The Mock Off Season Thread

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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:04 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Wow, I did not realize Kipnis was so terrible at the plate this year. Can't even really blame his injury trouble because he was worse in the first half when he was presumably healthy. Not that I think that's his indefinite future, but I had no idea given how good the Indians were overall.


Should be noted that I think Kipnis was struggling with a shoulder injury at the start of the year, before the hamstring acted up mid-summer. Read it in some Indians season review, and that would definitely explain a slow start. He showed some signs of life in May/June before the hamstring hit. Granted, nothing was close to his previous performance, so it's a concern.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:05 am

I didn't realize Kipnis fell off like that either. He's either got 2/28 or 3/44.5 on his deal. I'd much prefer to just sign Cozart, than to give up anything for him.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:15 am

davell wrote:I didn't realize Kipnis fell off like that either. He's either got 2/28 or 3/44.5 on his deal. I'd much prefer to just sign Cozart, than to give up anything for him.


Yeah, I should've said 2/30.5. If Kipnis had shoulder problems, that could explain his offensive woes early. That said, if his value is that low, I'd much rather take that chance than pay Cozart for his mid-late 30's at a rate likely to be higher than what Kipnis would get over those seasons. I also wouldn't rule out Cozart potentially getting a 5th year of some sort (team option/vesting option/performance based, whatever).

I will add if mlbtr's prediction of 3/42 is correct, then okay. I've got a hard time seeing a market with few impact bats and almost no meaningful MI talent have the clearcut top guy getting 3/42. I could see 4/56. 3/42 ... I'd be stunned, even if they are correct that few teams are searching for MI.

As a darkhorse Cozart team ... I really wonder about the Diamondbacks. Their MI options were Ketel Marte and uh, Brandon Drury this past year, amongst others. Cozart would upgrade the defense and give them an impact bat to replace the departing JD Martinez, and with a bat in place, they'd have more flexibility on filling the OF spot than having to find an impact OF bat.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:30 am

Arizona is already 8 million over the highest payroll they've ever carried. I don't see them adding a SS, when they've still got to add a bat in the OF, without a system to really trade from.

I think Happ or Schwarber for Walker makes some sense for them though. If they can swing that, then adding Cozart becomes a possibility. But, it all depends on when Miller is ready to go.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:41 am

davell wrote:Arizona is already 8 million over the highest payroll they've ever carried. I don't see them adding a SS, when they've still got to add a bat in the OF, without a system to really trade from.

I think Happ or Schwarber for Walker makes some sense for them though. If they can swing that, then adding Cozart becomes a possibility. But, it all depends on when Miller is ready to go.


Most indications have been that they aren't going to move Walker (although out of all their starters, he'd be the one I'd be most worried about will regress a bit ... ). Happ for Walker does make sense for both parties, particularly since they may want to lock down Robbie Ray asap. I don't think Schwarber makes that much sense for them, as first base is a position they are deep in after Goldschmidt (well, not deep, but they have an impact talent in Pavin Smith in the minors).

Edit: Should add, I'm not inclined to see Hazen throw Schwarber in the OF, and Pavin Smith may eventually be asked to play the OF if they remain competitive and sign Goldschmidt down.

Most season ending reviews that I've read on them seem to suggest that, while they can't afford JD Martinez at the expected rate, they could probably do a thing or two, particularly if they manage to shop a starter (like Corbin). That Torres contract is somewhat hampering them (wonder if they try to dump that contract by locking someone with it, say Patrick Corbin and just taking lottery ticket returns). Tbh ... if they buy that all their starters are legit, then moving Greinke's contract makes the most sense.

Edit: Running their numbers quickly and guesses at arbitration, I have them, for 2018, in the low 90's. They had a starting the year high of 112 million a few years ago. Sure feels like they could probably fit a contract in without a huge concern.

If we'd only known about Zack Godley huh ... granted, no regrets on that deal, but never thought Zack Godley would be this good.
Last edited by toonsterwu on Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby weis21 » Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:24 pm

rational or not, if the cubs traded baez i would be clinically depressed and i'm already broke enough as it is so i don't want to have to go to a psychiatrist (again) in order to receive antidepressants.

i love that guy so, so much. other than like zobrist or heyward i'd be pretty bummed if they traded anyone noteworthy (insert "is heyward noteworthy?" joke) on the roster. if they're moving a young guy i could live with happ or maybe even schwarber, i guess, but i'd not love it. i guess happ if the return is really good (and i'm sure it would have to be).
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:56 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:Since Cobb has a decent chance of being brought in and Chatwood, Miley, Chacin all available as BOR fliers, I’d be interested in seeing Happ used to bring in late inning pen arms. If possible, JA Happ would be excellent as well, but Osuna is interesting from Toronto.
Does Ian Happ for Roberto Osuna make sense? Blue Jays do need help at 2B and they keep their SP intact. Cubs get a RP with excellent peripherals and a low walk rate. Not sure if the value equals out, but seems to make sense.


Coming back to this, I've been trying to think of ways to address the rotation without Happ because I think this makes sense. Happ may certainly be worth more and if so that's great, but like Raw said, the Soler deal gives us a slight guidepost and at the least we can be more confident we aren't homering some other team in a hypothetical deal. I also think the front office isn't going to want to try quality by quantity in the pen(and even then, convincing 2 upper echelon FA may be difficult), and outside Davis there's no elite option in FA. Osuna, Hand, and maybe Bradley are the names that would make at least some mutual sense in a deal to me.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Some Guy » Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:41 pm

What about Happ for Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:54 pm

I'd rather try to get a starter next to a closer, even if it's a 5th starter option. Something like Iglesias and uh ... Sal Romano? Not sure if the Reds do that.

Was thinking something like Hector Neris/Nick Pivetta/maybe another piece might be workable.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:55 pm

As a side note, still think the Diamondbacks pulled the Archie Bradley as a starter option too quickly. Granted, not like they needed it ... but still think he could make a solid starter if a team is patient.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:25 pm

toonsterwu wrote:As a side note, still think the Diamondbacks pulled the Archie Bradley as a starter option too quickly. Granted, not like they needed it ... but still think he could make a solid starter if a team is patient.


I don’t believe that was ever meant to be a permanent move.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:13 pm

Some Guy wrote:What about Happ for Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen.


I just want to say Iglesias is excellent and would make a good Cub. He is the reliever version of Stroman for me in that they’re top of the list trade targets during this pre-media rights window. Make that second arm Cody Reed or Stephenson instead and I’m closer, both offer a little more flexibility and ceiling.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:57 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:
Some Guy wrote:What about Happ for Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen.


I just want to say Iglesias is excellent and would make a good Cub. He is the reliever version of Stroman for me in that they’re top of the list trade targets during this pre-media rights window. Make that second arm Cody Reed or Stephenson instead and I’m closer, both offer a little more flexibility and ceiling.


The value is probably there and I really like Iglesias too. Happ has Cincy ties too, a deal with them makes quite a bit of sense in some ways.

I'd prefer Stephenson to Reed, or Romano, or Lorenzen.

I think he's got upside. But, if this is the type of route we go, I would really hope we go hard(and get) Darvish.

If we get Cobb, in this scenario, I'd hope for some semblance of a super pen approach. Get Morrow and Minor, to go with Iglesias, or something like that anyway.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:47 pm

Yeah I’m a big Stephenson fan and as a SP. Reed is more an impact reliever with his power fastball and slider.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:24 pm

Sign Cobb, Chacin, Rivera, Maybin/Jackson, Duensing, Kendrick
Trade Russell for Iglesias + Lorenzen
Minor Trade - ?? for Eduardo Escobar (Twins)

Rizzo, Happ/Zobrist, Baez, Bryant, Schwarber/Happ/Zobrist, Almora, Heyward, Contreras
Bench- Maybin/Jackson, LaStella, Rivera, Escobar, Kendrick
Rotation - Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Cobb, Chacin
BP - Edwards, Strop, Lorenzen, Wilson, Duensing, Montgomery, Iglesias
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:30 pm

Holy horsefeathers.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:35 pm

If we trade Russell, I'd really want Cozart. Cobb and Chacin is fine for the rotation, but if that's the route, again, I'd want serious upgrades to the pen.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:29 am

Since we have to pretty much use players off of the ML roster to trade, my thoughts are the easiest to replace would be Schwarber and then Russell. Schwarber is obviously a DH and should have been traded last year when his value was at its highest point. Trading Russell gives the Reds a young, inexpensive SS to replace Cozart, while we get a great, young, inexpensive closer. Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ. Most of the signings are rather low priced leaving $$$ and players (Schwarber, Caratini, Montgomery, etc.) to acquire upgrades at the trade deadline. Hopefully Chili can correct some of the problems with Heyward and Schwarber and Hickey can work some magic with Wilson.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:48 am

Backtobanks wrote:Since we have to pretty much use players off of the ML roster to trade, my thoughts are the easiest to replace would be Schwarber and then Russell. Schwarber is obviously a DH and should have been traded last year when his value was at its highest point. Trading Russell gives the Reds a young, inexpensive SS to replace Cozart, while we get a great, young, inexpensive closer. Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ. Most of the signings are rather low priced leaving $$$ and players (Schwarber, Caratini, Montgomery, etc.) to acquire upgrades at the trade deadline. Hopefully Chili can correct some of the problems with Heyward and Schwarber and Hickey can work some magic with Wilson.


I think Schwarber and Happ are the easiest to replace. Dealing either of Addy or Javy hurts our defense quite a bit.

At this point, I'm legitimately not concerned with money. We're not going to spend at a Dodger level. Maybe not the Yankees either, although I'm still unconvinced Hank spends huge.

Going over the LT this year is a question mark. Tactically, staying under this year makes sense. But, the only thing that truly matters is keeping yourself away from multi year deals that make it hard to stay 40 over the LT, after next years class.

The fact we were under in 2016, tells me that with a few major market teams trying to reset, or at least position themselves better for next years class.....We very well may be more active in FA than what we're figuring.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:54 am

Backtobanks wrote:Since we have to pretty much use players off of the ML roster to trade, my thoughts are the easiest to replace would be......and then Russell.....Trading Russell gives the Reds a young, inexpensive SS to replace Cozart, while we get a great, young, inexpensive closer. Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ.

Holy horsefeathers no, I’m nearly 100% against trading Russell. But in the scenario he’s moved it’s not because he’s one of the most replaceable it’s because he’s one of the most valuable and brings back the most valuable piece(s).
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby davell » Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:21 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:Since we have to pretty much use players off of the ML roster to trade, my thoughts are the easiest to replace would be......and then Russell.....Trading Russell gives the Reds a young, inexpensive SS to replace Cozart, while we get a great, young, inexpensive closer. Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ.

Holy horsefeathers no, I’m nearly 100% against trading Russell. But in the scenario he’s moved it’s not because he’s one of the most replaceable it’s because he’s one of the most valuable and brings back the most valuable piece(s).


Yes, he's extremely hard to replace. He MAY be one of the more valuable guys we've got to trade. Personally, I THINK he's first. But, I can see how teams would want Javy or Happ more.

Because.....Russell has not progressed offensively yet. He's got the plantar issue. And he's got the off field concerns too.

You can look at it this two ways. He's either at the low end of his value and he'll be worth more at any other point. Or, he's just not going to be the superstar, that we had hoped, and this is what he is-a very nice player.

I'm sure there's teams out there on both ends of that spectrum. But, the ones that think he's still going to be a stud, are still going to try and get him for fifty cents on the dollar.

Which won't work, unless our FO thinks this is all he's going to be, going forward. And then, we don't have a big enough offer on Happ or Schwarber to upgrade our rotation.

Not even sure where I was going here, other than I doubt Addy gets dealt. If he does, I think it tells us our FO thinks he's plateaued.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:11 am

Backtobanks wrote:Trade Russell for Iglesias + Lorenzen


Backtobanks wrote:Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ.


Woof.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:13 am

Honestly, I wouldn't be entirely surprised by Russell getting traded this offseason. He's got enough red flags that they may want to move on. If it happens, I'll trust that the front office has information that leads them to believe that's the right thing to do.

Based on the information we currently have, though, it would take more than Iglesias + Lorenzen for me to pull the trigger.
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Tim » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:14 am

Backtobanks wrote:Since we have to pretty much use players off of the ML roster to trade, my thoughts are the easiest to replace would be Schwarber and then Russell. Schwarber is obviously a DH and should have been traded last year when his value was at its highest point. Trading Russell gives the Reds a young, inexpensive SS to replace Cozart, while we get a great, young, inexpensive closer. Russell is easily replaced with Baez and opens up more opportunities for Happ. Most of the signings are rather low priced leaving $$$ and players (Schwarber, Caratini, Montgomery, etc.) to acquire upgrades at the trade deadline. Hopefully Chili can correct some of the problems with Heyward and Schwarber and Hickey can work some magic with Wilson.

B2B, welcome back.

Have you come to terms with Theo being awesome yet?
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Re: The Mock Off Season Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:40 am

Do the Royals have any good young pitchers? I tried to look and didn’t see much but any prospect guys know/think they have anyone good (thinking like top 75-50 prospect with 2/3 upside)? They have some intriguing bullpen arms and with all their position player FA something like Happ and Zagunis for Soria+Karns (some success/familiarity under and with Hickey) and a pitching prospect (Jakob Junis?) if they have one seems to be a workable deal framework.
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