here (or to another team) who couldn’t guarantee that


I'm more surprised the Cardinals didn't make that happen. Gregerson, Lyons, and Cecil are all fine to good relievers, but Reed anchoring that pen would've made a pretty big difference and none of those 3 should've posed an obstacle to adding a closer. I guess they're counting on Reyes really bolstering things when he gets to the big leagues in May.

Are they planning on Reyes being a pen only option this year or are they going to try and get him to start (with his innings likely being very limited and watched I'd guess bullpen route with maybe a handful of starts)? I could see them going after Colome now.

Also Passan, or one of the baseball guys on twitter, I just saw said Reed had 3 year offers but the ability to close and be in the Midwest was the reason he chose the Twins. I'm guessing we were a team with a 3 year offer out but couldn't guarantee closing opportunities.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:19 pm
by Transmogrified Tiger
Cubswin11 wrote:Are they planning on Reyes being a pen only option this year or are they going to try and get him to start (with his innings likely being very limited and watched I'd guess bullpen route with maybe a handful of starts)? I could see them going after Colome now.


My understanding is he'll start in the pen but they also want him to start as the year progresses. It's kinda like they're using him as a hedge against both the rotation and the pen(both are lacking in top end options), which is understandable to not throw a bunch of money at a SP and then not have the innings, but also real risky since Reyes hasn't shown an ability to throw strikes as a starter.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:23 pm
by davell
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:Given that the twins are a team that’s been mentioned in relation to Darvish all offseason, does this do anything to decrease their likelihood of signing him? $8.5 million a year isn’t a small amount for teamlike the twins.

And yeah, I really liked Reed as an option for us, but it seems like the Cubs have been focusing on other things.

I was always dubious on how real their interest/financial ability was for Darvish and how much he wanted to go there. I never really saw them as a threat unless they really went over the top on a offer (which I don't believe they could really afford). I view them more as a Cobb/Lynn landing spot or some of the bargain/risk guys like Tillman, Garcia, etc.


Lance Lynn is a perfect Twins signing.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 8:05 pm
by Bobson Dugnutt
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bobson Dugnutt wrote:Given that the twins are a team that’s been mentioned in relation to Darvish all offseason, does this do anything to decrease their likelihood of signing him? $8.5 million a year isn’t a small amount for teamlike the twins.

And yeah, I really liked Reed as an option for us, but it seems like the Cubs have been focusing on other things.

I was always dubious on how real their interest/financial ability was for Darvish and how much he wanted to go there. I never really saw them as a threat unless they really went over the top on a offer (which I don't believe they could really afford). I view them more as a Cobb/Lynn landing spot or some of the bargain/risk guys like Tillman, Garcia, etc.


Oh, I definitely agree with this, but it's still probably a good thing to see one of our four known competitors for Darvish allocate a decent amount of money elsewhere.

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:38 am
by Cubswin11
Adrian Gonzalez and the Mets are “close” because of course that piss poor franchise would do that

Re: Offseason Transactions

Posted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:43 am
by toonsterwu
Twins have enough room that with a creative contract structure, they can be in the deep end if they want to. I mean, almost all their costliest contracts end in the next year or two - Mauer/Dozier after 18, Castro/Hughes/Santana after 19 (and they could certainly make sure Santana doesn't hit his 2019 option). I don't suspect Darvish ends up going there ... seems an odd market to go to for him, nothing against MInnesota, with no certainty that the Twins will maintain their competitiveness consistently.

As for Addison Reed ... yeah, that's a nice looking deal, and it sounds like the Cubs might've been able to compete (Passan noted he wanted to be in the Midwest so he passed up on 3 year deals). At this point, I imagine the Cubs are simply big-game hunting, in some respects, in regards to the pen. Looking at established closers, and otherwise being okay with their current options.