The Mock Off Season Thread

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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:40 am

I have a hard time seeing a successful offseason w/o Yu Darvish in Cubbie Blue. Cobb is a nice complimentary pitcher, but considering the staffs both DC and LA have, we need one more top of the rotation guy.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:20 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Do the Royals have any good young pitchers? I tried to look and didn’t see much but any prospect guys know/think they have anyone good (thinking like top 75-50 prospect with 2/3 upside)? They have some intriguing bullpen arms and with all their position player FA something like Happ and Zagunis for Soria+Karns (some success/familiarity under and with Hickey) and a pitching prospect (Jakob Junis?) if they have one seems to be a workable deal framework.


I've thought about them and that exact scenario. Junis or Skoglund just isn't enough for me though. Some think Karns has more left to show, but he's not young anymore. I think I'd pass, thinking there's got to be a better fit, since you've got to get a true rotation piece, in my mind, if we move one of our 5.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:58 am

Here's another Scorched Earth Theo Mock.....

Free Agent Signings

SS Cozart-3/39
C Rivera-1/3
LHRP Minor 3/27
RHRP Neshek 2/12
RHSP Darvish-5/140
CF Martin-1/2

Trades

Russell, Schwarber, DJ Wilson and Thomas Hatch for Chris Archer(6.3) and Brad Boxberger(1.9)

Victor Caratini and Dakota Mekkes for Blake Treinen(2.3)

Charcer Burks and Bryan Hudson for Matt Wisler



C Contreras-.7, Rivera-3
1B Rizzo-7.3
2B Baez-.7 La Stella-1
SS Cozart-13
3B Bryant-8.9
LF Happ-.7 Zobrist-16.5
CF Almora-.7 Dyson-7.5
RF Heyward-28.2



SP- Lester-27.5, Quintana-8.9, Hendricks-4.9, Archer-6.3, Darvish-28, with Montgomery, Wisler, and Tseng as 6,7,8, with Minor as an option possibly

RP- Wilson-4.3, Edwards-.7, Strop-5.9, Montgomery-.7, Treinen-2.3, Minor-9, Neshek-6, Boxberger-1.9

Payroll of 189.1 heading into the season
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:13 am

Here's another mock offseason to chew on. I'll caveat this as it wouldn't necessarily be what I'd do.

Sign Alex Cobb 4 years/$56 million
Sign Wade Miley 1 year/$8 million
Trade Ian Happ and Victor Caratini for Roberto Osuna and Thomas Pannone
Sign Rene Rivera 1 year/$4 million
Sign Alain Tamayo 5 years/$30 Million with $10 million club option
Sign Jarrod Dyson 2 years/$15 million
Sign Addison Reed 3 years/$30 million
Trade Erling Moreno for Brad Ziegler (Marlins will cover $4 million)

Willson Contreras signs extension for 5 years/$28 million with one $16 million club option (2018-2022, 2023 option)

C: Willson Contreres
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Javy Baez
SS: Addison Russell
3B: Kris Bryant
LF: Kyle Schwarber
CF: Albert Almora
RF: Jason Heyward

Bench: La Stella, Zobrist, Dyson, Rivera
SP: Hendricks, Quintana, Lester, Cobb, Miley
RP: Osuna, Reed, Edwards, Strop, Montgomery, Wilson, Ziegler, Maples/Carasiti (8th spot with options to be Iowa Shuttle)
Approximate 2018 Payroll: ~$182 million after factoring in rest of 40 man

SP depth is expanded, bullpen addressed, and our position player depth stays strong. We have plenty of room to make additional moves.

When I was making this mock at the beginning of the offseason, I originally had Happ to OAK for Manaea. That's still how I would go about utilizing Happ's value if it would work out. But we have two seasons' experience with how this FO values elite RP. With Chapman, Davis, and even Wilson, resources that could otherwise have gone towards controllable SP went to late inning arms. Whether they have data that justifies the need to obtain an elite RP or if it's just a must from Maddon, they have prioritized these types of acquisitions.

And I didn't include Ohtani. If it works out, amazing. Ditch Miley/Chatwood/Chacin, etc for 5th starter, but just can't even think it's much of a possibility until it hopefully happens.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Mon Nov 13, 2017 7:41 am

Tamayo is a guy I want to mock to us, but I've got zero clue on his value. He's supposedly got 2/3 upside. But, he's not been mentioned on any top 50 or whatever FA list. Which makes me think the 2/3 stuff was pure hype.

If he DOES look like a future starter, I'd gladly give out that contract. But, its not going to shock me, if he signs a 3 or 4 mill deal, like Armando Rivero did for us either.

Have you seen anything on him, other than that one article from a few months ago?
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:16 pm

Tim wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:Since we have to pretty much use players off of the ML roster to trade, my thoughts are the easiest to replace would be Schwarber and then Russell. Schwarber is obviously a DH and should have been traded last year when his value was at its highest point. Trading Russell gives the Reds a young, inexpensive SS to replace Cozart, while we get a great, young, inexpensive closer. Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ. Most of the signings are rather low priced leaving $$$ and players (Schwarber, Caratini, Montgomery, etc.) to acquire upgrades at the trade deadline. Hopefully Chili can correct some of the problems with Heyward and Schwarber and Hickey can work some magic with Wilson.

B2B, welcome back.

Have you come to terms with Theo being awesome yet?


Theo has done a great job. Now let's see if he can get us back to the promised land with the current situation (strong basic core,Heyward, weak farm system, strong competition with Dodgers and Nationals, etc.).
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:48 am

*Stupid 3-team trade idea that idk if I even like it or if it’s fair*

Giants apparently like Billy Hamilton

Giants get: Hamilton
Reds get: Happ and a Cubs minor league player or 2
Cubs get: Melancon, Iglesias and Tyler Beede
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:59 am

why are we trading Happ for a broken expensive reliever, Iglesias and an non-prospect
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Nov 14, 2017 2:06 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:why are we trading Happ for a broken expensive reliever, Iglesias and an non-prospect


He did qualify it as stupid
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Post Count Padder » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:35 pm

Rays considering a full rebuild.

How does Happ, Almora, Albertos, Caratini, Zagunis, DJ Wilson sound on Kiermaier, Odorizzi and Colome?
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby bd811 » Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:43 pm

i don’t see archer’s name so it doesn’t sound good.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:00 pm

If you part those guys out....I'd say Odorizzi probably brings back a borderline top 100 type, plus a top 30 in a normal system. I'd say Colome brings back a top 100 guy, plus a top 10-15 in the system. Kiermaier? My guess is he'd bring back a top 20 prospect, a top 75ish guy, another guy from the top 10 of a system, and probably a top 30 guy too.

Obviously, I'm guessing here. But, the sheer numbers should show that they're just much better off parting those guys into separate deals, than to put them into one.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:40 pm

davell wrote:If you part those guys out....I'd say Odorizzi probably brings back a borderline top 100 type, plus a top 30 in a normal system. I'd say Colome brings back a top 100 guy, plus a top 10-15 in the system. Kiermaier? My guess is he'd bring back a top 20 prospect, a top 75ish guy, another guy from the top 10 of a system, and probably a top 30 guy too.

Obviously, I'm guessing here. But, the sheer numbers should show that they're just much better off parting those guys into separate deals, than to put them into one.


I think your guess on Odorizzi is probably correct, using past trades as an example. It's a borderline top 100 type, and maybe a couple other parts. In particularly, I'm thinking the Straily and Smyly trades last winter, not perfect comps, but close. My hunch is that Odorizzi's value might be a touch lower than Straily and Smyly's. Put it this way, I'll be mildly surprised if, using our system, someone like Alzolay was required as the headliner to nab him.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:42 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:Rays considering a full rebuild.

How does Happ, Almora, Albertos, Caratini, Zagunis, DJ Wilson sound on Kiermaier, Odorizzi and Colome?


If it is a full rebuild, to me, that signals that Archer is on the market. If that's the case, we should go hard after Archer. We might still have a tough time getting him (I'd be hard-pressed to see Andrew Friedman absolutely shut down the idea of Walker Buehler), but this is where our young MLB positional assets become valuable.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:28 pm

Pondering it, if it is a full rebuild for the Rays, I'm not sure we match up all that well. They need an arm or two. That said, of all the organizations out there, they might be willing to take far away high upside guys to slowly groom. Still ... I have a hard time envisioning what that package is for Archer that can't be beat by another organization, unless we venture into moving one of Russell/Baez.

I mean ... something like Happ/Schwarber or Almora/Albertos/Alzolay is a huge package, and we'd want more than Archer, but Archer at that contract should get some bids going. Dunno, Archer would be the most intriguing addition to that rotation that I can think of, with his combination of cost, age, and production.

Dunno, but that'd be a fun thing to add to this off-season, if the Rays tear down.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:47 am

Maybe this?

Trades:

Cubs get: Stroman and Osuna
Blue Jays get: Schwarber, Happ, La Stella, Alzolay, De la Cruz, and Hatch

Cubs get: Yelich, Deitrich, Volquez
Marlins get: Baez, Almora

FAs:

Cobb (4 years)
Maybin (2 years)
JJ Hardy (1 year)
Granderson (1 year)
Morrow (2 years)
McGee (3 years?)
Oh (1 year)
R. Rivera (1 year)

Release Grimm and Rondon

Lineup:

C: Contreras/Rivera
1B: Rizzo
2B: Zobrist/Deitrich/Hardy
SS: Russell/Hardy/Deitrich
3B: Bryant/Hardy/Deitrich

OF: Yelich, Heyward, Maybin, Granderson, Zobrist

Hendricks
Lester
Stroman
Quintana
Cobb

Volquez
Montgomery
Oh
Strop
Edwards Jr.
Morrow
McGee
Osuna

Pick your 25th man out of a hat unless I’m missing someone.

Edit:

25th man would be Strop.

Why it happens:

The Blue Jays need a new lineup and the Cubs give them three plug and play cheap young bats plus some arms to help the turnover. The Marlins clean house and get a couple local plug and play starters. The Cubs finally go the direction of fallen stars on the bench with Hardy and Granderson on low commit deals for utility and platoon roles. The bullpen gets deep with a RH and LH long reliever/spot starter and the several middle relievers and set up men with closer experience or, in Morrow’s case, a fallen relatively successful power SP. The roster stays cheap, young, and flexible.

Edit again: Man, I forgot Justin Wilson. Scratch Oh
Last edited by TomtheBombadil on Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby marc_foust » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:44 am

Nontender Grimm and Rondon saves around 9 mil

Sign Cobb 4/58
Sign Chatwood 3/24

Sign Rene Rivera 1/3
Sign Cameron Maybin 2/8

Sign Bryan Shaw 2/12
Sign Jake McGee 2/15
Sign Joe Smith 2/10

Opening day payroll around $171 mil according to mlbtr arb est and fanrag's heyman's expert free agent predictions.

Chatwood should eat innings, with some upside but not a ton of risk. Cobb is the big prize and sounds likely. The three pen arms offer late inning experience with McGee and Shaw and innings in Smith. Maybin gives joe the defensive replacement and pinch runner he wants. Rivera seems like a solid fit. This scenario keeps options flexible at the deadline and next off-season. I'm not a huge fan of trading the mlb hitters right now with none of them at a sell high point. But if at the deadline Happ, Russell, schwarber, almora, or Baez have built up trade value then go ahead.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:16 pm

I am the walrus: Agree or not? The Cubs will likely sign a lower FA pitcher (Cobb), sign a lower end closer (Reed), sign a middle rp (Mcgee) or two, send a regular (Happ) for a fairly high ceiling young pitcher and spend around $30M of there $70 salary they have to spend.
12:56
Dave Cameron: I think they’ll go bigger on the closer.
12:56
Dave Cameron: If I had to guess, it’d be more like sign Cobb, trade Russell+ for Archer/Colome, sign Reed or Morrow or whoever, call it a winter.

Sign me up.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby bd811 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:27 pm

davell wrote:I am the walrus: Agree or not? The Cubs will likely sign a lower FA pitcher (Cobb), sign a lower end closer (Reed), sign a middle rp (Mcgee) or two, send a regular (Happ) for a fairly high ceiling young pitcher and spend around $30M of there $70 salary they have to spend.
12:56
Dave Cameron: I think they’ll go bigger on the closer.
12:56
Dave Cameron: If I had to guess, it’d be more like sign Cobb, trade Russell+ for Archer/Colome, sign Reed or Morrow or whoever, call it a winter.

Sign me up.


Yeah depending on the +, I’m good with all this. I think they’d still need one more reliever and a couple small pieces on the offensive side, but if these are the main moves made I’ll be happy with the shape the team is in.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:43 pm

davell wrote:I am the walrus: Agree or not? The Cubs will likely sign a lower FA pitcher (Cobb), sign a lower end closer (Reed), sign a middle rp (Mcgee) or two, send a regular (Happ) for a fairly high ceiling young pitcher and spend around $30M of there $70 salary they have to spend.
12:56
Dave Cameron: I think they’ll go bigger on the closer.
12:56
Dave Cameron: If I had to guess, it’d be more like sign Cobb, trade Russell+ for Archer/Colome, sign Reed or Morrow or whoever, call it a winter.

Sign me up.


Second choice for me but not a distant one, purely preference. I’m a fan of not trading Schwarber this offseason as far as what the trade costs. He’s the best bet to have a badass offensive season between him, Russell, Baez, and Happ.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby The_Achiever » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:45 pm

I don't want to trade future MVP Addison Russell just quite yet. Feels like we'd be selling low.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:58 pm

Archer scares me that he only throws two pitches and if/when his FB velo dips how effective he can be.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:00 am

It'd be gutsy, but I think I'd be fine with a Russell + for Archer/Colome package. At the end of the day, it's about the current window right now.

_____

I keep revisiting one of my initial thoughts from the early offseason - Cesar Hernandez. By all indications, they will listen on him due to their middle infield logjam with Scott Kingery forcing his way into the picture (along with Crawford pushing at short). Now, this only comes into play if the Cubs move Russell or Baez, but Hernandez would be a nice replacement, a capable leadoff option with a good glove at 2nd. The Phillies also have a need for a young OF with some pop, which would allow them focus money on their rotation.

If something involving Russell or Baez happened (and that would only happen, in all likelihood, for an impact SP), trying to swing a trade for Happ/? for Hernandez/Neris would be something that fascinated me. It feels like Happ for Hernandez/+ should be a workable package of sort that should be able to appease both sides and fill needs, but maybe spare parts are need both sides
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Tim » Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:49 pm

I wonder how cheaply David Price could be had. In addition to the elbow concerns, he got into it with Eck and the team was not happy with the way Price handled the whole thing. He's also got an opt out after 2018. So, if he does well, you'll only get him for a year. If he sucks, you're stuck with a lousy contract.

If you'd take on the whole contract, Boston might practically give him away right now. I'd imagine it would take a good player to get them to share in the salary risk, though.

Probably not worth it, but I'd at least check in with Dombrowski to see if something could be worked out.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:28 pm

Price is owed 4/127 after the opt out and would be 33 for the first season after the opt out. The odds of him opting out are incredibly low.
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