Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers

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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:47 pm

So why does Fangraphs seemingly not view there to be a huge difference between their value offensively (again, minus Harper's bat horsefeathers bonkers 2015)?

This largely seems like, as mentioned, the appeal of Harper's ceiling more than anything. Which, hey, makes sense! I just don't think signing Machado instead is this terrible consolation prize.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 7:56 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:So why does Fangraphs seemingly not view there to be a huge difference between their value offensively (again, minus Harper's bat horsefeathers bonkers 2015)?

This largely seems like, as mentioned, the appeal of Harper's ceiling more than anything. Which, hey, makes sense! I just don't think signing Machado instead is this terrible consolation prize.


Both really came into their own offensively in 2015.

wOBA

Harper
15: .461
16: .343 (injury shortened)
17: .416 (injury shortened)
18: .361 (as discussed elsewhere, this looks likely to jump higher)
ZiPS Rest of Season: .389
Career: .381

Machado
15: .370
16: .366
17: .328
18: .395
ZiPS Rest of Season: .359
Career: .348

Machado is only equivalent with the bat if you think his first 10 weeks of 2018 are the new norm indefinitely. Considering Machado's defense is no longer a value add at all(which coincided with him maturing physically and his offense taking off), there's no reason to consider the overall package better unless you make that assumption either.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:06 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:So why does Fangraphs seemingly not view there to be a huge difference between their value offensively (again, minus Harper's bat horsefeathers bonkers 2015)?

This largely seems like, as mentioned, the appeal of Harper's ceiling more than anything. Which, hey, makes sense! I just don't think signing Machado instead is this terrible consolation prize.


Both really came into their own offensively in 2015.

wOBA

Harper
15: .461
16: .343 (injury shortened)
17: .416 (injury shortened)
18: .361 (as discussed elsewhere, this looks likely to jump higher)
ZiPS Rest of Season: .389
Career: .381

Machado
15: .370
16: .366
17: .328
18: .395
ZiPS Rest of Season: .359
Career: .348

Machado is only equivalent with the bat if you think his first 10 weeks of 2018 are the new norm indefinitely. Considering Machado's defense is no longer a value add at all(which coincided with him maturing physically and his offense taking off), there's no reason to consider the overall package better unless you make that assumption either.


Ah, but I don't think they're equivalent offensively.

there doesn't seem to be this yawning gap of talent/value between the two that makes Harper such a slam dunk obvious choice over Machado


I was never saying that Harper wasn't technically the better choice; I'm just not really sold as him being this OBVIOUSLY, significantly better option worth a no doubt historic contract (I mean, I'm kind of assuming he's going to get a LOT more than Machado, so maybe I'm wrong there), and, to be honest, what you're posting doesn't really dissuade me of that.

I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?

Bonus dumb question: how much better would Bryant be in RF than Bryant there?
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:11 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?


I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:15 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?


I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

Yeah this is how I feel. With him proving not to be a SS at all I really don’t care to get him.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Derwood » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:15 pm

Machado is going to the Yankees so....
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:19 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I guess I'll ask it this way: is anyone here looking it as a "Harper or bust" kind of situation? Like, would it be a huge disappointment/downgrade to have to "settle" for Machado instead?


I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

Yeah this is how I feel. With him proving not to be a SS at all I really don’t care to get him.


Fair enough (from both of you).

I'd technically prefer Harper, but I like Machado a lot, and would like to think Theo and co. have him in mind as a backup plan if they can't work things out with Harper or change their mind about him.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:24 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
I will admit to less than 100% rationality, but I would be bitterly disappointed with Machado. I don't believe in his bat, I don't believe in his glove, and adding him requires doing suboptimal things with other core players.

Or let's put this another way, I expect Machado to be a .360ish wOBA guy with average defense at 3B, and unplayable at SS. That's Travis Shaw/Mike Moustakas caliber.

Yeah this is how I feel. With him proving not to be a SS at all I really don’t care to get him.


Fair enough (from both of you).

I'd technically prefer Harper, but I like Machado a lot, and would like to think Theo and co. have him in mind as a backup plan if they can't work things out with Harper or change their mind about him.

I really hope he’s not a plan of any sort. It’s Bryce or bust for the big $$$ guy and if he goes elsewhere stand pat mostly. I’d maybe go spend biggish on Britton or Miller but I’d just pass overall on spending big for any non-Bryce FA and just do a smaller bullpen add or 2, backup catcher and do like a Smyly signing if there’s a guy like that out there and then maybe look at a Willy, Russell (if he shows improvement) or Rizzo extension.
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:35 pm

I would definitely rather have Machado over Rizzo (not that this head to head really makes any sense).

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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby mul21 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:18 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I would definitely rather have Machado over Rizzo (not that this head to head really makes any sense).

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I’m going to need to see some sTAR calculations to prove this (sofa Tinyface Above Replacement).
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:42 pm

Has Machado *really* beyond a shadow of a doubt proven he can not play SS? Defensive stats like UZR and DRS require multiple (2-3+) years of sample rather than a couple months...I definitely prefer Harper by a huge margin but view Machado as a stud too.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:54 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Has Machado *really* beyond a shadow of a doubt proven he can not play SS? Defensive stats like UZR and DRS require multiple (2-3+) years of sample rather than a couple months...I definitely prefer Harper by a huge margin but view Machado as a stud too.


This year makes 3 of 4 years(not so coincidentally matching the start of his power surge/physical maturity) where he’s been average at 3B, poor at SS, or both. I’m open to the idea that a team can be optimistic and think of him as a primary backup, filling in a few games a year or maybe for a DL stint, but someone sinking big dollars into Machado as a primary shortstop is making a mistake.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:35 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:This year makes 3 of 4 years(not so coincidentally matching the start of his power surge/physical maturity) where he’s been average at 3B, poor at SS, or both. I’m open to the idea that a team can be optimistic and think of him as a primary backup, filling in a few games a year or maybe for a DL stint, but someone sinking big dollars into Machado as a primary shortstop is making a mistake.


Since I tend to read and interpret UZR and DRS in 3 year blocks, my take is solidly above average 3B (which falls in line both with his reputation and what I think I see watching him play) and still rolling but probably below average SS. He's probably not a +20 run 3B like in whatever year that was for instance but likely, if fully focused, closer to that +10 per 150 he's at for his career. I also look at how the bat plays at SS - he's at .293/.363/.557 in 460 PAs as a SS - and kinda make note that the position doesn't negatively affect his bat.

There's also some parralels with Dexter Fowler....Fowler was one of the worst CFs in baseball by the advanced metrics but made the routine plays, was where most were with the slightly more difficult plays, and things worked out with the Cubs getting to keep his bat where it was most valuable. Machado nails the routine (96-97%), is about 70% with the likely plays, and is 50/50 with the 50/50 plays.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:30 am



The Orioles have received offers from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians and Chicago Cubs, and the offers rank in that order of appeal, according to the source.

All the offers are said to be “very close” in appeal according to the source. Several other teams have checked in on Machado.

...

The players in the Dodgers’ offer to the Orioles are unknown, but their current offer did not include either top prospect outfielder Alex Verdugo or right-hander Yadier Álvarez.

The Orioles expressed interest in Verdugo and his name was discussed in talks between the teams, but Álvarez’s name was only bantered about briefly, the source said. Verdugo is ranked as the Dodgers’ second-best prospect, according to Baseball America, and Alvarez is ranked fifth.

Still, the Orioles’ desire is to acquire the top prospects or young controllable players available — with an emphasis on pitching and left-side infielders — in exchange for Machado.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:46 am

What does it say about the Yankees that they're not even on the list? Obviously these are just rumors, but I have to think there's a good shot that whoever trades for Machado will likely try really hard to sign him long term. Machado has been assumed to be the big FA target for the Yankees in the offseason; are they just assuming they'll be able to lure him away from wherever he's traded to? Or does this mean maybe they prefer Harper?
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:53 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:What does it say about the Yankees that they're not even on the list? Obviously these are just rumors, but I have to think there's a good shot that whoever trades for Machado will likely try really hard to sign him long term. Machado has been assumed to be the big FA target for the Yankees in the offseason; are they just assuming they'll be able to lure him away from wherever he's traded to? Or does this mean maybe they prefer Harper?


The Orioles’ reputation suggests they won’t trade him in-division or to the Nationals.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:59 am

Oh, that Angelos.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:13 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:What does it say about the Yankees that they're not even on the list? Obviously these are just rumors, but I have to think there's a good shot that whoever trades for Machado will likely try really hard to sign him long term. Machado has been assumed to be the big FA target for the Yankees in the offseason; are they just assuming they'll be able to lure him away from wherever he's traded to? Or does this mean maybe they prefer Harper?


The Orioles’ reputation suggests they won’t trade him in-division or to the Nationals.

Yeah the Orioles might literally have the Yankees numbers blocked.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby PackLandVA » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:25 am

Wouldn’t mind seeing the Cards or Dodgers lose a couple top prospects for a rental.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:00 am

If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:11 am

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there


They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby Duke Silver » Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:14 am

Give them Chatwood.
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:45 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there


They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.


yeah good point the dodgers are pretty frugal
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:51 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:If the dodgers trade for him you can bet he re-signs there


They do have Turner and Seager still, but more importantly, Friedman would rather throw his first born into a volcano than give a 9 figure contract.


yeah good point the dodgers are pretty frugal
the owners are under investigation for financial shenanigans
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Re: The Manny Machado Thread

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:52 pm

sounds made up
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