Cubs Offseason Rumors

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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby ScrubMD » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:20 pm

toonsterwu wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
The same reason they traded one for Davis.



Yea but Happ >>>>> Soler


Happ this year is greater than Soler by a decent amount.

This year's Happ versus last year's Soler is a lot closer debate than some may think. I think this year's Happ is ahead, but it's not by that much to make a discussion about it moot.


How do you figure?

Soler’s only value was with the bat, and even there Happ was far ahead of him. Soler is a liability in the corner outfield, while Happ has an average’ish glove at premium positions. Happ also has more speed and does not have Soler’s history with injuries.

Soler was one of my favorites because he had such majestic dongs, but his value was nearly all in potential, which was not looking nearly as promising by the end of last year.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Hunter » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:24 pm

toonsterwu wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
The same reason they traded one for Davis.



Yea but Happ >>>>> Soler


Happ this year is greater than Soler by a decent amount.

This year's Happ versus last year's Soler is a lot closer debate than some may think. I think this year's Happ is ahead, but it's not by that much to make a discussion about it moot.


That's one heck of a hot take. Happ by every statistical measurement is better than Soler was in 2016 by quite a bit. About the only thing Soler did better was walk which lead to a tiny bit higher OBP.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Regular Show » Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:58 pm

Yeah, I think context matters here. Soler was viewed as a depreciating asset by Theo and Jed with an extensive history of injuries. The Cubs probably sold low on him. If we had moved him after the 2015 season we would've gotten a lot more for him. I don't blame the Cubs for that since we re-signed D. Fowler right before the start of the 2016 season.

Z. Britton also had a down year and his stats aren't super impressive. I definitely wouldn't trade Happ for just one season of Britton. I like Britton, but I have some concerns about his health.

Happ is probably regarded pretty highly by other teams. Every writer and prospect analyst has spoken highly of his bat and offensive potential. Defense has always been the question mark, and I think he's fine in the OF. I really like Happ, and would only move him for a cost-controlled young starting pitcher.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:27 pm

ScrubMD wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:

Yea but Happ >>>>> Soler


Happ this year is greater than Soler by a decent amount.

This year's Happ versus last year's Soler is a lot closer debate than some may think. I think this year's Happ is ahead, but it's not by that much to make a discussion about it moot.


How do you figure?

Soler’s only value was with the bat, and even there Happ was far ahead of him. Soler is a liability in the corner outfield, while Happ has an average’ish glove at premium positions. Happ also has more speed and does not have Soler’s history with injuries.

Soler was one of my favorites because he had such majestic dongs, but his value was nearly all in potential, which was not looking nearly as promising by the end of last year.


Look, I'm not saying Happ this year shouldn't be ahead of Soler last year on some objective analysis of value. Of course Happ's ahead. That said, trade value of young assets tends not to be only focused on immediate value. I really don't think this is some sort of hot take. Soler was an intriguing asset because of said potential, plus the fact that he finished the 2nd half of the year, in his limited at bats, fairly well ( .258/.348/.515). He had cut down on his strikeout rate, in the limited 2016 ab's, from that 2015 rate. There was still a decent amount of folks that believed if he could stay healthy, he could put up some monster offensive seasons. Keep in mind that there was a lot of talk about how he didn't have a good understanding of nutrition prior to coming stateside, and all the other things about body maintenance. However unfair it may be, Happ's ceiling was never viewed at Soler's level.

I really don't see how my comment incurred these replies. I think we're easily forgetting the type of potential that was associated with Soler's ceiling and how potential gets overrated in trades. Tbh, I think there's a chance that teams will pick apart Happ as a trade asset a lot more than people think (really still is more a LF, despite decent tools, where the best case is that he might be average; the high strikeout rate, the struggles (I could be wrong about this, haven't checked in awhile) against breaking balls). To be clear, in case that leads to some replies, I'm not saying his trade value is bad or anything like that. In fact, I think Happ's trade value this year is quite high, but I do think teams will pick him apart a lot more than people think here.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:03 pm



Jed: "Theo, should we bring back Lackey?"

Theo: "Neigh"
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:04 pm

Toonster, you literally just took every possible positive look at one guy and the opposite on the other. Being in sales, I appreciate that.

But, GM's just aren't looking at it like that.

Soler was older, under a contract, injury prone, had struggled some, and was a liability defensively.

And I'm not picking at things. Those are facts.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby ConstableRabbit » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:17 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

Jed: "Theo, should we bring back Lackey?"

Theo: "Neigh"

Hay now.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:20 pm

davell wrote:Toonster, you literally just took every possible positive look at one guy and the opposite on the other. Being in sales, I appreciate that.

But, GM's just aren't looking at it like that.

Soler was older, under a contract, injury prone, had struggled some, and was a liability defensively.

And I'm not picking at things. Those are facts.


Sure, but here's the thing. My point isn't how we should look at those players. If that was, I'd be ridiculous for taking one extreme versus another.
Furthermore, my point, again, isn't that last year's Soler should be ahead of this year's Happ. I'm not making a sell. I'm making an argument for why last year's Soler's trade value is closer to Happ this year than what people seem to think, and essentially, that entails taking one's positives versus another's negatives.

I would argue two things as a continuation:

a) The injury prone argument was, in many respects, mitigated by the opinion that, with better understanding of health and nutrition, he would get better.

b) The contract, when juxtaposed against his potential, was hard to view as a negative. It might not be a positive, but it was hardly a negative.

Now, at the end of the day, trade value is subjective.

Essentially, what I'm saying is what Dave Cameron said last year (from his article on the trade)

Soler is, in some ways, the outfield version of Kolten Wong at this point; a mid-20s guy who hasn’t shown he can be an above-average regular yet, but has a long-term deal at cheap prices that makes him somewhat useful even if he just is what he is. Except Soler still has mythical upside: if he figures out how to hit like people think he could hit, his value would skyrocket.


The Soler trade was largely viewed as a win-win for both sides. That wasn't a knock on Wade Davis. He was viewed as a premier pen arm, and justifiably so. It was praise for Soler's perceived trade value. (I actually recall a couple blurbs about the Royals perhaps winning the trade, due to Davis' injury history).

I think there's a distinction that needs to be made - we're talking about trade value, not who is the better bet, who has proven more. Trade value is, in many ways, a thing that adjusts depending on the circumstances, hence why I always say that comparable trades are only for discussion, as each trade exists within it's own environment.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby toonsterwu » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:22 pm

ConstableRabbit wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

Jed: "Theo, should we bring back Lackey?"

Theo: "Neigh"

Hay now.


Before we jump on an absolute no, I'd like to know what Lackey is asking for. I want Lackey gone as much as the next guy, but the focus should be on the other starter addition. If Lackey's willing to come back cheap ... then okay, that's a 5th starter who will eat innings. As someone posted awhile ago here, people pay for that stuff, more than people think.

All that said, I doubt Lackey is coming back extremely cheap, so my guess is no, but I'd at least want to know what the cost is.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:24 pm

toonsterwu wrote:Before we jump on an absolute no


I'm perfectly willing to put the cart before the horse and say there are zero circumstances in which I would welcome Lackey back next year.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Bertz » Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:50 pm

Happ is weird. More than any of our players except maybe Javy, it’s a case of “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.”

Pro’s

- He played nearly a full year in the majors at 22, and did quite well for himself
- He was actually well above average in sprint speed, which probably means that in the medium to long term he should be fine (or maybe even good) in CF.
- With the rise in shifts, the bar is getting lower for defensive acumen at 2b. With his aforementioned speed and good positioning, his odds of being acceptable at 2b are higher than they were 10 years ago

Con’s

- He probably didn’t hit as well as his line indicated
- The strikeouts, my god the strikeouts
- He’s an awkward and clumsy defender

If you think the contact ability will improve with age (maybe not go full KB, but he gets them down to 23-25%), he looks like Jason Kipnis with more power. If you think the strikeouts and defensive awkwardness are here to stay and his line this year was juiced by a few wall-scraping homeruns, then he’s probably more of a second division starter. But even on the latter end of the spectrum, doing what he did at 22 and with six more years of team control should make him fairly valuable. I would guess that, even if the Orioles specifically wouldn’t do such a deal, Happ’s value is in the Gausman + Britton range.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Regular Show » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:31 am

Bertz wrote:Happ is weird. More than any of our players except maybe Javy, it’s a case of “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.”

Pro’s

- He played nearly a full year in the majors at 22, and did quite well for himself
- He was actually well above average in sprint speed, which probably means that in the medium to long term he should be fine (or maybe even good) in CF.
- With the rise in shifts, the bar is getting lower for defensive acumen at 2b. With his aforementioned speed and good positioning, his odds of being acceptable at 2b are higher than they were 10 years ago

Con’s

- He probably didn’t hit as well as his line indicated
- The strikeouts, my god the strikeouts
- He’s an awkward and clumsy defender

If you think the contact ability will improve with age (maybe not go full KB, but he gets them down to 23-25%), he looks like Jason Kipnis with more power. If you think the strikeouts and defensive awkwardness are here to stay and his line this year was juiced by a few wall-scraping homeruns, then he’s probably more of a second division starter. But even on the latter end of the spectrum, doing what he did at 22 and with six more years of team control should make him fairly valuable. I would guess that, even if the Orioles specifically wouldn’t do such a deal, Happ’s value is in the Gausman + Britton range.


I'm not even willing to trade Happ for Gausman + Britton straight up. I have some concerns about Gausman as well. I like both of those pitchers and think they'd do well on the Cubs, but they are expensive and getting close to FA.

I think we should talk to the Rockies, and see how high (or not) they are on J. Hoffman. I still like him and think his curveball and repertoire will do a lot better once he leaves Colorado. Another thing is they don't strike me as having a modern smart savvy FO.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:41 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:Before we jump on an absolute no


I'm perfectly willing to put the cart before the horse and say there are zero circumstances in which I would welcome Lackey back next year.


I'd go as far as to say I'd rather have Tseng in the rotation.

He was barely above replacement level this year and is only getting older. By definition, that isn't hard to find. I'm not sure what this idea is that he provides anything of value just because he "eats (children) innings."
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:53 am

Jesse Rogers' article today saddened me quite a bit. Obviously, Rogers isn't great. But, it still made me think....

His off season expectations seem to be that Schwarber definitely is at the low end of his value and we're not selling low on him. He doesn't think Happ will bring back the young cost controlled type we'd want for him. And he just doesn't see us moving Addy or Javy, for that pitching.

So, he expects us to add Cobb. But, then sees the 5th starter as a guy like Buchholz, Miles Mikolas, or bringing Lackey back.

Minor would be our Brett Cecil type of acquisition, then finding a closer, which he didn't really get into options on.

So, if we add Cobb, to go with Mikolas, Buchholz, or Lackey, for the rotation.....

Minor, to go with one of Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, or Kintzler(taken from another article as guys we think can close) for the pen.....

With nominal other pieces......

1) Are you OK with that off season?

2) Does that team likely enter the season projected to win the division?
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:58 am

davell wrote:Jesse Rogers' article today saddened me quite a bit. Obviously, Rogers isn't great. But, it still made me think....

His off season expectations seem to be that Schwarber definitely is at the low end of his value and we're not selling low on him. He doesn't think Happ will bring back the young cost controlled type we'd want for him. And he just doesn't see us moving Addy or Javy, for that pitching.

So, he expects us to add Cobb. But, then sees the 5th starter as a guy like Buchholz, Miles Mikolas, or bringing Lackey back.

Minor would be our Brett Cecil type of acquisition, then finding a closer, which he didn't really get into options on.

So, if we add Cobb, to go with Mikolas, Buchholz, or Lackey, for the rotation.....

Minor, to go with one of Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, or Kintzler(taken from another article as guys we think can close) for the pen.....

With nominal other pieces......

1) Are you OK with that off season?

2) Does that team likely enter the season projected to win the division?


these are jesse rogers's opinions (as opposed to him reporting who tomorrow's starting pitcher is, which he can at least sort of do) so the correct way to look at them is to expect the opposite to be true
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:03 am

David wrote:
davell wrote:Jesse Rogers' article today saddened me quite a bit. Obviously, Rogers isn't great. But, it still made me think....

His off season expectations seem to be that Schwarber definitely is at the low end of his value and we're not selling low on him. He doesn't think Happ will bring back the young cost controlled type we'd want for him. And he just doesn't see us moving Addy or Javy, for that pitching.

So, he expects us to add Cobb. But, then sees the 5th starter as a guy like Buchholz, Miles Mikolas, or bringing Lackey back.

Minor would be our Brett Cecil type of acquisition, then finding a closer, which he didn't really get into options on.

So, if we add Cobb, to go with Mikolas, Buchholz, or Lackey, for the rotation.....

Minor, to go with one of Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, or Kintzler(taken from another article as guys we think can close) for the pen.....

With nominal other pieces......

1) Are you OK with that off season?

2) Does that team likely enter the season projected to win the division?


these are jesse rogers's opinions (as opposed to him reporting who tomorrow's starting pitcher is, which he can at least sort of do) so the correct way to look at them is to expect the opposite to be true



Either way, its a very lackluster off season, in my mind. The main point was, what if that IS our off season? Its not beyond the realm of possibility, with no trades and looking towards the 2018 class.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:10 am

davell wrote:Jesse Rogers' article today saddened me quite a bit. Obviously, Rogers isn't great. But, it still made me think....

His off season expectations seem to be that Schwarber definitely is at the low end of his value and we're not selling low on him. He doesn't think Happ will bring back the young cost controlled type we'd want for him. And he just doesn't see us moving Addy or Javy, for that pitching.

So, he expects us to add Cobb. But, then sees the 5th starter as a guy like Buchholz, Miles Mikolas, or bringing Lackey back.

Minor would be our Brett Cecil type of acquisition, then finding a closer, which he didn't really get into options on.

So, if we add Cobb, to go with Mikolas, Buchholz, or Lackey, for the rotation.....

Minor, to go with one of Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, or Kintzler(taken from another article as guys we think can close) for the pen.....

With nominal other pieces......

1) Are you OK with that off season?

2) Does that team likely enter the season projected to win the division?

I’d be mostly fine with that offseason, still would be favorites for the division short of the Cardinals pulling off like all 5 of the rumored deals they have been linked to. I’d almost prefer this route on the offseason if the value isn’t there for trades. It would be nice to at least be more in the Chatwood type 5 starter tier than total reclamations like Bucholz.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:12 am

legitimately keeping the powder dry for bryce harper wouldn't exactly break my heart. and i fully expect a trade for an SP on top of what looks like a very likely cobb signing.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby treebird » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:19 am

David wrote:legitimately keeping the powder dry for bryce harper wouldn't exactly break my heart. and i fully expect a trade for an SP on top of what looks like a very likely cobb signing.


yeah, I have no expectations beyond what Rogers says above (cobb + closer) and a trade for a starting pitcher. sitting on everyone and going with "whoops we still have too many position players and not enough starters" would piss me off, but I really don't think that will happen.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:25 am

treebird wrote:
David wrote:legitimately keeping the powder dry for bryce harper wouldn't exactly break my heart. and i fully expect a trade for an SP on top of what looks like a very likely cobb signing.


yeah, I have no expectations beyond what Rogers says above (cobb + closer) and a trade for a starting pitcher. sitting on everyone and going with "whoops we still have too many position players and not enough starters" would piss me off, but I really don't think that will happen.

We don’t really have too many position players, imo. It’s a strength, for sure, that is available to deal from to fix a weakness (SP) but if we just sign 2-3 SP I’d be fine with keeping everyone. It doesn’t seem like some missed opportunity/worth thinking we screwed up and be pissed about. There’s enough PAs/platoon advantages to get everyone more than enough playing time. Part of me just wants to hold on to everyone for now and sign Cobb+Chatwood+A Bucholz type, especially if value is low and/or we really don’t want to move guys (Russell for example).
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:30 am

Injuries happen, I don't think there'll be issues finding AB's, to be honest.

That said, I'm pulling for a trade.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Bull » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:17 am

David wrote:legitimately keeping the powder dry for bryce harper wouldn't exactly break my heart. and i fully expect a trade for an SP on top of what looks like a very likely cobb signing.

I think we have to sign Harper next yr to keep Bryant beyond 2021. IF Harper doesn't join Bryant in Chicago, Bryant very likely joins Harper elsewhere.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:35 am

Bull wrote:
David wrote:legitimately keeping the powder dry for bryce harper wouldn't exactly break my heart. and i fully expect a trade for an SP on top of what looks like a very likely cobb signing.

I think we have to sign Harper next yr to keep Bryant beyond 2021. IF Harper doesn't join Bryant in Chicago, Bryant very likely joins Harper elsewhere.


don't think that's even a little bit true but i hope we sign bryce harper
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:22 am

Mooney just brought up Mikolas if we sign Cobb too.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:37 am

David wrote:
Bull wrote:
David wrote:legitimately keeping the powder dry for bryce harper wouldn't exactly break my heart. and i fully expect a trade for an SP on top of what looks like a very likely cobb signing.

I think we have to sign Harper next yr to keep Bryant beyond 2021. IF Harper doesn't join Bryant in Chicago, Bryant very likely joins Harper elsewhere.


don't think that's even a little bit true but i hope we sign bryce harper


I really think if he leaves Washington he’s coming here. It seems like the Cubs are his preferred destination and it sounds like Theo is going to offer whatever it takes to get him.
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