Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek for 2/$13M

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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:55 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I assume this is the last significant bullpen move, which I’m fine with as long as we don’t cheap out now on the last starter spot. Just swallow the pill and sign Cobb or Darvish


There is ZERO chance of signing Darvish. If you want Harper later, you can't have Darvish now.

Why? What’s the thinking here? We could add Darvish with staying under the LT this year.

In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:59 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:I assume this is the last significant bullpen move, which I’m fine with as long as we don’t cheap out now on the last starter spot. Just swallow the pill and sign Cobb or Darvish


There is ZERO chance of signing Darvish. If you want Harper later, you can't have Darvish now.

Why? What’s the thinking here? We could add Darvish with staying under the LT this year.


The thinking is that they are not looking to break the bank on a huge signing like that this season, provided Darvish takes six years and $25 to $30 AAV. I find it very unlikely they are going to go into 2019 with Harper at $35 to $40 Lester at $27, Darvish at $25, Heyward at $20, Zobrist at $16.5, etc.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:12 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
There is ZERO chance of signing Darvish. If you want Harper later, you can't have Darvish now.

Why? What’s the thinking here? We could add Darvish with staying under the LT this year.

In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget.


Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:19 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Why? What’s the thinking here? We could add Darvish with staying under the LT this year.

In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget.


Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years.

Yeah this is my thinking too, you also potentially lose Q and Hendricks after 2020 (maybe 2021 with Hendricks?). That's a lot of money coming off, obviously you need to replace a lot of that pitching (hopefully some can be developed from within for cheap and not all needing to be bought) but they could hit the LT reset button in 2021. Also by some divine intervention there is a possibility of a Heyward opt out the next 2 offseasons or trade (obviously would have to eat some money but could reduce the overall obligation).
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:23 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:Why? What’s the thinking here? We could add Darvish with staying under the LT this year.

In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget.


Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years.


I'd love the books as clean as possible for 2021 when we likely are going to have some big deals along with hopefully Harper already on the books. I really like all these two and three year contracts they are signing guys to. The Cubs core is already good enough to win the World Series during this window, so I'd rather not make huge, long-term commitments unless they are truly elite guys who also are still young.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget.


Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years.

Yeah this is my thinking too, you also potentially lose Q and Hendricks after 2020 (maybe 2021 with Hendricks?). That's a lot of money coming off, obviously you need to replace a lot of that pitching (hopefully some can be developed from within for cheap and not all needing to be bought) but they could hit the LT reset button in 2021. Also by some divine intervention there is a possibility of a Heyward opt out the next 2 offseasons or trade (obviously would have to eat some money but could reduce the overall obligation).


Q has an option for 2020 so he'd have to be dead to have it declined. And at that point if you've signed Darvish you've got all 5 rotation spots handled with Darvish/Q/Hendricks/Chatwood/Lester. The bullpen looks thinner, but every bullpen is gonna look shaky 2 years out and there's a high volume of pitching in the farm system that can help there. It might end up with some sub-optimal outcomes, but I don't think Darvish hurts your ability to put together the quality of team you want.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:26 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:In 2020 they will have a lot of commitments that would make it very difficult to fit Harper, Darvish and everybody else already here, into a budget.


Maybe, but they also lose Zobrist and possibly Morrow's money, with Lester and Chatwood the year after. 2 years from now you'll also have much more clarity on which of the position players you actually want to pay through arbitration(e.g. trade any/all of Schwarber, Russell, Baez if they don't improve). If they go that route you're also likely keeping Almora and Happ around, which furthers your flexibility in those years.

Yeah this is my thinking too, you also potentially lose Q and Hendricks after 2020 (maybe 2021 with Hendricks?). That's a lot of money coming off, obviously you need to replace a lot of that pitching (hopefully some can be developed from within for cheap and not all needing to be bought) but they could hit the LT reset button in 2021. Also by some diving intervention there is a possibility of a Heyward opt out the next 2 offseasons or trade (obviously would have to eat some money but could reduce the overall obligation).


"Losing" Lester, Chatwood, Morrow, Q and Hendricks' collective moneys off the payroll in 2020/2021 means you actually lose all those baseball payers to and then have to replace them all, mostly with other expensive baseball players. 30 million for Darvish and 40 million for Harper, plus a soon-to-be 30+ million for Bryant, and either a big extension for Rizzo or replacement player is going to be a tremendous burden.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:30 pm

I feel safe in saying there is no [expletive] way theo and jed are gonna give darvish 25-30 million.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:33 pm

TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:I feel safe in saying there is no [expletive] way theo and jed are gonna give darvish 25-30 million.


I feel really, really safe saying you are right for saying you feel safe.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby davell » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:35 pm

Cishek is really solid and gives the pen a different look. He's a great compliment to Morrow. The pen looks pretty damn solid. My guess is they'll still add a guy like Duke or Logan, if they're cheap. Maybe Cedeno. I wouldn't mind a guy like Jared Hughes at all, at this point either. But figure they'll grab a lefty of some sort.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Bertz » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:46 pm

Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby David » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:49 pm

Bertz wrote:Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.


Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be)

Do you hope for opt out or no opt out?

(I hope for opt out still)
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:52 pm

David wrote:
Bertz wrote:Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.


Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be)

Do you hope for opt out or no opt out?

(I hope for opt out still)


opt the horsefeathers out
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby davell » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:52 pm

David wrote:
Bertz wrote:Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.


Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be)

Do you hope for opt out or no opt out?

(I hope for opt out still)


Yeah, I'd still want him to opt out. You could have Bryce and the rest of your OF is cheap, with Almora, Happ, and Schwarber. Could use the Heyward money on pitching, at that point.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Bertz » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:55 pm

David wrote:
Bertz wrote:Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.


Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be)

Do you hope for opt out or no opt out?

(I hope for opt out still)


Probably? It might not be fair but I think at this point it would take years of consistent strong production from him for me to not think "here we go again" during any little slump.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:56 pm

David wrote:
Bertz wrote:Yeah there's no real way to make Darvish and Harper work unless we're cool with all the penalties that come from being 40+ million over the cap or Heyward rebounds enough to opt out.


Let's say Chili Davis pixie dust magically turns Heyward into a .290/.390/.500 guy next year (lmao) with still beyond elite defense in RF resulting in like a 7 win season (that's a pulled out of my ass guess at what that would be)

Do you hope for opt out or no opt out?

(I hope for opt out still)

Yes, unless we don’t get Bryce then I’d hope he stay another year then opt out then.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby BigbadB » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:05 pm

In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out? Even with a great rebound year, would he want to leave the team he has won a World Series with (maybe even a second one), and how much more money could he realistically sign for than what he is already getting with the Cubs that might not even be a playoff caliber team.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby David » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:08 pm

BigbadB wrote:In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out? Even with a great rebound year, would he want to leave the team he has won a World Series with (maybe even a second one), and how much more money could he realistically sign for than what he is already getting with the Cubs that might not even be a playoff caliber team.


it's a lot easier to say before actually witnessing the breakout/comeback season over 6 months.

look at the numbers being bandied about for 30 year old no defensive value jd martinez after an absolutely insane second half (not that he wasn't a very good hitter before that). he's looking for over $200M.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby jersey cubs fan » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:11 pm

BigbadB wrote:In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out? Even with a great rebound year, would he want to leave the team he has won a World Series with (maybe even a second one), and how much more money could he realistically sign for than what he is already getting with the Cubs that might not even be a playoff caliber team.

He'd have to have a real huge year, and even then he'd probably need Chili Davis to get hired as a manager at a big market team with a need to sign a RF. So maybe Atlanta decides to go with Chili as their manager and open the checkbook to bring back Heyward who wants to stay with Chili and return to his first team.

In other words, it's not happening.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:15 pm

BigbadB wrote:In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out? Even with a great rebound year, would he want to leave the team he has won a World Series with (maybe even a second one), and how much more money could he realistically sign for than what he is already getting with the Cubs that might not even be a playoff caliber team.

If he opts our after this season he’s leaving 5/~100 on the table and 4/~80 if he does it after 2019. He’d be 29 and 30 those 2 offseasons. So if he can show some offensive life I don’t think it would be crazy for him to get more money guaranteed if he opts out after either year. I’d say that’s not the likely outcome but can see it as a not probable possibility.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby BigbadB » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:16 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
BigbadB wrote:In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out? Even with a great rebound year, would he want to leave the team he has won a World Series with (maybe even a second one), and how much more money could he realistically sign for than what he is already getting with the Cubs that might not even be a playoff caliber team.

He'd have to have a real huge year, and even then he'd probably need Chili Davis to get hired as a manager at a big market team with a need to sign a RF. So maybe Atlanta decides to go with Chili as their manager and open the checkbook to bring back Heyward who wants to stay with Chili and return to his first team.

In other words, it's not happening.


Right! And even if he had a big year, Heyward seems like the type of stand up guy that knows he owes the Cubs for a couple of really lame years and honors his end of the contract. Why leave a team where he would likely have an even better relationship with his teammates, playing for the best front office in baseball and a playoff caliber team for the foreseeable future? Maybe there is a small window where he could opt out, but I just don't see it.

I guess he was the one who wanted the opt out clause in his contract as it is a player friendly incentive, so there's that.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:21 pm

if he does what David threw out there for the next two seasons, i could see him opting out after ‘19. But even then I wouldn’t bet on it. After one year of that level of production, no way.
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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Duke Silver » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:50 pm

davell wrote:My guess is they'll still add a guy like Duke or Logan, if they're cheap.


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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby Duke Silver » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:59 pm

BigbadB wrote:In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out?


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Re: Cubs Sign Reliever Steve Cishek

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:05 pm

BigbadB wrote:In what realistic scenario does Heyward opt out?


Theo advises Heyward that the Cubs will be acquiring the Cardinals fanbase. BOOM. Opt out.
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