Manny Machado Traded to the Dodgers

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5723
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 4
x 71

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Tryptamine » Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:32 pm

Losing 4 Years of Russell, for 1 year of Machado and then a 300+M FA contract in 2019, vs keeping 4 years of Russell and spending 350-400M on Harper. Pretty much a no brainer from my side.
6 x

Backtobanks
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6382
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 2:32 am
x 4
x 13

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Backtobanks » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:25 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Losing 4 Years of Russell, for 1 year of Machado and then a 300+M FA contract in 2019, vs keeping 4 years of Russell and spending 350-400M on Harper. Pretty much a no brainer from my side.


Of course that's assuming Harper accepts our offer over the 4 or 5 other $400 million offers on the table.
0 x

champaignchris
Starter
Posts: 722
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2008 4:40 pm
x 4
x 102

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby champaignchris » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:29 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Losing 4 Years of Russell, for 1 year of Machado and then a 300+M FA contract in 2019, vs keeping 4 years of Russell and spending 350-400M on Harper. Pretty much a no brainer from my side.


Of course that's assuming Harper accepts our offer over the 4 or 5 other $400 million offers on the table.


But then nothing would preclude the Cubs from signing Machado instead and trading Russell then. Or just keep Russel and Machado and move KB to left.
0 x

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 67680
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 920
x 1806

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Derwood » Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:51 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Losing 4 Years of Russell, for 1 year of Machado and then a 300+M FA contract in 2019, vs keeping 4 years of Russell and spending 350-400M on Harper. Pretty much a no brainer from my side.


Of course that's assuming Harper accepts our offer over the 4 or 5 other $400 million offers on the table.


No other team has his Super Vegas BFF Kris Bryant
1 x

Backtobanks
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6382
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 2:32 am
x 4
x 13

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Backtobanks » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:15 pm

champaignchris wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Losing 4 Years of Russell, for 1 year of Machado and then a 300+M FA contract in 2019, vs keeping 4 years of Russell and spending 350-400M on Harper. Pretty much a no brainer from my side.


Of course that's assuming Harper accepts our offer over the 4 or 5 other $400 million offers on the table.


But then nothing would preclude the Cubs from signing Machado instead and trading Russell then. Or just keep Russel and Machado and move KB to left.


That's true, but I think there would be a better chance of extending Machado (after being on the team) than bidding on him as a FA.
0 x

CubinNY
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22207
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 5:52 pm
Location: Pike Road, Al
x 172
x 415

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby CubinNY » Sat Dec 16, 2017 8:30 pm

Backtobanks wrote:
champaignchris wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
Of course that's assuming Harper accepts our offer over the 4 or 5 other $400 million offers on the table.


But then nothing would preclude the Cubs from signing Machado instead and trading Russell then. Or just keep Russel and Machado and move KB to left.


That's true, but I think there would be a better chance of extending Machado (after being on the team) than bidding on him as a FA.

Why?
0 x

Backtobanks
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6382
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 2:32 am
x 4
x 13

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Backtobanks » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:15 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
champaignchris wrote:
But then nothing would preclude the Cubs from signing Machado instead and trading Russell then. Or just keep Russel and Machado and move KB to left.


That's true, but I think there would be a better chance of extending Machado (after being on the team) than bidding on him as a FA.

Why?


He would get to know the other players, the fans, Maddon, the city, the FO, etc. As a FA, everyone is promising everything and he might not know how he would relate to his teammates, the city, etc.
0 x

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 21863
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 5158
x 4119

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Cubswin11 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 8:30 pm

Yeah, probably shouldn’t trade that guy.

0 x
Screw Pitchers

Backtobanks
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6382
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 2:32 am
x 4
x 13

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Backtobanks » Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:00 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah, probably shouldn’t trade that guy.



Well we did trade the guy who is a couple of places behind him.
0 x

jehr
Role Player
Posts: 175
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:35 pm
x 169
x 41

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby jehr » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:19 am

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah, probably shouldn’t trade that guy.


With half of the guys on that list that are late in their careers or retired (and all but a few with WARs under 10), if you traded them around their age 24 or 25 season, you'd be trading them at peak value. With half of them, you'd regret it unless you got some exceptional value in return. That list doesn't really convince me to hold or trade.
0 x

CubinNY
Hall of Fame
Posts: 22207
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 5:52 pm
Location: Pike Road, Al
x 172
x 415

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby CubinNY » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:08 pm

jehr wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah, probably shouldn’t trade that guy.


With half of the guys on that list that are late in their careers or retired (and all but a few with WARs under 10), if you traded them around their age 24 or 25 season, you'd be trading them at peak value. With half of them, you'd regret it unless you got some exceptional value in return. That list doesn't really convince me to hold or trade.

For 1 guaranteed year of Manny or just in general?
0 x

jehr
Role Player
Posts: 175
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:35 pm
x 169
x 41

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby jehr » Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:34 pm

CubinNY wrote:
jehr wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah, probably shouldn’t trade that guy.


With half of the guys on that list that are late in their careers or retired (and all but a few with WARs under 10), if you traded them around their age 24 or 25 season, you'd be trading them at peak value. With half of them, you'd regret it unless you got some exceptional value in return. That list doesn't really convince me to hold or trade.

For 1 guaranteed year of Manny or just in general?

I wasn't debating the merits of 4 years of Russell vs 1 year of Machado... Just that the analysis that links historical comparisons to Russel's "career arc" really does nothing to better inform us of what to reasonably expect from Russel going forward, and certainly doesn't make him untradeable.

Personally, we broke the curse and got a title. The monkey is off of our backs. I prefer to see moves that better support a dynasty over short term moves. I'd trade for Machado if he agreed to an extension... But given that Angelo's won't allow a 72 hour negotiating period, I wouldn't trade Russel for him since you have to assume one year of Machado only. Maybe a prospect package centered on Albertos or something.
0 x

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5311
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 293
x 400

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:15 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Yeah, probably shouldn’t trade that guy.



Not that I’d care to actively support Russell for a rental Machado but this is about as reasonable as that article:

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/thts-fran ... cks-12-14/

He’s racked up 26 WAR in his short career. For context, 7,853 players in MLB history have accrued at least 10 plate appearances through age 24. Machado’s WAR total ranks 29th, or better than 99.6 percent of these guys.

He’s ahead of where many noteworthy players were when they were 24. To name a few:

Stan Musial
Willie Mays
Lou Gehrig
Dick Allen
Roberto Alomar
Barry Bonds
George Brett
Miguel Cabrera
Tim Raines
Ted Simmons
Orlando Cepeda
Ron Santo
Babe Ruth

If you restrict the list to third basemen, Machado jumps from 29th to second all-time, behind only Eddie Matthews.

Since he has more WAR to his name than thousands of other players did when they were his age, I was interested in Machado’s Hall of Fame chances. So I turned to Bayes’ theorem, which states:

Probability (belief given evidence) = (Probability (belief) * Probability (evidence given belief)) / Probability (evidence).

In this case:

My belief is that Machado is bound for Cooperstown
My evidence is that he’s a third baseman who’s accumulated 26 WAR through his age-24 season.
Bayes’ theorem is great because it accounts for the fact that not all the guys Machado’s ahead of, to this point in his career, are inductees. Let’s fill in the numbers, considering only players whose Hall trajectory we know because they retired in 2011 or earlier:

P(belief) is the probability that any third baseman is a Hall of Famer. Just 16 third basemen are enshrined, and 957 full-time third basemen have retired in 2011 or earlier. Therefore, P(belief) = 16/957 = .0167.
P(evidence given belief) is the probability that, given someone is a Hall of Fame third baseman, he accumulated at least 26 WAR through age 24 or younger. Of the 16 Hall of Fame third basemen, one meets these criteria: Matthews, who notched 32.1 WAR through his age-24 season. Therefore, P(evidence given belief) = 1/16 = .0625.
P(evidence) is the probability that, regardless of whether he becomes a Hall of Famer, any third baseman will accumulate at least 26 WAR through age 24 or younger. Of the 957 third basemen, only Matthews has accumulated at least this much WAR through this age. This makes P(evidence) = 1/957 = .0010.

Therefore: given Machado is a third baseman who totaled 26 WAR through age 24, his Hall of Fame probability is (.0167 * .0625) / .001. That equals 1, which represents a 100 percent Hall of Fame chance. Nothing in life is ever guaranteed, but Manny Machado’s induction chances are as high as they come.
0 x

Tryptamine
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5723
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:13 pm
x 4
x 71

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:22 pm

The knee surgeries don't bother anyone? Sure he's young, but with his bigger frame at SS and the wear and tear already on his knees I feel much less confident in his future than Harper's.
0 x

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 44635
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:02 pm
Location: Naperville, IL
x 72
x 2102
Contact:

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby Tim » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:25 pm

Tryptamine wrote:The knee surgeries don't bother anyone? Sure he's young, but with his bigger frame at SS and the wear and tear already on his knees I feel much less confident in his future than Harper's.

I'd much, much rather have Harper for a wide variety of reasons.
0 x
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
TomtheBombadil
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 5311
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 8:35 pm
x 293
x 400

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:28 pm

Oh, of course you take Harper over him. Harper’s plenty historic - guy’s playing all of next year minus playoffs at 25 with everything he has already done.
0 x

User avatar
minnesotacubsfan
Superstar
Posts: 16139
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:27 pm
Location: da Salish Sea
x 652
x 510

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:37 pm

Tim wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:The knee surgeries don't bother anyone? Sure he's young, but with his bigger frame at SS and the wear and tear already on his knees I feel much less confident in his future than Harper's.

I'd much, much rather have Harper for a wide variety of reasons.


Yea. Me too
0 x
Image

User avatar
TBS Playoffs Insider
Turdologist
Posts: 32055
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:57 am
x 2074
x 5136
Contact:

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:25 pm

If you could work out an extension for Machado, I might be willing? Angelos is a nut, but if you said "look, everyone else is offering you trash, we'll give you Russell if you give us a short window" he might be willing just to keep Machado from ending up in NY in 12 months?

Maybe that's too optimistic. I would rather have Harper than Machado, I think, but most of the concerns about Machado are the same with Harper, and it's not as easy as just saying hey let's sign Harper.
0 x

User avatar
jersey cubs fan
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 58167
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 6:38 pm
Location: Hoboken squat cobbler
x 2204
x 7254

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:27 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:If you could work out an extension for Machado, I might be willing? Angelos is a nut, but if you said "look, everyone else is offering you trash, we'll give you Russell if you give us a short window" he might be willing just to keep Machado from ending up in NY in 12 months?

Maybe that's too optimistic. I would rather have Harper than Machado, I think, but most of the concerns about Machado are the same with Harper, and it's not as easy as just saying hey let's sign Harper.


bird in hand is better than that bird in busch?
2 x
longhotsummer wrote:I realize now, any opposing viewpoint, will not be tolerated.

User avatar
TBS Playoffs Insider
Turdologist
Posts: 32055
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 7:57 am
x 2074
x 5136
Contact:

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:28 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:If you could work out an extension for Machado, I might be willing? Angelos is a nut, but if you said "look, everyone else is offering you trash, we'll give you Russell if you give us a short window" he might be willing just to keep Machado from ending up in NY in 12 months?

Maybe that's too optimistic. I would rather have Harper than Machado, I think, but most of the concerns about Machado are the same with Harper, and it's not as easy as just saying hey let's sign Harper.


bird in hand is better than that bird in busch?


write that post out just in case, like a celeb obit
0 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 60422
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 7485
x 4603

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado (and he wants to go back to SS)

Postby David » Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:11 pm



maybe a thread title edit is in order since this is the first time i've seen the cubs tied (i could've missed something) to machado via sourced rumor rather than just internet speculation

Levine was just on with bernstein and goff and threw out javy as a name he has heard rumors about being the ask.
0 x
Image

The Cubs’ transaction list under Epstein and Hoyer reads like a work of fiction, a wish-fulfillment list composed in hindsight.

Cubs Fan Dan
Starter
Posts: 964
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:15 pm
x 4

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado - (Cubs in talks per Levine)

Postby Cubs Fan Dan » Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:08 pm

I'm fine with Machado in this scenario.

Happ + Alzolay for Machado
Javy or Russell for Yelich

That's the only way I see Machado making sense.

Yelich
Bryant
Rizzo
Machado
Contreras
schwarber/zobrist
Javy/Russell(whoever is kept)
Heyward/Almora

That lineup is insanity
0 x

User avatar
Cubswin11
Hall of Fame
Posts: 21863
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:17 pm
x 5158
x 4119

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado - (Cubs in talks per Levine)

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:17 pm

I hope “we’re in this” just to drive the price up on someone unless it is part of a waterfall of events like Yelich+Britton+Gausman
Last edited by Cubswin11 on Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 x
Screw Pitchers

CaliforniaRaisin
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 90308
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2003 2:20 pm
Location: Pasadena, CA
x 557
x 2730

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado - (Cubs in talks per Levine)

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:20 pm



Image
0 x
Image

User avatar
Transmogrified Tiger
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 55500
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2003 4:23 pm
Location: Greater St. Louis
x 411
x 5620

Re: Orioles are shopping Machado - (Cubs in talks per Levine)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Dec 19, 2017 11:20 pm

Cubs Fan Dan wrote:I'm fine with Machado in this scenario.

Happ + Alzolay for Machado
Javy or Russell for Yelich

That's the only way I see Machado making sense.

Yelich
Bryant
Rizzo
Machado
Contreras
schwarber/zobrist
Javy/Russell(whoever is kept)
Heyward/Almora

That lineup is insanity


I can see the logic, but that also takes a lot of money and still leaves you with a SP need. I'm also a bit skeptical that the Marlins, payroll slashing as they are, would trade Yelich for Javy/Russell, who have the same time to FA and only provide marginal savings through arbitration(especially for Russell).

More likely I think you would see a deal for Machado and then one of the infielders going for a controlled SP, it would have to basically be Archer or Stroman for me to be excited about the prospect. You lose infield depth when Machado leaves(especially if it's Happ going for Machado), but you also get a temporary upgrade at SS, a Darvish caliber pitcher without the dollar cost, which means that when the temporary SS upgrade(and his arb salary) disappears you can go after Harper unfettered.

Machado (1 year) + Harper (increased likelihood) + Archer v. Darvish + Happ + Alzolay + Russell/Baez + remainder of Archer/Stroman package
0 x


Return to “Transactions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests