The Manny Machado Thread

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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby toonsterwu » Fri May 25, 2018 8:56 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:guys no one is taking jason heyward off our hands. he is a millstone around our necks and the rest of the league knows it.

We're gonna end up doing something like Russell, Heyward and some combo of Monty, Caritini, Alzolay, Bote, etc to SD for Hand and them paying some chunk of Heyward's contract and then we are going sign Machado and Harper this offseason.


I'd be somewhat surprised if San Diego dealt Brad Hand this year, and I'd be somewhat stunned if they dealt him and it wasn't a king's ransom type of deal. He's affordable for next year, he's signed down for 2 more years, and they view themselves as a club on the upswing, with an improving farm. The addition of Heyward's contract, unless we are paying a huge majority of it, would seem like a deterrent, particularly since so many teams are likely to be searching for pen additions. Who knows, though.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby SeldomSeen » Mon May 28, 2018 3:17 pm

Can he pitch?
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Backtobanks » Mon May 28, 2018 3:49 pm

SeldomSeen wrote:Can he pitch?


Probably good enough to be in the middle/back of our rotation.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:52 pm

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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:09 pm

ooh, now do offense!
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:20 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:ooh, now do offense!


Russell wRC+ 95
Machado wRC+ 153
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby champaignchris » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:30 pm

It’s kind of weird that Machado is less valuable as a shortstop than as a 3rd baseman, but it looks like his defense there is just that bad.

bWAR, he and Russell have both put up 1.9 WAR seasons thus far. fWAR is 2.8 to 1.4. Even if you trust fWAR more than bWAR, that’s not enough difference to trade straight up, let alone Russell+ for half a year of Machado.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:34 pm

champaignchris wrote:It’s kind of weird that Machado is less valuable as a shortstop than as a 3rd baseman, but it looks like his defense there is just that bad.


How is that weird? He’s moving from the 4th or 5th hardest position to the hardest/most valuable for defense and he’s failing miserable at it. He isn’t a SS and the data is pretty clear on that.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:38 pm

I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:45 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.


Image

Slap hitting, average'ish defensive COF'er just won't fly.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:48 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.

I’d rather have the guy who’s better at baseball
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Banedon » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:04 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.


Tim how do I delete all of the hearts I've ever given Sammy?
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:10 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.


Image

Slap hitting, average'ish defensive COF'er just won't fly.


I love/hate this meme.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Fri Jun 15, 2018 6:46 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I still kinda would rather sign Machado for 3B and move Bryant to RF than sign Harper.


i kinda feel the same way in an even smaller jokerman font
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:13 pm

I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:27 pm

when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman or punt SS defense entirely when you have multiple other options there, you gotta do it
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:28 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

We’re signing the bat and not the defense is how I’m looking at it and Harper is just better at everything offensively. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it but Harper is just such a better hitter and I don’t care about the defense much (which makes the value close from a WAR perspective up to this point). A lot of Machado’s career WAR is tied up in defensive value at 3B. Bryant is plenty good there and it’s a marginal improvement on the defense and Bryant is a better hitter, Machado is ass at SS and Javy is probably better at 2B. This is a pure bat play for me since the defense is already great on the infield.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:32 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:30 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman


This seems even more debatable.

But again...willing to learn.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:32 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman


This seems even more debatable.


I will cut you
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:34 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

We’re signing the bat and not the defense is how I’m looking at it and Harper is just better at everything offensively. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it but Harper is just such a better hitter


Is he......?

I know I'm opening myself up to be torn to shreds, but again, just doing a quick Fangraphs glance at the two of them it still doesn't seem like this crazy talent/value gap between them. Like, it feels kinda like this perception is based so much on Harper's insane 2015, which, hey, that's a thing that happened! I'm not saying ignore it, but....

Again, it's not like I'd think signing Harper would be a bad thing, but I guess I just kinda want to be sold that Harper is a such a, "d'uh, OF COURSE" kind of signing over Machado.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Banedon » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:35 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman


This seems even more debatable.

But again...willing to learn.


Are you arguing that Machado is a better 3rd baseman than Bryant?
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:36 pm

i mean harper and machado are so alike (flukey injuries, this weird one year on one year off thing both do) that you probably wanna go for the higher ceiling guy in harper and just call it a day, but something about his last five years just bothers me. I'm sure it's just the concept of giving $300 million to a guy who has had one great year, a really good year broken up by injuries and then just a couple heyward seasons tossed in.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:39 pm

Banedon wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:when you get the chance to pay a jillion dollars for a guy to either be your 2nd best 3rd baseman


This seems even more debatable.

But again...willing to learn.


Are you arguing that Machado is a better 3rd baseman than Bryant?


Defensively? Yes...I feel really nervous as to why this would be controversial, like I'm missing something painfully obvious.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:41 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:i mean harper and machado are so alike (flukey injuries, this weird one year on one year off thing both do) that you probably wanna go for the higher ceiling guy in harper and just call it a day, but something about his last five years just bothers me. I'm sure it's just the concept of giving $300 million to a guy who has had one great year, a really good year broken up by injuries and then just a couple heyward seasons tossed in.


Yeah, it's this kinda stuff, plus that he's generally talked about here like the Cubs would be a lock to be signing basically the next best thing to Trout, which seems to be overstating things just a wee bit.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:43 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I mean, obviously I wouldn't be bummed if they signed Harper, but to my super dumb eye there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado (and it all hinges on most definitely NOT signing Machado with the idea of him playing SS). BUT....I am always willing to learn!

We’re signing the bat and not the defense is how I’m looking at it and Harper is just better at everything offensively. I know that’s a flawed way to look at it but Harper is just such a better hitter


Is he......?

I know I'm opening myself up to be torn to shreds, but again, just doing a quick Fangraphs glance at the two of them it still doesn't seem like this crazy talent/value gap between them. Like, it feels kinda like this perception is based so much on Harper's insane 2015, which, hey, that's a thing that happened! I'm not saying ignore it, but....

Again, it's not like I'd think signing Harper would be a bad thing, but I guess I just kinda want to be sold that Harper is a such a, "d'uh, OF COURSE" kind of signing over Machado.

Uh, yes.

Things Bryce Harper does better offensively than Manny Machado:

- Walk/Get on Base (14% vs 7% career BB Rate, .385 vs .333 career OBPs, .385 wOBA vs .348)
- Hit for Power ( .514 vs .484 SLG %, .234 vs .203 ISO, ~5% more medium and hard contact in his career, ~5% more line drives)
- Batting Average is a wash


The only thing Machado does better is K a little less and also Bryce hasn't blown out his knee twice.
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