Cubs Offseason Rumors

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Tim
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Tim » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:42 am

davell wrote:
David wrote:
davell wrote:Jesse Rogers' article today saddened me quite a bit. Obviously, Rogers isn't great. But, it still made me think....

His off season expectations seem to be that Schwarber definitely is at the low end of his value and we're not selling low on him. He doesn't think Happ will bring back the young cost controlled type we'd want for him. And he just doesn't see us moving Addy or Javy, for that pitching.

So, he expects us to add Cobb. But, then sees the 5th starter as a guy like Buchholz, Miles Mikolas, or bringing Lackey back.

Minor would be our Brett Cecil type of acquisition, then finding a closer, which he didn't really get into options on.

So, if we add Cobb, to go with Mikolas, Buchholz, or Lackey, for the rotation.....

Minor, to go with one of Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, or Kintzler(taken from another article as guys we think can close) for the pen.....

With nominal other pieces......

1) Are you OK with that off season?

2) Does that team likely enter the season projected to win the division?


these are jesse rogers's opinions (as opposed to him reporting who tomorrow's starting pitcher is, which he can at least sort of do) so the correct way to look at them is to expect the opposite to be true



Either way, its a very lackluster off season, in my mind. The main point was, what if that IS our off season? Its not beyond the realm of possibility, with no trades and looking towards the 2018 class.

I'd be okay with it, tbh. I'd make some different choices after Cobb, but I think that still puts us as favorites in the division. I'm sure they'd make some additions at mid-season.

It really, really makes me wish we had moved on Verlander, though.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby d_money » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:27 am

Tim wrote:
davell wrote:
David wrote:
these are jesse rogers's opinions (as opposed to him reporting who tomorrow's starting pitcher is, which he can at least sort of do) so the correct way to look at them is to expect the opposite to be true



Either way, its a very lackluster off season, in my mind. The main point was, what if that IS our off season? Its not beyond the realm of possibility, with no trades and looking towards the 2018 class.

I'd be okay with it, tbh. I'd make some different choices after Cobb, but I think that still puts us as favorites in the division. I'm sure they'd make some additions at mid-season.

It really, really makes me wish we had moved on Verlander, though.

I’d be ok if these are the only moves the Cubs make, if the Cards and vaunted Brewers don’t make many moves - but we know that’s not gonna be the case.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Wed Nov 15, 2017 4:41 am

Tim wrote:
davell wrote:
David wrote:
these are jesse rogers's opinions (as opposed to him reporting who tomorrow's starting pitcher is, which he can at least sort of do) so the correct way to look at them is to expect the opposite to be true



Either way, its a very lackluster off season, in my mind. The main point was, what if that IS our off season? Its not beyond the realm of possibility, with no trades and looking towards the 2018 class.

I'd be okay with it, tbh. I'd make some different choices after Cobb, but I think that still puts us as favorites in the division. I'm sure they'd make some additions at mid-season.

It really, really makes me wish we had moved on Verlander, though.


Regarding Verlander, I already don't remember: Did we not make a move for him, or did we not have any sort of prospects to get him?
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:03 am

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Tim wrote:
davell wrote:

Either way, its a very lackluster off season, in my mind. The main point was, what if that IS our off season? Its not beyond the realm of possibility, with no trades and looking towards the 2018 class.

I'd be okay with it, tbh. I'd make some different choices after Cobb, but I think that still puts us as favorites in the division. I'm sure they'd make some additions at mid-season.

It really, really makes me wish we had moved on Verlander, though.


Regarding Verlander, I already don't remember: Did we not make a move for him, or did we not have any sort of prospects to get him?


They wanted Happ or Javy evidently.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:46 pm

Bertz wrote:Happ is weird. More than any of our players except maybe Javy, it’s a case of “beauty is in the eye of the beholder.”

Pro’s

- He played nearly a full year in the majors at 22, and did quite well for himself
- He was actually well above average in sprint speed, which probably means that in the medium to long term he should be fine (or maybe even good) in CF.
- With the rise in shifts, the bar is getting lower for defensive acumen at 2b. With his aforementioned speed and good positioning, his odds of being acceptable at 2b are higher than they were 10 years ago

Con’s

- He probably didn’t hit as well as his line indicated
- The strikeouts, my god the strikeouts
- He’s an awkward and clumsy defender

If you think the contact ability will improve with age (maybe not go full KB, but he gets them down to 23-25%), he looks like Jason Kipnis with more power. If you think the strikeouts and defensive awkwardness are here to stay and his line this year was juiced by a few wall-scraping homeruns, then he’s probably more of a second division starter. But even on the latter end of the spectrum, doing what he did at 22 and with six more years of team control should make him fairly valuable. I would guess that, even if the Orioles specifically wouldn’t do such a deal, Happ’s value is in the Gausman + Britton range.


I hate the thought of trading Happ at this point. As you pointed out, He had a very good year at a very young age. His versatility, power, and speed certainly are assets that shouldn't be overlooked. He did strike out a lot, but hopefully Chili can improve the contact rate. He's certainly not the only one on the team that has a problem with strikeouts (i.e. Schwarber, Baez) or awkward clumsy defense (i.e. Schwarber, Zobrist). BTW, those wall scraping HRs count the same as Schwarber's majestic shots. LOL
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby muntjack » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:13 pm

Yeah, Happ had the 12th best ISO in the league as a rookie. (400PAs) I would hate to see him moved in a deal that didn't include Archer.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 15, 2017 2:33 pm

Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season. Schwarber continuing his career offense(excluding pre-demotion 2017) and defense is a near 4 win LF. Almora's second half at the plate with his known defensive capabilities is a 3+ win hitter. That possibility exists for Happ, but I think the odds of him regressing and having those contact issues catch up to him outweigh that possibility. Happ's positional flexibility is great too, but it means a bit less when you have someone like Heyward capable of sliding to CF and multi-position guys like Zobrist and Baez around(plus Russell anchoring SS so those guys can roam).

In other words, I'm perfectly fine with Happ and would hand him a starting spot in a second if one were available, but the other options present higher ceilings and similar floors with a bit less risk, so I think dealing him now is maximizing his value.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Backtobanks » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:02 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season. Schwarber continuing his career offense(excluding pre-demotion 2017) and defense is a near 4 win LF. Almora's second half at the plate with his known defensive capabilities is a 3+ win hitter. That possibility exists for Happ, but I think the odds of him regressing and having those contact issues catch up to him outweigh that possibility. Happ's positional flexibility is great too, but it means a bit less when you have someone like Heyward capable of sliding to CF and multi-position guys like Zobrist and Baez around(plus Russell anchoring SS so those guys can roam).

In other words, I'm perfectly fine with Happ and would hand him a starting spot in a second if one were available, but the other options present higher ceilings and similar floors with a bit less risk, so I think dealing him now is maximizing his value.


I don't know where you get Schwarber being near 4 WAR because baseball reference has him at 0 for 2017 and 1.1 for his career. I agree that Almora can be a 3+ CF. You might be right about Happ being a 2-3 player and being as good as it gets. I just don't understand posters willing to be patient with the youth offensive flaws of Russell, Schwarber, etc., but aren't willing to see what Happ can do. The potential of a 30+ HR, switch-hitting, fast, versatile 23year old is not something to quickly dismiss.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:14 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season. Schwarber continuing his career offense(excluding pre-demotion 2017) and defense is a near 4 win LF. Almora's second half at the plate with his known defensive capabilities is a 3+ win hitter. That possibility exists for Happ, but I think the odds of him regressing and having those contact issues catch up to him outweigh that possibility. Happ's positional flexibility is great too, but it means a bit less when you have someone like Heyward capable of sliding to CF and multi-position guys like Zobrist and Baez around(plus Russell anchoring SS so those guys can roam).

In other words, I'm perfectly fine with Happ and would hand him a starting spot in a second if one were available, but the other options present higher ceilings and similar floors with a bit less risk, so I think dealing him now is maximizing his value.


I don't know where you get Schwarber being near 4 WAR because baseball reference has him at 0 for 2017 and 1.1 for his career. I agree that Almora can be a 3+ CF. You might be right about Happ being a 2-3 player and being as good as it gets. I just don't understand posters willing to be patient with the youth offensive flaws of Russell, Schwarber, etc., but aren't willing to see what Happ can do. The potential of a 30+ HR, switch-hitting, fast, versatile 23year old is not something to quickly dismiss.


Fangraphs has him at 1.8 wins in just 69 games in 2015. That is nice. Expand that to 150 games and that's 3.9 win pace. Last year was just 1.5 but was a year after missing the entire season with an injury, was still his first full season and he was demoted for multiple weeks and when he came back up was basically a platoon bat.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby javy knows my name » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:19 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season


I don't know where you get Schwarber being near 4 WAR because baseball reference has him at 0 for 2017 and 1.1 for his career. I agree that Almora can be a 3+ CF. You might be right about Happ being a 2-3 player and being as good as it gets. I just don't understand posters willing to be patient with the youth offensive flaws of Russell, Schwarber, etc., but aren't willing to see what Happ can do. The potential of a 30+ HR, switch-hitting, fast, versatile 23year old is not something to quickly dismiss.


I feel like you missed this
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neely wrote:but in reality
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby KingCubsFan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 3:34 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season. Schwarber continuing his career offense(excluding pre-demotion 2017) and defense is a near 4 win LF. Almora's second half at the plate with his known defensive capabilities is a 3+ win hitter. That possibility exists for Happ, but I think the odds of him regressing and having those contact issues catch up to him outweigh that possibility. Happ's positional flexibility is great too, but it means a bit less when you have someone like Heyward capable of sliding to CF and multi-position guys like Zobrist and Baez around(plus Russell anchoring SS so those guys can roam).

In other words, I'm perfectly fine with Happ and would hand him a starting spot in a second if one were available, but the other options present higher ceilings and similar floors with a bit less risk, so I think dealing him now is maximizing his value.


I don't know where you get Schwarber being near 4 WAR because baseball reference has him at 0 for 2017 and 1.1 for his career. I agree that Almora can be a 3+ CF. You might be right about Happ being a 2-3 player and being as good as it gets. I just don't understand posters willing to be patient with the youth offensive flaws of Russell, Schwarber, etc., but aren't willing to see what Happ can do. The potential of a 30+ HR, switch-hitting, fast, versatile 23year old is not something to quickly dismiss.

Russell and Schwarber have higher offensive ceilings than Happ, which is why I'd rather keep them. And if I'm choosing between two young 2B with power and contact issues, give me Javy.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:45 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Here's my thought on Happ. What are the odds that he's much better than he was last year? He could improve his K rate a bit and hit for a higher average, but I think the 2-3 win production you get from him is as good as it gets. That's plenty valuable and shouldn't be given away, but this offense is filled with guys who are showing similar floors while having higher ceilings. Russell has already had a 4 win season. Schwarber continuing his career offense(excluding pre-demotion 2017) and defense is a near 4 win LF. Almora's second half at the plate with his known defensive capabilities is a 3+ win hitter. That possibility exists for Happ, but I think the odds of him regressing and having those contact issues catch up to him outweigh that possibility. Happ's positional flexibility is great too, but it means a bit less when you have someone like Heyward capable of sliding to CF and multi-position guys like Zobrist and Baez around(plus Russell anchoring SS so those guys can roam).

In other words, I'm perfectly fine with Happ and would hand him a starting spot in a second if one were available, but the other options present higher ceilings and similar floors with a bit less risk, so I think dealing him now is maximizing his value.


I don't know where you get Schwarber being near 4 WAR because baseball reference has him at 0 for 2017 and 1.1 for his career. I agree that Almora can be a 3+ CF. You might be right about Happ being a 2-3 player and being as good as it gets. I just don't understand posters willing to be patient with the youth offensive flaws of Russell, Schwarber, etc., but aren't willing to see what Happ can do. The potential of a 30+ HR, switch-hitting, fast, versatile 23year old is not something to quickly dismiss.


Fangraphs has him at 1.8 wins in just 69 games in 2015. That is nice. Expand that to 150 games and that's 3.9 win pace. Last year was just 1.5 but was a year after missing the entire season with an injury, was still his first full season and he was demoted for multiple weeks and when he came back up was basically a platoon bat.


This is supposed to make us feel .... better .... about Schwarber?
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:55 pm

Schwarber aside from the start of 2017 has run about a .365 wOBA. He has a career +5 UZR in the OF, but let's play it conservative since DRS disagrees and knock him down to -5. That's basically Domingo Santana, who put up a 3.3 fWAR this year, so any offensive improvement or having him actually be a non-negative fielder puts him on the doorstep of 4 wins. Schwarber is a very good hitter, and while he sometimes looks awkward defensively(like when Castro would sometimes kick easy ground balls), he's a perfectly normal defensive LF.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:06 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Schwarber aside from the start of 2017 has run about a .365 wOBA. He has a career +5 UZR in the OF, but let's play it conservative since DRS disagrees and knock him down to -5. That's basically Domingo Santana, who put up a 3.3 fWAR this year, so any offensive improvement or having him actually be a non-negative fielder puts him on the doorstep of 4 wins. Schwarber is a very good hitter, and while he sometimes looks awkward defensively(like when Castro would sometimes kick easy ground balls), he's a perfectly normal defensive LF.


This is pretty much where I'm at with Schwarber.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby javy knows my name » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:08 pm

Stupid question: if we assume breakeven defense for Schwarber in left, that would make him more valuable there than as a DH elsewhere, correct?
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:26 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
I don't know where you get Schwarber being near 4 WAR because baseball reference has him at 0 for 2017 and 1.1 for his career. I agree that Almora can be a 3+ CF. You might be right about Happ being a 2-3 player and being as good as it gets. I just don't understand posters willing to be patient with the youth offensive flaws of Russell, Schwarber, etc., but aren't willing to see what Happ can do. The potential of a 30+ HR, switch-hitting, fast, versatile 23year old is not something to quickly dismiss.


Fangraphs has him at 1.8 wins in just 69 games in 2015. That is nice. Expand that to 150 games and that's 3.9 win pace. Last year was just 1.5 but was a year after missing the entire season with an injury, was still his first full season and he was demoted for multiple weeks and when he came back up was basically a platoon bat.


This is supposed to make us feel .... better .... about Schwarber?


Not necessarily, but Backtobanks was calling out TT's estimation of Schwarber potentially being a 4 WAR player. Just showing he's played at that pace before. Can he play at that pace for a full season? He will probably have to start hitting lefthanders at a minimum. But its possible based on what we've seen. I'd be ecstatic if Schwarber was worth 4 wins next year.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:34 pm

lol i love when he does this



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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby davell » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:55 pm

Miles Mikolas is becoming intriguing. But, it may be because his nickname is The Lizard King.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:49 pm

I normally don’t pass along rumors from this particular person because he seems to have the same type of reputation that Sean Sears does on Twitter, but since he is actually placing a timeline on it and another person backed him up I felt like It was worth posting...take with a grain of salt though..

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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby David » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:51 pm

in hot stove season you can post all the horsefeathers questionably sourced rumors you want imo
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby ConstableRabbit » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:56 pm

I'm hearing the same. Situation is fluid.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:56 pm

David wrote:in hot stove season you can post all the horsefeathers questionably sourced rumors you want imo

Yeah bring em on, these are the best/worst part of this time of year
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:03 pm

trading for bounce back closers a year from free agency and then QOing them is the new market efficiency

that's a joke but maybe kinda not
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:08 pm

If it is just Britton (if it's a larger deal, Gausmen, Bundy, etc. I'd get it) I'd be pretty surprised and upset if it's any of the rumored guys from the ML roster going for him, especially this early in the offseason.
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Re: Cubs Offseason Rumors

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:11 pm

David wrote:in hot stove season you can post all the horsefeathers questionably sourced rumors you want imo


Well normally the rumors ive seen from him and Sears are rehashed stuff from the beat and national guys. Those are not worth posting other than to make fun of them.
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