It turns out the real Yu Darvish was the friends we made in this thread

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:39 pm

craig wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:This doesn't appear to be behind the paywall: https://theathletic.com/189473/2017/12/ ... st-option/


Thanks, cal, that's a good article.

What struck me as most interesting was this part:

It's that desire to stay under the luxury tax this year that may be depressing Darvish's market in general. Usual big spenders like the Dodgers and New York Yankees are dangerously close to going back over the tax for 2018, which they would prefer not to do. Staying under would allow them to avoid the suddenly harsh penalties that come with being a repeat offender. They're doing all this with their eyes squarely set on being aggressive next winter when big names like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and others will be available.

That leaves the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins as the two biggest competitors for Darvish's services, two teams hardly known for their financial might. Suddenly, the artificial salary cap is giving the Cubs an opportunity to pounce on a target once deemed too expensive or unattainable.


Not sure how subtracting Dodgers and Yankees reduces it to Twins and Astros, but Sharma is smart and it's his job to think and analyze, so perhaps he's right.

Beats me. Why not Cardinals or Giants, or Rangers or Rockies or DBacks or Red Sox or Washington or Angels or Seattle? Beats me, I don't know everybody's payrolls or team priorities....
But I'm hoping this is kinda correct, that for whatever confluence of circumstances, that Darvish's market just hasn't gone wild, and you've got a good shot to get a decent-value deal.


I don't think that part is his opinion or analysis. The Astros and Twins are just the other teams rumored to be interested, IIRC.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby craig » Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:49 pm

It's common wisdom to avoid long-term deals, particularly for pitchers. At the same time, it's common wisdom to covet club-control years. Obviously the latter particularly applies to when those club-controlled years are at favorable or at least reasonable price, and also where you can get out in case of debilitation injury.

But I think there is also some value in club-control just in terms of roster stability and in the ability to plan ahead. I think that *if* the Cubs got Yu, they'd have a lot of long-term contract definition. Might make it a lot easier to plan ahead and build. That's harder to do with a lot of short term expiring deals.

And that's also especially nice *IF* the long-term guy you've got ends up being good value and worth the money. Heyward, it kills you when the money is down the drain. But showing my age, Bulls had Michael Jordan on a forever long-term deal, and he was a bargain year after year. Ryne Sandberg signed a long-term deal which seemed substantial at the time, but then it became a huge bargain as inflation left it in the dust. Washington has no regrets about signing Scherzer to a long-term deal.

So it's possible that *if* Darvish signed at 5 x $25, and stayed healthy and pitched at a high level, that could end up looking like a really solid value.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby nunley15 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:03 pm

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:07 pm

David wrote:
craig wrote:Not sure how subtracting Dodgers and Yankees reduces it to Twins and Astros, but Sharma is smart and it's his job to think and analyze, so perhaps he's right.

Beats me. Why not Cardinals or Giants, or Rangers or Rockies or DBacks or Red Sox or Washington or Angels or Seattle? Beats me, I don't know everybody's payrolls or team priorities....
But I'm hoping this is kinda correct, that for whatever confluence of circumstances, that Darvish's market just hasn't gone wild, and you've got a good shot to get a decent-value deal.


I don't think that part is his opinion or analysis. The Astros and Twins are just the other teams rumored to be interested, IIRC.


Yeah, if you look at MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins seem to want to make a move for him, but everyone else's pursuit is pretty lukewarm. There's enough teams out there that his market isn't going to fall to 3/60 or something silly like that, but there's probably a sweet spot of AAV and years that scares off most of those teams that are keeping tabs but is still a fair bit less than what Darvish was expected to get in September.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:17 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
David wrote:
craig wrote:Not sure how subtracting Dodgers and Yankees reduces it to Twins and Astros, but Sharma is smart and it's his job to think and analyze, so perhaps he's right.

Beats me. Why not Cardinals or Giants, or Rangers or Rockies or DBacks or Red Sox or Washington or Angels or Seattle? Beats me, I don't know everybody's payrolls or team priorities....
But I'm hoping this is kinda correct, that for whatever confluence of circumstances, that Darvish's market just hasn't gone wild, and you've got a good shot to get a decent-value deal.


I don't think that part is his opinion or analysis. The Astros and Twins are just the other teams rumored to be interested, IIRC.


Yeah, if you look at MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins seem to want to make a move for him, but everyone else's pursuit is pretty lukewarm. There's enough teams out there that his market isn't going to fall to 3/60 or something silly like that, but there's probably a sweet spot of AAV and years that scares off most of those teams that are keeping tabs but is still a fair bit less than what Darvish was expected to get in September.


If a majority of teams are lukewarm about the top pitcher on the market, what are we now looking at Arrieta getting and does a reunion become more possible? Not saying I want it, but wondering out loud.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:20 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
David wrote:
I don't think that part is his opinion or analysis. The Astros and Twins are just the other teams rumored to be interested, IIRC.


Yeah, if you look at MLB Trade Rumors, the Twins seem to want to make a move for him, but everyone else's pursuit is pretty lukewarm. There's enough teams out there that his market isn't going to fall to 3/60 or something silly like that, but there's probably a sweet spot of AAV and years that scares off most of those teams that are keeping tabs but is still a fair bit less than what Darvish was expected to get in September.


If a majority of teams are lukewarm about the top pitcher on the market, what are we now looking at Arrieta getting and does a reunion become more possible? Not saying I want it, but wondering out loud.


meh
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:33 pm

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:36 pm

If he actually only gets four years, sign me up right now. That would be amazing. Comes off the books at the perfect time.
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Not saying it will happen, but the Cubs coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series does seem like the appropriate way to cap off this season and make the 30-for-30 even better.

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby JennieGarthAlgar » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:38 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:If he actually only gets four years, sign me up right now. That would be amazing. Comes off the books at the perfect time.


But theres also a chance he gets 10 years!
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:39 pm

David wrote:

This would be amazing
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby UK » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:41 pm

If they can get Darvish at a 4yr deal with a team option for 5, possibly with a player option after 2, I would be ecstatic.

I don't know if it's age discrimination or the Cubs have in-house medical concerns, but there's been no interest in Arrieta.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:45 pm

UK wrote:If they can get Darvish at a 4yr deal with a team option for 5, possibly with a player option after 2, I would be ecstatic.

I don't know if it's age discrimination or the Cubs have in-house medical concerns, but there's been no interest in Arrieta.


Arrieta isn't much older than Yu, though. Like, by months.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby UK » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:51 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:
UK wrote:If they can get Darvish at a 4yr deal with a team option for 5, possibly with a player option after 2, I would be ecstatic.

I don't know if it's age discrimination or the Cubs have in-house medical concerns, but there's been no interest in Arrieta.


Arrieta isn't much older than Yu, though. Like, by months.


Meh, I don't know why I always think Arrieta is older than what he really is.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby champaignchris » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:52 pm

One thing that might make the Cubs less inclined to sign Arrieta is that I believe his 5 and 10 rights would kick in the second year of any deal they sign with him.

Signing an aging pitcher is scary enough without signing one you might not be able to move as his skills diminish.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:53 pm

I really doubt he settles for 4 years. The whole reason teams are soft on him is cap implications, so I'd guess he still gets six but maybe he settles for a lower AAV.

Coming into the winter he was expected to get Jon Lester money. He's probably still gonna get it, but if he doesnt his deal will probably look more like Cueto's deal, six years at lower AAV with an opt out, than a shorter high aav deal like Cespedes.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:08 pm

Bertz wrote:I really doubt he settles for 4 years. The whole reason teams are soft on him is cap implications, so I'd guess he still gets six but maybe he settles for a lower AAV.

Coming into the winter he was expected to get Jon Lester money. He's probably still gonna get it, but if he doesnt his deal will probably look more like Cueto's deal, six years at lower AAV with an opt out, than a shorter high aav deal like Cespedes.


The luxury tax difference between 6/130 and 4/100(or 6/150) isn't all that great. The teams that are hesitant to give a 25M AAV aren't going to be sprinting to offer 20M with a longer duration.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:43 pm

Re-upping Arrieta would be boring. Signing Darvish would not. This offseason needs less boring. QED
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:45 pm

Also going the Darvish route over Arrieta nets us the draft pick, which isn't all that great but still a little something extra.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:46 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Re-upping Arrieta would be boring. Signing Darvish would not. This offseason needs less boring. QED


ya plus darvish is better
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:49 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:Also going the Darvish route over Arrieta nets us the draft pick, which isn't all that great but still a little something extra.

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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby David » Tue Dec 19, 2017 7:55 pm

i keep wanting things to happen in this thread but instead that stupid star wars thread keeps moving
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:01 pm

yu were the chosen one
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Banedon » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:03 pm

My the force be with Yu.
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby Bobson Dugnutt » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:04 pm

these aren't the droids yu're looking for
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Re: The Yu Darvish Thread

Postby ConstableRabbit » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:08 pm

Darvish Yu a Merry Christmas
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