Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers

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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby UMFan83 » Mon May 21, 2018 10:07 pm

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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Agony and Ivy » Mon May 21, 2018 10:43 pm

UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/cemma670/status/998678587707416576?s=21


Bryce and Machado will be in a reverse bidding war until Theo can sign both of them.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon May 21, 2018 10:57 pm

Agony and Ivy wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/cemma670/status/998678587707416576?s=21


Bryce and Machado will be in a reverse bidding war until Theo can sign both of them.

Drafting superstar FA’s best friends on your team that clocks are 3-5 years behind in order for the superstar FAs to take discounts to play with their friends is thinking on a Sternsian level of 800-D chess
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Agony and Ivy » Mon May 21, 2018 11:24 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Agony and Ivy wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:https://twitter.com/cemma670/status/998678587707416576?s=21


Bryce and Machado will be in a reverse bidding war until Theo can sign both of them.

Drafting superstar FA’s best friends on your team that clocks are 3-5 years behind in order for the superstar FAs to take discounts to play with their friends is thinking on a Sternsian level of 800-D chess


Stearns has built a roster of future in-laws of superstars who will be free agents in 2031. Your move Theo.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Perd » Mon May 21, 2018 11:59 pm

Having players that are good friends with the best players in the league, one of whom is also one of the best players in the league, is the new market inefffficency.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Regular Show » Tue May 22, 2018 12:25 am

Perd wrote:Having players that are good friends with the best players in the league, one of whom is also one of the best players in the league, is the new market inefffficency.


Damn, I was just about to make this joke (new market inefficiency and all). Well done. I'll be going now...

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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby treebird » Tue May 22, 2018 12:56 am

Perd wrote:Having players that are good friends with the best players in the league, one of whom is also one of the best players in the league, is the new market inefffficency.


this is fine but if you want me to click the like you gotta do the perd voice
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby javy knows my name » Tue May 22, 2018 1:09 am

treebird wrote:
Perd wrote:Having players that are good friends with the best players in the league, one of whom is also one of the best players in the league, is the new market inefffficency.


this is fine but if you want me to click the like you gotta do the perd voice


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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Regular Show » Tue May 22, 2018 2:48 am



I don't like the bad haircut. I'm kinda digging the tiger cardigan he's wearing -- should be wearing a cubs and/or bears cardigan if he really wants to send a signal about coming here.

I'm even more perplexed about making a trade for him now.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Splendid Splinter » Tue May 22, 2018 3:00 am

Regular Show wrote:

I don't like the bad haircut. I'm kinda digging the tiger cardigan he's wearing -- should be wearing a cubs and/or bears cardigan if he really wants to send a signal about coming here.

I'm even more perplexed about making a trade for him now.


I can't get past his ear.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue May 22, 2018 3:01 am

Not only is Bryce a better baseball player he’s also a better dresser and has better hair than Machado
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Duke Silver » Tue May 22, 2018 3:26 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Not only is Bryce a better baseball player he’s also a better dresser and has better hair than Machado


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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue May 22, 2018 4:46 pm

Part of the narrative with the flood of Machado articles yesterday is the Cubs offense is too boom or bust. Which, I don't know if there's any information or metrics out there that are readily available that measures it but if I had to guess the Cubs offense is no more boom or busty than any other team. It's baseball and I'd venture to guess most teams land with more games between 0 to 3 runs and then 5-6+ runs than just consistently hitting around their average of 4-5 runs a game. I don't want to take the time to figure it all out but I'd bet if you took the time to do the mean, variance, SD of every team we'd rank in the middle or at the top of baseball for variance and most of our runs being within 1 SD of the mean and really aren't all that boom or bust relative to the league.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue May 22, 2018 4:59 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Part of the narrative with the flood of Machado articles yesterday is the Cubs offense is too boom or bust. Which, I don't know if there's any information or metrics out there that are readily available that measures it but if I had to guess the Cubs offense is no more boom or busty than any other team. It's baseball and I'd venture to guess most teams land with more games between 0 to 3 runs and then 5-6+ runs than just consistently hitting around their average of 4-5 runs a game. I don't want to take the time to figure it all out but I'd bet if you took the time to do the mean, variance, SD of every team we'd rank in the middle or at the top of baseball for variance and most of our runs being within 1 SD of the mean and really aren't all that boom or bust relative to the league.


Sharma covered this today: https://theathletic.com/363985/2018/05/ ... -baseball/

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So it is true that they're more boom/bust so far. However people made similar complaints about the 2017 Cubs and they finished the year just fine in that regard.

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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Tim » Tue May 22, 2018 5:04 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Part of the narrative with the flood of Machado articles yesterday is the Cubs offense is too boom or bust. Which, I don't know if there's any information or metrics out there that are readily available that measures it but if I had to guess the Cubs offense is no more boom or busty than any other team. It's baseball and I'd venture to guess most teams land with more games between 0 to 3 runs and then 5-6+ runs than just consistently hitting around their average of 4-5 runs a game. I don't want to take the time to figure it all out but I'd bet if you took the time to do the mean, variance, SD of every team we'd rank in the middle or at the top of baseball for variance and most of our runs being within 1 SD of the mean and really aren't all that boom or bust relative to the league.


Sharma covered this today: https://theathletic.com/363985/2018/05/ ... -baseball/

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So it is true that they're more boom/bust so far. However people made similar complaints about the 2017 Cubs and they finished the year just fine in that regard.

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His analysis was pretty flawed.

Sharma is comparing the variability for a single team to that of 10 teams combined. Of course that distribution will look more smooth. There really isn't any reason to expect that dip at around 4-5 runs to continue. It will normalize just like it did last year (as you point out).
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue May 22, 2018 5:05 pm

Thanks TT, looking at the charts and reading the article then I guess I’m wrong a little about this year. But since this is basically the same offense as last year and looking at that chart my hunch was somewhat right that they pretty much have a normal distribution/variance/volatility/whatever when compared to other teams.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Duke Silver » Tue May 22, 2018 5:06 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Part of the narrative with the flood of Machado articles yesterday is the Cubs offense is too boom or bust. Which, I don't know if there's any information or metrics out there that are readily available that measures it but if I had to guess the Cubs offense is no more boom or busty than any other team. It's baseball and I'd venture to guess most teams land with more games between 0 to 3 runs and then 5-6+ runs than just consistently hitting around their average of 4-5 runs a game. I don't want to take the time to figure it all out but I'd bet if you took the time to do the mean, variance, SD of every team we'd rank in the middle or at the top of baseball for variance and most of our runs being within 1 SD of the mean and really aren't all that boom or bust relative to the league.


We’re only more boom-or-bust because we’re more boomy. Everyone goes through the rough times occasionally. But not everyone can put up 10 as easily as we can. If your boom is 6 and your bust is 0, you won’t notice it as much as if your boom is 11 and your bust is 1.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Duke Silver » Tue May 22, 2018 5:09 pm

Yeah we’ve played a quarter of a season. It will look normal when the sample is larger.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue May 22, 2018 5:10 pm

Tim wrote:His analysis was pretty flawed.

Sharma is comparing the variability for a single team to that of 10 teams combined. Of course that distribution will look more smooth. There really isn't any reason to expect that dip at around 4-5 runs to continue. It will normalize just like it did last year (as you point out).


It's imperfect, and done to save time for half an article and to make visualization easier, but it doesn't invalidate the idea that the Cubs in 2018 have had more peaks and valleys than offenses of that caliber. I do expect it to normalize though, he undersells the likelihood of variance over the course of 40 games, especially this year with so much inconsistency of circumstances with rain and temperature.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Bertz » Tue May 22, 2018 5:13 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Part of the narrative with the flood of Machado articles yesterday is the Cubs offense is too boom or bust. Which, I don't know if there's any information or metrics out there that are readily available that measures it but if I had to guess the Cubs offense is no more boom or busty than any other team. It's baseball and I'd venture to guess most teams land with more games between 0 to 3 runs and then 5-6+ runs than just consistently hitting around their average of 4-5 runs a game. I don't want to take the time to figure it all out but I'd bet if you took the time to do the mean, variance, SD of every team we'd rank in the middle or at the top of baseball for variance and most of our runs being within 1 SD of the mean and really aren't all that boom or bust relative to the league.


Sahadev Sharma had a thing in the Athletic about this today. The Cubs actually have been inordinately inconsistent this year. He went on to point out though, everyone horsefeathered about last year's team for the same reason, and overall they ended up pretty normal. It's probably just SSS, made even more noticeable by the histrionics of the beat writers.

Edit: Beaten...by like 10 minutes. Dammit Bertz, this is why you don't write 90% of a post and then go grab a snack.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Tue May 22, 2018 10:05 pm

O's Hangout, didn't notice Big Bird (was that his handle?) in the thread, but I just skimmed it so possible I missed him.

Cubs rumored to have deal (offer) for Manny
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby ConstableRabbit » Tue May 22, 2018 10:07 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:O's Hangout, didn't notice Big Bird (was that his handle?) in the thread, but I just skimmed it so possible I missed him.

Cubs rumored to have deal (offer) for Manny

So you're telling me that the rumor is Baez and Monty for Manny... and the O's fans are saying no deal?
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue May 22, 2018 10:18 pm

I wouldn't want to trade Baez for Machado even if it literally guaranteed winning the World Series this year.
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue May 22, 2018 10:21 pm

Boy are their expectations going to be shattered with the end return. He’s not going to bring back much more than JD Martinez last year, which was 3 very average prospects and only 1 was top 100 (but not 50, iirc).


If we get him it honestly going to be something hilarious like Caritini, Bote, Hatch (or whatever the hell minor league pitching fodder they want) and some low level lottery ticket. We’ll probably end up with Britton and IFA money too
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Re: Orioles are shopping Machado and the Cubs are interested per Gordo

Postby Regular Show » Tue May 22, 2018 10:51 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Boy are their expectations going to be shattered with the end return. He’s not going to bring back much more than JD Martinez last year, which was 3 very average prospects and only 1 was top 100 (but not 50, iirc).


If we get him it honestly going to be something hilarious like Caritini, Bote, Hatch (or whatever the hell minor league pitching fodder they want) and some low level lottery ticket. We’ll probably end up with Britton and IFA money too


They aren't trading us Machado (and Britton and IFA money) for Caratini, Bote, minor league pitching fodder, and some other minor prospects. Sorry, but he's going to get a better return than JD Martinez got last year.

Baltimore does seem like a pretty dumb organization so they might prioritize big-league ready prospects like Bote over better prospects that are further away.
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