Cubs Offseason Rumors

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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:50 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Post Count Padder wrote:Considering what we gave up for Wilson, I'd much rather keep him and work on mechanics in ST than sell low on him. I think he'll bounce back.


He's already got his new entrance music picked out and everything:


more like

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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:25 pm



Not a surprise. No word on Grimm yet.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 01, 2017 11:27 pm

davell wrote:https://twitter.com/ESPNChiCubs/status/936736675895459840

Not a surprise. No word on Grimm yet.

Yeah not surprising (makes no sense and he hasn’t really shown why $7-8+ mil is smart to give to him ) but sad to see him go, when he was right he was awesome. Hope he finds success elsewhere
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Post Count Padder » Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:10 am

He was a great story, one of the rare really solid Rule 5 picks, and he was a solid late inning reliever for a few years. But yeah, I think we all saw this coming.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:19 am

With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.


Guess we'll know for sure soon.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:22 am



And they are keeping him.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Post Count Padder » Sat Dec 02, 2017 12:26 am

davell wrote:With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.


Guess we'll know for sure soon.

Yeah that makes sense. And if we have a full pen and he doesn't look bad it's also a trade audition for some team trying to fill the back of their pen. But I like him as a bounceback candidate.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:46 am

We didn't offer Taylor Davis a contract. After the roster movement of the past couple of days, our 40 man is sitting at 34. Its pretty rare to see our FO with this many open spots. My guess is we'll be extremely active in claiming guys this off season. Even moreso than normal.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Bertz » Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:56 am

davell wrote:With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.


Guess we'll know for sure soon.


This is why I expected both to be tendered. I figured ~1.5 million was a worthwhile gamble, considering how much payroll we presumably have. Either Rondon's arm is seriously horsefeathered, or we've got less money to play with than I thought. If the latter, I wonder if it means we plan on spending a ton or if we're going to tighten the belt a little in preparation for next winter.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:00 am

Bertz wrote:
davell wrote:With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.


Guess we'll know for sure soon.


This is why I expected both to be tendered. I figured ~1.5 million was a worthwhile gamble, considering how much payroll we presumably have. Either Rondon's arm is seriously horsefeathered, or we've got less money to play with than I thought. If the latter, I wonder if it means we plan on spending a ton or if we're going to tighten the belt a little in preparation for next winter.

Even if he is healthy he hasn’t performed well and he wasn’t gonna be cheap. He would get $7-8 mil+, that can go a long ways towards something else rather than for a guy who’d be competing for one of the last bullpen spots.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:11 am

Bertz wrote:
davell wrote:With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.


Guess we'll know for sure soon.


This is why I expected both to be tendered. I figured ~1.5 million was a worthwhile gamble, considering how much payroll we presumably have. Either Rondon's arm is seriously horsefeathered, or we've got less money to play with than I thought. If the latter, I wonder if it means we plan on spending a ton or if we're going to tighten the belt a little in preparation for next winter.


I don't see money as being an issue. Other than staying under the LT this year, before going over it next year. I have no idea, but in calculating LT, its possible the full amount of Rondon or Grimm's deal could count against it, even if we'd only be paying a small portion of it.

No idea if its the case or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is. And 6 mill is a decent amount for us, based on how much we've got committed, plus the likely spots and costs of new players.

I'm guessing our beginning of the season payroll is in the 170-175 range.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:26 am

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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:53 am

UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/938201238381957121

Other than throwing strikes I think I Kintzler horsefeathering sucks, especially on a multi-year deal (which I assume he’ll get).
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:05 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/938201238381957121

Other than throwing strikes I think I Kintzler horsefeathering sucks, especially on a multi-year deal (which I assume he’ll get).


I'd be fine with him. He gets a ton of grounders. I'd prefer Neshek, but I'd be OK with either.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:45 am

Kintzler isn't bad but he'll get overpaid for having closer experience when, yeah Neshak is a good alternative.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:53 pm

I don't know where to put this, so I'm just putting it in here. There's been plenty of talk in articles, about our payroll hitting close to 140 now, after adding Chatwood. No articles are crying poor, by any means, but I've seen some suggest that IF we were to go after Jake or Wade, it'd be an either/or type of thing. That we want to stay under the LT.....Which I'm sure we do.

But, our LT number isn't REMOTELY close to 140 right now.

Heyward-23
Lester-25.833
Zobrist-14
Chatwood-12.667
Strop-5.925
Rizzo-5.833
Quintana-4.1

Total-91.358

Arb Eligible Estimates

Bryant-8.9
Hendricks-4.9
Wilson-4.3
Grimm-2.4
Russell-2.3
La Stella-1.0

Total-23.8

115.158 for those 13 players, with Baez, Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Contreras, Edwards, and Montgomery costing about 4 mill TOTAL.

So, why is this number so different? Its because you take the average of a contract, not what's being paid out that individual year. We save quite a bit on the LT this year on Heyward, Lester, Zobrist, Rizzo, and Quintana.

So anyway, we've got the ability to go do whatever we see fit. And we can do some serious damage AND save for Bryce next year too. We're in much better shape than what the beat guys are seeing right now.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Bertz » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:33 pm

When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:49 pm

Bertz wrote:When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.


The 40 man guys cost what, 200k apiece or so? I figured 15 on the insurance stuff. At any rate, I think we've got close to 50 mill to spend, AFTER Chatwood, and still have about 10 mill leftover for in season moves.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Tryptamine » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:02 pm

So you figure if things go really well 2M on Rene Rivera,10M on Morrow, 8M on Reed, does that even leave enough to go after Cobb and still have Harper money next year?
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Bertz » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:13 pm

davell wrote:
Bertz wrote:When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.


The 40 man guys cost what, 200k apiece or so? I figured 15 on the insurance stuff. At any rate, I think we've got close to 50 mill to spend, AFTER Chatwood, and still have about 10 mill leftover for in season moves.


150k per person. So 150k x 15 is 2.25 million. I also realize now my wording was a little misleading, the 15.5 million is insurance AND guys on the 40.

But yeah I think you're spot on. It makes me wonder if we will make a move or two specifically with the LT in mind. For example, buying out Rizzo or Quintana's options would shift some luxury tax burden from 2019/2020 to 2018. If come February we're 20+ million under the cap, it's something to strongly consider.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:31 pm

Tryptamine wrote:So you figure if things go really well 2M on Rene Rivera,10M on Morrow, 8M on Reed, does that even leave enough to go after Cobb and still have Harper money next year?


I think they're aware they'll be heading over the LT next year. In a perfect world, they'd stay within 20 mill of it, but my guess is they just don't want to go 40 over.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:39 pm

Tryptamine wrote:So you figure if things go really well 2M on Rene Rivera,10M on Morrow, 8M on Reed, does that even leave enough to go after Cobb and still have Harper money next year?


Yes, because they'll go over the luxury tax next year.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:47 pm

Bertz wrote:
davell wrote:
Bertz wrote:When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.


The 40 man guys cost what, 200k apiece or so? I figured 15 on the insurance stuff. At any rate, I think we've got close to 50 mill to spend, AFTER Chatwood, and still have about 10 mill leftover for in season moves.


150k per person. So 150k x 15 is 2.25 million. I also realize now my wording was a little misleading, the 15.5 million is insurance AND guys on the 40.

But yeah I think you're spot on. It makes me wonder if we will make a move or two specifically with the LT in mind. For example, buying out Rizzo or Quintana's options would shift some luxury tax burden from 2019/2020 to 2018. If come February we're 20+ million under the cap, it's something to strongly consider.


Yeah, I could see that. I think the main thing we try is add one year bullpen options, to keep as much off the books as possible next year.

We'll still have the same 7 guys under contract next year, but Quintana goes from 4.1 to 10.5, I guess, unless they use your idea.

Even with arb raises and guys hitting it for the 1st time, we're in damn good shape. But, I'd figure on as many one year options as possible, for the pen. With a guy like Morrow or Reed, maybe even Davis, to go with them. And I really think we're going to trade for another cost controlled starter now that Ohtani is gone.

But, if we wanted to sign Darvish and bring back Wade, we can do it and stay under in 2018 and have a bit of room for 2019, but they'd have to know that signing Bryce puts them into the 20 over range.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:21 pm

The Orioles are taking calls on Machado...... would you do something like Russell, Almora or Happ, Monty, Alzolay, and other prospects for Machado, Britton and Gausmen or Bundy with no guarantee Machado would be open to signing here after the year (I doubt he’d agree to an extension as part of the trade)? More of just a thought exercise than something I even like or want to do.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:52 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:The Orioles are taking calls on Machado...... would you do something like Russell, Almora or Happ, Monty, Alzolay, and other prospects for Machado, Britton and Gausmen or Bundy with no guarantee Machado would be open to signing here after the year (I doubt he’d agree to an extension as part of the trade)? More of just a thought exercise than something I even like or want to do.


nope

we're good in the infield, on offense, and positionally in general

i do want super-team status but i'd rather just do that by signing bryce next year
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